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Guest Post: The Evolution Of The Case-Shiller Index...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Originally posted at The World Complex blog,

...viewed in real time is like watching paint dry, but without the possible dramatics of runs. Hence, the long break since the last time I looked at this.

In case you are unfamiliar with it, the Case-Shiller index is an inflation-adjusted index for house prices in the United States (data available here; methodology here - pdf). As the recent data is presented quarterly, the annual values in the graph below I have calculated as the average of the four quarterly values for a calendar year.

The analysis is the same as last time, where I outlined three possible scenarios we could see to 2015.

 

So far we are headed right down the middle towards the main area of stability, where inflation-adjusted house prices remained for about 50 years after WWII. You can throw an apple really high, but it's hard to keep it from falling afterwards.

Clearly, if people are to get wealthy from real estate, Bernanke needs to keep blowing (or is it sucking?)

Below is the same index, but quarterly.

The long and winding road has leads us back to our door.

We'll stop in and look at this later (next year)--after all we don't want to be like the crowd watching Thomas Hardy write in that famous Monty Python skit which would have been embedded right here except all that came up is a notice saying that "this video cannot be viewed on certain [chart-porn] sites".

 

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Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:18 | 3693014 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

This system is beyond "FUBAR".  I doubt we make it to fall before the wheels fly off.

Enjoy the summer. :)

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:28 | 3693040 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.
T.S. Eliot

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:30 | 3693049 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Stone knives and bearskins?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:34 | 3693068 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Thanks for the laugh Pirate...I needed it.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:37 | 3693075 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

NP.

here to serve. :)

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:35 | 3693070 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Homes became ATM's became empty became "oh shit".......

next?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:18 | 3693017 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Ben blows bubbles and sucks life blood.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:19 | 3693020 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

It's just a flesh wound.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:20 | 3693024 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Hmmm...the first inflationary wave of the mid 70s doesn't even show up in this series relative to the 2000s.  I thought it was that era that really lit the RE wealth generation fuse. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:35 | 3693069 Five8Charlie
Five8Charlie's picture

Case-Schiller is inflation-adjusted. So housing was rising in price, but so was everything.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:21 | 3693025 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Those charts look like the top of the Morton's Salt jar design I made after dropping purple micro-dot the first time... [Who knew I was actually 'future writing']...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:26 | 3693036 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

I think if the government just implemented usage of drones over our cities then crime would drop drastically. These machines can fly undetected to the human eye but have cameras powerful enough to see what book youre reading! I would feel so much safer in my daily private life.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 22:58 | 3693351 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe they could equip each one with a payload of pigeon shitbombs to REALLY enhance the fun for everyone...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:29 | 3693043 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Wow, that's some chart.  I guess housing is being put back in it's box.  Pity the same can't be said of the banks.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:30 | 3693045 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

etch a sketch I got one of those too .

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 22:35 | 3693267 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Listen Bob, I don't give away your trade secrets

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:32 | 3693059 kito
kito's picture

Gold getting bloodied as we speak...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:37 | 3693073 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Do not fucketh with the Bernak Kito. He is showing who is in charge. Gold...Interest rates...whatthefuckever....hell have no fury like a Bernak scorned.

Germany just told the fed to keep their gold. They don't want that useless pile of shit.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:45 | 3693095 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Ill still take an ounce of silver over an ounce of Bernanke-BS.

(how do you measure that, btw?)

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:34 | 3693067 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

again..."gold does not go to infinity but money does." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative hence "Sir Isaac Newton tried to find away around gold...but could not." and look at all that beautiful math we've been missing as a consequence! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securitization hmmm. "obviously no one saw 2008 coming." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos the testimony before the FBI of "i'm probably one of only a few hundred people who understand this math" always stood out to me. "makes you wonder who the other 99 were" doesn't it. needless to say 'they were also from Massachusetts." (and i ain't talking Harvard.) that's a nice way of saying "you can take that Case/Schiller and stick it where the sun don't shine." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_interest and this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-off which is a nice way of saying even though JP Morgan The Banker always had direct access to the Treasury Department...he never used it. in other words HE would be personally liable should HIS system fail. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907 hmmm. how interesting. "he showed up to fix it"....PERSONALLY. "and that's why the United States Federal Reserve behaves the way it does." like it's their own money. which of course "when the numbers are this large"...it is.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 22:12 | 3693179 q99x2
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I say we go back to morse code and story-telling. To hell with google youtube.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 00:41 | 3693647 ebworthen
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Housing Bubble Part II.

Case-Shiller index is clearly indicating it, and Shiller admitted as much on CNBC today if you listen carefully.

For some reason, CNBC hasn't posted the video (?).

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 07:57 | 3694057 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Best chart porn I've seen in years!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!