Zillow 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Skyrockets By Massive 50 bps In One Week To 4.38%, Most Since 2011

Tyler Durden's picture

Goodbye housing (non)recovery... except for those private equity-cum-landlord firms and offshore oligarchs who pay all cash of course.


Just out from Zillow:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow(R) Mortgage Marketplace is currently 4.38 percent, up fifty basis points from 3.88 percent at this time last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered between 3.82 and 4 percent late last week, before spiking up near the current rate over the weekend.

This represents the highest rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace since July 2011.

"Last week rates spiked up to levels not seen since July 2011 after Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke reiterated the Fed's commitment to scale back its stimulus program later this year," said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. "This coming week, we expect rates will be volatile as the market recalibrates and determines whether we've reached a new plateau near 4.5 percent or whether this week's rate spike was an overreaction that warrants a downward adjustment."

Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace site, and reflect the most recent changes in the market. These are not marketing rates, or a weekly survey.

The rate for a 15-year fixed home loan is currently 3.41 percent, while the rate for a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is 3.18 percent.

* * *

And once more, as a reminder, the impact on house affordability as a function of interest rate:

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ekm's picture

Tapering intact since March 2013.

Full halt soon

Unwinding coming

slaughterer's picture

So, basically the market is saying: Ben, you fucked up.   

ekm's picture

The opposite.

Ben got the order to not intervene (as much?) and the market is let to work on itself, partially.


Full halt = market is let to work on its own totally


Unwinding = Fed intervenes to under the QE idiocy (comng soon)

Dr. Engali's picture

Nope never. The fed will never unwind that massive balance sheet. The very best that will happen, and I doubt they do, is that they let it run off.

ekm's picture

If they let expire the bonds they own, the printed cash won't be sterilized.

That money has already created commodity super inflation and it is making allies do currency swaps with China.


That decision is political and not at all economic

Everybodys All American's picture

Exactly. No one even Ben wants to be responsible for losing the dollars reserve status.

ekm's picture

it all comes down to that one little thing:


Its Only Rock N Roll's picture


clearly not what he or anyone wants as their legacy

higher rates coming to a theater near you

ekm's picture

soon, almost there


people forget the only reason to DEMAND A CURRENCY: INTEREST RATE

Citxmech's picture

When the dike springs more leaks than you have fingers and toes - you have to triage the worst leaks.  That's what's happening now - triage.

Shouldn't be long now before we have another big leg down. . .

ekm's picture


Extremely well synthesized

1000 splendid suns's picture

Gonna be hard to get a mortgage in Potemkin Village! Better off couch surfing until the second shoe drops.

SheepDog-One's picture

Just pull the rug out suddenly one morning....the perfect plan....NO ONE is expecting the Corzining that is coming! It will be quite a day when everyone gets up to log into their accounts and check futures and they just see 'Markets Closed Until Further Notice'. 

fonzannoon's picture

Doc we called it. Just a matter of time eh?


"In one of the latest efforts, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. HIG +2.23%is requiring owners of certain of its guarantees to move at least 40% of their money into bond funds—and lose their guarantee if they fail to transfer the money out of stock funds.

Some financial advisers say they worry that clients they aren't able to reach will inadvertently lose the valuable guarantees, possibly exposing the advisers to litigation."

Dr. Engali's picture

Yep we sure did. I've been watching Hartford and Lincoln for a long time...Met and Pru got themselves into a mess too. The kicker is they are forcing them out of stocks and into bonds and there is probablt even more risk doing that. if the insurance companies can't hedge their risks due to low rates, why do they want their clients in bonds for that same reason? 

fonzannoon's picture

my question remains....who the hell is dumping these bonds? If it ain't the fed, the banks, or the insurance companies...China?

Or are the banks just getting positioned to crush everyone on the ride back up to a debt crisis?

ekm's picture

primary dealers and pimco have crap to sell and looking for suckers

cossack55's picture

If the banks are involved, then everyone has a bullseye on their rectum.

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Floating Rate Notes, The FED is going to refinance their balance sheet to shorter term duration notes and rig the interest rates on the FRNs in collusion with the Treasury so as to not bankrupt the US Government in the process LIBOR style to unwind the balance sheet of Treasuries. They can and probably will do that regardless of any tapering but it doesn't start until 2014 when the first FRN auctions are supposed to commence.

Unprepared's picture

More like QEHi5 before year-end.

slaughterer's picture



ekm's picture

I can't know when.

I know though, that oil has been about $90 for 2 years now and world is bypassing USD by doing currency swaps, including allies like UK, France Australia New Zealand with..............china


Real economy has been in full contraction the moment crude oil crossed $90

Dr. Engali's picture

If you remeber when the one was campaigning he thought that $4.00 gas was just about right for the American people. Barring a catastrophe oil won't be allowed to go bellow $85.00 a barrel.

Hohum's picture

Dr. E,

If oil is allowed to go below $85 per barrel, it won't make life grand.  It will decrease world oil extraction, though.

ekm's picture

there's too too much oil being produced and .......stored.

It will be dumped

Dr. Engali's picture

That's not going to happen. With cheap oil the one can never hope to get any clean energy initiatives through.

THX 1178's picture

With the collapse will come a flood of suppressd energy technologies...

walküre's picture

this is peak oil essentially

oil was up yesterday when all else sold off

ekm's picture

That's what happened in 2008 also, it actually kept going higher until............................................

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

ah, the old 'inflation' game again....BB is one smart cookie. he has to get the housing bubble reinflated but not create inflation....i think this is his cue...housing started to take off again so he is putting the brakes on it so as to only flatten to slightly increase home values.....otherwise, boom, oil will take off again and the whole thing will come crashing down....


he is smart....but not a genius....and the markets will not be controlled.

Fiat Burner's picture

A halt to QE doesn't guarantee a reversal of those currency swaps.  That's the US military's job.

ekm's picture

Do not disagree.

It's a mandatory step though, IMO

cossack55's picture

Send the PMS women warriors in.  Those babes will sort out all those swapping swine.

derek_vineyard's picture

soooooooooooooooooooo next months confidence and housing data will start to reflect this.

lolmao500's picture

Yeah right. The confidence of sheep is sky high even when they are about to fall off a cliff. All is good to them unless they are already falling and they see the ground and their little brain has enough power to realize that they are fucked...

Hell one of my bros in finance told me this week-end... home prices cannot go down! Even if rates rise and QE stops! Why? Because my colleagues and Bernanke told me so! The amount of delusion/denial out there is quite astonishing... even among the ``experts``.

tarsubil's picture

Well, everyone that could refi did at lower rates. Now that they are locked in, all they have to do is avoid selling their house for the next 10 years and they won't have to realize any losses. It should be easy since no one will be buying anyway.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

+1.  Actually in my nabe, it's the Chinese buying homes.  Seriously.

TheMayor's picture

Sell every rally, BTFD is dead. 

Dr. Engali's picture

That's okay because that just means the refi business will dry up and banks will lend more for home mortgages. That's what CNBS told me anyway, and I trust them with my life.

fonzannoon's picture

my mortgage is 4.625%. I was excited to get it. Now it's a catastrophe.

X86BSD's picture

Pffft. i signed my mortage in oct of 2009 @ 5.25% fixed! At the time that was pretty low! Then it slowly dropped and dropped from then until now down to 3 some %. Now its going back up. It is what it is. Ill just pay more on the principle over the 30 year life and pay it off early.

JimBowie1958's picture

5.25% is pretty low historically, below old usury rates.

Dont beat yourself  up just becaus deals got a bit better later.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Fonz, where are you, Nassau County?  I could never afford to live there, as much as I like the proximity to beaches.  (Interest + TAXES) * 30 years = 2.5x - 3x your buy price on the home.  For that I hold my cash and invest. 

It's a crying shame ... a broad swath of the entire American generation is hereby scalped.

fonzannoon's picture

Yeah I am in Nassau and yeah I can't afford to live here. My wife just insisted that we re do a bathroom. Every weekend for the last 3 months looked like this.


ParkAveFlasher's picture


2 weeks, 2 weeks ...


So - does that mean the non modification HAMP programs not being used by the major banks might come into play finally ? 

Doesn't matter - all the folks who might have been helped got foreclosed on anyway.

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was. 

YC2's picture

Someone close to me has tried extensively over months and months (and to no avail) to use this program.  From what I have seen HAMP is not helping anyone and it is generally a nightmare to attempt to use it.