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If H2 2013 Is So Full Of Growth Expectations, Then Why Is This Chart Dropping?
While mass layoffs are hardly the stuff of dream recoveries, the following chart from Stone McCarthy may just clarify the un-recovery hopes this year a little more. Non-withheld individual income taxes were up sharply year-over-year in the last few months reflecting moves by taxpayers to accelerate income into 2012, in anticipation of tax hikes in 2013. However, now we have passed the prior year's tax liabilities deadline, and payments in June are just for the current year, there is a problem. Individuals make estimated payments if they expect they won't satisfy their current year tax obligation through withholding and as the chart below shows, non-withheld tax payments were down 3.0% versus the comparable period last year - hardly the stuff of consumer-spending-driven recoveries as clearly individuals are not expecting incomes to rise at all this year in aggregate. With every analyst and strategist pointing to H2 2013 as the hope-and-change driven recovery that satisfies a market's extrapolation way beyond current data, we suspect this tax-based deterioration signals more disappointment for the dreamers.
Via Stone McCarthy,
Non-withheld individual tax payments in January are made to satisfy the prior year's tax liabilities. The bulk of non-withheld payments in April are made to settle the prior year's tax bill, but some are estimated payments for the current year.
June 15 is also a date on which individuals make non-withheld tax payments, but payments in June are just for the current year. Individuals make estimated payments if they expect they won't satisfy their current year tax obligation through withholding. Today's Chart of the Day shows the year-over-year change in non-withheld tax payments for last June, as well as for January, April and June of this year to-date.
Through June 21, non-withheld tax payments were down 3.0% versus the comparable period last year -- five days from the tax date (June 17 of this year, since June 15 fell on a weekend.) It's possible that there will be some catch-up in the days ahead, although last year 95% of the month's non-withheld taxes had been collected by June 21.
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It's all about wage growth. While other numbers are being used to support the mainstream media's recovery narrative, people are making less money. Eventually, this will lead to them buying less stuff and a resultant recession. Of course, it will take the MSM a few quarters to figure all this out.
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/around-the-glove-06-25-2013/
the MSM only "figures out" what the govt tells them to.
Or they get exploded in a fiery car crash.
and fired (or worse) if they 'discover' something the .gov tells them not to
the MSM does mainly what it is told to do by its sponsors.
And as always, reality will show that the CBO is full of shit.
Biderman used this stat as the focus of his assessment of economic health. Seems pretty straight forward.
It certainly does seem straight forward. it's very difficult to deny or disguise as an indicator of economic "recovery"; so I don't suppose we'll be hearing much about it; except here.
That's one hell of a swing.
I pay quarterly estimated income tax and let me tell you. The reason quarterly estimated tax receipts are down 3% from last year isn't due expectations of future income levels, its because the majority of us small business owners just dont have the money to pay the taxes we owe. If you let the majority of americans keep 100% of their money and go to them after 3 months to get the taxes, nearly everyone would be guilty of tax evasion.
"quarterly estimated income tax"
It is truly a bitch to pay this tax, especially with the states piling on this mechanism. One bad quarter and you could be in some serious doo doo. It seriously feels a lot like I'm paying protection money to a mob guy that "doesn't give a fuck, just get me my money, or we break your kneecaps".
But, but---there's an economic recovery, so everything must be alright?
Proving that the S&P should be around 400 at best....all else is just hot gas in a balloon.
Why pay tax at all? Bernanke can print away any shortfall. After all, isn't that why we still keep him around? This modern day alchemist, the Merlin of our age! Kings and Queens of the past tried to make gold from hay. That's all history. We have Bernanke and other central bankers who have finally found the solution to the King's eternal quest for wealth! There's more to it of course but essentially we don't need to fight wars, conquer lands and pillage another King's treasures. We just make it up as we go, we spy on the rest of the world (including our own) and we run propaganda 24/7 to create the perception and illusion among people that our paper has value indeed even when the value has decreased nearly 99% since inception.
Yikes!
Close you eyes and it'll go away.
Quick, get Hollywood to tell them how good it is.
Hurry, more of the Travon woulda been my son and kill the traitor Emanuel Snowden distractions.
Lookie all the jobs we created or saved.
At last count 322,874,966 1/3... not counting the Intangibles.
Fuckin' A Great stuff to come!
Where's the TelePrompter!
Get me my TelePrompter
I'm open to discussing this further. No questions.
Stimulus. You fuckers in Congress can't pass a stimulus package, I'll spend a $100MM in Africa, watch that trickle down, motherfuckas!
Hah!
Take care of this shit, real quick.
Rig them pols, get the ratings up.
Damn, it's good to be God!
Because it's summer, and everyone is away. Employment has picked up for most people, they saved up money and FINALY went for an extended vacation. Of course there are shitty cities where there will never be jobs, and people will never pick up on that, and will always complain that there are no jobs. Just like in Russia.
Ummm.. Because small businesses are royally fuckkked by Obummercare and an imploding economy?
yeah, as simple as that. and it's way worse than in 2008/2009.
Theres alway hope in H2 2014
Until there isn't.
ditto