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Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As shown two months ago, the marginal cost of production of gold (90% percentile) in 2013 was estimated at $1300 including capex. Which means that as of a few days ago, gold is now trading well below not only the cash cost, but is rapidly approaching the marginal cash cost of $1104...

 

 

Which means that of the following mines (as we showed here) which make up the gold cost curve, one by one, starting on the right and going left, production is going to go dark, even without the recent demand by South African gold miner labor unions to have their wages doubled. Until eventually virtually no gold will be produced.

 

 

It is at that point where one must apply the New Normal supply and demand curve, when one can predict a $0 per ounce price for gold, as physical demand continues unabated, while actual physical, not paper, production has now started going offline.

 

Joking aside, not even Bernanke and all the paper Gold ETFs in the world will be able to do much to suppress gold prices from reaching their fair value when gold production hits a standstill, and when demands, especially by China, is still in the hundreds of tons each year.

 

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Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:25 | 3696399 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> I go every spring for opening weekend to help.

If something were to happen to my significant other, which is always a possibility, I've seriously considered the work the Alaska season routine.  I had an RV friend who went up every year to work in an RV and fishing camp and loved it.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:41 | 3696460 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Is not a lot of canned tuna not tuna, but some related fish that causes anal leakage amongst other maladies?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 17:56 | 3696980 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Essssscolarrrr

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 20:07 | 3697322 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Escolar. It's billed as "white tuna", but my understanding is that it's more typically served at restaurants. I'd have thought canned fish would be too easy to trace.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 18:17 | 3697046 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

If the dog is fat, it is time to eat the dog.

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 22:04 | 3697653 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Feed the cat to the dog. The roll the cat food money into dog food. Everyone wins.

Except the cat. But who give a shit about the cats. Unless they are your wife's.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 01:37 | 3698183 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

+100

We have three cats. One is OK, one is weird and useless as mule tits, and the third one shits a foot in front of the cat box. If TSHTF, they're food for my two dogs.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 01:46 | 3698199 Flagit
Flagit's picture

im actually long on mule tits.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:53 | 3699391 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

You need another litter box.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 20:01 | 3697301 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

 

 

Shoot the dog !

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irkQlR-b-nA

 

@0:18

 

Problem solved.

 

( Think of me as the Paula Deen of animal rights.)

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:36 | 3695819 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Greatbeard......

The fucker has problem with the english language, can you trust that?

Yep, bought dog food today, $50.

 

On another note, looks like Weiner is going to win mayor of NYC. Can you believe that shit? Fuckin Pedophile!

I moved into a safer, larger, cleaner, cheaper location just across the river from NYC. Fuck you new york, the state and the city.

You will NOT get my money for taxes.

You will NOT get my money for eating out every night.

You will NOT get my money for fucking anything.

Fuck you Bloomberg, Cuomo and all you lefty fucks!

 

CUNTS!

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:01 | 3695990 zuuma
zuuma's picture

Agree with all your sentiments, but...

RE:

"I moved into a safer, larger, cleaner, cheaper location just across the river from NYC. Fuck you new york, the state and the city."

Across which river from NYC do you find a lack of lefty fucks?

Just curious.

I would have guessed one would need to get well into Appalachia, at least, to get away from that.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:07 | 3696023 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I think by "river" he meant "the Indian Ocean".

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 20:39 | 3697413 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Nah, he meant the River Styx.

There are plenty of libs over there, but they aren't in charge, and are well contained.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:12 | 3696048 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

lets just say a more family friendly area with a certain qb living in the same building. 

Maybe not completely void of the takers on the other side of the Hudson, but it's a better choice for us needing to stay close to the chaos.

Maybe when the city burns, I'll only stay warm.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 17:07 | 3696792 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

What NJ people don't either realize or face is, without NYC, they are Pennsylvania without the coal. 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 19:38 | 3697250 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Correction, New Jersey is Pennsylvania without the coal and tons of toxic waste.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 23:13 | 3697900 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Come on.  NJ's got plenty.

Does The Garden State Parkway still stink?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 19:59 | 3697280 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

I have tomatoes. You can't have any.

 

Edit for Mr Thomas; certified organic, and the soil has been tested. The dirt is good enough to eat.

However, it is true that NJ has been the recipient of NY's toxic waste for years. Just look at Snooki.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 22:00 | 3697636 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Hey now, I've got NJ cred, I swam in the Hudson river, I'm a river rat. As a young man I could remember sitting perched on an oily cube of styrofoam underneath the GWB thinking I was like some Huck Finn character. Unfortunately they didn't have flotsam and jetsam of tampon applicators and hypodermic needles in Huck finn. Like Carlin said, "We were tempered in RAW SHIT!"

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:08 | 3696027 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

moving in NOV.  hipsters and fags took over....and look what they did to the place!

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:15 | 3696061 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

"hipsters and fags took over....and look what they did to the place!"

I lived on 16th in Chelsea........next to The Grey Dog.

Ironic

At least I have my memories.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:03 | 3696474 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

"Took over" ... from who, the previous hipsters and fags? 

NYC has been around for quite a bit longer than most know.  I remember getting handed a flyer for a strip joint in midtown while walking on the street ... I was 8 years old at the time and with my mom ...

Lots of youngin's haven't been around long enough to see the cycles in things.  They are defensive because gold is in a dive.  They need to think on longer terms. 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:03 | 3696567 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I thought you know NY.  Actually they've taken over former minority neighborhoods, driven up the housing costs and as a result driven out the former residents.  So you could say there's a racial element to the liberal takeovers :)

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 17:05 | 3696784 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

How about this?  You're full of shit and don't know what the fuck you're talking about.  Show me anyone elbowing out the Chinese south of Delancey or the Latinos from the towers on the LES. 

One can easily say it's the tower people and the NYU dorm crowd displacing the low rent nabes in alphabet city and the bowery so forth.  You show your magazine "knowledge" on the topic. 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 17:12 | 3696818 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

NYC is bigger than Manhattan genius.  Get off the island and drive thru the other boroughs recently taken over by Hipsters.  If you don't drive, walk to the east river and look across the other side.  Jeez,  I even have to educate libs to what's happening in their own home town.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 18:34 | 3697096 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Yeah I live in Queens, ya mental rental.  The five b's are bigger that billyburg.  Can you even spell Staten Island. [just gave you a hint]

Stop up arrowing yourself.  

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 19:04 | 3697156 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Ever hear of the hipster neighborhoods in St. George, Tompkinsville, or Stapleton on Staten Island?  You really need to stop thinking you know so much.  It's probably why you're still broke and stuck in Queens.  BTW Queens is one of the worst places in NYC to be in during a crisis, but you already know that cause you know everything.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 23:19 | 3697912 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

I can attest, Queens looks pretty awful.  What could induce people to pack in like that?

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:55 | 3699409 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

South Brooklyn??

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:14 | 3696342 YouAreBliss
YouAreBliss's picture

I hear Newark is beautiful this time of year.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:47 | 3695913 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

There is both.  Silver and gold are both saying deflation.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:11 | 3696324 walküre
walküre's picture

Deflation spells mayhem for the central banks of the world. They will fight deflation come hell and/or high water.

We haven't seen anything yet in terms of REflation.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:16 | 3696068 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I sold off much of my gold when it crashed through long-term support at $1,550. I've been sitting in cash ever since, but waiting to buy more.

If it goes under $1,100 then I'll be buying with both hands.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:57 | 3696231 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Got to bust your balls here.  You (and countless others) are confusing inflation with MANIPULATION!

Ain't no inflation in any of the aforementioned points you reference, but the lack of price discovery sure makes them ripe for manipulation and that is precisely the cause.

Look around, prices only go up is pure horseshit -- prices go up until they don't.

And for those that think that prices have anything to do with supply and demand you are totally wrong.  It's all manipulation and nothing but.  Everything on fraud street to your pack of bubblegum is synthetically priced. 

Money is dead.

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:05 | 3696284 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

The article fails to make the distinction between the marginal cost of mining physical, or the "minting" paper gold.  The two are very different things.  

"BUTFT"  Love it.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:53 | 3696515 espirit
espirit's picture

Almost traded an AGE for a Rock River Arms complete package today at the local black market... hmmm, maybe next week?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:56 | 3696258 dow2000
dow2000's picture

Tyler's:   PLEASE REPOST

Taken from Jesse's Cafe Amercain

"Listen to this incredible audio recording of a speech made by JFK before the American Newspaper Publishers Association where he warns the press about the secret societies that are the real power in global affairs."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xhZk8ronces

btw... Each time I post to Facebook, the post is then removed...fucking scary

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:10 | 3696293 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

The fuckup behind him oversaw his death, too.  Look up a banned (as in cease and desist distribution) of a video series by Nigel Turner called The Men Who Killed Kennedy.  He put out two separate series' and the latter was revoked due to pressure from the deceased Johnson estate.

The coup Kennedy spoke of has been in charge since taking him out -- first symptom (same as the last) is/was Vietnam.  Rinse and repeat.

Interestingly, non other than George HW was present at the schoolbook depository that day, too.  

No one knows why the secret service was abruptly called off the motorcade (watch the footage of dismayed officers).

The United States is not anything close to what you think.

And one is supposed to trust "their" markets??!

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:16 | 3696353 walküre
walküre's picture

The Russians know and Vlad has Snowden. Pax Americana has ended. We're entering uncharted territory geopolitically speaking. Old fried chickens are finally coming home to roost. With them, a shitload of worthless US Dollars. Currency wars spelling reset all over the place.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:43 | 3696706 trader1
trader1's picture

most youtube videos you try to share don't show up by default on your facebook timeline.  

you have to go to your activity log, then ensure "show on timeline" or "highlight" post.  

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 22:16 | 3697660 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Re: 'Secretive' Societies

Cue Chindit13 polemic featuring an epistemological ad hom' a la  Sir Conrad Black, starring Alex Jones as 'The Strawman', and topped off with a thinly sauced red herring salad.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:21 | 3696380 DosZap
DosZap's picture

the lack inflation

Lack of inflation?  I'm guessing you don't run a mining operation, nor a household.  Go buy a bag of groceries and then tell me there's no inflation.  Got a cat or a dog you buy food for?  Eat canned fruit? Go to the doctor? No inflation?  Seriously?

 

Wait for the soon rising interest rates, the Fed cannot stand even a 1% increase.

You can bet your rear that EVERY household in the East is scraping together every dime they can and are waiting for the bottom.

Prems are already 30-40% higher than just LAST week.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:32 | 3696430 pagan
pagan's picture

We are a long way from inflation. The central bankers have worked hard to get inflation. They have failed.

The only inflation I see are the many bubbles. No, deflation will be the game for many years ahead.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:59 | 3696547 BlankfeinDiamond
BlankfeinDiamond's picture

Who the fuck eats canned fruit? Yuck.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:31 | 3696660 dtwn
dtwn's picture

MIT's Billion Prices Project show inflation continues to creep up:

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 20:03 | 3697313 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

greatbeard      "Lack of inflation? I'm guessing you don't run a mining operation, nor a household. Go buy a bag of groceries and then tell me there's no inflation. Got a cat or a dog you buy food for? Eat canned fruit? Go to the doctor? No inflation? Seriously?"

 

The fallacy of your argument is this. Even the poor (those below the poverty line but not on the street), have a greater standard of living then the wealthiest of over a hundred years ago.

In other words, someone today, that is below the poverty line, might have a microwave, a big screen TV, an Iphone, maybe a car and their standard of living is better then a multi-millionaire of 1913.

 

So once you understand that, you might understand we are in deflationary circumstances which perfectly fits in with PM's decline.

I do advocate holding some PM's and overall, I do think PMs will rise relative to other markets. But you have to understand that might mean all markets are falling, including PMs and that PMs are falling less then other markets.  That is what happened after 1929. For a period, cash became king as people had to service debts and you can't deny we are in a high debt society. Since most debts can't be settled by PM's, but have to settled in dollars, then you only have to use logic to see everything would be under selling pressure to raise cash.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 04:28 | 3698355 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

"In other words, someone today, that is below the poverty line, might have a microwave, a big screen TV, an Iphone, maybe a car and their standard of living is better then a multi-millionaire of 1913"

The fact that you could even make that statement proves that you are an utter and complete moron.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 00:42 | 3698090 noless
noless's picture

That's why i try to stick to governmentaly subsidised food stuffs(drugs) like beer. The price is always constant because as long as you're drunk, you wont do anything about anything.

(paragraphs deleted for lack of utility).

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 06:27 | 3707327 LibertarianX
LibertarianX's picture

+ people seem to block out inflated asset prices from their 'perceived' level of inflation in the economy....unbelievable...like the equity / bonds rally are driven by significantly higher expected real returns...or improved economic conditions reducing credit risk.....unbelievable....so many trolls these days....

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:13 | 3695670 jomama
jomama's picture

just gonna leave this here.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:16 | 3695696 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

And I'll leave this 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:56 | 3695962 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes Bernank has found a new reason to keep pumping....that being even a hint of easing off proved totaly disasterous.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:05 | 3696014 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Gold... "but it is still valuable as a disaster hedge."

 

When does what we have qualify as disaster?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:36 | 3696144 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

 ZH's incessant touting of gold has probably done massive damage.  with the quarter ending and no one wanting to show any metals in their holdings the crash may be coming to at least a short term end. as for inflation, some areas of price inflation are apparent, others show a deflation (electronics, clothing, fast food) so it's not easy to generalize. like real estate specifics make a big difference (detroit/manhattan). since no one can predict anything-either diversify and hedge or don't get involved.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:23 | 3696628 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The gold rout continues.       The PAPER/Derivative gold rout continues.....there...now it makes sense

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 17:24 | 3696862 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

You have to consider the reserve currency as dead and this as the hard herd riding to enforce dominion...and to hurt the weak so they cough up some physical.  Fed simply can't stop QE.  Japan tried and failed. No gov't historically once committed to the print can back off.  Taper only leads to greater effusions of thin-air bux when the contraction is amplified.

Problem is anyone with any surplus didn't get it being a pure idiot...and they know an end game when they see one.  Only debt and newly printed vouchers are sustaining the Ponzi.  All the smart money that wasn't smoked is diversified in hard assets.   Most of the middle class I know who get ahead at all don't drop Fedbucks in the safety deposit or hole in the ground, it's all PMs.  The plane engine is sputtering and the captain and crew wan't you to trade in parachutes for drink coupons.

I worry about collapse of the reserve currency, war, and cross industry market crashes simultaneously.  Or coordinated global currency revaluation.

When it comes you'll find no more room at the inn.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:08 | 3695641 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

looking for 1210 and 1180

then 1550

then back down for October

then

the moon

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:13 | 3695671 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

No offense, but I highly doubt we see those numbers. Gold seems to tumble down 20-$100 a day, but when it gains it goes up a lot more slowly (at least lately). I think gold may remain lower at least until mid 2014. Now if the article is correct and the gold producers stop production, premiums on coins already minted (physical) could explode.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:17 | 3695700 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Gold producers don't seem to understand that, in order to stay in business over the long term they need to sell for more than the all-in cost of production.  I think maybe the operate on the assumption that their cashflow comes from equity issues, so actual profits are optional.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:23 | 3695749 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

There may be some "consolidating" in the gold mining industry then. Stupid businesses go broke..

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:30 | 3695802 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

And by 'stupid businesses' I assume you mean 'all of them'.  Never have I seen an industry run by a more unsavvy (and/or crooked, take your pick) group.  There must be a special test you have to take before you're allowed to run a mining company, or maybe they only hire out of the 'special education' classes - you know, the ones where you get a gold star for showing up and 'for just being you - because all of us here are ALL special in our own way!'.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:32 | 3695814 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I wonder if they are stupid or are just an extension of the banks and knew their role in this game all along.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:34 | 3695825 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Yeah, I agree, that's why I qualified it as 'stupid and/or crooked'.  Barrick for sure has been a tool of the banks all along.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:57 | 3696537 espirit
espirit's picture

hint, hint

Check the seasonal charts.  Some old rules still apply.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:44 | 3695897 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Can you say, fear of nationalization?

Read up on National Defense Resource Preparedness if you want to understand what kind of pressure is being brought to bear.

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 17:30 | 3696887 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

You don't really think that the Kennecott (Rio Tinto) subsidence less than two days before the long term take down of metal began was an accident, do you?  First tip off that this is a planned and coordinated action and that excuses must be made to keep valuables in the ground which will deliver huge profits down the line. Smaller miners can twist in the wind, but the biggies didn't get there by not having sweeping access to global intel.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 18:01 | 3696998 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its starting to look more and more like that.

Man, I would not want to be Fed chair or CTFC chairman when this shit blows, because can you say COMPLICIT?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:18 | 3696077 IllusionOfChoice
IllusionOfChoice's picture

Holding out for $1000 here (and a 666 S&P). I want to feel young again!

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:09 | 3695645 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

That's ok, I've been informed by reliable sources (commenters here) that the hoarders of the past (wealthy families, central banks, etc.) are supplying the demand now, so that silly retail buyers can have 'shiny coins to admire', while said wealthy families transition to other more modern stores of value that they overlooked in the past (productive companies, farmland, etc.)  So, no need for any new production thanks, the world has all it needs.

 

Not exactly sure, though, how crushing the price like this is going to get JPM that extra 80k oz it needs by the end of the week to settle its Comex delivery commitments, but those guys are super-smart, so I'm sure they've got neat trick up their sleeve to amaze us all.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:15 | 3695691 duo
duo's picture

they are going to offer $200/oz over spot to forego delivery, hence the $200/oz beating in the last two weeks

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:18 | 3695710 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

What if the counterparties tell them to fuck off and deliver the gold (dreaming, I know).  Actually, I think they'll just help themselves to some of GLD's declining, but still substantial inventory.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:22 | 3695741 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

It's a "win-win." No physical delivery means it is easier to push prices down and whomever receives $200 over spot can buy physical at a profit (or even afford more).

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:24 | 3695762 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I'm writing the Bloomberg headline right now - 'Gold plummets on strong US data and inventory concerns, as suppliers unable to deliver to meet physical demand'

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:47 | 3695915 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Whoever wrote that headline should report immediately to the nearest "funny farm"...  it makes absolutely NO sense whatsoever... but then again, what does make sense lately?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:52 | 3695943 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Al Huxley please report to the funny farm. Al Huxley.....

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:58 | 3695976 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I would, but I'm late for my interview with Bloomberg.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:58 | 3695972 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Well, that would just be rude.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:26 | 3695771 TheAntiBen
TheAntiBen's picture

If they're smart, they will take the $200 over spot, and then turn around with that profit and buy back in at spot and start the cycle again.  Rinse, repeat until JPM is out of money AND gold.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:50 | 3695933 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

JP Morgan won't run out of money.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:10 | 3695648 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Where is the same chart for silver?  

Marginal cost of production for silver?

Marginal cash cost for silver?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3695675 achmachat
achmachat's picture

check out seeking alpha and srsroccoreport.com
break-even costs for most of the primary silver miners is in the high twenties

(note, that the cash cost the silver institute provides has a total different meaning as you can find buried in small print disclaimers) 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:24 | 3695764 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

How are these companies not refusing to mine right now!? What a bunch of bullshit.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:28 | 3695788 duo
duo's picture

because JPM threatened them with higher credit card rates

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:15 | 3696058 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Solvency comes in second place to liquidity. Regardless of the inevitable future, they still have to make it through today.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:17 | 3695703 gjp
gjp's picture

Much harder to estimate, silver is usually a by-product of zinc or other base metal mines.

not sure cash costs matter for either.  Silver is a by-product and the global inventory of gold dwarfs annual production.  We could produce zero gold for some years and lots of gold could continue to move.  And futures markets, of course, are not constrained in the least by gold production ...

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:25 | 3695768 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I've heard from a reliable source it's $5.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:43 | 3696182 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Thanks for the down arrow methhead!

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:16 | 3696356 akak
akak's picture

"And the shit is everywhere!"

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:35 | 3696670 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

People are throwing it from their rooftops in my neighborhood. Screaming too...

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 17:38 | 3696922 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

LOL...  methman back?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:13 | 3696049 Possible Impact
Possible Impact's picture

Also, the industrial usage. (Photography biz is way down...)

 

 

BTW: I'm holding + looking for moar.

Need a comfortable bed for my Dragon. (In case I ever find one...)

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:18 | 3696073 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Thing was, around 80% of that consumption was recycled. Today though, most industrial silver is consumed in end products in such small amounts that recycling isn't feasible. Like those anti-bacterial band-aids, and hellfire missles.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 18:04 | 3697004 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

+1

MIC is going to have to pay me atleast a 300% premium if they want to use my silver in a hellfire!

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:10 | 3695649 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

BTFD, but this is getting crazy to say the least

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:10 | 3695652 jomama
jomama's picture

great chart on the mines.  i've been looking for those data for at least a month.  thanks again TD for succintly summarizing the departure between supply vs. demand and reality vs. bullshit.

i've been able to add 500oz. Ag in the smackdown.  looks like i can afford to add Au as well (while this lasts)!

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:33 | 3695818 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Math Man and the Million Dollar Bonus both claimed that " It only takes five dollars to get it out of the ground ".

So, fuck 'em all, I say. Get a shovel, and cut out all the middlemen, I say.

Thar's GOLD in them thar hills, boys !

There.

Full blown Mexican retail SARC for the day.

i feel much better now.

P.S. - BUY THE FUCKING DIPS YOU CRAZY BITCHEZ !!!!!!

AND, FUCK YOU BERNANKE - LAP DOG TO THE KLINGONS FROM URANUS. 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:11 | 3695653 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Nonsense. Most gold is mined at costs well below 800$.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:13 | 3695673 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Nope.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:55 | 3696526 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Lol. Overblown gold production costs as last hopium for broke gold bugs. You guys are so funny.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 20:45 | 3697439 noless
noless's picture

So what's your target for pms? Portfolio makeup?

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 04:56 | 3698371 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Don't bother.  They never answer that question.  They just like to pop in, fling some poo, and then leave.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:15 | 3695683 jomama
jomama's picture

(citation needed)

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:15 | 3695684 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Prove it.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:40 | 3695863 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Good to see you--I was worried you dropped out.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:49 | 3695929 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Hey there. I am here daily though I don't always comment. Came out of my hidey hole like many of the old timers around here to get a read on this being a big shift or another gyration. Good to see you too!

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:01 | 3695988 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Thanks.  I know there was some kind of a "issue" among many when some policies changed but I was out of town and missed the whole thing.  It seems like a few just checked out.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:20 | 3696085 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It was all does raycicississts who were insulting Swiss sensibilities.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:38 | 3696679 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Just poppin' up to say "HEY!" to all of you.

Now back to the daily reading grind....

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:15 | 3695689 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Link please..

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:49 | 3695925 NeverForgetSilver
NeverForgetSilver's picture

Not working. Is it 2009's number? The cost is going up ~200/year.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:38 | 3696154 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

It's a picture of a 49'er panning for Gold in his boots with a pipe in his mouth.

Just jokin' around people; I'd be sad about the 4 oz.'s I bought at $1,600 if I hadn't lost them in the lake.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:46 | 3695908 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Read This: PWC 2013 gold mining survey of mine executives
See page 4: Assumed gold price for capital investment is over $1300 all the way out to 2016

http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/mining/publications/pwc-global-gold-price-su...

Read the first few pages also..

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:16 | 3695694 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> Most

Most?  That's a bit vague.  Define most.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:21 | 3695734 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are thinking of tungsten filled "gold".  We are talking about pure AU.

Also, note SRSRocco has prooved quite definitively that "cash costs" are total bullshit.  Nothing but accounting games.

Commercials going long also shows that the miners are now losing money on every ounce mined.  The only reason a miner would go long a metal they produce is as a last gasp effort to source capital before going bankrupt (ie betting it all on black).

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:22 | 3695742 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Are you related to Johnny Bravo?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:22 | 3696089 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I still miss his comic relief sometimes.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:40 | 3696691 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Nothing comic about a pimply-faced college kid working out of his mom's basement.  He admitted it!

Well, all but the pimples anyway.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:25 | 3695746 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I think the people that buy gold jewelry pay about that much, no shovels involved.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 16:08 | 3695791 epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

Define "Nonsense" - for as we have seen, some things that are nonsense are well accepted as "common/normal sense".

Define "Most"

Define "minded at cost"

Define "well below".

And interestingly (maybe), you will have to define $1, and that would be the biggest problem here, for you do not have anything to define it against in the physical world.

The only thing that is not questionable, although it may be in terms of it's purity, is Gold.

Try to be more precise the next time you post, for otherwise, only by words, we can go to the end of the universe( even if not well defined, this does not change the material result in our case  ) in a second ( as defined here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second ).

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 05:08 | 3698373 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Please refer to my post below.

Define "Nonsense"

A contradiction is one type of nonsense. So the article does indeed contain an instance of nonsense, in its title of all places, although it is probably just an unintentional error.

Define "Most"

More than 50% of all gold mined in a certain period of time. The Barclays paper defines "Average cash cost" as the 50th percentile (which is more precisely a median), measured in USD/oz. I assume, and it looks like, they mean "the 50th percentile of all costs of production weighed by quantity produced" (I don't have the full paper to confirm this).
If, according to the analysis in the paper, the cheapest 50% of all gold mined cost $673/oz or lower, then all gold mined at cost $673/oz or lower represents at least 50% of all gold mined. Barring the extremely unlikely possibility that all gold mined at cost $673/oz or lower represents exactly 50% of all gold mined and that at the same time there is absolutely no production at a cost in the open interval (673,800), there is a number in the left-closed interval [673,800) which represents a cost of production at which most gold is mined! In reality, of course, that number is very, very close to $673/oz.

Define "minded at cost"

This is tricky, because it is hard to precisely measure the cost, but if we take what the Barclays paper refers to as "cash cost" and "cost of production" and their data it makes perfect sense.

The Barclays data and analysis probably shouldn't be taken as very credible, reliable or accurate though.

Define "well below".

$673 versus $800 seems to fit that description.

However, it should be pointed out that Wolferl's comment is indeed in agreement with the Barclays paper, for what it's worth, and it makes sense.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:29 | 3695798 fuu
fuu's picture

Hey fonzannoon, this was an actual butt-kicking.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:34 | 3695826 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It certainly is. I just wish it would close down $500 an ounce today and another $700 overnight so i can wake up tomorrow and get on with things one way or the other.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:38 | 3695852 fuu
fuu's picture

I still have a bid in at $0 for all of it. I'll take the silver too when it gets there.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:42 | 3695878 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

it looks like you are going to get hit. The best gtc order ever put in.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:44 | 3695894 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I may put in a bid at .01 then.  But I probably won't be able to afford all of it, so you should still get plenty.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:05 | 3696013 fuu
fuu's picture

Dude it's not worth $0.01.

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:52 | 3696235 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am your green arrow. That's where sarcasm gets you these days.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 18:15 | 3697037 fuu
fuu's picture

I give not one fuck about arrows.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:39 | 3695858 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Double nonsense Wolferl - see post above - you are off the mark by $795.00. 

Take your spot in the great Zero Hedge pantheon of heroic trolls along side of Math Man, Million Dollar Boner, and my personal favorite, Robot Trader.

At least they made retarded statements into high entertainment.  

You drag it down to DOL wicket critter bureaucrat dry and lifeless.

FAIL. 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:39 | 3696455 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

$500 houses in Detroit don't cost $500 to built, yet there they are.

Gold, like everything else, is worth only as much as the next guy is willing to pay for it.

If gold already dug out of the ground had all vanished, then the cost of mining would mean something. Instead all it affects is price of future gold - not the chunk in your pocket that is losing its purchasing power against the much hated USD you spent to acquire it.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 21:05 | 3697478 noless
noless's picture

Exactly like those houses you mentioned, it's all contextual.

(additional four paragraphs omitted (but saved) due to lack of cause for posting).

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 03:00 | 3698281 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Actually you are right in that:

1. The title of this article says:

Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost

Which is a nonsense. It's probably just an unintentional error. Tyler must've meant to say the 2013 estimated cash cost (including CapEx), which is what he is talking about in the article itself.

2. The Barclays paper, quoted first in the first linked article and then used as a source again in this article, states:

Last year, the average cost of production was $673/oz

So that contradicts the title. And this $673/oz figure is indeed well below $800, but it does not include CapEx and is probably not a very precise or reliable number anyway.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:12 | 3695658 achmachat
achmachat's picture

for silver, we've been under break-even costs of most of the primary miners for more than three months now.

One by one, they're either massively laying off personnel or just shutting down.

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:53 | 3695948 NeverForgetSilver
NeverForgetSilver's picture

Barrick laid off a few hundred poeple last week

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3695678 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Also, that old tie between US money supply and USD gold price - you can forget about that, don't give it another thought - just a long coincidental correlation, no real relationship.  OR, maybe the money supply's queued to drop by 1.2 trillion in short order.  Either way, just remember, as long as you ignore all those annoying anomalies, your best source of information about the value of gold remains the plunging price of the paper version of it, and the sage comments of the always-on-it financial media, certainly not the 'pretty much all of human history' role of gold as a store of value.

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 14:45 | 3696191 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3695679 Bigtime8111
Bigtime8111's picture

I'll consider buying below $1000.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:28 | 3695789 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

$700 seems fair price. Still wouldn't even then ...

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 21:26 | 3697530 noless
noless's picture

Anyone have a link to a live steel/iron billet feed that's free?

My stupid ass can't find one..

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 20:13 | 3697340 auric1234
auric1234's picture

I'm waiting for it to hit $0. Then I'll buy all the gold ever mined.

 

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3695680 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Can someone tell me how GDXJ pays a dividend (quoted at about 9% at it's curent price)?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:19 | 3695719 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Depending on what gold stocks they own, they could be getting it from there, as well as taking money from the fund itself to pay those dividends (not sure if this is legal, just a guess). Think of it this way, if they are paying more in dividends than they are receiving and pay dividends from new purchases, they can charge fees. Remember dividends are not a gain, they are subtracted from the price of the stock, it's what the stock does after the dividend gets paid that counts. IMHO, it is stupid to tax dividends when someone has not sold the stocks. Ajusting the cost basis would be better, but the government likes to steal and is too lazy to track that sort of stuff.

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:20 | 3695729 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

They're short the GLD?

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 13:14 | 3695681 It is a bargin ...
It is a bargin my friend's picture

I dare them to drop it to zero, double dare them, triple fucking dare them

Wed, 06/26/2013 - 15:29 | 3696417 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

When it drops to zero, I will replace my front door with a GOLD.

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