Guest Post: The Evolution Of The Case-Shiller Index...

Tyler Durden's picture

Originally posted at The World Complex blog,

...viewed in real time is like watching paint dry, but without the possible dramatics of runs. Hence, the long break since the last time I looked at this.

In case you are unfamiliar with it, the Case-Shiller index is an inflation-adjusted index for house prices in the United States (data available here; methodology here - pdf). As the recent data is presented quarterly, the annual values in the graph below I have calculated as the average of the four quarterly values for a calendar year.

The analysis is the same as last time, where I outlined three possible scenarios we could see to 2015.


So far we are headed right down the middle towards the main area of stability, where inflation-adjusted house prices remained for about 50 years after WWII. You can throw an apple really high, but it's hard to keep it from falling afterwards.

Clearly, if people are to get wealthy from real estate, Bernanke needs to keep blowing (or is it sucking?)

Below is the same index, but quarterly.

The long and winding road has leads us back to our door.

We'll stop in and look at this later (next year)--after all we don't want to be like the crowd watching Thomas Hardy write in that famous Monty Python skit which would have been embedded right here except all that came up is a notice saying that "this video cannot be viewed on certain [chart-porn] sites".

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PiratePawpaw's picture

This system is beyond "FUBAR".  I doubt we make it to fall before the wheels fly off.

Enjoy the summer. :)

AlaricBalth's picture

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.
T.S. Eliot

PiratePawpaw's picture

Stone knives and bearskins?

AlaricBalth's picture

Thanks for the laugh Pirate...I needed it.

PiratePawpaw's picture

Homes became ATM's became empty became "oh shit".......


Wakanda's picture

Ben blows bubbles and sucks life blood.

LetThemEatRand's picture

It's just a flesh wound.

Mike in GA's picture

Hmmm...the first inflationary wave of the mid 70s doesn't even show up in this series relative to the 2000s.  I thought it was that era that really lit the RE wealth generation fuse. 

Five8Charlie's picture

Case-Schiller is inflation-adjusted. So housing was rising in price, but so was everything.

francis_sawyer's picture

Those charts look like the top of the Morton's Salt jar design I made after dropping purple micro-dot the first time... [Who knew I was actually 'future writing']...

Frank N. Beans's picture

I think if the government just implemented usage of drones over our cities then crime would drop drastically. These machines can fly undetected to the human eye but have cameras powerful enough to see what book youre reading! I would feel so much safer in my daily private life.

francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe they could equip each one with a payload of pigeon shitbombs to REALLY enhance the fun for everyone...

NoDebt's picture

Wow, that's some chart.  I guess housing is being put back in it's box.  Pity the same can't be said of the banks.

Bobportlandor's picture

etch a sketch I got one of those too .

mickeyman's picture

Listen Bob, I don't give away your trade secrets

kito's picture

Gold getting bloodied as we speak...

fonzannoon's picture

Do not fucketh with the Bernak Kito. He is showing who is in charge. Gold...Interest rates...whatthefuckever....hell have no fury like a Bernak scorned.

Germany just told the fed to keep their gold. They don't want that useless pile of shit.

PiratePawpaw's picture

Ill still take an ounce of silver over an ounce of Bernanke-BS.

(how do you measure that, btw?)

disabledvet's picture

again..."gold does not go to infinity but money does." hence "Sir Isaac Newton tried to find away around gold...but could not." and look at all that beautiful math we've been missing as a consequence! hmmm. "obviously no one saw 2008 coming." the testimony before the FBI of "i'm probably one of only a few hundred people who understand this math" always stood out to me. "makes you wonder who the other 99 were" doesn't it. needless to say 'they were also from Massachusetts." (and i ain't talking Harvard.) that's a nice way of saying "you can take that Case/Schiller and stick it where the sun don't shine." and this which is a nice way of saying even though JP Morgan The Banker always had direct access to the Treasury Department...he never used it. in other words HE would be personally liable should HIS system fail. hmmm. how interesting. "he showed up to fix it"....PERSONALLY. "and that's why the United States Federal Reserve behaves the way it does." like it's their own money. which of course "when the numbers are this large" is.

q99x2's picture

I say we go back to morse code and story-telling. To hell with google youtube.

ebworthen's picture

Housing Bubble Part II.

Case-Shiller index is clearly indicating it, and Shiller admitted as much on CNBC today if you listen carefully.

For some reason, CNBC hasn't posted the video (?).

Frastric's picture

Best chart porn I've seen in years!