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Housing Stocks Near Bear Market; Turn Red Year-To-Date
Maybe, just maybe, those pesky plunging lumber prices were on to something after all...
The PHLX Housing Index is -0.25% YTD and -18.75% from its May highs...
of course there's a simple explanation...
The collapse in lumber prices only exists because the housing shortage is so profound nobody wants to build anything. /spin
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 24, 2013
Charts: Bloomberg
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Mondays are a b*tch, aren't they?
I'm expecting a Nanex article today. You know it's coming.
long cardboard and 55 gal steel barrels
long "For Sale" signs.
this cant be right...i could you take u for a 15 min ride around me..there is more commercial and residential building on and around me.... on my mile and a half long used to be country road that used to have lots of trees. but no more.....my question that i cant find an answer to, is how and what kind of subsidies are they recieving. ...cause you may build it...... but nobody seems to be coming....
i don't see the need for a house. People are going to be needing to move around alot more in the coming years for a job...for family...even maybe for water and food.
So why lock into anything for 15, or even worse, for 30 years? That's crazy.?
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edges above 5% with Conor Sen noting Wells Fargo quoting an APR of 5.05% this morning. It wasn't long ago this had a 3-handle on it. Housing bulls say higher rates will lead to even more buying as panicked prospective purchasers rush to get in before the low-rate door shuts. Weekly mortgage applications - trending down of late - should continue to be of interest. Homebuilders ETF (XHB -3.5%).
That's 5.05% with near perfect credit and a solid job abd assets. otherwise, you're looking at 7.5% on up around here. And how odd for them to start asking for that ante-deluvian thing...a "down payment." I almost forgot what that means.
Doctor Lumber!
Delete
Now I feel like a genius for doing a 10yr cut on our ranch property in 2012. I warned my aunt this was coming.
Just 3D it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehnzfGP6sq4
got wood?
They just marched out Santelli with a trader to explain that everything is fine and that "there is a big rally on the back side of this selloff" and explained that rates will calm back down "once fundamentals kick back in"
Any of you who think Santelli, while as close as they get to reality, is not part of the theatre are not being honest with yourselves.
Santelli's job is to occasionally speak the truth so they can put him up when things collapse and say "see, we at CNBC told you to be careful." But the consistent message for now is that he's just a cranky guy who doesn't get the rally.
Once a trader, always a trader. Santelli would trade his mother for a profit if he could. All part of the show.
wait... I thought rates were up because they were pricing a re-recovery? Someone please get in touch with the broken-record spin-scratcher.
He makes for a good voice throwing red meat out there to the wolves giving appearance to some sort of objectivity, but in the end if he doesn't play ball he gets ejected from the game.
"...but in the end if he doesn't play ball he gets ejected from the game."
^^^THIS^^^
And so we ponder, 'why did they drag him out NOW?' Is it because everything is cool, or it is actually bad enough that they need to increase firepower? "Release the kraken", so to speak?
Fundamentals are kicking in. Hence the repricing back down to reality. Long way to go too.
Lumbering :
Move in a slow, heavy, awkward way: "a truck filled his mirror and lumbered past".
Hey missed me this time! Hint: reduce your debt load and you will be a smaller target for that "Lumbering" truck... And pick up some puts on XHB - oops down 10% since last Tuesday - missed that one, *mostly*!
Didn't they hear that housing is in a "recovery"?
Lol...Just last week the Home Builders Confidence Index hit a 7 year high.
Someone needs to explain to them the difference between hope and confidence...
Correction : ah this might be a correction lol
<----Great rotation from stocks to bonds
<----Great rotation from bonds to stocks
<--------- great rotation from stocks and bonds to cash.
<--------- margin call bitchez!
Touche...
United Healthcare and Microsoft the only stocks up so far today.
Hmmm...
Housing bubble #2 party over. Time for another leg down. All That QE just bought time and blew a lot of money.
"All That QE just bought time and blew a lot of money."
It also allowed the banks to clear a buttload of toxic "assets". Which of course was the original goal all along :-)
wish there were a short ETF for housing, I don't like to short individual stocks
You can short the ETF. XHB for example.
But but but! Prices can never go down! Impossibru.
In other news, wood furniture will be so much cheaper... excellent.
Could ZH post some Canadian bond spreads to see if it's affecting Canada too?
Has the "No shorting allowed...EVER!!!" sign been removed...?
Luckily the builders are "Bullish" MSM noted last week.
Not sure what all of it means but I haven't seen any reduction in wood costs. Many are claiming wood futures pricing is down because so many suppliers have been gearing up production for a housing surge predicted by politicians that has been slow to come about. Premature gratification i think. As far as these indexes are concerned, everything is oversold and everyone knows it, so even with some growth in housing it is still below anticipation and the current markets are not quite as optimistic as a month ago.
Implosion in lumber prices is mostly a China story. China had been the important marginal buyer. Now, not so much.
Another look at the Philly Housing Index - Weekly:
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-philly-housing-index-recovering-...
Currently at 169. Channel support is broken - looks like long term down.
and a word of btfd from our resident housing director, LIES, ALL LIES. AND ITS BUSHYS FAULT.
Looks like I am going to be a landlord! So glad I awoke after my home purchase. Fucking matrix.