Zillow 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Skyrockets By Massive 50 bps In One Week To 4.38%, Most Since 2011

Tyler Durden's picture


Goodbye housing (non)recovery... except for those private equity-cum-landlord firms and offshore oligarchs who pay all cash of course.


Just out from Zillow:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow(R) Mortgage Marketplace is currently 4.38 percent, up fifty basis points from 3.88 percent at this time last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered between 3.82 and 4 percent late last week, before spiking up near the current rate over the weekend.

This represents the highest rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace since July 2011.

"Last week rates spiked up to levels not seen since July 2011 after Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke reiterated the Fed's commitment to scale back its stimulus program later this year," said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. "This coming week, we expect rates will be volatile as the market recalibrates and determines whether we've reached a new plateau near 4.5 percent or whether this week's rate spike was an overreaction that warrants a downward adjustment."

Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace site, and reflect the most recent changes in the market. These are not marketing rates, or a weekly survey.

The rate for a 15-year fixed home loan is currently 3.41 percent, while the rate for a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is 3.18 percent.

* * *

And once more, as a reminder, the impact on house affordability as a function of interest rate:

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Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:24 | 3691867 ekm
ekm's picture

Tapering intact since March 2013.

Full halt soon

Unwinding coming

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:35 | 3691912 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

So, basically the market is saying: Ben, you fucked up.   

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:37 | 3691923 ekm
ekm's picture

The opposite.

Ben got the order to not intervene (as much?) and the market is let to work on itself, partially.


Full halt = market is let to work on its own totally


Unwinding = Fed intervenes to under the QE idiocy (comng soon)

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:41 | 3691937 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nope never. The fed will never unwind that massive balance sheet. The very best that will happen, and I doubt they do, is that they let it run off.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:46 | 3691955 ekm
ekm's picture

If they let expire the bonds they own, the printed cash won't be sterilized.

That money has already created commodity super inflation and it is making allies do currency swaps with China.


That decision is political and not at all economic

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:00 | 3692020 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Exactly. No one even Ben wants to be responsible for losing the dollars reserve status.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:10 | 3692065 ekm
ekm's picture

it all comes down to that one little thing:


Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:16 | 3692092 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture


clearly not what he or anyone wants as their legacy

higher rates coming to a theater near you

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:28 | 3692107 ekm
ekm's picture

soon, almost there


people forget the only reason to DEMAND A CURRENCY: INTEREST RATE

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:19 | 3692094 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

When the dike springs more leaks than you have fingers and toes - you have to triage the worst leaks.  That's what's happening now - triage.

Shouldn't be long now before we have another big leg down. . .

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:23 | 3692106 ekm
ekm's picture


Extremely well synthesized

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:31 | 3692130 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

Gonna be hard to get a mortgage in Potemkin Village! Better off couch surfing until the second shoe drops.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:49 | 3691963 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just pull the rug out suddenly one morning....the perfect plan....NO ONE is expecting the Corzining that is coming! It will be quite a day when everyone gets up to log into their accounts and check futures and they just see 'Markets Closed Until Further Notice'. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:49 | 3691964 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Doc we called it. Just a matter of time eh?


"In one of the latest efforts, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. HIG +2.23%is requiring owners of certain of its guarantees to move at least 40% of their money into bond funds—and lose their guarantee if they fail to transfer the money out of stock funds.

Some financial advisers say they worry that clients they aren't able to reach will inadvertently lose the valuable guarantees, possibly exposing the advisers to litigation."

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:54 | 3691985 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yep we sure did. I've been watching Hartford and Lincoln for a long time...Met and Pru got themselves into a mess too. The kicker is they are forcing them out of stocks and into bonds and there is probablt even more risk doing that. if the insurance companies can't hedge their risks due to low rates, why do they want their clients in bonds for that same reason? 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:56 | 3692005 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

my question remains....who the hell is dumping these bonds? If it ain't the fed, the banks, or the insurance companies...China?

Or are the banks just getting positioned to crush everyone on the ride back up to a debt crisis?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:59 | 3692018 ekm
ekm's picture

primary dealers and pimco have crap to sell and looking for suckers

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:02 | 3692027 cossack55
cossack55's picture

If the banks are involved, then everyone has a bullseye on their rectum.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:55 | 3691999 ekm
ekm's picture

good call

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:55 | 3692003 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Floating Rate Notes, The FED is going to refinance their balance sheet to shorter term duration notes and rig the interest rates on the FRNs in collusion with the Treasury so as to not bankrupt the US Government in the process LIBOR style to unwind the balance sheet of Treasuries. They can and probably will do that regardless of any tapering but it doesn't start until 2014 when the first FRN auctions are supposed to commence.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:45 | 3691956 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

More like QEHi5 before year-end.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:35 | 3691916 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture


Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:38 | 3691928 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture



Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:40 | 3691935 ekm
ekm's picture

I can't know when.

I know though, that oil has been about $90 for 2 years now and world is bypassing USD by doing currency swaps, including allies like UK, France Australia New Zealand with..............china


Real economy has been in full contraction the moment crude oil crossed $90

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:45 | 3691953 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If you remeber when the one was campaigning he thought that $4.00 gas was just about right for the American people. Barring a catastrophe oil won't be allowed to go bellow $85.00 a barrel.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:48 | 3691967 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Dr. E,

If oil is allowed to go below $85 per barrel, it won't make life grand.  It will decrease world oil extraction, though.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:48 | 3691974 ekm
ekm's picture

there's too too much oil being produced and .......stored.

It will be dumped

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:56 | 3692006 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's not going to happen. With cheap oil the one can never hope to get any clean energy initiatives through.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:14 | 3692082 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

With the collapse will come a flood of suppressd energy technologies...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:48 | 3691970 walküre
walküre's picture

this is peak oil essentially

oil was up yesterday when all else sold off

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:57 | 3692011 ekm
ekm's picture

That's what happened in 2008 also, it actually kept going higher until............................................

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 23:45 | 3693515 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

ah, the old 'inflation' game again....BB is one smart cookie. he has to get the housing bubble reinflated but not create inflation....i think this is his cue...housing started to take off again so he is putting the brakes on it so as to only flatten to slightly increase home values.....otherwise, boom, oil will take off again and the whole thing will come crashing down....


he is smart....but not a genius....and the markets will not be controlled.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:50 | 3691980 Fiat Burner
Fiat Burner's picture

A halt to QE doesn't guarantee a reversal of those currency swaps.  That's the US military's job.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:52 | 3691988 ekm
ekm's picture

Do not disagree.

It's a mandatory step though, IMO

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:05 | 3692040 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Send the PMS women warriors in.  Those babes will sort out all those swapping swine.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:25 | 3691870 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

soooooooooooooooooooo next months confidence and housing data will start to reflect this.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:44 | 3691949 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah right. The confidence of sheep is sky high even when they are about to fall off a cliff. All is good to them unless they are already falling and they see the ground and their little brain has enough power to realize that they are fucked...

Hell one of my bros in finance told me this week-end... home prices cannot go down! Even if rates rise and QE stops! Why? Because my colleagues and Bernanke told me so! The amount of delusion/denial out there is quite astonishing... even among the ``experts``.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:26 | 3691872 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Well, everyone that could refi did at lower rates. Now that they are locked in, all they have to do is avoid selling their house for the next 10 years and they won't have to realize any losses. It should be easy since no one will be buying anyway.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:25 | 3692111 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

+1.  Actually in my nabe, it's the Chinese buying homes.  Seriously.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:26 | 3691873 TheMayor
TheMayor's picture

Sell every rally, BTFD is dead. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:26 | 3691874 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's okay because that just means the refi business will dry up and banks will lend more for home mortgages. That's what CNBS told me anyway, and I trust them with my life.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:27 | 3691875 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

my mortgage is 4.625%. I was excited to get it. Now it's a catastrophe.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:31 | 3691892 X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

Pffft. i signed my mortage in oct of 2009 @ 5.25% fixed! At the time that was pretty low! Then it slowly dropped and dropped from then until now down to 3 some %. Now its going back up. It is what it is. Ill just pay more on the principle over the 30 year life and pay it off early.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:49 | 3691976 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

5.25% is pretty low historically, below old usury rates.

Dont beat yourself  up just becaus deals got a bit better later.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:05 | 3692041 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Fonz, where are you, Nassau County?  I could never afford to live there, as much as I like the proximity to beaches.  (Interest + TAXES) * 30 years = 2.5x - 3x your buy price on the home.  For that I hold my cash and invest. 

It's a crying shame ... a broad swath of the entire American generation is hereby scalped.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:31 | 3692134 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah I am in Nassau and yeah I can't afford to live here. My wife just insisted that we re do a bathroom. Every weekend for the last 3 months looked like this.


Tue, 06/25/2013 - 17:19 | 3692419 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture


2 weeks, 2 weeks ...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:29 | 3691888 SILVERGEDDON

So - does that mean the non modification HAMP programs not being used by the major banks might come into play finally ? 

Doesn't matter - all the folks who might have been helped got foreclosed on anyway.

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:51 | 3691986 YC2
YC2's picture

Someone close to me has tried extensively over months and months (and to no avail) to use this program.  From what I have seen HAMP is not helping anyone and it is generally a nightmare to attempt to use it.

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