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Zillow 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Skyrockets By Massive 50 bps In One Week To 4.38%, Most Since 2011

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goodbye housing (non)recovery... except for those private equity-cum-landlord firms and offshore oligarchs who pay all cash of course.

 

Just out from Zillow:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow(R) Mortgage Marketplace is currently 4.38 percent, up fifty basis points from 3.88 percent at this time last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered between 3.82 and 4 percent late last week, before spiking up near the current rate over the weekend.

This represents the highest rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace since July 2011.

"Last week rates spiked up to levels not seen since July 2011 after Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke reiterated the Fed's commitment to scale back its stimulus program later this year," said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. "This coming week, we expect rates will be volatile as the market recalibrates and determines whether we've reached a new plateau near 4.5 percent or whether this week's rate spike was an overreaction that warrants a downward adjustment."

Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace site, and reflect the most recent changes in the market. These are not marketing rates, or a weekly survey.

The rate for a 15-year fixed home loan is currently 3.41 percent, while the rate for a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is 3.18 percent.

* * *

And once more, as a reminder, the impact on house affordability as a function of interest rate:

 

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Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:24 | 3691867 ekm
ekm's picture

Tapering intact since March 2013.

Full halt soon

Unwinding coming

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:35 | 3691912 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

So, basically the market is saying: Ben, you fucked up.   

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:37 | 3691923 ekm
ekm's picture

The opposite.

Ben got the order to not intervene (as much?) and the market is let to work on itself, partially.

 

Full halt = market is let to work on its own totally

 

Unwinding = Fed intervenes to under the QE idiocy (comng soon)

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:41 | 3691937 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nope never. The fed will never unwind that massive balance sheet. The very best that will happen, and I doubt they do, is that they let it run off.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:46 | 3691955 ekm
ekm's picture

If they let expire the bonds they own, the printed cash won't be sterilized.

That money has already created commodity super inflation and it is making allies do currency swaps with China.

 

That decision is political and not at all economic

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:00 | 3692020 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Exactly. No one even Ben wants to be responsible for losing the dollars reserve status.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:10 | 3692065 ekm
ekm's picture

it all comes down to that one little thing:

RESERVE STATUS

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:16 | 3692092 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

yes!

clearly not what he or anyone wants as their legacy

higher rates coming to a theater near you

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:28 | 3692107 ekm
ekm's picture

soon, almost there

 

people forget the only reason to DEMAND A CURRENCY: INTEREST RATE

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:19 | 3692094 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

When the dike springs more leaks than you have fingers and toes - you have to triage the worst leaks.  That's what's happening now - triage.

Shouldn't be long now before we have another big leg down. . .

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:23 | 3692106 ekm
ekm's picture

'triage'

Extremely well synthesized

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:31 | 3692130 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

Gonna be hard to get a mortgage in Potemkin Village! Better off couch surfing until the second shoe drops.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:49 | 3691963 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just pull the rug out suddenly one morning....the perfect plan....NO ONE is expecting the Corzining that is coming! It will be quite a day when everyone gets up to log into their accounts and check futures and they just see 'Markets Closed Until Further Notice'. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:49 | 3691964 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Doc we called it. Just a matter of time eh?

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2013/06/25/report-variable-annuity-benefits-at-risk/

"In one of the latest efforts, Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. HIG +2.23%is requiring owners of certain of its guarantees to move at least 40% of their money into bond funds—and lose their guarantee if they fail to transfer the money out of stock funds.

Some financial advisers say they worry that clients they aren't able to reach will inadvertently lose the valuable guarantees, possibly exposing the advisers to litigation."

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:54 | 3691985 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yep we sure did. I've been watching Hartford and Lincoln for a long time...Met and Pru got themselves into a mess too. The kicker is they are forcing them out of stocks and into bonds and there is probablt even more risk doing that. if the insurance companies can't hedge their risks due to low rates, why do they want their clients in bonds for that same reason? 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:56 | 3692005 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

my question remains....who the hell is dumping these bonds? If it ain't the fed, the banks, or the insurance companies...China?

Or are the banks just getting positioned to crush everyone on the ride back up to a debt crisis?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:59 | 3692018 ekm
ekm's picture

primary dealers and pimco have crap to sell and looking for suckers

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:02 | 3692027 cossack55
cossack55's picture

If the banks are involved, then everyone has a bullseye on their rectum.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:55 | 3691999 ekm
ekm's picture

good call

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:55 | 3692003 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Floating Rate Notes, The FED is going to refinance their balance sheet to shorter term duration notes and rig the interest rates on the FRNs in collusion with the Treasury so as to not bankrupt the US Government in the process LIBOR style to unwind the balance sheet of Treasuries. They can and probably will do that regardless of any tapering but it doesn't start until 2014 when the first FRN auctions are supposed to commence.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:45 | 3691956 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

More like QEHi5 before year-end.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:35 | 3691916 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

When?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:38 | 3691928 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

JUST WHEN SCARLET JOHANSEN'S BEVERLY HILLS MEDITERRANEAN-STYLED HOUSE COMES ON THE MARKET!

I AM PISSED OFF!

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:40 | 3691935 ekm
ekm's picture

I can't know when.

I know though, that oil has been about $90 for 2 years now and world is bypassing USD by doing currency swaps, including allies like UK, France Australia New Zealand with..............china

 

Real economy has been in full contraction the moment crude oil crossed $90

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:45 | 3691953 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If you remeber when the one was campaigning he thought that $4.00 gas was just about right for the American people. Barring a catastrophe oil won't be allowed to go bellow $85.00 a barrel.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:48 | 3691967 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Dr. E,

If oil is allowed to go below $85 per barrel, it won't make life grand.  It will decrease world oil extraction, though.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:48 | 3691974 ekm
ekm's picture

there's too too much oil being produced and .......stored.

It will be dumped

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:56 | 3692006 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's not going to happen. With cheap oil the one can never hope to get any clean energy initiatives through.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:14 | 3692082 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

With the collapse will come a flood of suppressd energy technologies...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:48 | 3691970 walküre
walküre's picture

this is peak oil essentially

oil was up yesterday when all else sold off

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:57 | 3692011 ekm
ekm's picture

That's what happened in 2008 also, it actually kept going higher until............................................

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 23:45 | 3693515 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

ah, the old 'inflation' game again....BB is one smart cookie. he has to get the housing bubble reinflated but not create inflation....i think this is his cue...housing started to take off again so he is putting the brakes on it so as to only flatten to slightly increase home values.....otherwise, boom, oil will take off again and the whole thing will come crashing down....

 

he is smart....but not a genius....and the markets will not be controlled.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:50 | 3691980 Fiat Burner
Fiat Burner's picture

A halt to QE doesn't guarantee a reversal of those currency swaps.  That's the US military's job.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:52 | 3691988 ekm
ekm's picture

Do not disagree.

It's a mandatory step though, IMO

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:05 | 3692040 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Send the PMS women warriors in.  Those babes will sort out all those swapping swine.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:25 | 3691870 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

soooooooooooooooooooo next months confidence and housing data will start to reflect this.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:44 | 3691949 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah right. The confidence of sheep is sky high even when they are about to fall off a cliff. All is good to them unless they are already falling and they see the ground and their little brain has enough power to realize that they are fucked...

Hell one of my bros in finance told me this week-end... home prices cannot go down! Even if rates rise and QE stops! Why? Because my colleagues and Bernanke told me so! The amount of delusion/denial out there is quite astonishing... even among the ``experts``.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:26 | 3691872 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Well, everyone that could refi did at lower rates. Now that they are locked in, all they have to do is avoid selling their house for the next 10 years and they won't have to realize any losses. It should be easy since no one will be buying anyway.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:25 | 3692111 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

+1.  Actually in my nabe, it's the Chinese buying homes.  Seriously.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:26 | 3691873 TheMayor
TheMayor's picture

Sell every rally, BTFD is dead. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:26 | 3691874 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's okay because that just means the refi business will dry up and banks will lend more for home mortgages. That's what CNBS told me anyway, and I trust them with my life.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:27 | 3691875 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

my mortgage is 4.625%. I was excited to get it. Now it's a catastrophe.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:31 | 3691892 X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

Pffft. i signed my mortage in oct of 2009 @ 5.25% fixed! At the time that was pretty low! Then it slowly dropped and dropped from then until now down to 3 some %. Now its going back up. It is what it is. Ill just pay more on the principle over the 30 year life and pay it off early.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:49 | 3691976 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

5.25% is pretty low historically, below old usury rates.

Dont beat yourself  up just becaus deals got a bit better later.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:05 | 3692041 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Fonz, where are you, Nassau County?  I could never afford to live there, as much as I like the proximity to beaches.  (Interest + TAXES) * 30 years = 2.5x - 3x your buy price on the home.  For that I hold my cash and invest. 

It's a crying shame ... a broad swath of the entire American generation is hereby scalped.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:31 | 3692134 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah I am in Nassau and yeah I can't afford to live here. My wife just insisted that we re do a bathroom. Every weekend for the last 3 months looked like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdYPxFMhEkE

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 17:19 | 3692419 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

BEEN THERE DONE THAT.

2 weeks, 2 weeks ...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:29 | 3691888 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

So - does that mean the non modification HAMP programs not being used by the major banks might come into play finally ? 

Doesn't matter - all the folks who might have been helped got foreclosed on anyway.

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:51 | 3691986 YC2
YC2's picture

Someone close to me has tried extensively over months and months (and to no avail) to use this program.  From what I have seen HAMP is not helping anyone and it is generally a nightmare to attempt to use it.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:08 | 3692059 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Screw HAMP. Better to rely on HEMP.

"It is better to have dope in times of no money, than money in times of no dope."

 

                  Freddie Freak

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 16:25 | 3692297 Breezy47
Breezy47's picture

I used it a year and a half ago to go from 6% to 4.75%. And I had equity + good credit. The trouble is you can only do it once. I should have waited for the 3.5%

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:29 | 3691889 ekm
ekm's picture

Only and only in modern economics that: higher prices are better than lower prices.

 

I can never get over this stupidity and propaganda

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:32 | 3691899 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Debt...without price appreciation you die. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:34 | 3691909 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Exactly. Hence QE4eva.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:06 | 3692049 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Inflation: German engineering, at its finest!

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:36 | 3691921 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Indeed, without a resultant increase in wages/income an increase in things like housing and oil are actually detrimental to the economy. "Wealth effect" is for morons as it is not wealth, but merely the perception of wealth, which actually causes people to mis allocate capital rather than make smart decisions with their money.

We live in idiocracy.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:47 | 3691966 pods
pods's picture

"Brought to you by Carls Jr."

 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:07 | 3692056 ekm
ekm's picture

Extremely well formulated

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:38 | 3692163 artless
artless's picture

But I heard just today on the radio that home prices are going up everywhere and that's called a "recovery" in housing!

Here's a little wake-up to all the 15yr amd 30 yr mortgage holders. You are simply renters on a rent to own plan with none of the benefits of having the landlord take care of shit that breaks. Oh and you get that freebie from Big Daddy Gov in terms of a write off. The bank (or whoever) owns the place. And while you are at it try not paying the property tax and see what you "own".

Housing is one of the greatest examples of how completelly fuct up our economy really is. The idea that rising prices is a net benefit is absolutely insane. Those people who bought high and are either underwater or lose the house are no different than any other investor who loses invested money. Too bad. The idea that the rest of the popualtion continues to get fuct by rising housing costs so that those priveleged few who made shitty choices are saved from the consequences of their actions is, well, typical American bullshit I guess.

 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:30 | 3691891 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Good luck getting that rate. The young doctor down the street checked out loans at the Bank and was told "the best we can do for you is 6-3/4%." He said he has exellent credit but they told him does not matter...that's their present mortgage rate for "excellent credit score folks."

 

Reality meets Fiction....painful when a Sheeple realizes the diff.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:33 | 3691902 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

You mean they're not lending out that Fed capital?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:35 | 3691914 X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

Yeah i have thought the exact same thing. The rates were down as low as 3% for a while. But every time I heard that I kept thinking "yeah but ill bet NO ONE qualifies for that rate." My credit is pretty good over 750+ on all three credit agencies. No negatives. No late payments. Nothing. And with that the best I was able to get in 2009 was 5.25% 30 year fixed. I wish i could break into the 800 realm but no matter what i do i cant seem to get much higher than where i am now. I dont think anyone has a 3% rate.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:51 | 3691984 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Wrong -- 3% 15 yr fixed refi January 2012.

I jumped the gun a little, if I waited a year I would have gotten 2.5%.

But I have 60% equity and both me and the wife had identical 808 scores in 1/12.

I happy at this rate

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:53 | 3691994 YC2
YC2's picture

Is this the troll or the man behind the troll speaking?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:26 | 3692114 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

3.875% - 30yr fixed. Here.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:36 | 3692149 Quisat_Sadarak
Quisat_Sadarak's picture

It **was** real.  3.375% 30yr fixed.  Good luck getting that now.

And I know several other people who got lower 3% ish refi-s 30yr fixed.

 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:33 | 3692137 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Bad troll! Stay in character!

BTW, last I checked, 15 years is not 30.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:52 | 3692211 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Need to be in CU. I'm @ 2.75.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:39 | 3692046 pursueliberty
pursueliberty's picture

My wife owns a small independent brokerage.  In the transactions she represented last year all but a few had a rate for 30 yrs greater than 4.25%.  She didn't do a single 15 year, it was either cash or 30yr.  She did around 10 USDA loans, which are 100% financing with rates under 4.0%.  You have to have above a 680 for the best rate with that loan I believe.  They'll even let you add in the closing costs, so it is really greater than 100% financing.  It accounts for 75% of her business, the others use 5% conventional with pmi due to FHA increasing all the fees/pmi or are in investors with cash/20% down.  She didn't do a single transaction where the borrower did a conventional with 20% down last year, only one the year before, if it was a non investment property.  The rate increase is going to hurt, but overall she could call it a year with whats on the books and be just fine.  She has had a stellar year by anyones standards up to date.

Doc must have shit credit, which isn't uncommon.  Doesn't matter the trade, some people can't manange 10 dollars or 10 thousand. 

People buy the payment, house prices have no choice but to drop with higher interest rates.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:33 | 3692142 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I just got 3.75% 15 year APR, with a 30 year close out.

Last house I will ever own. Ride this mess into the sunset.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:34 | 3691906 youngman
youngman's picture

So this means I raise the price on my condo in Denver....Case -Shiller said I should....and put out real estate adds in Russian.....that should do it..they like the cold winters...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:34 | 3691908 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Have to love it:

"This coming week, we expect rates will be volatile as the market recalibrates and determines whether we've reached a new plateau near 4.5 percent or whether this week's rate spike was an overreaction that warrants a downward adjustment."

What about the obvious continuation and going higher?  Not possible???  Just wait.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:35 | 3691915 g'kar
g'kar's picture

I pay cash for everything. Interest rates don't matter, except on CD's to me, which of course suck. Hopefully that will change.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:11 | 3692073 cossack55
cossack55's picture

You are aware that cash only folks are considered terrirrrists. Yes?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 16:41 | 3692331 g'kar
g'kar's picture

Hey, Obama already GPS'd my paid for home about 4 years ago when he sent his temp Census worker goons out here (I was there when they tried anyways, they were about 30 yards off). Since they already know everything about me, bank accounts, voting record, ZH postings (only place I bother), TSP accounts, tax records, which way my dick hangs, I figure who cares anymore. They already have my drone coordinates locked in anyways.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:36 | 3691918 Under construct...
Under construction...'s picture

Yanno, step-daughter is buying a house--a fixer-upper--in SC for $34K. Banks said they would not make money on the loan; credit union basicically gave her the equvalent of a car loan. This was last week. Hubby thought 5.19 percent was high. I told him, just you wait. It'll seem cheap really soon. Sorry to say I was right.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:37 | 3691922 stewmint
stewmint's picture

Oh no, rates are starting to rise, they might be 5,6, or 7 % soon. I'd better hurry and finally buy that house I've been putting off.

This may be how many people will start thinking, so a rise in rates could actually lead to more short term demand, no? Maybe?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:52 | 3691989 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure it's all good as long as Gubment hurries up and starts it's free money for home mortgage program soon.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:09 | 3692062 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Mr. Chairman, get to work!

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 16:59 | 3692374 g'kar
g'kar's picture

That's Mizz to you

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 16:18 | 3692280 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I fuckin hope so. My house has been on the market for a year.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:37 | 3691924 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I'll buy when prices drop 50%. Who cares about rates.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:37 | 3691926 jpc578
jpc578's picture

Things are going to get real ugly real fast if the Fed doesn't announce explicitly that tapering is not going to happen. The longer taper talk goes on Ben is putting himself in a box that will force him to increase POMO purchases to keep things from going to hell.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:37 | 3691927 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Higher rates. Lower home prices. Will help cash buyers.

Wait that sounds like GOLD !

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:39 | 3691931 pop goes the weasel
pop goes the weasel's picture

Had a few beers now!  been following zh for last 3 years, need some sort of advice off people on here. i have a few interest only mortgages all from 07 onwards. i have a joinery business and bought "cheap" property, did it up remortgaged rented out and bought again. all houses have no equity but good rental income while rates are low. Bought few thousand oz silver and 15 oz gold over last 4 years up and down. whats my next move? stick tight?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:53 | 3691991 walküre
walküre's picture

have a few more beers, load the phys on your boat and sail away

 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:54 | 3691998 pop goes the weasel
pop goes the weasel's picture

boat is on its last legs, dont think it will make another trip

 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:05 | 3692039 walküre
walküre's picture

that's between you, your god and your boat

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:07 | 3692053 pop goes the weasel
pop goes the weasel's picture

wanted something other than god, maybe something real

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 16:48 | 3692349 walküre
walküre's picture

your wife or the lamp post, whatever or whoever you trust your secret stash with... to some that is their "god"

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:41 | 3691941 kito
kito's picture

the lunatic pundits preaching the yoy housing increase of 12% have NO FEAR of a housing crash because of high interest rates....they view this as healthy and see housing momentum moving prices higher even with rates heading north.....one factor they cite is supply.......sentiment is still ROCK SOLID OPTIMISTIC..........wow, if the bernank pulls this off.....getting rates higher with nary a concern.....and nary a dent in home sales/price increase.....i will be forced to bow to him.................

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:45 | 3691952 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

".....i will be forced to bow to him"

I read that as having an L in there at first and had to read it again. Careful.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:55 | 3692002 walküre
walküre's picture

Buyers are investors or speculators for the most part. Cheap money looking for yield. Rising rates extinguish the yield on leveraged assets. It will end in carnage.

No bowing needed.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:36 | 3692152 kito
kito's picture

yeah, i told myself that the last umpteenth years already....and the sly bastard is kicking the crap out of all naysayers who claim he couldnt pull this off....or that off................how many people commented that 2.40 on the 10yr is armageddon....that 2.50 is armageddon..........ummm no..................btw..........im still waitiing for comex to default.....i keep hearing that gold cant drop anymore because physical demand would wipe it out..................im getting fucking cranky about all this shit already.............bernanke is walking on water....................somebody drain the fucking lake already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:43 | 3692178 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I would love to disagree but you are absolutely right.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 16:55 | 3692362 kito
kito's picture

thing is...i HATE being right about this......................

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 20:13 | 3692872 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

Yeah, I have been thinking the same thing what you just said. There is a possibility that this could go on for a very long time.

Methinks that the Corporate and Government Overlords KNOW who has gold, silver, your income and an analysis of what it will take to part you from your precious metals.

All of this central spying has to be used for something. My bet is that the banks KNOW what you got since they are underwriting the code breaking.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:46 | 3692184 Quisat_Sadarak
Quisat_Sadarak's picture

From what I have seen in my area most of the buys are in cash...  so an investor takes a hit if the price goes lower, but that won't hurt banks unless they lent money for the sale.   Banks are much more cautious lenders these days... if have been through a few loans and lately they are balking at tiny inconsistencies on your record.   No more NINJA loans.

I don't know if that's representative of the larger market.   Have you seen data for US wide sales and whether they are cash transactions or loans?   

 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:41 | 3691942 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

All is well...  NOT!!

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:41 | 3691943 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Meh, even during the bubble years, the 30 years was at 5-6%... so we ain't there yet... at all.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:43 | 3691948 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

That 30 year interest curve has a bunch of places where the interest rate quickly spikes by about a percent or so and then drops back to the old level within a year or so. As much as I hate to say it, I kind of feel that we might be experiencing another one of those.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:46 | 3691950 ekm
ekm's picture

.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:45 | 3691951 ultraticum
ultraticum's picture

Will this finally stop the HARP refi solicitations from coming in the mail?  This country has turned into one giant financial Ponzi scam.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:47 | 3691961 Matt Foley
Matt Foley's picture

Thirty year fixed rates are a lot higher than that now.  More like 4.75-5.00% now.  Rates jumped 1% from Wednesday to Monday. 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:10 | 3692069 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

i can attest to that - wife and i are looking to purchase our first home - locked into 3.5% rate, dropped off paperwork yesterday to the mortgage office with our contact proclaiming we were some very lucky folks - rate had jumped up to 4.65% for a 30-year fixed

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:38 | 3692161 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Buying my LAST house now, you might want to look at ARMs (not kidding). Looked at 10 year 3.5% and 15 year 3.75% with no points.

Shit, no one knows what things will look like 10-15 years from now anyway.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 14:57 | 3692007 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

It's ok, another crisis will happen way sooner than 30 years from now, and interest rates will go down to negative 5.00% (since 0% didn''t work last time).

 

Who honestly thinks this system is going to survive 30 years?

be lucky if it survives 1.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:03 | 3692033 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

'The [morning] *Bernanke Line' (over/under):         >4.5% Sell / <3.25% Buy   /hold<nc%>/

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:03 | 3692034 Voicefather
Voicefather's picture

I spoke with a retired banking regulator about the housing market. Smart guy, told me he sees a return of the recession since we never dealt with it last time. But oddly, he suspects that due to reduced building over the last several years and population increase there would still be reasonable demand for houses going forward. Just passing on his 2 cents.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:05 | 3692044 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right...just as long as the jobless public can get some free money checks from the govt to secure that housing it should all be good.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:04 | 3692037 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People are now in a delusion that the 6 year life support coma patient is about to hop off the table, rip out his hundreds of I.V.'s, and sprint to a NY Marathon win!

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:28 | 3692117 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Look - it's Mr. Recovery!:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU2yt6wOoK0

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:12 | 3692077 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

Well, sumunabeech....there goes that VA refi I was considering. Kept dragging my feet like an idiot trying to find if there was any special 'fine print' allowed in new refis/mortgages as a result of the Save Da Bankstahs Act. The kind of language that basically says:

At any future moment, for any reason, we can not only take your house, but also hold you legally accountable for the loan balance in the event you figure out we screwed you.

Naturally, such language would be worded in flowery skittle-shitting unicorn legalese.

One question though.....can the fed ACTUALLY withdraw the needle at this point? If interest rates are allowed to rise, thus destroying what's left of the housing market....how in the hell is the fed going to keep from buying $85+ billion of MBS every month? Or if you prefer, how in the hell will they be able to convince ANYONE else to buy them? Is the scene set up satisfactorily enough for TPTB to implode the whole system and send us into a hyper-depression so they can scoop up assets on the cheap? I'm not so sure all their ducks are in a row just yet?

P.S. Fuck you, Bernanke. You and all your life-sucking hellspawn colleagues.

 

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:15 | 3692087 koaj
koaj's picture

I'm thinking of incorporating as a bank and buying half of detroit for 100k at the fed funds rate which is close to negative.

 

If its good for GS its good enough for me

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:23 | 3692101 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I still wouldn't touch mbs with a ten foot pole. The gubbermint+fed have permanently dorked up both the housing and bond markets.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 15:58 | 3692234 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

If you believe that I have an empty Chinese mega city to sell you...

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 16:00 | 3692241 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

On a side note, should it take 30 years to pay off a house, wtf?

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 17:05 | 3692386 Cheeseus Sonofdog
Cheeseus Sonofdog's picture

The "equity-cum-landlord firms" were planning on flipping to the little guy who needs a mortgage. Looks like they won't be able to now. I guess they can still rent it out. Except the renter still lives off of credit and rising rates have sucked even more money from him. He will have less money to pay his rent. Looks like the only winner here will be the local tax collectors. They will be sending the landlords a 30% higher tax bill.....

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 17:34 | 3692453 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

A good friend of mine just cooked his own ass by buying an Emeryville condo last month; right at what I personally think is the top-tick.  I wish I felt better about it but I don't and he didn't ask until it was too late, so ... he paid no attention to anything deeper than Yahoo! then all at once, with the help of course of a very knowledgeable, very honest in-law, displayed this sudden conviction, farsightedness and acumen and shelled out his life savings.  Somehow, he knows the SF Bay Area is going to add 2MM to its population in the next ten years.  Yeegads I hope not.

Tue, 06/25/2013 - 21:16 | 3693009 davidgdg
davidgdg's picture

The very idea that it is possible to buy a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 4% on a free market is absurd. When I read things like that I realise just how corrupted by Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac anf ZIRP the US housing market is.

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