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Neil Howe: "The Fourth Turning Has Arrived"

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity blog,

In 1996, demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe published the book The Fourth Turning. This study of generational cycles ("turnings") in America revealed predictable social trends that recur throughout history, and warned of a coming crisis (a "fourth turning") based on this research.

Fourth turnings are defined by disorder and great changes brought on by a breakdown of the systems and operating principles that dominated the prior three turnings.

Our society has entered a fourth turning (consisting of the twenty-year periods leading up to and out of it immediately.)


It is a season you have to move through before you are born again -- so to speak -- as a society, and regain institutional confidence. You have to go through a crucible to get there.


I think the fourth turning started -- probably, if I were to date it now -- in 2008: the realigning election in that year of Barack Obama against John McCain. And, obviously, simultaneously with that, as we all recall, an epic, historic crash of the global economy from which we still have not recovered.


We are sort of hobbling along in kind of a low-earth orbit, with continued high unemployment and excess capacity -- not just in the United States, but around the world. And, of course, all the rules of economic policy seem broken and lie in fragments on the floor. People are wondering what the heck do we do in this new era. 

Each of the generational cohorts living within this turning (e.g. Boomers, Gen X, Millennials) have roles to play.

This is a period when, in each of these turnings, each generation is moving in their new phase of life. Boomers are beginning to retire, they are beginning to redefine the senior phase of life. X’s are beginning to assume mid-life roles as the dominant parent generation and leaders. These are people born in the ‘60s and ‘70s. And, Millennials are fully beginning to come of age and redefine young adulthood. And, meanwhile, a very small generation is just beginning to come on stream, which remembers nothing before 2008.


We can already see these generational divisions forming, and it is interesting how each generation is to some extent defined by the thing they have, they just have no memory of, they just barely have no memory of (e.g., Boomers are defined by the World War II that even the oldest of them cannot remember).

History gives us patterns that predict how these generational archetypes will collaborate, compete and collide with one another as we enter into crisis. Understanding these in advance will give us a big advantage on the types of policies and solutions most likely to yield success. And we sorely need these, as the problems we're heading into have no easy answers:

There are patterns here which we recognize, and it is very important not to have historically amnesia. To look back and see where we have been, see where we are going, and more importantly, to understand the dynamics behind these social trends have familiar parallels. We just need to have the historical imagination to look far enough backwards and forward to see where else they have happened or to see where they possibly will happen again.


I am nervous. I am nervous about the future right now. I think we have a lot more deep issues, deep crises to save in the economy. I am also very nervous about what I see geopolitically.


We cannot possibly afford the government we have promised ourselves. And, that will be a painful process of deleveraging, and it is not just deleveraging the explicit debt that we have already actually formally borrowed, it is all the implicit debt. And, I think we will deal with it, because we have no other choice.


But, my point is this: No one simply solves a terrible problem on a sunny day when they can afford at least for the time being to look the other way. Problems like that are faced when people have no other choice, and it is a really grim day. And, it is white-knuckle time and horrible things are happening with markets around the world, or horrible things are happening, at least historically, we have seen that geopolitically around the world. And, that is when people are forced to act.  

Strauss and Howe's research provides another lens through which to view how the next twenty years will be remarkably different from life as we've been used to. It's one worth looking through.

Click the image below to link to Chris Martenson's site and listen to his interview with Neil Howe (60m:25s):


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Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:26 | 3685145 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

So let's get on with it already...many of us are growing weary of the constant assualt from every direction, especially the .gov.


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:28 | 3685147 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Difficult, repetetive and boring read - but great info!

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:34 | 3685162 espirit
espirit's picture

Ever increasing subsidy of the poor, and .gov will print until it pisses blood.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:44 | 3685191 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Well, it is already pissing blood... it remains to be seen for how long, or how many will bleed out.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 23:40 | 3685563 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Cue the bashing of the old folks.  It's inevitable in dividing and conquering.  Wait for it....

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 23:48 | 3685573 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Too bad we spent all the money. Mankind is incapable of seeing far beyond the present.

Western was nice while it existed.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:27 | 3685620 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

I think the turnings are just cyclical manifestations of the Idiocracy Effect.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 08:59 | 3686411 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture



"This study of generational cycles ...  revealed predictable social trends that recur throughout history"


Right. Predictable in hindsight. Gimme a break.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 01:01 | 3685654 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

" We cannot possibly afford the government we have promised ourselves." That is plain wrong. Missing the forest for the trees. We could easily afford it; it is the systemic inefficiency of a profit-seeking parasitic economy which sucks out the lifeblood of a productivity such that we could easily provide abundance for all. That and, of course, the mindset of scarcity itself, whereas infected individuals fail to see the abundance surrounding them and actually destroy abundance by the endless dissatisfaction which always seeks to appropriate and consume more for oneself. But this cannot be understood from within that mindset or, as Einstein put it, a problem cannot be resolved from the same level of consciousness that created it.

The over-automation of production would not be a problem but rather abundance-generating, if that excess production were seen as a fruit to benefit all. In a post-industrial world which needs employ only a bare fraction of the workforce to provide for the needs of all, the assumption that everyone needs a work-related revenue stream - when productive work positions, as opposed to services-related or artificial-consumption ineffectual make-work, have become too rare for everybody to secure one - that assumption is what keeps us back collectively rather than harnessing the huge amount of energy of the floating workforce for creative, productive purposes.

As the Invisible Committee stated in their 2007 "The Coming Insurrection":
"The series of tasks that can't be delegated to automation form a nebulous cluster of jobs that, because they cannot be occupied by machines, are occupied by any old human - warehousemen, stock people, assembly line workers, seasonal workers, etc. This flexible, undifferentiated workforce that moves from one task to the next and never stays long in business can no longer even consolidate itself as a force, being outside the center of the production process and employed to plug the holes of what has not yet been mechanized, as if pulverized in a multitude of interstices. The temp is the figure of a worker who is no longer a worker, who no longer has a trade - but only abilities that he sells where he can - and shos very availability is also a kind of work.

On the margins of this workforce that is effective and necessary for the functioning of the machine, is a growing majority that has become superfluous, that is certainly useful to the flow of production but not much else, which introduces the risk that, in its idleness, it will set about sabotaging the machine. The menace of a general demobilization is the specter that haunts the present system of production. There is a serious risk that we will end up finding a [creative, non-system supporting] "job" in our idleness. This floating population must somehow be kept occupied. But to this day we have not found a better disciplinary method than wages. It's therefore necessary to pursue the dismantling of "social gains" so that the most restless ones, those who will only surrender when faced with the alternative between dying of hunger or ztagnating in jail, are lured back to the bosom of wage-labor. The burgeoning slave trade in "personal services" must continue: cleaning, catering, massage, domestic nursing, prostitution, tutoring, therapy, psychological aid, etc. This is accompanied by a continual raising of the standards of security, hygiene, control, and culture, and by an accelerated recycling of fashions, all of which establish the artificial need for such services."

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 02:09 | 3685713 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

I see you haven't read Adam Smith. Wealth of nations, and reading history should shake you of your illusion.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:51 | 3686081 Professor Fate
Professor Fate's picture

Wealth of Nations should be required reading for everyone prior to picking up any welfare or entitlement check. (Ok, maybe the Cliff's Notes version in emergency cases).  As far as the Fourth Turning...this is an exceptional explanation of generational design and what many already know or feel but simple can't explain.  What is implied here, however, is that we can learn from the past, change this course, and reverse the trend.  In my opinion, the trend is irreversible.  We must go through the pain and cleansing effect of the fourth turning. As the Chinese have always said, "Wealth does not pass 3 generations".

Alan "Poopsie" Greenspan estimates that the current generation is only about 65% as productive as the "Boomers" they are replacing in the workplace.  I have no reason to argue that statistic as an employer who interviews and hires for my company.  In fact, the 65% figure is probably a little high.  Our educational system has completey collapsed (likely due to the unions) and a high school diploma is now a generally worthless piece of paper.  The point is, the effect on GDP will be staggering as the "texting" generation replaces the Boomers. 

There is nothing you can do to side track the Fourth Turning.  It is, in fact, already here and its like trying to stop water from flowing downhill.  While you can't rule out a great war, in our case, the Fourth Turning will likely be defined by a major economic collapse, much like the Great Depression of the 30's which defined the previous Fourth Turning.  Lessons will be learned as the necessary "cleansing" takes place.  I am glad I am 64 and have the tools and skills to see it through.  I would hate to be 17 with a resume of available skills that only includes texting, sexting, and an in depth knowledge of "The History of Androids".   

Fate the Magnificent

"Push the Button, Max"  

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:52 | 3686087 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

The first thing you need to understand is that profits create wealth.

The second thing you need to understand is that those automations decrease the cost of goods so that all consumers can easily obtain more wealth.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 09:46 | 3686581 Short Change
Short Change's picture

This would be the innevitable outcome of humanity if left to its own devices. Einstein was a firm believer in the abundance of the Universe, and specifically in energy. Abundance of energy breeds abundance in almost every other consumable/produceable. In my own work I am constantly reminded of the fact that energy is everywhere, and the moment an endless (free) supply of energy is tapped, the "scarcity" of all things on the planet will seem arbitrary. I know this won't make sense to everyone, but this really is the root of oppression and the mechanism of the perpetuation of scarcity that prohibits humanity from turning the corner. Sadly, there is enough resistance to (and lack of understanding of) this paradigm shift that we may not get there anytime soon, and will instead return to the dark ages having to wait for the next Renaissance for enough people to accept abundance and allow it to manifest.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 03:12 | 3685719 imbtween
imbtween's picture

if I could +1 that 1x10^500 I would, and the only person who thinks I'm "old" is my 9 year old daughter. But - you nailed it. The gov will victimize every vulnerable class and blame it on another class, Same old same old.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:50 | 3685210 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

"Ever increasing subsidy of the" RICH, "and .gov will print until it pisses blood."

It is not the poor that are bankrupting us. It is the transfer of wealth from the middle class to the non-working uber-wealthy (and government "services", especially "defense").

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:59 | 3685237 espirit
espirit's picture

I don't dissagree.  The poor must be kept placated to prevent anarchy, which no doubt IS scheduled... as in future tense.

The question remains "where will the thiefs go for protection"?  Many will probably be dissappointed that there isn't room on the ark for them.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:29 | 3685316 CH1
CH1's picture

You are mistaking anarchy for chaos.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:55 | 3685368 espirit
espirit's picture

I was trying to be polite, but this is Fight Club - lol.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:42 | 3685464 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

I've read the book and agree with the logic, but...
It doesn't mention the takeover of our government from within by the fascist psychopaths. It has become a dream world of insane scandals and hypocrisy, where coworkers are stuck in normalcy bias. "Truth is treason in a house of lies."

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:02 | 3685584 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Truth is treason in the empire of lies.

Ron Paul never put it better. 

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:28 | 3685618 Lore
Lore's picture

Our thoughts run parallel. The Top studies and anticipates these transition periods. Mass manipulation is an advanced science. Between ages, oligarchy works to pre-empt, deter, postpone and hijack enlightenment. Century after century, old myths get recycled. 

Normalcy bias extends to awareness and understanding of Big Brother and instruments of oppression.  Orwell wrote social commentary after WW2 in response to visible abuse of power during his generation.  Public interest in his work is surging nowadays.  But how many new readers make the connection between Big Brother and the new Big Green Brother?  Oligarchy senses disillusionment, crafts and markets a new Solution before the next generation even knows what questions to ask.  The Agenda 21 "sustainability" movement pushes New Big Lies in service of the same old psychopathic meat grinder, this time ostensibly to Save The Planet.  Marketed as redemption, evil reinvents itself for a new and better-brainwashed generation.  

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 01:50 | 3685698 Spanky
Spanky's picture

The Top studies and anticipates these transition periods. Mass manipulation is an advanced science. -- Lore

Then it is time to act "unexpectedly" and against conditioning.

Challenge the legitimacy of the government directly (and non-violently) at the ballot box. Vote to withdraw your consent to be governed by these corrupt bastards. Pit their politicians against the plain language of the Constitution. No Candidates, No Consent.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 02:04 | 3685711 Lore
Lore's picture

Elections are another con. To vote is to concede. Should we compromise all at once, or in small bites?

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 02:53 | 3685727 Spanky
Spanky's picture

Apparently you know little about the Constitution. Let me ask a simple question -- do you consent to what your government is doing right now?

[Edit] Voting is not the con. The elite's twin parties are the con. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 01:34 | 3690092 Lore
Lore's picture

Point taken. Hint: I'm not from around here.  ;-)

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:03 | 3685245 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

It is both.  The extremes are subsidized while the hard working middle is ignored and pressed for more that it cannot deliver.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:42 | 3685341 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture


Remember that in most societies throughout most of history the balance of power was defined by a small number of rich, a larger number of poor and just enough "middle class" to service the rich.  I fear we are devolving back into that model in the US.  Our large "middle class" nothing more than an historical anomaly, driven by unique events, not to be repeated anytime soon.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:33 | 3685628 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

I work in the computer industry. I read an opinion piece in the IEEE magazine in about 1995 where the author said that computers would be maintained by the middle class to help the upper class control the lower class. I half believed it then but see it as absolutely true now. The control is both direct (data bases, facial recognition, etc.)  and indirect (circuses ala porn, games, gambling, etc.).

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:55 | 3686096 MonsterBox
MonsterBox's picture

Bingo!  If the 20-30 year-olds were to unplug from their gaming, porn and gambling (& TV) long enough, there'd be EU/Brazilian-style "protests" overnight, something well beyond the OWS festivals...

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:07 | 3685594 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

The hard working middle is competing directly in the worldwide labor glut. This has produced stagnating wages. Central bank printing makes each earned dollar less valuable.

Eventually, wages will approach equilibrium, but as long as the middle and less-than-middle keep replicating themselves in excess of today's anemic growth rate, the situation will persist. 

To correct excess applicants per job opening, increase jobs or decrease applicants. The second part is the one workers control. The former requires waiting for the elected or appointed to care.


Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:53 | 3686093 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I'm just going to leave this right here.....



Mon, 06/24/2013 - 12:34 | 3687430 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Our blood.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:22 | 3685295 RabidLemming
RabidLemming's picture

just like their book

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:13 | 3685951 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture


 "We cannot possibly afford the government we have promised ourselves."

The banksters stole 97% of the purchasing power of our earnings and savings over the last century. They set up 'social programs' to prevent backlash, encouraged two paycheck families (to keep up with the loss in real earnings), and off shored jobs overseas. All this was done using paid off whore politicians and bureaucrats. 'Government' has been nothing but a mechanism to help with the theft.

'Austerity' and 'paying off our debts' is another fraud, another lie.

How much better off would most people be today if 97% of their wealth & earnings hadn't been stolen ?  How come few articles seem to mention this fact ?

This guy writing about 'turnings' may be well intentioned . . . but he completely misses the point. This is like so many authors who come up with their own pet copywrited phrase for book marketing purposes.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:32 | 3685155 knukles
knukles's picture

Just because one is weary of the assault does not mean its pace will change.  The decline of empire takes time.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:35 | 3685165 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

And we are following the "Declining Empire" play book to perfection.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:25 | 3685307 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

There is no 'Fourth Turning'... There is only the Bernank...

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:41 | 3685340 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

There is no Dana. There is only Zool.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:59 | 3685379 Sub Dude
Sub Dude's picture

+1 for Ghostbusters reference. Are you the keymaster?

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:26 | 3685438 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

OK ~ She's a dog...

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 04:32 | 3685812 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Best line in the movie. Second? "Okay. Important safety tip there. Thanks [Harold Ramos]."

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:04 | 3685963 August
August's picture

Actually... it's more of a guideline.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 08:12 | 3686178 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's true... This man has no penis...

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 12:36 | 3687441 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Whenever anyone asks if you are a god, say "Yes."

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:36 | 3685169 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

The weariness comes from not seeing any significant increase or decrease in the onslaught. As I've said many times it will be a slow slide into oblivion.

Although, the whole NSA thing has the propensity to unravel very quickly given the recent turn of events.

This could change the dynamic a bit and will be interesting to watch it unfold.


Mon, 06/24/2013 - 03:13 | 3685710 Spanky
Spanky's picture

Why not carry the fight to them? Waiting simply gives them the initiative. Waiting is what we've been doing -- how's that working?

Why not challenge TPTB at the ballot box with a campaign designed to attract voters to the polls, not to vote for their candidates, but challenge their legitimacy to govern? Vote to withdraw your consent to be governed.

No Candidates, No Consent

Much rather be in the thick of the fight, if a fight be coming.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 04:34 | 3685814 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

What would happen if Edward Snowden was elected President?

That might be fun.

He certainly has a better chance than Harry Brown.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 23:26 | 3685540 kito
kito's picture

Knucks....not more than 10 years....

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:07 | 3685965 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Very true.  And people should welcome every extra day they have to better prepare themselves. Build supplies, skills, and relationships.  They should welcome every moment they have (in relative peace) to spend with those they care about.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:46 | 3685348 Midasking
Midasking's picture

We will not deal with it ever... the paper inflation is the system that will be defended by the people that own it and control it.  They have no interest in you.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:17 | 3685417 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Ever is a long time - I'm taking the under on that.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:28 | 3685146 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Thanks.  Your theory is ground truthed.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:30 | 3685151 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Smaller government. Plain and simple. This nanny state is too
Expensive. Cull the largesse.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:50 | 3685201 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I agree, but what we need is limited Govt. power.  Modern technology allows for a smaller yet more oppressive Govt.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:53 | 3685218 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Limited, localized and less.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:56 | 3685229 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Yeah, but right now it is growing LARGER and more oppressive!


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:00 | 3685238 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

"The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers ..."

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:13 | 3685606 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I think all of these ideas are great [albeit, a little 'touchy/feely']... Less clients, less money, more personal attention... Y'all need to take it to an all-night printer shop & put a nice 'CATCHER IN THE RYE' cover on it...


That's how you become Great man!

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:02 | 3685241 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Size and oppression tend to go hand in hand, but we can still lose our rights to a small sized Govt.  If people don't accept the responsibility that comes with liberty, a Govt can be running on a shoestring and we would still be oppressed.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:16 | 3685279 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

What "we" need are mass arrests, trials, convictions and public executions. Then, and only then can the reset button be hit.

Defunding the following wouldn't hurt either

Ablolish the Federal Reserve
Cut military spending in half.
End illegal wars & occupations/bases.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:22 | 3685426 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I think we will be getting those mass arrests, trials, convictions and public executions, just not of the folks you think deserve it. 

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 23:47 | 3685571 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

double post.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:14 | 3685270 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

IR, we are not getting a smaller government, as the Western governments have already been effectively taken over in a silent coup a few years ago.  Via Club Fed and the respective CBs of said countries.  We are headed back to Feudalism.  Perhaps American style, a la born-again Manifest Destiny.

But you may be right about the "culling" - except that it'll take on a different form than most expect.  Can you say Agenda 21?

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:16 | 3685294 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

You may be right on many points, but I see massive push back on 21. Who the Hell wants to live in a urban Hell a la Soylent Green. That will not be readily acceptable. What I want and what I get are often different. Interesting times indeed.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:18 | 3685608 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's more likely to be REVERSE 'Agenda 21'... More like 'Panem' [in the Hunger Games], where the slaves all work on the different districts to supply goods to the 'elite' in the big city... Oh wait!

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:53 | 3685650 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

New York New York!
It's a helluva town!

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 02:08 | 3685712 Spanky
Spanky's picture

Starve the beast...

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:34 | 3685152 knukles
knukles's picture

Try explaining this to those enraptured within the matrix.
It does not compute.

Caution, may result in unfounded personal attacks upon one's character in an effort to demean and discredit the messenger

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:36 | 3685171 espirit
espirit's picture

@ knuks

Thanks for the larger print, much better.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:54 | 3685224 knukles
knukles's picture


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:52 | 3685364 Hulk
Hulk's picture

thanks !!!

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:37 | 3685460 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

audacter calumniare, semper aliquid haeret

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:31 | 3685154 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture




This one will be ugly.


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:33 | 3685158 knukles
knukles's picture

Hpw ugly will it be?

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:38 | 3685176 espirit
espirit's picture

Uglier than a "feinswine".

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 05:04 | 3685842 ebear
ebear's picture

Coyote ugly!

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:33 | 3685157 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

Oh, Great

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:34 | 3685163 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Sounds like more sophistic nonsense to me. Then again Social Engineering is en vogue these days and narrative and perception management is big business.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:39 | 3685180 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Actually these guys are legit. I have been reading their stuff for years. They key when reading it is not to take the negative stuff personally. It's all about generalizations, but as a whole generation they tend to be spot on.

But, nevertheless, you don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:50 | 3685213 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I know which way the wind is blowing without them. This whole generational thing is a bit overblown though. The only thing I have to say is that on a whole the Baby-Boomers have probably been the most corrupted and delusion generation of humans to ever exist. This is their mess, and they are pushing it onto the rest of the world and pissing everyone else off.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:18 | 3685277 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

The counterculture generation is running the show right now.  Have you seen pictures of Bill and Hillary in their youth?  From flower power to hippie mafia.  It's a book actually.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:11 | 3685257 graneros
graneros's picture

Maggie comes fleet foot
Face full of black soot
Talkin' that the heat put
Plants in the bed but
The phone's tapped anyway
Maggie says that many say
They must bust in early May
Orders from the DA
Look out kid
Don't matter what you did
Walk on your tip toes
Don't try, 'No Doz'
Better stay away from those
That carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose
Watch the plain clothes
You don't need a weather man
To know which way the wind blows.

Bob Dylan - Subterranean Homesick Blues
Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:39 | 3685463 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture him off!

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:35 | 3685166 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Well, my entrails just did a turning, reading this headline.  When a government begins to actively fear its citizenry, yep.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:47 | 3685202 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

What makes you think they didn't fear the public before? Unless you think the militarization of the police and all of that ammo the DHS has cornered is because they want to "protect us".

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:59 | 3685234 knukles
knukles's picture

They didn't tell us that.
They didn't tell us any reason they're doing this shit, come to think of it....


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:06 | 3685399 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Nidstyles; this is the most obvious I've seen it.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:35 | 3685167 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"And, it is white-knuckle time and horrible things are happening with markets around the world, or horrible things are happening, at least historically, we have seen that geopolitically around the world. And, that is when people are forced to act. "

Yes just ask Hank tanks on the street Paulson.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:37 | 3685173 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Think US Revolution, Civil War, and WWII. Those happened the last times the fourth turning came about.

The Millennials are playing the role of the Greatest Generation.

That alone should make us nervous.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:40 | 3685181 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

It will be like re-living reconstruction, only better prepared this time.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 04:43 | 3685824 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it." (Or words to that effect.)

Were he alive today, I am sure Jorges Santayana would instead have written: "Those who never learned history are doomed to repeat it." (Thank you, Teachers' Associations.)


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:01 | 3685240 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:28 | 3685315 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Because unfortunately most millenials have been indoctrinated by school system of the 90's and political correctness.  People are just now waking up to this and taking their kids out of the system.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:14 | 3685411 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

My millenial son is being prepared to play his role in the next greatest generation - part conscious direction on my part but it is also how the cycle goes.  We will have some fine folks to pick up the standard when the time comes.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:31 | 3685442 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

The next "greatest generation" doesn't mean they're "great" or going to be "great", maybe just the opposite.  What it means is that the generation will be cannon fodder in the next big war.  Just to clarify.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 23:52 | 3685570 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

My point:  if you read Strauss and Howe's book you will note that the Millenials are expected to play the role of the WW2 Greatest Generation in this "fourth turning" crisis.  And this means doing yeoman work in pulling our fat out of the fire on the front lines of the crisis.  Apparently "Mad Arrow" hasn't read the book.    

And in my son and his peers I see some signs for hope that they may come thru and fulfill this destiny despite some efforts of "the Babylon system" and its propaganda to divert them.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:21 | 3685610 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

We need more people like your son, a lot more.  He turned out good because you cared enough to teach him right from wrong.  An awake parent makes all the difference especially if your mate is on the same page with you.  You should adopt some if you can, the more well raised citizens we have the better :)

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 23:14 | 3685520 samsara
samsara's picture

Well, then match it up to a few more graphs.    Ah, It's Winter...


A good view of the Kondratieff Wave.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:38 | 3685177 theliberalliberal
theliberalliberal's picture

Problems like that are faced when people have no other choice, and it is a really grim day. And, it is white-knuckle time and horrible things are happening with markets around the world, or horrible things are happening, at least historically, we have seen that geopolitically around the world. And, that is when people are forced to act.  


Unfortunately, the "wont somebody just do something" mentalilty that will arise will be worse than doing nothing.  We may well have a global awakening.  Will it be the 99.9% against the 0.1% that bribes, subsidises, squanders.   or the 51% in the cart against the 49% pulling it.  Better wear a potato sack when the SHTF, and tell the rioters that you are just squatting in the house you own.

Our problem is we never did nothing.  It is all the something post 2007/2008 that has made the problem worse.


Mon, 06/24/2013 - 02:40 | 3685721 Spanky
Spanky's picture



What do you mean the "wont somebody just do something" mentalilty that will arise?

Just read ZH comments -- that sentiment is obvious now. This thread alone has writers waiting and watching and advising others to do the same (with the exception of personal prepartions).

Problem is I agree that is worse than doing nothing

A global awakening may occur, but if we do not present an alternative vision of the future and a strategic path leading there, any awakening which might occur stands a significant chance of being co-opted or misdirected. Consider the recent examples of both the Tea Party and Occupy.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 04:48 | 3685827 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Tiresome stupidity about the Tea Party.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:34 | 3685907 Spanky
Spanky's picture

Which Tea Party?


The only two questions that matter are:

Do you consent to what your government is doing?

If not, what do you plan to do?

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:43 | 3685187 Shad_ow
Shad_ow's picture

We didn't promise ourselves a bloated, over-reaching government. Corrupt politicians, buying votes for power and stealing wealth did that.  Many of us warned and rallied against it but could not convince the weak minded masses it would lead to failure. 

Perhaps we are guilty of allowing it to come to the point of no return because there was no stopping it without violence.  Now there is no stopping it.  There willl probably still be violence but the failure must occur for the renewal to begin.  Be ready. May God help us all.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:06 | 3685249 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

DeTocqueville said when politicians realized they could bribe people with their own money, the republic would diminish.  He was so right.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:04 | 3685394 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

DT was right, just not clear on how.  Now we know - fractional reserve fiat.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:03 | 3685388 Blano
Blano's picture

Those politicians didn't get there on their own. "We" (excluding me) voted people in who would give more, more, more.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:45 | 3685192 Stimulati
Stimulati's picture

It is more likely we will go to affordable single payer health care than that we will dump Medicare and let old people die. The crisis in the 4th Turning will be global warming and will hit about 2020.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:57 | 3685231 F22
F22's picture

Bet you a monster box of AGE's that "global warming" has nothing to do with it....

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:06 | 3685400 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Check out the ENA Ribbon at the edge of the solar system - heliopause.  What does Capt. Kirk say when it's time to amp up the shields?

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:23 | 3685614 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture



Well it was about time somebody brought some comedy to this thread...

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 20:45 | 3685193 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The inability, purposeful or not, to solve major problems doesn't exactly prepare you for a flourishing and successful finish.  Kicking the can down the road does NOT count as a warmup....

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:03 | 3685244 knukles
knukles's picture

Kicking the can down the road is the solution to the problem as the problems are unsolvable and politicians need problems to 'solve" to justify their existence and growth of the Leviathan from which they wean....

nudging can with toe, giggling

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:07 | 3685239 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Just for fun, in the spirit of the article, I shall try again...

the dearth of emotional intelligence is the foundation of "the Turnings."

And because we don't get it (why would that be?), it becomes "turnings" in the first place.

If you zoom out and look at us, motion sickness sets in.


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:14 | 3685273 Inspector Bird
Inspector Bird's picture

Seriously?  EI?

I've been having to take classes in EI because my employer considers it 'valuable'.  Do you know how easy it is to fake what they want to hear?

EI is crap.  It's a made up concept for people who lack real skill, and in lacking any real skills, they seek to determine why they fail so often.  They blame others, ostensibly the ones who lack "EI". 

I've been told I'll be a better manager if I have a better Emotional IQ.  Really?  I've been one of the most productive managers throughout my career, and the people with the high "EI" have muddled along on my back forever.  Now suddenly they have more power because they convinced some lily-livered idiot in HR that they were onto something.

Care about people?  Sure, no problem.  But create systems that support people who suck at what they do?  That's what all this EI crap is doing.  The spirit of EI is fine, it's the application that is seriously out of touch with reality.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:26 | 3685308 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"The spirit of EI is fine, it's the application that is seriously out of touch with reality."

You expose everything that you don't get, very efficiently, in one sentence.

Thank you.

Comments such as yours are what make me think comments such as mine are a worthy cause.


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:44 | 3685345 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

There was a book written about people like you. Took down an entire country with your blather and bullshit. it'll happen in realty too. Unfortunately I can't remember the authors name. Oh well, who is John Galt?

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:17 | 3685415 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Fodder, and cowardice.

Help yourself -- you can be the author, too.



Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:41 | 3685637 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I gotcha EI right here.....

{grabs balls}

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 10:56 | 3686932 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Useless eater.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:05 | 3685246 Colonel
Colonel's picture

"This is a period when, in each of these turnings, each generation is moving in their new phase of life. Boomers are beginning to retire, they are beginning to redefine the senior phase of life. X’s are beginning to assume mid-life roles as the dominant parent generation and leaders. These are people born in the ‘60s and ‘70s. And, Millennials are fully beginning to come of age and redefine young adulthood. And, meanwhile, a very small generation is just beginning to come on stream, which remembers nothing before 2008"

That just means there's hope for the future as all of the systemic corruption and hypocrisy is being held in place by and enforced by boomer "leadership". Go Snowden!



Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:16 | 3685275 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

So then, you are excited that you timed your birth well, because that places you into a birth-order of something to look forward to?

Or in your excitement, did you miss the cycle/turning part altogether, which debunks your "boomer" thing?

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:23 | 3685299 Colonel
Colonel's picture

None of the above asswipe.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:29 | 3685320 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Good show, Colonel.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:20 | 3685289 viator
viator's picture

Daenerys Palin to the rescue.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:26 | 3685621 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Chelsea Clinton, followed by the Bush twins, then... whatever the fuck Chewbacca & Wiggles little offspring are named...


Gotta keep the 'Columbia' version of the Hapsburg Dynasty rollin'...

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 04:53 | 3685832 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

"Malaria" and "Sushi," you racist twat.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:22 | 3685297 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Strange how in a Chris Martenson production, energy and resource constraints never get mentioned as an impediment to a continuation of the grand cycle...

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:46 | 3685351 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Those are the field on which the game is played, they aren't the players. The field determines the tactics, the players determine the score.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 21:49 | 3685358 spinone
spinone's picture

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 01:47 | 3685694 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

literally loled

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:13 | 3685403 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'm not sure but I think he said we would win the war against Barak Obama.

But then he said the IMF and world bank would be running the World Government and we would find unity in submission.

My ears fell off after that and still have difficulty listening.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:11 | 3685405 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

"We cannot possibly afford the government we have promised ourselves."

this statement is proof of the idiocy of americans - their abject foolish fucktarded iq and common sense.....barry goldwater was decimated electorally in 1964 for making these kinds of statements when one of jfk's murderer's swept into office on promises of the opposite....yes i know that there were nuances to the debate and social justice colored the debate, but at rock bottom it was the conflict of yes and no because the promises carried a price tag which could never be sustained - something which he and many americans realized then.

goldwater went on to make peace with the nazis, but that is another story.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:18 | 3685421 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Cycles I can believe in.  That cycles, cosmic/biological/anthropological etc. align with such trivial things as US elections?  No, not really.

Here's a cycle.

1. There's a terrible ponzi.  It collapses and vast amounts of phantom wealth evaporates.

2. Victims swear - never again will we fall for that.  After a big struggle, prosperity returns.

3. Everyone who knew the crazy ponzi story from long ago died*, happily or otherwise.

4. Fraudulent currency returns - and here's the cycle part - Go back to step 1.


*Some lines are more serious then others about generational knowledge.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 05:20 | 3685854 ebear
ebear's picture

Not bad, but you'll have to fluff it up some if you want a book deal:)

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:27 | 3685439 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Pretty good though. Just not straight forward and lack of talk of prosecution of FRAUD and the siphoning of wealth into the Military Industrial Complex. In other words no talk of prosecution of the elite criminals of the world.

Sun, 06/23/2013 - 22:58 | 3685492 Monk
Monk's picture

The problem isn't just affording government but having to deal with trillions of dollars in financial risks.


Sun, 06/23/2013 - 23:12 | 3685518 reader2010
reader2010's picture

I remember in the book the authors predicated the Civil War 2.0 around 2030, and was wondering whether or not they talked about that in the vid since I haven't watched it yet?

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 00:43 | 3685640 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Proof is in the movies nowadays.

Here's one example: Red 2

Watch the Trailer of Red 2 and you'll see the generational change.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 02:34 | 3685714 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

Listening near 28:55 onward, I hear something from Howe that really syncs up for me (my folks were born ~1960).

"If extended family life becomes much closer over the next couple of decades, this could hugely ease and relieve pressure on third-party entitlement payment programs and allow families to deal with resource issues internally."


I know my folks will need a helluva lot of help in retirement. As Howe notes earlier in the podcast, milennials actually have really good relationships with their boomer parents. Now I do enjoy being hundreds of miles away from my folks, but you bet your ass they'll be moving in with me when this is all said and done. My parents are so full of love. I wish to assist them in aging gracefully, not miserably -- and I see this sentiment all over the milennial generation, even in the not-quite-there-yet kids, even if some of us are still waiting to sit on their pitch so to speak.

The entitlement programs will pass. Economies, governments, and families will become far more local in scope. And when the time is right, we'll get it done. And I realize that my future kids will likely be the new boomer-turning (it's gonna be a bit before I build my family), so I'll do my best to be the right dad.

Please don't give up on us, guys.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 03:18 | 3685757 kurt
kurt's picture

um, bullshit?

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 05:31 | 3685860 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

Yes indeed. 

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 06:31 | 3685919 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

Mr Down-arrow you should read the survey of Chinese students concerning the Snowdon leaks. They soiund like the Boomers you think have turned into one big irrevevancy. Stop trying to abstract from your so-called data and instead look at reality.

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 05:53 | 3685883 lolman
lolman's picture

I have been making a similar study. The periods I am working with are 22-years long in Average

I call them "Periods of Modernity"

1776-92 Beginning of Modernity, with the creation of USA and the French Revolution
1792-14 1st French Republic / 1st Empire
1814-30 Bourbon Restauration
1830-48 July Monarchy
1848-70 2nd French Republic / 1st Empire (Spring of the Nations)
1870-98 Gilded Era / French 3rd Republic
1898-18 Progressive Era (Age of Imperialism)
1918-45 Interwar Period
1945-64 Affluent Society (Cold War 1)
1964-91 Great Society (Cold War 2)
1991-??? Age of Globalization

I believe that Modernity will end with the dissolution of USA and the coming of Peak Oil, after that we may see something like "The New Dark Ages"

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 06:46 | 3685934 redd_green
redd_green's picture

"We cannot possibly afford the government we have promised ourselves. "    Which part?  The full 10% of the budged spent on welfare?   Or 700 billion PLUS everything the CIA spends on te war machine?     This article is mostly propaganda.     Who setup the monetary system to support a 800 dollar a year trade deficit that allowed 50,000 factories in the USA to be bull dozed, Americans fired, and those jobs scattered around the globe?  

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:25 | 3685997 esum
esum's picture

Time to start cutting back on fraud and waste in the government at all levles. That should cut spending by 40% off the bat, using medicare as a benchmark. Since the consumer is 70% of our "economy" the savings could be used to pay off the national debt and reduce taxes letting he consumer revive the economy. This will never happen because the politicians will not permit it. The alternative is a torrent of blood in the streets. There is no middle road. That is why the intense NSA/ other agency spy progams, the MRAP's, the 1.6 billion rounds of hollow point, the domestic drones, the open border programs, the free lunch/obamaphone/obamacare and the violation of the 2nd amendment. It is very clear what is going to happen.  

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 07:44 | 3686046 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

Time settles all scores.  Some years ago, late in the evening, I was walking the Appian Way. There was a slight breeze that bore the remnant of whispers of ancient intrigues.   The plotters and the planners, the vanity and the hubris have all been swept into the dust bin of history.   The interactions of billions of people cannot be controlled.  To believe they can be is the presumption of knowledge.


The sad thing is those that would rule our lives are driven by egos that far exceed their cognitive abilities. They seriously think they are in control.  They plan and scheme and build their Maginot Lines while the future is rushing in on them at light speed.


The herd feels it.  They can see it in the failed businesses, rotting cities and bankrupt states.  Entropy will not be denied. The collapse is on schedule.


Mon, 06/24/2013 - 08:24 | 3686243 jerry685
jerry685's picture

Read the book Generation's ....older and acurate...

the 4 cycles of the 4 prediictable as a clock for the last 3 or 4 hundread years....

old enough many of it's predictions or projections from these cycles have already come true...


Ineviatable leading to global conflict...everyone wants the last piece of pie...and they will fight over it.

The young today eqate to the GI generation....

From John Kenedy to George senior all served in WW2...

After the battle they lead and set the precedent for a long time..

A great renosonce follows a terible correction... is coming

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 09:30 | 3686518 Geruda
Geruda's picture

If peoples are reading books about histories they will be having no surprises when unthinkable terriblenesses are happening to almost all peoples everywhere.  The history of mans is being a non-ending history of many peoples who are suffering and peoples who the life they are having if it was the life people are having today they would be thinking they are in hell.  The times that we have been having that are good for many peoples in this country is like a pause that is very small in a long stretch of time having many peoples who are screaming because of the horrible experience of living.  When the Romans were collapsing in the 3rd and 4th century during one 37 year long time they were having 35 different emperors and almost every new emperor they were having because of assassinations.  The collapse we will be having will not make anybody happy to be saying I told you so.   

Mon, 06/24/2013 - 10:32 | 3686816 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"While you can't rule out a great war, in our case, the Fourth Turning will likely be defined by a major economic collapse, much like the Great Depression of the 30's which defined the previous Fourth Turning.  Lessons will be learned as the necessary "cleansing" takes place."


The lessons were already known.  The SEC knew leverage above 12 to 1 was dangeous and gave the investment banks waivers anyway.   The banks themselves knew high leverage was dangerous and did it anyway.  Congress knew dismantling Glass Steagall shouldn't be done, but did it anyway.

Commoditiy futures modernization act had nothing to do with modernization and they knew it.

No one forgot any lessons to be re-leaned.  The restrictions in force at the time got in the way of the financial recklessness they wanted to pursue, so they got rid of the regulation or ignored it, such as Greenspan deliberately refused to regulate the banks lending standards, as he wanted a housing bubble.

A great war killing 10's of millions of people because of the recklessness of bankers and Wall Street.

The innocent die while the guilty go free.

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