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They Said To Sell In May... They Were Right
Simply put, despite the euphoric sentiment from business media, if you had sold on any day during May (stocks or bonds intriguingly) then you are currently making money...
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Pump and Dump Bitchez!
Now the great unwind is starting, I love all these retards "buying the dip" :) Idiots always lose their money, regardless.
But the biggest retard still has an American Express Taxpayer To Bankruptcy card (it's the new Black) in his wallet. We'll see how long before he uses it.
I'm busy reinvesting my dollar holdings into treasuries and equities in order to maintain my 1:1:1 ratio of US dollars, US equities and US treasuries (the Iron Trifecta). Good thing I don't have to sell my treasuries in order to maintain my ratio, as I'm planning to hold these to maturity.
You do go on! Rah! Rah! Rah!
MOAR DEER!
It's not as if they hadn't been warned ... repeatedly ...
Sell The Fucking Spike (STFS)
That was sooo Mayish.
Wasn't it?
Global deflationary crash 2.0...once again started by the wizards of Wall Street and the Fed.
This is certainly a preview. Nothing safe except cash outside the system.....I'm still fairly certain this is a correction....
i bought the dip .... and chips
Ponzinomics 101.
Looks like a brisk day at the exits. I'm a gold bug, I've already got my ass handed to me. I think I might enjoy a good sheeple stampede. I know a few smug faces I'd like to see dissapear.
Surely you didn't buy the gold just as an investment. Think of it as buying a safe port in a storm, a refuge. The dollar value will mean nothing when you have the means to barter for food and water while the paper system has imploded on itself.
>> when you have the means to barter for food and water
If it gets down to bartering for food and water I'm dead meat anyway. One old guy out living on the land with a disabled wife. Pretty easy pickings by anyone's standards. Fortunately I don't buy into the total collapse into primitive survival society thing. I'm more of a slow, gradual descent into consumerit's version of hell, with the occaisional air pocket that brings us down a bunch. But I think, and I hope, that society continues to function on a somewhat civilized fashion.
Now I do think the crowded inner cities and low end areas with see heightend lawlessness, which is why I bailed out into hobby farm territority. For my situation, I think I've hit the sweet spot, a crappy, low tax dump situation in an upscale area of hobby horse farms. May, or may not, work for me, but I think I'll be able to make a stand here as well as anywhere. For now I busy myself with gardening, canning, upgrading and equipping my little abode, and trying to think through my best security options and what the threats are. I spent several years fending off attacks when I lived next to a ghetto area so securing several perimeters is something important to me. Best of luck to all.
With your situation I think you have a lot less to fear than about 95% of the U.S. population. At this point you are well ahead of the power curve.
2.61%
Need moar fear.
CNBC marching out dickwad after dickwad to assure us the fed did not mean what it said.
12:30 will determine how the market goes. I think we have a prett good short sqeeze due.
what I can't figure out is how they can pull the market higher by squeezing the shorts without sending the 10yr higher. It seems like Ben has to choose one or the other right now. I tip my hat to him if he can get bonds and stocks to rally without announcing QE5 to do it.
All I know is that I don't believe QE tappering will ever happen. Having said that if the Bernank doesn't get in front of this it will overwhelm his printing presses.
They can't yields to move down, they have lost control. Too many had faith in the Fed that this COULD NOT HAPPEN while they were minding the store. Too many leveraged players are caught.
How about the thought that the 10 yr hangs around 2.75 - 3, and then after a stock market rally (or as Doc says - short squeeze) to resistance you get a rotation "back" into bonds. This would afford Ben the opportunity of offloading his balance sheet, sort of unnoticed. Just throwing it out there.
Offload his balance sheet? To who? The banks? Grandma?
The second anyone sniffs him trying to offload his balance sheet it's time to wipe out the supermarket and head out of town.
Dick Fisher has been banging this drum and the saying goes be careful what u ask for. All I can see him doing now is praising bernanke today. I wonder if today is a circuit breaker day.
The ten year hit marginal trend support at 125 from the lows of spring 2010 and spring 2011. Does it have enough mojo to hold? With as fast as it's dropped so far if there isn't some sense of support the rat's will start to jump ship in droves. It could be a story to tell the grandkids.
"I remember when I saw three bond investors jump from windows at the same time, those were the days"
WEll, unless you think Ben owns all the equities too, then yeah i suppose you could be right. However, if growth is tepid at best, then stocks have no business being where they are, especially as the USD continues to rise along with rates. Seems to me it is possible to see equities lock in gains and move to a 2.5 - 3% coupon and call it a year - is all i am saying.
that seems very plausable.
@fonz
Last week was about all I could handle of CNBC. Let me know when someone starts open weeping on the set....
Cramer will someday. He looks like a cry-baby to me.
It had to start somewhere. I would not have guessed it was going to be China popping first, but looks like they're the ones freaking everyone out today.
Ever think you'd be right so damned fast?
More to the point..... Have we achieved "cruising altitude?"
China was supposed to buy the US's shit paper as the first line of defense instead of ctrl-P. That leaves ctrl-P as the only defense and it hasn't worked with the actual economy.
Kind of sad when you have a designated buyer for your toilet paper and you spend Sunday having your politicians on TV badmouthing them for letting a traitorous villan go free. Bad market on Monday, who could have guessed. Wait for the announcement that they need to start liquidating bonds 'for the children'.
oil still in hyperinflation
No oil move, nothing happens
I think oil's more concerned with war in the Middle East right now than economic fundamentals.
Hmmm, I don't think middle east matters now. That's what they said in 2008 also.
Almost everybody is leveraged long and "somebody" will have to call the margin on oil
$BDI still ramping.
WTF?
Maybe $BDI going up due to geopolitical situation adding to risk of sea transport/insurance?
Fonz, from what I understand it's mostly PAPER bonds that are being sold by leveraged hedge funds in the West. I think though, that there's brisk buying of PHYSICAL bonds in China and India, as they take advantage of these low prices to transfer physical US debt from the speculators in the west to strong hands in the east. We should see photos on the internet soon of long lines at the Chinese banks as the population there stampedes to scoop up USTs at bargain prices.
this will continue Al until those Bond mines close up due to having to sell their inventory below the bonds spot price.
LOLOL
I can't stop laughing
Well, that's what they get for agreeing to sell at these artificially low prices. They should just negotiate direct bilateral contracts with China, but frankly, I think they're just in the pockets of the big banks. Or else this is just a big setup by JPM so it can snap them up at firesale prices after the retail investors have all been forced out.
Hopefully somebody at CNBC or Bloomberg is reading, these would be good talking points for them.
Fonz.
I bought Greek bond mining stocks today. As long as the price of pulp stays low, they should crank out a good dividend.
Good move ?
LOLOL
h/t Maria Bartiromo.
Ever notice how much she looks like Tokyo Rose?
http://www.modestoradiomuseum.org/images/tokyo-rose-for-web.gif
http://theblackbaygroupblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/LandColt-Trading-Maria-Bartiromo-and-CNBC.jpg
Some obvious ethnic differences but otherwise they could be sisters.
the voice of Amerika
p.s. BTFD...in gold
Crash and burn scumbag
Some crybaby on CNBC blaming the FED for markets being down.
I'm certain this same asshole was on in the past year saying markets up 50% were due to "fundamentals".
p.s. - KB homes up 133% in the past year; tell me how that is based on "fundamentals" and anything other than a banker casino.
The Fed can jawbone temporary spikes and crashes but the new trend seems to be a secular bear again.and the Fed is always following the trend
miracles
You couldn't have had a clearer signal by the fed to sell.
Bernanke got out in fron't of Wall Street and said SELLLLLL!!!
Got it?
That's what his banksters are doing.
I just had sort of an enlightenment: I will BTFB -> Buy Those Fucking Beers
Having done that, I'll proceed to call it a day ...
woohoo!!!!! it was about time man!!!
GOLD BITCHEZ!!!! GOLD!!!!
They'll bring this bitch kicking and screaming to 20,000 before they let it fail... All were seeing now is some insider trading (shorting) by the big banks while everyone else gets fleeced, same old story...
First big laugh of the day. True, so true. The MSM is at defcon ocho. Kevin and crew are still hung over from great weekend in the Hamptons but they will be amp-ed up by the 3:30 ramp.
I follow the sell in May rule, myself. Couldn't be easier to follow, and beats by-and-hold, dollar cost averaging.
Good vs Bad Trading Days
-November Trading Day Number 1 through May Trading Day Number 3 = Good
-May Trading Day Number 4 through last Trading Day of October = Bad
Sell In May by the Numbers
From October 31st, 1949 to present:
-$1,000 invested in the Dow only during the “Good” period grew to $113,443 (or +11,244%)
-$1,000 invested in the Dow only during the “Bad” period declined to $714 (or -28%).
Even so, I covered my Russell short at 10:01, as I still believe we'll be playing pivot ping-pong on these down days, with a few pushes up toward the 5-min 20 MA, but perhaps stalling out at the day's high. There are too many big boys that don't want out at these Salvation Army prices, so I have to believe they'll be playing it for a few hours, at least upt to VWAP and back down to the pivot, and any big dump to put the Dow over the -300 mark will wait until after 2:15. Or, perhaps this is just pre-Dallas Fed positioning for more algo-fun to hit some stops before refueling the dump-truck.
(As I type this, the various volatililty measures are backing off a bit, as is TNX, bulls flexing a bit?)
They already gave the latecomers a second peak forewarning.
Don't disagree, I was talking purely from a daytrading perspective (and we've come back nearly to the 5-min 20 MA on the Russell, but it looks, at least at the moment, like the bears were waiting to re-short). With the various VIX-es at new lows for the day, I just wonder if we'll get a solid push to new daily lows until later this afternoon. Vol seems such an intraday driver these days, I'll likely wait to re-short until I see a VIX turnaround off these interim lows.
Had to get out of the daytrade biz, far too consuming.
I hear that a lot, and know about the 95% failure stats. However, my story, if you'll indulge me a bit, involves a layoff from a financial management position at age 45 in late 2007 just at the crisis was starting. My resume was pre-screened out of 99% of apps due to my experience and salary, and by the time things started to turn in 2010, my length of unemployment made things hopeless. I considered a career change to a more in-demand field, but with 2 degrees, an MBA plus part of a Ph.D., my research showed firms were reluctant to hire for entry level jobs anyone much over 30, particularly in fields like accounting and computer science. Thus, I needed something I could do completely solo, with a controlled capital investment. At this point, after toiling day and night for just under 2 years, my trading metrics are finally at the point where a living is theoretically possible, my challenge, as with most on this path, is the psychological aspects of trading bigger sizes and ignoring and/or outsmarting algo chicanery. To wit, since the last post I scalped a 1/3 position back down to the lows, but had my profit-taking order sitting at the pivot, as I knew the Russell ninja bastards would choose 11:30 as their time to trap new shorts and fly back to VWAP, and as I type this they've made it, but my two successful trades are banked for the day. Not much in the scheme of things, but would be a 100%+ return if I could do this most days, often stopping by 12:30, coming back in after 2:00 only if I see great opportunity. Yes it's hard, but there are some of us taking a metric-driven, businesslike approach (I can tell you my average win/loss for every half hour period of the day, day of week, etc.) that, with diligence, could amount to at least a living. At least that's my hope :)
The insiders know the Earnings Per Share numbers have to fall when CFOs can't borrow interest free anymore to buy back shares.
That denominator won't be able to shrink anymore, to camouflage anemic numerator increases.
EPS may be on its way down, and the P in P/E will go with it.
Cramer said hedge funds would be crazy to hold stocks right now, but retail investors should be alright. Seriously, how fucking stupid are the muppets holding this bag?
but but Cramer said he was bullish or did he say bullshit?
But, but, but, everyone on CNBC said to buy.
We're off the lows. Never been a better time to buy.
Yeah, and the same idiots who said the markets were fine in 2007 and laughed at (literally) Peter Schiff for predicting a crash just months away.
This is Ben's pay back time. Ben's thinking "how dare you Mr. Obama show me the door unceremoniously..Now take this!"
In the Laughter is the Best Medicine category today; we have, from Marketwatch; "Egypt Stocks are quite cheap"; oh, whoopie; let's run out and buy some then; that'll make everything okay. Egypt Stocks with a side of Italian Govt. Bonds; what could go wrong?
Egypt huh? I was taking a pretty serious look at Greece, as they seem to be VERY cheap, and I was thinking the interest rates on bank deposits in Cyprus right now must be fairly attractive, so I was going to investigate that, but I had COMPLETELY overlooked the Egyptian market. I wonder if there's an opportunity for a regional play here, you know? I'm thinking Libyan, Tunisian, maybe Somali, and stretching a little further, but still kind of regional, I bet Syria's somewhat oversold as well - I'm guessing all those markets are pretty cheap right now. Those guys at Marketwatch - always one step ahead of the bankster crowd.
Tradition bitchez
And on May 22nd I did sell :]