This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
It's Time To Sell Rockefeller Center To Japan Again
Back in the 1980s Japan found itself in an admirable, if unsustainable, position: the Nikkei was trading in the upper-30,000s (yes, three times higher than where it trades now after so much hyperbole), inflation was stable, the Walkman and Trinitron revolutions meant the Japanese export juggernaut owned the US, and the future seemed bright. So bright, in fact, that the country just had to make a statement not somewhere else, but in the middle of Manhattan...by buying that icon of capitalism, the Rockefeller Center.
Yes, yes, we did say "unsustainable" - very soon the brief "bright future" had its lights shut out, the Nikkei cratered, the Japanese demographic crush virtually assured a slow, deflationary death for the country, and Mitsubishi Estate's purchase of Rock Center went from dream to nightmare.
Fast forward 25 years, when it appears that Japan is set to not only not learn from its own tragic past, but to repeat exactly the same mistakes it did in 1989 when in a moment of brief, irrational exuberance, it though that unsustainable is, in fact, sustainable.
Reuters reports that Japan's public pension fund, the world's largest with a pool of $1.1 trillion, and which until recently was the mystery buyer ex machina that was supposed to buy up the Nikkei past 16,000 and on its way to 20,000, 30,000 and more (a dream that fizzled as quickly as it appeared following our explanation that buying stocks means selling bonds), may start buying real estate to boost returns in a move that could involve tens of billions pouring into cities such as London and Paris. Or New York.
Any such plan by Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) would come as the country's government urges public funds to increase returns to help revive the economy, part of the game-changing economic policies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Earlier this month, the GPIF said it would shift away from bonds and into stocks to take on greater risk in the most significant shift in its asset allocation since 2006.
Property typically offers a higher yield, or rental income as a percentage of a property's value, than government bonds because it is seen as a riskier investment that takes longer to buy or sell and faces the risk of becoming empty.
As central banks keep interest rates historically low, many government bond yields offer little or no return, prompting some investors to shift into real estate.
"It is striking just how much larger GPIF is than any of the word's other pension funds ... Therefore, if it ultimately expands its remit to include international real estate, it could become a very significant player," CBRE said.
True: when gambling with people's livelihoods in an assured asset bubble, for a society whose wealth-preservation options are evaporating by the day, the GPIF could certainly "become a very significant player." And right after that it would become the most significant government-bailed out pension fund in history. That, or the limits of Japanese calmness would certainly be tested, when presented with the realization that the nation's retirement capital has been gambled away.
Because what asset class is an even more assured asset bubble than the stock market? Why premium real-estate of course (just ask "tightening" China where housing has posted 12 months of constant price increases... let alone Hong Kong, London, New York, Zurich, Vienna or of course New York). And since central banks are already directly investing in stocks, what is the last bastion of the "all in" bubble mentality? Buying Stevie Cohen's $100 million+ Bloomberg Building pied-a-terre of course (sight unseen).
So yes, while Japan is reliving its second, and last, moment of brief, monetary euphoria, someone (most likely a descendant of the same last name persuasion) will once again sell the Rockefeller Center to Japan: because this time will not be different. Although the only happy ending will be for those who sell high, only to rebuy much, much lower.
»
- 11723 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
deleted.
I got hacked
REITs are so 2013... Oh wait
This sounds a lot like what Kyle Bass has been talking about. He cited a huge increase in recent M&A activity involving foreign companies in Japan. But overseas real estate would also be an escape route from the Yen and JGBs.
All part of the plan my friend. Entaglement of Governments and resources, yet who benefits? Quoth, "Own nothing, control everything"... The wheels are coming off for a reason.
Get me out of this fucking fairy tale. What the fuck.
Can we sell them all the Rockefellers as well?
I wish this friggin Financial Groundhogs Day movie would end..
Just sell them our Gold. Before it all goes to Zero. Tonight !!!
Gold and silver getting killed
Gold at $1256.64 and silver at $19.11
Excellent news. I am still able to accumulate.
Good. Lets get this fucking party started. Get paper to zero. I'm fine with it.
tempting to add some more. Might wait a bit see if more downside.
It like it says in the Bible; It comes like a thief in the night; no one knows the day or the hour; if you have the paper, I'd trade it in; the price isn't going to get significantly better.
No way this down stroke is going to end without some major spike in volume and wild reversal. Just wish it would get here soon.
Silver traded down through a major portion of 1979; significantly down. and this was late in the inflationary cycle. I bought it for $5/ oz. I think it was in August; it was either August or Sept. six months later it was 600% higher. when it goes; it goes. Surprised the piss out of me. I sold out at $25; it was difficult to believe. As it turned out, we had one more trip on the Fed. sponsored inflation cycle, (wash, rinse, repeat), that lasted until LTCM; the asian panic, the dot.com collapse; by which time you could see that the system was completely de-stabilized; and Silver was 5$/oz. again; now that made a lot of sense; 2001 dollars not being exactly equal in buying power to 1979 dollars. At least it wasn't too difficult to figure out what to do. At $20/oz. in fantasy dollars it just as ridiculous as it was in 2001 at $5oz. And the cheese is getting pretty ripe.
I suggest they dismantle 30 Rock & move it to Fukushima...
They don't refer to us as Yankee Traders for nothin'
And get the reasoning behind it all...
"the country's government (Japan) urges public funds to increase returns to help revive the economy"
Now stop and breathe deep. What's wrong with that statement?
It's fucking idiocy.
Pension fund returns do not boost economies.
Hooooooole-ie shit!
There's another thing wrong with that statement. There are no returns available; anywhere. This is the fact that all the big money people are face to face with now; we were living in a dream world of "growth". The growth stopped. That's it. No growth. No "returns". Who's going to pay the interest on your "return"; nobody, that's who. As I like to say, "the future has been cancelled due to lack of interest". Lack of interest available on financial instruments; because, EVERYBODIES TAPPED OUT. It's just that simple. This is why all the pension funds are going down; including CALPERS; which will be spectacular. There are no returns available; no-where, no-how; not available. this is why next time peoples attention starts turning towards precious metals it's going to get serious in a hurrry; because all the other options have been exhausted. ALL these pension funds have year over year "targets"; like 6-1/2%; or whatever; that they have to meet to finance the peoples pensions; it's not happening; it's not working; and it;s not going to work. it was all a dream; an inflationary dream; now it's time for the nightmare. way it goes.
CALPERS target is over 8.5%- LOL
Yeah, probably; I know it's ridiculous.
Well, they can arb the currency and come out ahead. Depndes on Yenta and Uncle Buck
Not surprising to see foreign held U.S. dollars come back into the U.S. and bidding up real assets. Could turn into a a tsunami of dollars finding their way back home. Let's hope U.S. companies and resources like Sprint, Smith-field farms, and now the Rockefeller Center are not the beginning of hot money starting an inflationary storm.
Sounds reasonable, anticipating the mad rush for anything real.
Wait till some of these people figure out that only one thing's real; and it's not New York Real Estate; then you'll be glad you anticipated the mad rush.
Re Weimar; at the end of the day you wanted to hold anything other than cash.
'Cashed up' Asia is falling apart and now they are looking for safe havens in the US?
hahahahahahahahah
US is Safe Haven "Screensaver"
Right. They're gonna trade their worthless paper for our worthless paper. clever plan. It's gonna be funny.
From a national perspective Japan needs to spend like drunken sailers to set the jpy/usd onto a downward trend. If your currency is higher than your long term objective just keep printing and buying until it falls and if does not, just charge rent on the assets.
I caught a flouder today (a legal one- not many of them to be caught on the east coast). Just had it for dinner. It was delicious. And it wasn't even radioactive. Mercury level probably a bit high, but who wants to live forever anyway?
Japan what? Rockefeller Center what? I caught a fish today and I ate it. It was a good day.
Good night, Japan, wherever you are.
i picked raspberrys from my garden today and ate them
they were delicious
then i got stung by a bald faced hornet and went into anaphalactic shock
still a better day than japan is/was/will be having
Nah, that couldn't be an omen.
I'm with you brotherman,
I built a zip line in my back yard and sent my kids down the line. They had a blast and I too.
The best part, while Japan money-men are jumping out of windows, I was having a good time.
A tale of two cities....
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times....
My life does not revolve around Ben, jack. Timmy, Janet or any of those folks. I have noticed one thing though.... THEY DONT CALL THEMSELVES PUBLIC SERVANTS!! They have reserved the term LEADER.
I am my families leader and no me else is involved,
Yeah sell a sinking ship and buy another. BRILLIANT.
As Mr. Bass said, they have to get out of the yen.
I think that if the GOVERNMENT just assassinated every drug dealing criminal and outlawed every criminal gang (ie - crips, bloods, ms13, etc...), I would feel much safer.
But then there would be one drug dealing criminal gang left; the US Government.
My bad...
I forgot the SARC tags
They should buy Detroit and build a new tokyo........
All the fucking Asian banks been buying large stakes in US banks! their banks go we go with them!
"China Said to Study U.S. Property Investments With Reserves" - May 27, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-27/china-said-to-study-investing-reserves-in-u-s-property-market.html
Comes with a free statue of that guy who is shrugging.
CA should confiscate Pebble Beach and sell the biach to the Japs... Economic problems solved.....
Well that's one thing that will please the grey generation with their housing assets set to fake rise again, if you can't print enough force others to buy. London is over priced as is and has been for years thanks to foreign money.
The NY real estate market is hot. #ForbiddenPlanetHot