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Market Update: Surveying The Damage So Far
UPDATE: The pre-open VWAP ramp has been totally flushed in stocks and VIX has exploded
Much as the world of business media would like the world to work in a 'great rotation' like way; in reality the markets - all of them - ebb and flow on the back of leverage, repo, and liquidity. At no time in the recent past has that been more evident than in the last few days as every asset class in almost every ragion of the world is rediced in price by a market of angry liquidity-addicted carry traders demanding moar as their dealer wonders off into retirement. Overnight saw an early rise in Japan (and China) evaporate into a collapse, that spilled over further into Europe, and now the US. Despite a sudden rampaplooza across FX and equity markets in the pre-open, things do not look pretty as the great rotation is replaced by the great unwind.
The Great Divergence since QE went into full swing... (h/t @ConvertBond) China -36%, S&P 500 +36%
Asia - China stocks battered... Japan bounced and faded
Europe - all stock markets systemically lower by 7 to 8% from FOMC - Greece/Italy/Spain worst; Sovereign bonds waking up to the carnage and 30-40bps wider from FOMC
Greece is exploding again...
US - bonds and stocks hammered
Charts: Bloomberg
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ehhhhh, fuck it dude. Let's go bowling.
That's normalcy bias talking. Better to lock and load.
it's a league game, Smokey.
"Mark it a 'zero'!"
I didn't watch my buddies die face down in the muck....
Life is a great big table top. People go along and everything is the same, day in day out. Then they come to an edge and all of a sudden, life changes.
Go out and get some exercise today and clear your head. The shit storm has now arrived.
Smokey you're entering a world of pain
When you gotta trot Cramer out there to put on a song & dance at market open.....you KNOW there's trouble in river city. Going down to Big 5 this morning to buy a Savage model 64 .22 cal rifle. The worst day buyin' a gun is better than the best day at work. Keep stackin'!
DOW will close nearly GREEN today. Special surprise for bulls later in day.
that is a bold call.
I say bring out the deer!
Especially so since one player AND one chair has been removed from the game.
I think it's a "there are no markets anymore...only interventions" call.
Agreed. The bernank is going to put the hurts on the shorts.
You mean he was just kidding about going down on the Tapir?
Say it ain't so...
'Going down on the Tapir' - good one, I keep imagining that picture of the Tapir on Bruce Krasting's post the other day.
Its bizarre enough out there that I would not be surprised at anything happening. You've made some great calls, Slaughterer, a few more 'short' hours and we will know.
Unless the FED holds a special news conference and announces they're refilling the punch bowl I don't see that happening. It may be too late even for that to completely stop the unwind.
I think you overestimate the powers of the PPT.
Mr.Market > PPT
Is it Tuesday?
It is in Australia; but I'm not sure how much that helps.
Don't seem likely. I made a stupid mistake buying the bond contract without any evidence that it was recovering; I "assumed" money would flow back into the bonds quickly; it didn't so far; I had to exercise a stop loss. So now I'm out -$4000 on the Bond Long; and I only made $5,000 on the S&P500 short; which I should have left on; bad guessing. Tch, tch.
congratulations.
i did not actually think it was possible for the markets to be down nearly 2 percent, and for them to bring it all the way green on absolutely no news.
i guess chinas banks were fixed and europe is fixed. all is good.
bold call u made, and although u r not officially right as i type this, even if the market closes down 80 pts or below, im counting that as green.
congrats on that bold call, i guess i learned my lesson, never fucking rule out the fed, they can pump a maket up at anytime they want.
fuck u bernanke and all fed members
"and although u r not officially right as i type this"
He did say "NEARLY green", and I'd say (as of now) he made a great call.
ya it was a great call.
this market should have been down over 400 pts today.
we were down 248 pretty early on and if not for some jackass from the fed saying a bunch of bullshit to pump markets, good chance we would have.
finishing down 140 is a victory for the bulls.
however, i do think selling continues long term.
1st Stop, Lingerie, 14th Floor.
Going down...
3rd stop...chicken feed..prices up...egg production up...chicken shit futures bright.
Watch out for the elevator...its out of order...the first step..its a doozie
Alley or lawn?
I'm good either way.
and so every talking head is screaming... "dollar cost average"...
To infinity with inflation.
Without coin clipping this market is a smoking hole in the ground... politically unacceptable to stop. http://tinyurl.com/mem7o7x
It will be interesting to see if Fisher suddenly turns dovish when he speakes today.
I hope they do the interview live from his bunker somewhere near golden colorado. That would send the right message.
If anyone doesn't feel safe holding their silver or gold, there are lots of us on here that will gladly take it off your hands for a little bit more than JPM is willing to offer for it.
Is that your way of saying that Gold and Silver are down along with everything else?
--bks
That's how you know there is a cdo attached to it.
Then again, you may get lucky and catch on.
There are three types of silver and gold.
Paper backed with nothing and traded in a fiat currency is down.
Tungsten cored silver and gold that can be shipped immediately. It's also down. Eventually it'll come with something useful like chocolate in the silver and gold wrapper. Until then, recycled lightbulb filaments. Once it costs more than $5 to mine Tungsten... oh wait it does.
Anycase. Real Physical is unavailable and now nearly a year timeframe for delivery. Therefore cannot be purchased for any price.
Otherwise I'm not too worried.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/10-of-us-annual-silver-supply-just-vaporized/
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/global-copper-market-headed-for-hot-w...
http://www.steelguru.com/metals_news/Rio_Tinto_starts_off_downsizing_at_...
Rio Tinto is pulling a Bre-X on it's investors as well btw. You know, lie about supply problems and import someone else's product to hedge your own output. Doesn't work very well in a collapsing ETF paper market. Credit starts acting all crazy...leverage and interest start to look sharper and more dangerous the longer they play the shell game of disappearing supply.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1495972-rio-tinto-will-finally-begin-shi...
hey ben, your junkies are screaming for another fix! give me more, give me more!
There is no way all that leverage can be unwound.
He who sells first sells best.
fuck all this...I'm taking a god damned nap
This isn't good news at all..... For permabulls, people investing in paper, bankers.. and ultimately restaurants & hookers. Trickle nowhere thanks to QE 'taper' talk.
10 years just hit 2.6%....Yikes !!!!
It's panic time in the housing market.
No way, dude!! It is "Buy Now Or Be Priced Out Forever"! Huge increases in housing coming in the next month or two. [/sarcasm]
...listen it's customary to put a small down on the house, yeah, just make that cheque out in my mother's maiden name. What's that? Cash is her name. No need for titles like Miss or Mr, we're all friends here...
Thanks <gun fingers> who loves ya!
BTFD or not!
And the Sheep shall be sheered...
Short on savings, Americans still feeling positive
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-savings-americans-still-feeling-1000...
..they may want to redo the survey after this week...just say'n
The move int he 5 year is breathtaking. From 65 basis points on May 2 to over 1.5% today.
this is extremely fun to watch.
i love the fucking panic on wall st, fucking them all. i hope all these bankers go to jail and lose there jobs.
i love how on cnbc they are saying this is just part of a normal cycle. my fucking ass, corrections r one thing, 200 plus point downswings is panic, crash is deff underway.
we can see big green days here and there, heck during the 08-09 crash we had an up 900 dow day, means nothing. overall its going downward, and this time hopefully there will be no bailout and lots of arrests made.
I don't see any panic and i'mnot being sarcastic. This still seems like an orderly equity puke.
way too orderly.....
we spiraled downwards pretty quickly from open.
the dow also sank 200 pts pretty quickly. it would not surprise me if the dow finished -400 plus today. i know its early, but things are bad.
maybe we rebound a bit before we accelarate downwards again, dont know. action will prob pick up again when europe closes.
It's just a fire drill.......with smoke and flames.
(soundtrack of the Olympics playing) "let the competitive devaluations begin!"
Hey Ben -- how's that can kicking thing going?
The can has now turned into a 55 gallon drum...and its full of printing ink. Don't stub your toes Ben...
Just got a new pair of steel toed boots yesterday.
The can is stuck to the end of his shoe. Lets watch him tap dance!
I wondered how pensions were going to be raided. Now its coming into focus
Hey these interest rates are starting to look like more than just stealing from grannies to pay banksters.
Don't you guys worry- Obama is unveiling his climate change policy tomorrow, and the investments in Green Energy will lift the American Economy into the stratosphere.
Since 6/19/13:
Dow off 700+
S&P off 85+
Gold off 90+
10 Year from 2.20 to 2.61.
This just from the hint that maybe someday the Fed will start to sorta think about kinda slowing down the rate of increase in it's purchase program.
Can you imagine the smoking hole of ruin if they actually stopped easing?
Let me take you down, 'cos I'm going to Strawberry Fields.
Gold weekly is looking bearish.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-weekly-closes-below-key-1310-...
And the USD should keep climbing. The USD is regarded as the safehaven and as rates continue to climb, the move to the USD will become more intense.
It's a reaal Fat's Domino "Monday, Monday", alright. Shit, I think I'll go back to bed.