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Citi: Are Gold And Silver Finding A Bottom?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Gold and Silver appear to be in the process of finding a bottom; however, the price action could continue to be choppy in the coming weeks. Ultimately Citi's FX Technicals group, as the following charts suggest, expect both precious metals to move much higher in the long term with the potential for Silver to be the outperformer, as was the case from 2008 to 2011.

Via Citi FX Technicals,

Are Gold and Silver finding a bottom?

Gold and Silver appear to be in the process of finding a bottom; however, the price action could continue to be choppy in the coming weeks. Ultimately we expect both precious metals to move much higher in the long term with the potential for Silver to be the outperformer, as was the case from 2008 to 2011.

Our original target for this Gold correction was $1,260, which was the target of the double top. This would also have resulted in the same high to low move on a percentage basis as seen in March – October 2008.

Gold has overshot that target, though only slightly (the 2008 high to low correction was 34% while this one has been 36%). The bottoming process in 2008 can still serve as a template for what might still come for Gold:

  • After rallying through September-October 2008, Gold made one final push down to a low 7.4% lower than the previous one
  • After rallying through April, Gold has made a push lower and similar move to the last one in 2008 would suggest a bottom would be put in at $1,224. The low so far has been $1,221 and consolidation seems to be taking place.

Daily momentum is also at the most stretched level seen since the Gold correction in 2008

One important thing to note is that after posting the low of the correction on October 24, 2008, Gold did not immediately shoot up in a V-shaped bottom. Rather, it consolidated over the next 2-3 weeks and did not begin the next move higher until after turning off of the 76.4% retracement of the bounce off the lows and then breaking through the pivot. This suggests that if $1,221 is the low, we may still see some choppiness in the price action over the next few weeks.

Our only concern at this point is that the correction in Gold may be more like that seen from 1974-1976

The high to low correction during that time was 44% and a similar correction this time would suggest a Gold price closer to the $1,050 area. The timing would be closer in similarity as well as the correction in the 1970s took place over 1 year and 8 months whereas this one has already taken place over 1 year and 10 months (meanwhile the 2008 correction lasted only 7 months).

The most important thing to note is that whether we are seeing a pattern more like 2008 or the 1970s, we do not see this as just the beginning of a bear market in Gold; rather, this should simply be another correction in the upward trend. This would be similar to what we saw in both of those time periods (a deep correction setting up for the next move higher which would take Gold higher by multiples). We still remain of the bias that Gold will find a bottom soon and that in doing so it will form the base for a new leg higher which can take Gold to our target of $3,400 - $3,500 by 2016. Before we get there, though, we may need to see more stresses to riskier asset markets. As we have previously seen, moves higher in Gold are accelerated by either:

  • Global stresses - Europe and China come to mind as potential catalysts, with the possibility of another Euro crisis becoming more real as highlighted in Chart of the Week. The potential for tapering by the Fed has shown just how sensitive asset markets are and how easily panic selling can take place.
  • Increasing balance sheets of Central Banks / debt levels of governments - “taper talk” is still just talk and even when/should it begin, there is no plan to actually reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet; meanwhile, other major Central Banks are still in the process of accommodating or increasing their balance sheets. On the debt side, there is no indication that any major economy is actually reducing the size of outstanding debt any time soon. This might actually suggest that when Gold begins to rally again, the price change in other currencies may be greater than that in USD (a topic we will likely revisit in the future).

These dynamics continue to suggest to us that the long term trend of higher Gold prices is very much intact.

Silver should also follow suit as it attempts to find a bottom. Once it recovers, it may actually be the outperformer of the two…

As with Gold, we think the correction in Silver should end up being similar in magnitude to that seen in 2008. The 60% correction would suggest Silver bottoming around $19.75, though it has already overshot that level. However, as with Gold, our bias is that Silver is in the process of bottoming before a more aggressive move higher, such as that seen after the correction in 2008. That suggests a move in Silver to over $100 by 2016.

The Gold/Silver ratio shows that in the correction of 2008, Silver severely underperformed Gold (correcting 60% versus 34%). Then as both moved higher, Silver outperformed, rallying 488% versus 181% for Gold.

This correction again has seen Gold do better (less badly?) and the ratio is approaching resistance around 67, the 76.4% retracement of the 2009-2011 move lower. If Gold and Silver are bottoming, as we expect, than it would not be surprising for the ratio to begin to turn around the resistance area as well. This would mean Silver could once again be the outperformer over the next few years.

 

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Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:33 | 3702128 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

"The Bernanke is the only bottom I'll ever need.  Go POMO (or DOMA or whatever)." -- Obama, Greenspan, The Bush, et al.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:34 | 3702136 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

The price action of the miners was interesting, a least today.  Price of gold tumbled , yet miners were all up for the most part.  Perhaps the capitulation is close,  i hope not, i have more fiat to convert and would love to see 1000

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:35 | 3702140 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

As Tyler would say, 'presented without comment.'

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-predicts-gold-3400-next-two-years

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:39 | 3702154 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

Ah man that hurts. And the comments... "My stack is a shiny as ever". I needed that, thanks.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:44 | 3702175 ACP
ACP's picture

Funny thing is, for hundreds of years, alchemists have tried to discover how to turn lead into gold. Over the next decade, I'm sure there will be a lot of people who will need to turn their gold into lead. Hot, fully jacketed, and 3200 fps.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:00 | 3702222 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I wonder if the Ponzi takes the direction in which we will see $2500 silver and $130,000. If by then, most of the planet has not awakened yet, then you know you are living in a complete illusion.

Pound of tomatoes for $100, etc.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:31 | 3702303 dryam
dryam's picture

ZH is awesome, but seriously, why would anyone give a rat's ass what a bank has to say about anything.  Please stop posting this shit.  It takes away from the plethora of really great articles.  Less is more.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:58 | 3702466 kito
kito's picture

Yes.....we need more Simon black articles.....

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 02:22 | 3702559 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Is Citi setting up longs that have been waiting for another smackdown?

Their muppets are buying that pump tonight.

Gold and Silver reversed the opening smackdown in Asia.  

Live Spot Gold: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

Live Spot Silver: http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

A bank wants to discredit gold and silver by pumping it, before another smackdown?

Or is Citi now sufficiently long to start the pump?

Or is Citi trying to take on JPM?  

Maybe the battle between the banks is beginning. :-)

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 06:06 | 3702657 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

The long term problem is debt. Debt of the individuals, corporations, municipalites and central governments. The Fed and CBs don't care about th efirst group and not too much about the second (unless you are GM or one of the Big 7 Bankers).

The municipal debt...so-so.

However, the Gubmint is their survval so the CBs will work hard holding rates down (and the currency weak) for years to come. Higher rates may not be possible since the high debt service would cause serious proiblems -- like inability to pay (insolvency) or immiediate debasement a la Venazuela or Argentina.

Thus, long term these undervalued hard assets will rise as currencies are  continually devalued.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:18 | 3703017 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

My kids are calling me "bagholder"..., I wonder what they mean?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:26 | 3703219 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Russia launches physical gold exchange:

 

http://rt.com/business/moscow-exchange-trading-metals-326/

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 06:26 | 3702678 malikai
malikai's picture

A yes, Lead Into Gold. Not just Alchemists, great artists as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws1YbZbhdl4

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 07:54 | 3702798 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

as an ave investor I will only buy PM's when they hit new highs...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:57 | 3703304 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

That is possible. Don't try this at home! Lead can be turned into gold, but it will be mostly unstable and decay relatively fast.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:54 | 3703296 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Alchemists were trying the wrong material. They should have tried paper. It turns in to gold.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:55 | 3703120 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

we are close to othe same correction of 2008, after that the rally in PM's was outstanding...

http://zysites.com/silververitas/

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:41 | 3702163 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

12/13

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:45 | 3702181 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Doesn't anyone read anymore...

chief among them is without doubt the firm's outlook on gold which they see at $2400 in the second half of 2012, and moving "toward $3400 over the next 2 years or so." So for those looking at today's price action, consider it an opportunity to roll out of paper exposure and into gold, because the more deflationary the environment gets, the more eager the central planning cabal will be to add a zero 

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:52 | 3702201 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Time will tell.  I wouldn't wipe my ass with JPM toilet paper.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:58 | 3702218 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Citi is worse than JPM in my opinion but that's splitting hairs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-jumps-citi-says-gold-sell-over-reiter...

according to a note just released by Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick, the gold correction "has run its course and a rally is now back on the cards." Granted it is not all smooth sailing - "Gold may drop to $1,550 before turning", but when the turn comes, Fitzpatrick sees it as going all the way up to $2,400. He has the following technical observations: "Only a weekly close below $1,535/oz means corrections may be deeper."

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:05 | 3702236 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I'm buying tomorrow.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:37 | 3703068 Magnix
Magnix's picture

No, not just yet. Im waiting to go down much lower and Ill buy some gold coins on ebay.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:04 | 3702965 malikai
malikai's picture

By the way, I'm nearly certain that Jamies toilet paper is among the best in the world.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 02:58 | 3702581 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

No,nobody reads. As for gold going to $2400 in the second half of 2012, don't hold your breath.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:42 | 3702167 seek
seek's picture

Hey, they still have six months. It could happen. I'd take the under, but it could.

Anyone have any doubt we'll see that figure within the next 10 years?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:21 | 3702409 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

chart readers are NEVER correct.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:23 | 3703568 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Wrong!
"Chart Readers" may well be correct (!)
but the folk who draw these funny charts

and weird lines and strange averages may be not...

I can tell you: My technical analysis of these

numbers look a lot different than ZH's and I have

"some" experience, as "they" say... hehe

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:02 | 3702470 joego1
joego1's picture

Joego predicts is will go down then it will go up.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 08:31 | 3702889 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Yeah, the word "however" is getting a lot of use these days.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 18:04 | 3711506 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

is LOL still a comment? :D

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:44 | 3702443 bonin006
bonin006's picture

I am responsible for the price action of the miners today. I had just changed my thinking to hoping they would drop more so I could pick some up cheaper, so naturally they went up instead.

(response to groundhog day - up at the top)

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:39 | 3702514 underman
underman's picture

QE to infinity is all you need to know.  Now that taper is back off the table, PMs have some catching up to do!

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:36 | 3702147 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Gold advice from a bankrupt bailed out institution. Priceless.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:39 | 3702156 seek
seek's picture

You can't trust any bank.

That said, I'd trust Citi's statments on PMs over JPM or GS.

I can't wait for all of them to see their balance sheets burned to cinders in the Great Reset.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:18 | 3702272 kito
kito's picture

balance sheets??? more like vertigo sheets.............................

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:21 | 3702279 kito
kito's picture

im buying all the way down to 1000 fonz......started tonight................im in the club!!! whooohoooo!!!!.....

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:31 | 3702301 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i'm speechless.

 

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:40 | 3702320 kito
kito's picture

why so, ive been warning you of this day...............................

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:43 | 3702325 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

just make sure they throw in a free tin foil hat. you need it to get into the meetings.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:45 | 3702335 kito
kito's picture

fonzbrother......im already a full fledged member of the tinfoil hat club.........its just that mine is a slightly different style..........................

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:51 | 3702345 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yeah good point. well nice job jumping in when supposedly everyone else is jumping out

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:59 | 3702363 kito
kito's picture

well fonz, if im wrong about how gold ends, id rather pick up the metal when there is blood in the streets.....this gold drop is not the result of some deleveraging deflationary tsunami....this just smells like a fear laden correction that doesnt seem to correlate to anything in particular............

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:38 | 3702435 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

If you want to be a full member, though, just make sure it's the real thing and not any paper facsimile.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:49 | 3702453 kito
kito's picture

American eagles....uncirculated.....

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:04 | 3702473 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Full member then.  Soon you'll be following the bullion banks' every move, watching the COTs, trying to figure out how much gold is really in Fort Knox, whether China's short paper or just buying indiscriminately behind the scenes - it's worse than taking the damned red pill.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 17:42 | 3704798 blindman
blindman's picture

manufactured buying opportunity for insiders,
desired distribution by other means.
buy, buy, buy if u can securely do so.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 02:22 | 3702560 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

I would rather wear a tinfoil hat than a dunce cap.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:54 | 3702353 devo
devo's picture

My brother started on this dip, too, and he's a huge paperbug. Not sure who they're scaring out.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:37 | 3702149 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

I think the market essentially with inflation rebooted back to 2007~2009.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:38 | 3702152 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Is Citi covering shorts in the PM sector?

 

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:40 | 3702158 Blopper
Blopper's picture

Price of gold is zero.

USD is precious.

Rothschild says so.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:33 | 3702173 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Sign me up for some of that "free" Rothschild gold.  I'll even toss a few joo bucks back to them for each oz they send me to cover shipping.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:43 | 3702161 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Finally some talk on silver and gold that makes sense.  This selloff has been overdone already.  US debt and unfunded liabilties continue to increase at $8.55 trillion a year (or $23.4 billion a day) per USdebtclock.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:41 | 3702162 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

Silver futures now green. Up 1%. That's fun.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:41 | 3702164 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

Stacking....since 1976....my parents told me i was being foolish with the money i earned.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:39 | 3702319 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

My Mom still thinks I am nuts for stacking, and I am 50+ (she is 70+) LOL. 

Stacking silver and gold since 1982, collecting coins since the 1960's.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 03:04 | 3702583 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

No big deal, you can persuade your Mom after you get back from summer camp as gold goes to $2400 in the second half of 2012.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:52 | 3703107 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

No persuading her.  She belives in Obama, the FED and MSNBC. 

I wish I was at summer camp, it's going to hit 107 here today (117 in Phoenix).  Maybe Al Gore is right? Just kidding, but boy is it hot!

As for the $2400 perdiction on the price of gold, I am looking forward to that.  Let's hope you are right.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:43 | 3702170 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

What about just using a ruler and a fat marker and looking at the support line during 2010 to 2013 around $25.  Keep thinking that the downside for SILV is still there whereas Gold should be bottom here.  Haven't looked at GOLD/SILV ratio in a long time so maybe further weakness just for silver doesn't fit.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 17:44 | 3711456 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

BECAUSE no support line can ever be established that way. You need non-linear equations & you need log-scale graphs or you aren't even in the game. "support" is not a simple line - ever.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:44 | 3702174 Car 54 Where Are U
Car 54 Where Are U's picture

I'm buying physical and playing the arbitrage between a small miner's 5% discount to spot and his refineries repurchase at 1% below spot. When it hits bottom I'll start the buy and hold rather than flip. Right now I'm quite pleased to take the 4% no matter the price and build my store of dry powder for the bottom in gold and silver.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:45 | 3702178 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

With DOMA nullified finding a bottom should be easy, for gold, silver, Barry Pakalolo ...

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:08 | 3702248 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Alright hedgetard.  I have to admit that I was smoking a cigarette out of the screen off window of my non smoking apartment when I noticed a happy lesbian couple go skipping by, arm in arm, below.  After observing the cottage cheese and the buzzcuts, perhaps it's best to let nature take it's course?

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:19 | 3702273 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

There are beautiful lez women who don't need to make themselves look like hipster clones of the lez stereotype.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:31 | 3702299 g'kar
g'kar's picture

Yeah, but most of them are on TV as rent-o-prentend-o-lez's

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:33 | 3702308 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

They still can't reproduce and are rather disgusting to the people whom are looking to perpetrate the species rather than be selfish and live in a delusion that natural isn't a cold-hearted and brutal bitch.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:37 | 3702313 g'kar
g'kar's picture

You forgot about the turkey baster method for getting pregnant.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:24 | 3702416 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

They'd have to find a willing male victim, and not many of those that would be willing are very fertile. Have you seen what passes for a Man these days?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:40 | 3702439 g'kar
g'kar's picture

LOL

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 05:27 | 3702633 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

That's really only a problem of the modern "West", not so much for the rest of the world.   How many of our fatherless children do you expect to survive a full blown crisis?  We hope they all do, but the fact is that not many will.   Real "Men" are few and far between, ask any woman that has her shit even 1/2 together, she knows.  It's in her nature to look for a good man.  Most dont even know what it is to be a good woman.  That's why we're fckd.  We don't just need a financial reset, we need a complete reset.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:25 | 3705299 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

Many in American culture who follow(ed) Oprah,  Sally Jesse and even the other trash shows. These are men bashing shows and bitches that run them.

As society attempt to cut off the bawls of every man in America they invent a new term called "metrosexual" and want these girly-men to identify with it.

Then they wonder why they cant get properly fucked buy anyone.

Ironic that the song "Where Have all the Cowboys Gone" is popular as they castrate at will.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 17:42 | 3711446 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

idiot. If they're not sterile they can definitely reproduce.
Plenty of men willing to help out in that department.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:45 | 3702180 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

What the fuck is CITI even talking about?  I am not seeing a bottom until tomorrow at the earliest.  This is HFTville.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:16 | 3702396 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

while buying dip is very tempting here the 60 min chart candle that included the run to 1180 was a bearish engulfing. Probably (based on what I've seen out of these kinds of engulfing candles) portends another run down. Maybe to the 1150ish level which many are saying is key, technically.

Of course, the day is coming where all the technical analysis in the world won't matter because the sham that is the system will get exposed and possession=the law. if you don't hold it you don't own it. 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:25 | 3702417 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

I'm giving minimal leeway, though, as far as holding out for slightly better entry. W/in few days I'm buying more phyzz.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:48 | 3702451 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

also very recently there was on 5 hr chart (probably less looked at I would think than other timeframes but still perhaps significant) a bearish engulfing candle, then a bullish engulfing. So there's a 60 min. chart bearish engulfing that has not had a follow through downturn, and a bearish engulfing on 5hr and bullish engulfing on 5hr. Just something to perhaps keep in mind. So far nice rally off 18.18 on silver.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 17:38 | 3711430 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

significant? Really? Translate the possible gains as a "lower price" delta and work-hours you saved. Compare that to the risk that it won't be delivered at that price. Or any price lower than today.
your call.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:47 | 3702185 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Someone is on a buying spree for equities in the low volume after hours

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:50 | 3702195 blindman
blindman's picture

Ask the Expert - Jim Sinclair - Sprott Money News
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNjAg9x1_s8&feature=youtu.be
.
27 June 2013
Stand and Deliver: How Germany Disrupted the World's Gold Market
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/06/stand-and-deliver-how-g...

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:56 | 3702213 lickspitler
lickspitler's picture

Jim Sinclair  is uncanny. he has been calling the bottom since $1820.

He has made alot of people very rich.

 

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:12 | 3702257 blindman
blindman's picture

"From Jim Sinclair:

The economic system is failing, and to counter the now publicly perceived failure, central planners are manipulating the symptoms and not the problem.

Gold has never been easy.
Gold is the tell tale of a broken system.
Gold therefore is the barometer of the risk factors of economic conditions.

Therefore central planners must make, via paper gold, every effort to make it say, “All is Ok.” For this reason I intend, knowing the system is in collapse, to buy gold with every resource I have at my disposal today and tomorrow.

I suggest those of stout heart do the same.

To the others who are committed to their limit, hunker down one more time knowing that in no more than the summer a brand new and most powerful bull market in gold will be at hand.

Respectfully,
Jim "
http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-sinclair-selling-everything-to-buy-gold/
.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 17:36 | 3711426 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

BLAH blah blah
gold, bitchez
BLAH blah blah
I like the executive summary.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 03:08 | 3702585 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

Yeah, but at least followers of Sinclair have the pleasure of always being right!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 06:55 | 3702715 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> he has been calling the bottom since $1820.

Mr. Sinclair also said to sell half your pile at $1,650 and play with the house's money.  Did you happen to remember that, or do it?  Besides, who besides crony shitbags who get the inside information from the PTB, who called this crash?

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:02 | 3702226 drinkin koolaid
drinkin koolaid's picture

Someone should sue that moron Sinclair. He has called every bottom in gold since the $1921 high on 9/6/2011.

His $1650 call on gold when it was $250 was uncanny, but as a trader/investor you're only as good as your last trade and he's blown all his cred.

 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 06:56 | 3702717 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> that moron Sinclair.

FU shitbag.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:04 | 3702232 drinkin koolaid
drinkin koolaid's picture

How about " ask the Jackass" instead?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:43 | 3702523 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Ok, so I'll ask you then.....well?

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:51 | 3702196 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

at the top of this web page (the one I'm looking at anyway) is the following ad:

Gold Price Falls to $750 www.Survive-Prosper.com

Why The Gold Price Will Fall to $750. Steps You Need to Take NOW


I know when we start seeing crap like this, the bottom is almost in.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:29 | 3702291 Manic by Proxy
Manic by Proxy's picture

You may be correct. However, since silver is down over 60% since its $49 and change high, a similar "correction" in gold would be $750-800. Makes you go "hmmmm".

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 23:41 | 3711419 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

that's not what "similar" means.
Look at the log-scale (both silver & gold) overlay chart:
the % moves aren't equal for both. The linear distance may be on the log-chart on the overlay. This itself has its own trending pattern and is not stable at all times.
3 years: http://scharts.co/15ZLB6H
1 year: http://scharts.co/11biX6E
As you can see the drop isn't equal for both in % terms. From 49 to 19 corresponds to the same move of 1900 to 1230.
1230 / 1900 = 0.64736842105263157894736842105263 or a drop of -35%. The linear distance on the log-scale chart is the same on the left side and right side.

10:30 edit: how's about a picture. I went to all the trouble to grab fresh data & add the equations to the picture description box (they are better than what I wrote above, which I won't erase because I went to the trouble of writing it in the first place):

http://flic.kr/p/f17z1s

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:51 | 3702198 The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

These asian beat downs are interestingly timed after the Moody's downgrade of Hong Kong and the attack on the chinese bank portal. I think there are A LOT of threats and bluffs going on behind the scenes that we are not hearing about.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 22:55 | 3702211 topspinslicer
topspinslicer's picture

Simply using SLV as a proxy due to availabilty of volume numbers its heaviest volume day had about 275 million shares traded. This recent downtrend has seen only moderately heavy volume at best (couple of 30 million share days and a couple of 50 million share days) -- for the trend to reverse there needs to be blow-off selling evidenced by very heavy volume indicative of market maker accumulation. I too am a physical stacker but until there is a total disconnect between the paper and the physical this is the reality we are facing.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 16:52 | 3711331 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

SLV is no proxy.

http://goldprice.org/gold-prices/1004-silver-coins/Silver_Rounds_1_Year_Premium.png

SLV's price doesn't fluctuate with the actual price needed to acquire ounces of silver.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:03 | 3702230 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Speaking of queers (Goldberg, Silverman & Diamond) if these programmed same sex bots don't plan on procreating the species what's the point of them sticking arout eating for 80yrs? Arn't we having a resorce shotage because the resorces seem to get blownup or shipped to rothchina? ?

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:07 | 3702244 blindman
blindman's picture

http://www.silverdoctors.com/chart-of-the-day-epic-plunge-in-total-comex...
Chart of the Day: Epic Plunge in Total COMEX Gold Inventory
May 29, 2013 By The Doc
.
....

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:09 | 3702250 drinkin koolaid
drinkin koolaid's picture

I'll say it again. No market ever ends a downtrend in any timeframe without a powerful preliminary support and selling climax.

In the big timeframes that process takes time. Let the market tell you when the odds of a new bull market have increased substantially by having patience and waiting for the climax.

Any who makes these ridiculous calls about some mythical price bottom proves to me they know crap about making money consistently in markets.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:10 | 3702251 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Why would gold and silver 'find a bottom' unless the clueless masses finally get it that santa throwing money from helicopters isn't helping them and that the paper they hold so dear is oh ever so ephemeral?

Since the chances of that happening aren't all that great, it will have to be the banksters themselves that for whatever nefarious reasons find that bottom for us all, and it won't be to help us make or keep them honest.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:10 | 3702252 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'm a buyer at $35 per OZ. Missed my chance the last time.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:16 | 3702269 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

first off the "lie" is and has always been that Large Scale Asset Purchases somehow represent/represented "easy money." one look at the growth and inflation numbers shows just how much the Fed doesn't understand what it's doing. Second and even more obviously any loss of said liquidity represents a a FURTHER tightening! (just look at how interest rates responded.) i think the "genie is out of the bottle" and the Asset Purchase Program will be wound down in short order. I also think this is BULLISH for treasuries and debt markets...not bearish...and that this panic should be bought not sold. I see in the economic numbers that says inflation nor anything saying the Federal Government will soon default. Japan and China maybe...but not the Federal Government. Insofar as gold and silver is concerned obviously since we all now know the Federal Reserve has been behaving in a DEFLATIONARY manner "trying to catch this falling knife" in precious metals will be challenging indeed. The world's biggest seller of gold (Europe) is in a depression and the world's biggest buyer (China) has had it's credit markets seize up. that does not make me bullish on PRICE. obviously this has been true with me for five years so i have a lot a time to be wrong here as well. i like silver...always have...but i wouldn't be going hog wild with the price differential still well off the "panic levels" of the 1970's. we appear to be in the midst of a MASSIVE liquidation globally right now "with the American people the marginal buyer of everything." that's not a place the world wants to be in right now. the American people are flat broke from consuming all the world's crap. And a hell of lot of their own crap i might add. having said that seeing the US savings rate jump is (baaaarely) bullish for precious metals. there is "something" of an economic recovery. obviously equities keep skying higher. i still believe equities will sell off...treasuries will rally (ferociously from here in my view) and gold and silver will offer themselves up as deals of a lifetime...but we shall see. "be greedy when others are fearful" and these are fearsome drops in precious metals.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:19 | 3702271 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Gold was $270 an ounce september 2001, and gasoline was $1.70, I see Gold @ 450ish and gas @ 2.50ish in a couple years...give or take 5 years

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 16:49 | 3711325 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

never happen.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:24 | 3702278 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Calculating the Cost of the Libor Scandal to Investors

"Ramada is among a growing number of mathematicians and analysts trying to tackle a key question to emerge from the Libor scandal: If banks manipulated rates tied to $300 trillion in instruments ranging from mortgages to student loans, how much do the firms owe investors?"

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-27/calculating-the-cost-of-...

 

It is way more than they are saying and way more than the "fines" that will be paid.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:29 | 3702292 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Survey sez: Bail- ins.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:40 | 3702321 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Speaking of that, Bill Gross said something about there being a "sea wind change" with investors starting to turn to TIPS over the last 24-48 hours.  So, if they anticipate inflation, why is gold going down?

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:29 | 3702293 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 I'm 100% bullish on gold!!!!!!

 As long as you're the one getting crushed, I'll play the game.

 

 

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:43 | 3702328 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Iran, Russia and China prop up Assad economy

Iran, Russia and China are propping up Syria’s war-ravaged economy, with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime doing all its business in rials, roubles and renminbi as it seeks to beat western sanctions, according to the country’s senior economics minister.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/79eca81c-df48-11e2-a9f4-00144feab7de.html

 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:08 | 3702382 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture
ADD
Thu, 06/27/2013 - 23:55 | 3702355 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

Hmmm. Where is the bottom in Gold??? That would make a good Irish Poem!

 

A Gold Bug Begins To Have Doubts

Oh! Where is the Bottom in Gold???

It's a question best asked by the Bold!

The Answer is nearer. . .

Than you think. There's a Mirror!

Just look! There's the BOTTOM! Behold!

 

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:06 | 3702378 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Is it true your so tight that you Squeek...?

 

With your fiat that is.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:11 | 3702391 kito
kito's picture

you know, im no gold bug, but arrogance and schadenfreude usually ends up hitting a wall of karma........

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:30 | 3702426 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

kito: OH I know, and trust me, I am trying to hold back and be kind, helpful, and tolerant in my criticisms of Gold Bugs. It is not easy, and sometimes I fail, but some of these Gold Bugs are just "very resistant" to logic and reason, and sooo sometimes you just have to WHOMP! them upside the head with the 2x4 of Peace and Understanding, metaphorically speaking. Usually, it's the 2x4 that breaks first.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:19 | 3702464 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Squeeky,

One doesn't "warn" or gloat, but opinions about a market are, or should be, perfectly acceptable.  Of course, often they (opinions) are not welcome.

Case in point:  About $500 ago I wrote a somewhat tongue-in-cheek post about who might be selling.  My opinion was based on the actions of those I know who had been major buyers in 1999-2002, and even earlier.  For these folks, PMs were always just a trade and an asset class.  They got as much blood out of the rock as they thought they could get, so they liquidated into the froth of the late arrivals.  I got lambasted here, and on the only other site at which I was a member, I actually got banned.  Apparently my opinion fell in that nether world of blasphemy, heresy and apostasy, or showed my "lack of proper geometry and theology" (you'll know the literary reference).  The mods at that site even went full NSA and rifled what that site called "Private Messages" between members, looking for additional evidence of heresy.  I had shared my opinion with another member, who also got banned, I guess because he did not burn my messages on a golden altar.

More recently, in response to the silliness referred to as "the paper price", I went out and did my own research, rather than just accept the word of those such as Jim "Mr. $2000 Spot" Willie, and found I could buy cash-and-carry physical at the "paper" ask price.  I also asked who the major sellers were (this was well after the drop from $1700, and IIRC was closer to $1500).  The answer I was given:  Chinese.  That surprised me...but I paid attention.  I also posted that here.  Why would large Chinese sell when the government was telling its citizens to buy?  I think an answer, or the answer, might be obvious to all but the blind.

Now I could be just lucky, but it really does seem all the answers were out there in plain sight. All one needed was an open mind.

What I would like to know now is when major players will readjust their asset allocation and perhaps take another run at PMs.  I don't see it yet, so I'll let it breathe.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 23:49 | 3711321 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

oh no, squeekyTroll, tranny mouthpiece.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:12 | 3702392 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

Throw the charts in the garbage, the printing has forever changed the logic behind valuation of any potential commodity or real currency. PM's will eventually be worth more than their weight in fiat crap! This chart should go back thousands of years.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:15 | 3702394 jomama
jomama's picture

it hasn't appeared to found a bottom yet???

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:33 | 3702429 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So I'll have a chance to take more FRN's away from my banker "friends" and obtain more physical posession of Gold and Silver?

Awesome.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 00:33 | 3702430 laomei
laomei's picture

No bottom yet.  Don't pay attention to actual words, but pay attention to actions.  What are the banks doing? They are reducing inventory of physical.  The paper is the problem right now.  In some markets, it's actually done with a 1:1 ratio the way it should be done, however when it's overleveraged, you start to see this growing disparity.  The paper's not actually worth anything, however the majority of gold trade is now conducted with it.  It's used for hedging on physical as well. 

 

The QE issue is this:

The stats are being faked with loads of free money, this makes the economy magically seem "better", even though it really is worse now.  So why is gold falling if QE might be taperd back?  Two distinct markets at play, the "real" economy and the "fake" economy.  The fake economy is what drives the stock market, the real economy drives gold prices.  As long as the fake economy can be propped up, there are investments which soak up liquidity because they pay a return, while gold is an insurance policy.  The more the fake economy can be propped up, the higher the chance of the unwashed masses dumping their savings and retirement into it.  It's also political.  So, there is great incentive to pretend it's all ok.  Until the real and fake economies once again converge as they did in 2009, gold isn't going up. 

 

My best advice, if you are into physical, keep getting into it, and do your skimming with paper to make some profit to buy more physical.  Short the paper and keep reserves in place until the massive crash we all know is coming.  The day that happens, gold WILL shoot up.  You don't need perfect timing, don't try to catch falling knives.... just momo that shit and come out ahead. 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:09 | 3702462 devo
devo's picture

Bought a few things tonight.

Thanks for the deal, Bernake.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:11 | 3702480 Doug Eberhardt
Doug Eberhardt's picture

I wrote an article yesterday asking the question, Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver? http://bit.ly/14bkOpZ

The only mistake I made was not waiting two more days before releasing my bullish article because I forgot it was quarterly options expiration which brings volatility (like what we saw after hours today).

There is an 80% probability that the metals are moving higher over the next 3 months based on past 10 years of data I compiled. I like those odds!

 

 

 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:18 | 3702494 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Japan up 4.5ish%?

LOL. We are fucked. This is the end, no doubt. I expect S&P 500 within the near future--or simply the lack of existence of the S&P. Is there anyone out there that is not laughing in fear of the absurd movements?

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 16:44 | 3711314 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I care not at all. It isn't a tangible thing. I can't stack S&P500. I can't barter it.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:22 | 3702501 Darth Stacker
Darth Stacker's picture

Who cares if this is a bottom? Anyone ever heard of DCA? Just stack and forget it

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:29 | 3702506 Colonel
Colonel's picture

Back up the truck around $17 ish for silver around $900 ish for gold.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:39 | 3702517 drinkin koolaid
drinkin koolaid's picture

Colonel, Don't agree with the 900 gold, but your 17 Ag very plausible, as that would be a round trip from 17 to 49.75 and back to 17 and possibly do it all over.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 23:53 | 3711303 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

math here: http://flic.kr/p/f17z1s

17/oz silver, USD : gold at 1147 USD, +/- 4% (1103 to 1193)

 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 01:45 | 3702526 spaceduck
spaceduck's picture

oh yes yes the bottom yes, buy it, oh well in the meantime it continue to go down at a speed of 50$ daily, but the bottom! the bottom is coming! fuck you china! 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 03:18 | 3702591 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Wishful thinking. Gold goes below $1000 and silver crashes with it. How many times do I have to tell all this?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 07:07 | 3702731 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> How many times do I have to tell all this?

Maybe if you presented some validating credentials you could get some respect.  Gold trolls are as plentiful as paper gold right now.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 16:31 | 3711285 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

until it happens. which is never.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 03:33 | 3702594 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

I find the slow stochastic on the bottom of the first chart especially informative.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 16:31 | 3711284 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I also very much like the slow sarcastic indicator.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 03:39 | 3702595 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

For gold priced in USD to climb, the USD will have to fall.

 

For the USD to fall, the Euro, Yen and Pound will have to climb.

 

Euro is in a long term trend down - currently near 1.30.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-euro-weekly-weeks-straight-dollar-...

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 18:09 | 3711278 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

"For gold priced in USD to climb, the USD will have to fall.

 

For the USD to fall, the Euro, Yen and Pound will have to climb."

Incorrect. you are confusing DXY vs commodity prices in all currencies.

 

paper vs paper can change any which way up or down at the same time as gold rising in all currencies at the same time. DXY fails to show this at any time.

http://flic.kr/p/9KeGPR

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 08:22 | 3702873 esum
esum's picture

 ...... the government will be giving you 124 Grains of lead in return for all your precious metals .......

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:05 | 3702968 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

They call that analysis?

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 23:55 | 3711271 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

agreed. "silver will follow gold" and no scatterplot.
Garbagio.
No log-scale curve for 2001-2013 to plot average, peaks, lows, and volatility plotted against the lows as a baseline.
Useless.
No math relating gold, silver & interest rates or swaps or even the total capitalization of bond-markets in all currencies vs metals markets in all currencies.
That would be good to analyze.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:24 | 3703036 SirTaxedAlot
SirTaxedAlot's picture

Another "found the bottom article" eh?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 09:31 | 3703054 jaygould
jaygould's picture

yeah, that's the ticket for all u goldbugs - keep buying. and re: 1 of the comments above/below, i am no johnny-come-lately gold basher. i have been a raging bear since 1800. for those who don't believe, check out earlier posts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! it was a moronic bet as it climbed to tulip levels & continues to be, but for those in denial, including tyler d., keep buying............. 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3704783 blindman
blindman's picture

from your comments it appears you may not be aware of the
historic function of gold as it relates to man, his environment
and time.
it is not owned or purchased as a means of making money.
see?

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 16:18 | 3711235 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

turning down cheap gold is like turning down cheap (but purely good) food, gasoline, or brand new tools or even medicine. Only a fool would do that.

I'll bet you'll wait for gold to go UP to buy any. Fools. you buy low, not buy on the way up.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!