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Zillow 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Skyrockets By Massive 50 bps In One Week To 4.38%, Most Since 2011
Goodbye housing (non)recovery... except for those private equity-cum-landlord firms and offshore oligarchs who pay all cash of course.
Just out from Zillow:
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow(R) Mortgage Marketplace is currently 4.38 percent, up fifty basis points from 3.88 percent at this time last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered between 3.82 and 4 percent late last week, before spiking up near the current rate over the weekend.
This represents the highest rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace since July 2011.
"Last week rates spiked up to levels not seen since July 2011 after Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke reiterated the Fed's commitment to scale back its stimulus program later this year," said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. "This coming week, we expect rates will be volatile as the market recalibrates and determines whether we've reached a new plateau near 4.5 percent or whether this week's rate spike was an overreaction that warrants a downward adjustment."
Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace site, and reflect the most recent changes in the market. These are not marketing rates, or a weekly survey.
The rate for a 15-year fixed home loan is currently 3.41 percent, while the rate for a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is 3.18 percent.
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And once more, as a reminder, the impact on house affordability as a function of interest rate:
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Tapering intact since March 2013.
Full halt soon
Unwinding coming
So, basically the market is saying: Ben, you fucked up.
The opposite.
Ben got the order to not intervene (as much?) and the market is let to work on itself, partially.
Full halt = market is let to work on its own totally
Unwinding = Fed intervenes to under the QE idiocy (comng soon)
Nope never. The fed will never unwind that massive balance sheet. The very best that will happen, and I doubt they do, is that they let it run off.
If they let expire the bonds they own, the printed cash won't be sterilized.
That money has already created commodity super inflation and it is making allies do currency swaps with China.
That decision is political and not at all economic
Exactly. No one even Ben wants to be responsible for losing the dollars reserve status.
it all comes down to that one little thing:
RESERVE STATUS
yes!
clearly not what he or anyone wants as their legacy
higher rates coming to a theater near you
soon, almost there
people forget the only reason to DEMAND A CURRENCY: INTEREST RATE
When the dike springs more leaks than you have fingers and toes - you have to triage the worst leaks. That's what's happening now - triage.
Shouldn't be long now before we have another big leg down. . .
'triage'
Extremely well synthesized
Gonna be hard to get a mortgage in Potemkin Village! Better off couch surfing until the second shoe drops.
Just pull the rug out suddenly one morning....the perfect plan....NO ONE is expecting the Corzining that is coming! It will be quite a day when everyone gets up to log into their accounts and check futures and they just see 'Markets Closed Until Further Notice'.
Doc we called it. Just a matter of time eh?
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2013/06/25/report-variable-annuity-benefits-at-risk/
"In one of the latest efforts, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. HIG +2.23%is requiring owners of certain of its guarantees to move at least 40% of their money into bond funds—and lose their guarantee if they fail to transfer the money out of stock funds.
Some financial advisers say they worry that clients they aren't able to reach will inadvertently lose the valuable guarantees, possibly exposing the advisers to litigation."
Yep we sure did. I've been watching Hartford and Lincoln for a long time...Met and Pru got themselves into a mess too. The kicker is they are forcing them out of stocks and into bonds and there is probablt even more risk doing that. if the insurance companies can't hedge their risks due to low rates, why do they want their clients in bonds for that same reason?
my question remains....who the hell is dumping these bonds? If it ain't the fed, the banks, or the insurance companies...China?
Or are the banks just getting positioned to crush everyone on the ride back up to a debt crisis?
primary dealers and pimco have crap to sell and looking for suckers
If the banks are involved, then everyone has a bullseye on their rectum.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-25/freddie-mac-said-to-plan-start-of-mortgage-risk-sharing-deals.html
good call
Floating Rate Notes, The FED is going to refinance their balance sheet to shorter term duration notes and rig the interest rates on the FRNs in collusion with the Treasury so as to not bankrupt the US Government in the process LIBOR style to unwind the balance sheet of Treasuries. They can and probably will do that regardless of any tapering but it doesn't start until 2014 when the first FRN auctions are supposed to commence.
More like QEHi5 before year-end.
When?
JUST WHEN SCARLET JOHANSEN'S BEVERLY HILLS MEDITERRANEAN-STYLED HOUSE COMES ON THE MARKET!
I AM PISSED OFF!
I can't know when.
I know though, that oil has been about $90 for 2 years now and world is bypassing USD by doing currency swaps, including allies like UK, France Australia New Zealand with..............china
Real economy has been in full contraction the moment crude oil crossed $90
If you remeber when the one was campaigning he thought that $4.00 gas was just about right for the American people. Barring a catastrophe oil won't be allowed to go bellow $85.00 a barrel.
Dr. E,
If oil is allowed to go below $85 per barrel, it won't make life grand. It will decrease world oil extraction, though.
there's too too much oil being produced and .......stored.
It will be dumped
That's not going to happen. With cheap oil the one can never hope to get any clean energy initiatives through.
With the collapse will come a flood of suppressd energy technologies...
this is peak oil essentially
oil was up yesterday when all else sold off
That's what happened in 2008 also, it actually kept going higher until............................................
ah, the old 'inflation' game again....BB is one smart cookie. he has to get the housing bubble reinflated but not create inflation....i think this is his cue...housing started to take off again so he is putting the brakes on it so as to only flatten to slightly increase home values.....otherwise, boom, oil will take off again and the whole thing will come crashing down....
he is smart....but not a genius....and the markets will not be controlled.
A halt to QE doesn't guarantee a reversal of those currency swaps. That's the US military's job.
Do not disagree.
It's a mandatory step though, IMO
Send the PMS women warriors in. Those babes will sort out all those swapping swine.
soooooooooooooooooooo next months confidence and housing data will start to reflect this.
Yeah right. The confidence of sheep is sky high even when they are about to fall off a cliff. All is good to them unless they are already falling and they see the ground and their little brain has enough power to realize that they are fucked...
Hell one of my bros in finance told me this week-end... home prices cannot go down! Even if rates rise and QE stops! Why? Because my colleagues and Bernanke told me so! The amount of delusion/denial out there is quite astonishing... even among the ``experts``.
Well, everyone that could refi did at lower rates. Now that they are locked in, all they have to do is avoid selling their house for the next 10 years and they won't have to realize any losses. It should be easy since no one will be buying anyway.
+1. Actually in my nabe, it's the Chinese buying homes. Seriously.
Sell every rally, BTFD is dead.
That's okay because that just means the refi business will dry up and banks will lend more for home mortgages. That's what CNBS told me anyway, and I trust them with my life.
my mortgage is 4.625%. I was excited to get it. Now it's a catastrophe.
Pffft. i signed my mortage in oct of 2009 @ 5.25% fixed! At the time that was pretty low! Then it slowly dropped and dropped from then until now down to 3 some %. Now its going back up. It is what it is. Ill just pay more on the principle over the 30 year life and pay it off early.
5.25% is pretty low historically, below old usury rates.
Dont beat yourself up just becaus deals got a bit better later.
Fonz, where are you, Nassau County? I could never afford to live there, as much as I like the proximity to beaches. (Interest + TAXES) * 30 years = 2.5x - 3x your buy price on the home. For that I hold my cash and invest.
It's a crying shame ... a broad swath of the entire American generation is hereby scalped.
Yeah I am in Nassau and yeah I can't afford to live here. My wife just insisted that we re do a bathroom. Every weekend for the last 3 months looked like this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdYPxFMhEkE
BEEN THERE DONE THAT.
2 weeks, 2 weeks ...
So - does that mean the non modification HAMP programs not being used by the major banks might come into play finally ?
Doesn't matter - all the folks who might have been helped got foreclosed on anyway.
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.
Someone close to me has tried extensively over months and months (and to no avail) to use this program. From what I have seen HAMP is not helping anyone and it is generally a nightmare to attempt to use it.
Screw HAMP. Better to rely on HEMP.
"It is better to have dope in times of no money, than money in times of no dope."
Freddie Freak
I used it a year and a half ago to go from 6% to 4.75%. And I had equity + good credit. The trouble is you can only do it once. I should have waited for the 3.5%
Only and only in modern economics that: higher prices are better than lower prices.
I can never get over this stupidity and propaganda
Debt...without price appreciation you die.
Exactly. Hence QE4eva.
Inflation: German engineering, at its finest!
Indeed, without a resultant increase in wages/income an increase in things like housing and oil are actually detrimental to the economy. "Wealth effect" is for morons as it is not wealth, but merely the perception of wealth, which actually causes people to mis allocate capital rather than make smart decisions with their money.
We live in idiocracy.
"Brought to you by Carls Jr."
Extremely well formulated
But I heard just today on the radio that home prices are going up everywhere and that's called a "recovery" in housing!
Here's a little wake-up to all the 15yr amd 30 yr mortgage holders. You are simply renters on a rent to own plan with none of the benefits of having the landlord take care of shit that breaks. Oh and you get that freebie from Big Daddy Gov in terms of a write off. The bank (or whoever) owns the place. And while you are at it try not paying the property tax and see what you "own".
Housing is one of the greatest examples of how completelly fuct up our economy really is. The idea that rising prices is a net benefit is absolutely insane. Those people who bought high and are either underwater or lose the house are no different than any other investor who loses invested money. Too bad. The idea that the rest of the popualtion continues to get fuct by rising housing costs so that those priveleged few who made shitty choices are saved from the consequences of their actions is, well, typical American bullshit I guess.
Good luck getting that rate. The young doctor down the street checked out loans at the Bank and was told "the best we can do for you is 6-3/4%." He said he has exellent credit but they told him does not matter...that's their present mortgage rate for "excellent credit score folks."
Reality meets Fiction....painful when a Sheeple realizes the diff.
You mean they're not lending out that Fed capital?
Yeah i have thought the exact same thing. The rates were down as low as 3% for a while. But every time I heard that I kept thinking "yeah but ill bet NO ONE qualifies for that rate." My credit is pretty good over 750+ on all three credit agencies. No negatives. No late payments. Nothing. And with that the best I was able to get in 2009 was 5.25% 30 year fixed. I wish i could break into the 800 realm but no matter what i do i cant seem to get much higher than where i am now. I dont think anyone has a 3% rate.
Wrong -- 3% 15 yr fixed refi January 2012.
I jumped the gun a little, if I waited a year I would have gotten 2.5%.
But I have 60% equity and both me and the wife had identical 808 scores in 1/12.
I happy at this rate
Is this the troll or the man behind the troll speaking?
3.875% - 30yr fixed. Here.
It **was** real. 3.375% 30yr fixed. Good luck getting that now.
And I know several other people who got lower 3% ish refi-s 30yr fixed.
Bad troll! Stay in character!
BTW, last I checked, 15 years is not 30.
Need to be in CU. I'm @ 2.75.
My wife owns a small independent brokerage. In the transactions she represented last year all but a few had a rate for 30 yrs greater than 4.25%. She didn't do a single 15 year, it was either cash or 30yr. She did around 10 USDA loans, which are 100% financing with rates under 4.0%. You have to have above a 680 for the best rate with that loan I believe. They'll even let you add in the closing costs, so it is really greater than 100% financing. It accounts for 75% of her business, the others use 5% conventional with pmi due to FHA increasing all the fees/pmi or are in investors with cash/20% down. She didn't do a single transaction where the borrower did a conventional with 20% down last year, only one the year before, if it was a non investment property. The rate increase is going to hurt, but overall she could call it a year with whats on the books and be just fine. She has had a stellar year by anyones standards up to date.
Doc must have shit credit, which isn't uncommon. Doesn't matter the trade, some people can't manange 10 dollars or 10 thousand.
People buy the payment, house prices have no choice but to drop with higher interest rates.
I just got 3.75% 15 year APR, with a 30 year close out.
Last house I will ever own. Ride this mess into the sunset.
So this means I raise the price on my condo in Denver....Case -Shiller said I should....and put out real estate adds in Russian.....that should do it..they like the cold winters...
Have to love it:
"This coming week, we expect rates will be volatile as the market recalibrates and determines whether we've reached a new plateau near 4.5 percent or whether this week's rate spike was an overreaction that warrants a downward adjustment."
What about the obvious continuation and going higher? Not possible??? Just wait.
I pay cash for everything. Interest rates don't matter, except on CD's to me, which of course suck. Hopefully that will change.
You are aware that cash only folks are considered terrirrrists. Yes?
Hey, Obama already GPS'd my paid for home about 4 years ago when he sent his temp Census worker goons out here (I was there when they tried anyways, they were about 30 yards off). Since they already know everything about me, bank accounts, voting record, ZH postings (only place I bother), TSP accounts, tax records, which way my dick hangs, I figure who cares anymore. They already have my drone coordinates locked in anyways.
Yanno, step-daughter is buying a house--a fixer-upper--in SC for $34K. Banks said they would not make money on the loan; credit union basicically gave her the equvalent of a car loan. This was last week. Hubby thought 5.19 percent was high. I told him, just you wait. It'll seem cheap really soon. Sorry to say I was right.
Oh no, rates are starting to rise, they might be 5,6, or 7 % soon. I'd better hurry and finally buy that house I've been putting off.
This may be how many people will start thinking, so a rise in rates could actually lead to more short term demand, no? Maybe?
Sure it's all good as long as Gubment hurries up and starts it's free money for home mortgage program soon.
Mr. Chairman, get to work!
That's Mizz to you
I fuckin hope so. My house has been on the market for a year.
I'll buy when prices drop 50%. Who cares about rates.
Things are going to get real ugly real fast if the Fed doesn't announce explicitly that tapering is not going to happen. The longer taper talk goes on Ben is putting himself in a box that will force him to increase POMO purchases to keep things from going to hell.
Higher rates. Lower home prices. Will help cash buyers.
Wait that sounds like GOLD !
Had a few beers now! been following zh for last 3 years, need some sort of advice off people on here. i have a few interest only mortgages all from 07 onwards. i have a joinery business and bought "cheap" property, did it up remortgaged rented out and bought again. all houses have no equity but good rental income while rates are low. Bought few thousand oz silver and 15 oz gold over last 4 years up and down. whats my next move? stick tight?
have a few more beers, load the phys on your boat and sail away
boat is on its last legs, dont think it will make another trip
that's between you, your god and your boat
wanted something other than god, maybe something real
your wife or the lamp post, whatever or whoever you trust your secret stash with... to some that is their "god"
the lunatic pundits preaching the yoy housing increase of 12% have NO FEAR of a housing crash because of high interest rates....they view this as healthy and see housing momentum moving prices higher even with rates heading north.....one factor they cite is supply.......sentiment is still ROCK SOLID OPTIMISTIC..........wow, if the bernank pulls this off.....getting rates higher with nary a concern.....and nary a dent in home sales/price increase.....i will be forced to bow to him.................
".....i will be forced to bow to him"
I read that as having an L in there at first and had to read it again. Careful.
Buyers are investors or speculators for the most part. Cheap money looking for yield. Rising rates extinguish the yield on leveraged assets. It will end in carnage.
No bowing needed.
yeah, i told myself that the last umpteenth years already....and the sly bastard is kicking the crap out of all naysayers who claim he couldnt pull this off....or that off................how many people commented that 2.40 on the 10yr is armageddon....that 2.50 is armageddon..........ummm no..................btw..........im still waitiing for comex to default.....i keep hearing that gold cant drop anymore because physical demand would wipe it out..................im getting fucking cranky about all this shit already.............bernanke is walking on water....................somebody drain the fucking lake already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I would love to disagree but you are absolutely right.
thing is...i HATE being right about this......................
Yeah, I have been thinking the same thing what you just said. There is a possibility that this could go on for a very long time.
Methinks that the Corporate and Government Overlords KNOW who has gold, silver, your income and an analysis of what it will take to part you from your precious metals.
All of this central spying has to be used for something. My bet is that the banks KNOW what you got since they are underwriting the code breaking.
From what I have seen in my area most of the buys are in cash... so an investor takes a hit if the price goes lower, but that won't hurt banks unless they lent money for the sale. Banks are much more cautious lenders these days... if have been through a few loans and lately they are balking at tiny inconsistencies on your record. No more NINJA loans.
I don't know if that's representative of the larger market. Have you seen data for US wide sales and whether they are cash transactions or loans?
All is well... NOT!!
Meh, even during the bubble years, the 30 years was at 5-6%... so we ain't there yet... at all.
That 30 year interest curve has a bunch of places where the interest rate quickly spikes by about a percent or so and then drops back to the old level within a year or so. As much as I hate to say it, I kind of feel that we might be experiencing another one of those.
.
Will this finally stop the HARP refi solicitations from coming in the mail? This country has turned into one giant financial Ponzi scam.
Thirty year fixed rates are a lot higher than that now. More like 4.75-5.00% now. Rates jumped 1% from Wednesday to Monday.
i can attest to that - wife and i are looking to purchase our first home - locked into 3.5% rate, dropped off paperwork yesterday to the mortgage office with our contact proclaiming we were some very lucky folks - rate had jumped up to 4.65% for a 30-year fixed
Buying my LAST house now, you might want to look at ARMs (not kidding). Looked at 10 year 3.5% and 15 year 3.75% with no points.
Shit, no one knows what things will look like 10-15 years from now anyway.
It's ok, another crisis will happen way sooner than 30 years from now, and interest rates will go down to negative 5.00% (since 0% didn''t work last time).
Who honestly thinks this system is going to survive 30 years?
be lucky if it survives 1.
'The [morning] *Bernanke Line' (over/under): >4.5% Sell / <3.25% Buy /hold<nc%>/
I spoke with a retired banking regulator about the housing market. Smart guy, told me he sees a return of the recession since we never dealt with it last time. But oddly, he suspects that due to reduced building over the last several years and population increase there would still be reasonable demand for houses going forward. Just passing on his 2 cents.
Right...just as long as the jobless public can get some free money checks from the govt to secure that housing it should all be good.
People are now in a delusion that the 6 year life support coma patient is about to hop off the table, rip out his hundreds of I.V.'s, and sprint to a NY Marathon win!
Look - it's Mr. Recovery!: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU2yt6wOoK0
Well, sumunabeech....there goes that VA refi I was considering. Kept dragging my feet like an idiot trying to find if there was any special 'fine print' allowed in new refis/mortgages as a result of the Save Da Bankstahs Act. The kind of language that basically says:
At any future moment, for any reason, we can not only take your house, but also hold you legally accountable for the loan balance in the event you figure out we screwed you.
Naturally, such language would be worded in flowery skittle-shitting unicorn legalese.
One question though.....can the fed ACTUALLY withdraw the needle at this point? If interest rates are allowed to rise, thus destroying what's left of the housing market....how in the hell is the fed going to keep from buying $85+ billion of MBS every month? Or if you prefer, how in the hell will they be able to convince ANYONE else to buy them? Is the scene set up satisfactorily enough for TPTB to implode the whole system and send us into a hyper-depression so they can scoop up assets on the cheap? I'm not so sure all their ducks are in a row just yet?
P.S. Fuck you, Bernanke. You and all your life-sucking hellspawn colleagues.
I'm thinking of incorporating as a bank and buying half of detroit for 100k at the fed funds rate which is close to negative.
If its good for GS its good enough for me
I still wouldn't touch mbs with a ten foot pole. The gubbermint+fed have permanently dorked up both the housing and bond markets.
If you believe that I have an empty Chinese mega city to sell you...
On a side note, should it take 30 years to pay off a house, wtf?
The "equity-cum-landlord firms" were planning on flipping to the little guy who needs a mortgage. Looks like they won't be able to now. I guess they can still rent it out. Except the renter still lives off of credit and rising rates have sucked even more money from him. He will have less money to pay his rent. Looks like the only winner here will be the local tax collectors. They will be sending the landlords a 30% higher tax bill.....
A good friend of mine just cooked his own ass by buying an Emeryville condo last month; right at what I personally think is the top-tick. I wish I felt better about it but I don't and he didn't ask until it was too late, so ... he paid no attention to anything deeper than Yahoo! then all at once, with the help of course of a very knowledgeable, very honest in-law, displayed this sudden conviction, farsightedness and acumen and shelled out his life savings. Somehow, he knows the SF Bay Area is going to add 2MM to its population in the next ten years. Yeegads I hope not.
The very idea that it is possible to buy a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 4% on a free market is absurd. When I read things like that I realise just how corrupted by Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac anf ZIRP the US housing market is.