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The SP500 ignores all reality and always goes higher.
until it doesn't
There are both right because....it bazarro world....
So let's get this straight... Gold's going down because the improving economy will be able to survive 'normalised'interest rates.... so we're looking at positive real rates of interest. Gold doesn't have yield, and all the risk has been taken out of the financial system *snort* so, yeah, I can see that.
So if the economy is improving... why is silver down too?
Hmmmmm.
They "taper" to keep your assholes from slamming shut, just like the turds they are...
Sell in May and walk the fuck away was the correct mkt
Three auctions today.
Welcome to the Twilight Zone of the Matrix
If the FED keeps doing God's work this well into the forseeable future, we will all be jerking off the dog to feed the cat before too long.
Does that really work? Cause frankly, cat food is getting a bit expensive. And I love my dog.
That's a healthy rotation out of bonds into stocks because of the deep value and great growth prospects stocks bring to the table.....Bwhahahahah
Break even is going up, which seems to correspond now to relief for equities
Equities wear clown shoes, bonds tell the real story.
Barring a triple lehman I am just looking for a small bond rally to unload. I don't think I am alone. I think the market, despite dick fisher's threats, is going to force bernak's hand on the taper one way or another.
The only safe bet right now is to sell the miners. 3x bear fund is apparently ALWAYS safe, as the only thing that's indisputable in the current market is that 'gold miners are icky'.
I think the Bernank was thinking Taper Talk was going to Monkey hammer stocks and drive bonds down as a refuge play, and be able to exit out of QE that way.... OOOPS....
Stronger dollar, and a destroyed housing market will play havoc with stock prices at some point.....
I thought I saw Bonds turn yesterday, but was grossly wrong. End of month window dressing, bonds could get really whacked to 3% on the 10yr in the first week of July...... then it will get interesting.
Bernank could easily have a -1,000 point down day if that's what he wanted.
I think Bernanke can Jerk the Market e.g. a 1000 pts down, i dont think he can create a somewhat orderly 20% correction..... I guess I am saying bubbles pop, they dont deflate....
Barring a triple lehman I am just looking for a small bond rally to unload. I don't think I am alone. I think the market, despite dick fisher's threats, is going to force bernak's hand on the taper one way or another.
I've pretty much perfected my ability to predict the market. No matter what I do, I'll lose money. Even if I do the exact opposite of what I was intending to do in the first place.
Faber said gold and bonds may be a good buy, equities he's not so positive about. It looks to me like Bernanke is setting up a deflationary environment so his successor can then continue with the printing press.
Deflationary environement in what pray tell? Oil isnt getting cheaper, neither is a pound of burger........ dont confuse the destruction of wealth (home equity) and deflation....
Gator bonds are well bid today. I think yields head a bit lower from here before the next move up. but it could go either way
Bonds were bid but still leaked higher..... suspect some brave yen carry trade souls, hoping the Yen depreciates faster than bonds blow up... Looking at the 30 mortgage yr at 4.46 today versus 4.02... Damage will be done shortly.... as was pointed out here yesterday....
I don't even know what half the chats are saying any more. I just know to look for the Gold line at the bottom of any chart. Doesn't matter the chart it's always there at the bottom.
Ben "the velvet hammer" Bernanke. there are now many assets the Fed can purchase at an EXTREME discount ("distressed" i think is the term) and at will. VERY powerful institution...probably never more powerful than it is right now given all the macro/micro going on. (although it was said of the Fed of the 20's that "the members played pool with the planets" back then.) eh. the Yankees are still in third place and i fail to see the hitting. clearly some twenty somethings are in order (save for Mariano who is starting to look like the Babe Ruth of pitching. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml "he invented something." in Babe's case it was the "Home Run.")
This China thing could be the lehman we have been waiting for. If only because it's so obvious. I remember in 2008 when cds started blowing out. Everyone was walking around guessing whether it was AIG, Merrill etc etc. but yet it was talked about like it would never happen, right up till it happened.
Fonz, I am good friends with a prominent US-based, Chinese Hedge Fund Manager who is pulling out all of his funds from the mainland. I know other Chinese Americans who are doing the same. There's a real panic brewing that the Politburo is clearly trying to contain but will ultimately fail to do so IMO.
Thanks Master. I love the people on this site.
Going to take a wild guess that he's pulling into the USD. I know a lot of people "going to the mat". Just stay the fuck out of MMMFs.
Let's hope you are right.
As an amateur I expect a week long pause until something newsworthy happens. The rising yields are bad but they're still moderate and so may not take toll this month or next. That's my expectation anyway.
Gold is not moving so whatever will make it move up or down is not yet on the horizon, no?
@NP you're right on, fecal fan time around the holiday coming up, not before. Retail is going to start stampeding out of bond funds pretty soon here (already seeing some decent outflow activity, which hasn't happened in a long ass time), and they're going to cash.
Today's market thus far is the biggest snoozer of the year -- silly sine wave with a diminishing amplitude hugging VWAP like a child's stuffed panda bear, stopping at the half-pivot (not even enough energy or conviction for pivot-pinging ?!), every indicator whipsawing but with enough of a general downtrend in Vol to make shorting inadvisable -- in short, virtually untradable, unless you got the little 10:30 mini-spurt. Will probably get credit for another triple digit Tuesday, but unless we burst forth to the 140+ DOW mark, the bulls should be ashamed and immediately stop preening.
The biggest snoozer of the year? Maybe you missed all of January, 70% of February, and all of March.
It has been the worst year for trading, hasn't it ? Though I seem to recall (given I saw every 5-minute bar for the past two years) we'd often see a tradable 10:10 to 12:30 trend in the 1Q, then a strong give-back from 12:30 to 1:30 then, after the mid-day doldrums, a decent continuation move either at 2:30 or the inevitable 3:35 ramp. Sadly, it was twice a week tops. (As I type this they're selling volatility and attempting to ramp, but I suspect we won't see new daily highs, and will fizzle back to VWAP -- the ADX is just too low to support much, it seems.)
It has been quite slow, for sure. Average range was around 8 ES handles for a 20 day period at one point. Tradeable but not overly so. Today we are sitting at 14, and it only seems slow because we have had 20 and 30 handle ranges recently.
Makes sense -- can't ignore the impact of context. I trade Russell 2K-based instruments, which fly around a bit more than the ES, so today's like a sensory deprivation tank.
I loves me some divergence.
Time to buy some more barbarous relics, and some copper jaceted security items.
Bullish on commodities.
Fuck the burning paper with a stick up a dead Bernanke's ass.
Perhaps "which is right" will have to wait until Thursday when Dudley and Powell start flapping their jaws. But if history is any indication, I'd bet there are some stops above S&P 1590 just waiting to be taken, so I doubt we roll over from here.
Taper on, taper off.
Wax on, whack off.
maybe gold/pm reflects spike in bond yields whereas market reflects the fact maybe 1trillion$ in qe still to come?
Bend over and feel the taper!
The taper off market is correct in its assumption; terribly wrong in its response.
Monty Python and the Holy Grail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Xd_zkMEgkI
.
"the violence inherent in the system." m.p.
.
The Judge Should Know
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWFVUxjpKQY
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" ..I got a sneakin' suspicion baby
somethin' goin' on a judge should know." j.r.
.
who is to judge?