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Stocks Swing To Best Gain In 6 Months; Volume And Credit Slumping

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The bounce off the 100DMA has been quite remarkable as a plethora of Fed heads have jawboned the S&P 500 up by as much in the last 3 days as the market rose in the first few days of the year. An almost 4% gain (amid collapsing volumes) has pushed the S&P 500 up to its 50DMA and for now (despite Dudley's best efforts) it is stalling at this technical support level (whuch just happens to coincide with a 61.8% retracement of the plunge from the FOMC). In other news, credit markets (having compressed/normalized the technical skews we have discussed) are selling off rather notably. Treasury yields are lower on the day though leaking higher into the European close and the USD is continuing to rise (led by JPY weakness for now).

 

 

Has left the S&P with its best 3-day run in almost six months...

 

A 61.8% retracement of the drop...

 

But credit is not buying it...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:42 | 3699340 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Please explain before my head explodes. Is the lying just for fuck's sake anymore?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-futures-point-third-day-111732556.html

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:01 | 3699426 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The uptrend cannot be restored until 1622 is breached.  Too much amabiguous talk of taper today.   I would not be surprised if we sell off a bit tomorrow.   Classic 2H window dressing.  The dogs (AAPL) get sold, the flyers (TSLA) get bought to dangerous heights.  The algos play around with WTI.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:42 | 3699342 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

This stock market is just getting to be comical.. The last 3 days recap: Good news is good, bad news is good, good news is good haha tomorrow bad news is good! Something is seriously out of whack..

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:47 | 3699363 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

they're loading the 50 cal hilsenrath for tomorrows less than POMO and EOQ day........

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:42 | 3699343 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

Crazy market!

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:46 | 3699358 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Short squeeze. When it stalls out, the bottom falls out.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:50 | 3699361 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Completely broken markets.

I don't even know what they're worried about....-300 point DOW down day and no one even cared so why do they so desperately get back to the pumpfest for? Doesn't even make any sense, unless is a pure sucker play attempt to get some sheeple to buy...but then again that's just peanuts anyway. 

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:27 | 3699515 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Not so much about getting the loot, it's getting the time to get away with the look. This shit buys TIME.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:35 | 3699557 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just marching in place now with no way back....they ran out of time like 3 years ago.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:47 | 3699362 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

credit is just another momo that ran out of juice these days

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:50 | 3699368 ekm
ekm's picture

Let me tell you something.

 

If as FONZANOON says that the Gov may have decided to go full soviet here, then I can tell you the Government has the power to do that by harming the real economy, but the power it does have, for sure.

 

It comes down to a matter of guessing what is the Gov going to do, market moves are totally and inherently irrelevant at this stage, it's all gov.

 

I say: The gov will crash it, but that's what I guess they'll do, same as in 2008 when the Gov pushed for Lehman collapse.

 

Again and again, market moves are simply irrelevant (oil just got $97 as a reminder)

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:52 | 3699386 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Lehman, a last holdout against '1 world bank'....it had to go.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:02 | 3699431 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

or you could argue "lest it appear to be so." hard to tell. you can't say "failure isn't an option" when you have Lehman though...i agree. with all the hawks discovering the "joys of asset inflations" it is ironic that the doves are indeed "showing some claw" here. but listen...the Devil is in the details in these charts so sure..."where equity goes credit must follow." (hence i imagine the hawks screaming about MOAR!!!! now) but this is obviously too simply a view. One need only look at 2005-2007 where credit must incredibly tight (inverted yield curve!) and it still took until 2008 before "equities finally caught down." as every economist will tell you "moving the demand curve chart to the left is always in interesting theory"...but it really never happens. the Great Depression in the 1930's was pretty close though. We'll see how this European variant of that time shakes out.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:54 | 3699389 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The government will crash it, but they will have an excuse for it to crash. Maybe it's a false flag or something goes "horribly wrong" ( it will be horribly right for them) in the middle east. I don't know what the reason is, but they won't take it down before then.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:53 | 3699392 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Let's be clear, George Carlin said it.

I love our leaders and I am happy to pay taxes!

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:49 | 3699371 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Via!    the Nikki       whipsaw   coming    lead by a AAPL      

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:52 | 3699382 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

They have repeated this same sequence quite a few times over the last couple of years.  Here's the playbook:  run up the market until everyone is getting a nose bleed; then start making noise about reducing QE; then let some negative event happen like Cyprus or China credit; everyone starts moving to the short side saying "the big one is coming!"; then a day or two after things start to look like they may really go South, pull out all stops and jack the market, destroying all shorts and PM holders.  Someone is making a shit-ton of money front running these games, and we as "commoners" have no way to know when the next down-cycle will be the real one.  The market is no longer a market.  It is now 100% akin to professional wrestling.  The outcome is decided by those in charge, and the audience plays along and pretends its not rigged.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:54 | 3699400 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea so like I've been saying for years the only way to win is to not play. Plenty of other things to pursue other than 'stawks/bawnds' nonsense.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:52 | 3699387 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Oxygen runs out at high altitudes. Engines stall. Gravity is inevitable.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:53 | 3699396 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Just.Quit.Playing.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:53 | 3699398 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Rush OUT of Hi Yield to begin followed by Schtocks.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:54 | 3699401 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

sell the fucking rip.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:59 | 3699420 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

so bad for gold ...... got it 

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:01 | 3699427 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

This is really too much. Fuck everything!

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:07 | 3699444 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Great  short entry here if you are so inclined.. just wait for the reversal off the 50 dma. Wait for it...the Dudley drop.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:09 | 3699450 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

12 And I beheld when he had opened the sixth seal, and lo, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood, oil went to $200 per barrel, bonds were ripped asunder, and stocks went bidless... [/the gospel according to buzz]

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:09 | 3699455 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

It is 12 noon.  This fucker is goign down.  

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:10 | 3699461 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Ah, but wait! --  it appears the various volatility measures are now biased upward and we just dropped below triple digits on the DOW.  Unfortunately, my Russell short isn't as cooperative (damn Russell ninjas), but perhaps a B/E exit is possible (?).  It seems things aren't the same, for if this was 1Q we'd be at +225 DOW by now.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:12 | 3699466 adr
adr's picture

Who really gives a shit? The farce has reached a level that only the actors believe the show is still going on.

The audience left the show weeks ago, but the actors still show up every day and go through the routine. 

Their rationale is, if we don't go on we won't get paid, we can't do anything else.

The fact that this market keeps bouncing between perfect academic ratios proves it is run completely by computers that don't know what is going on in the real world. The real people sell in massive volume, the bots buy it back up because they are programmed to hit level x by day y, no matter what the news.

The sad part is you can't starve the beast because the beast gets to feed itself. I guess that's why the taper is so scary to the market makers. The bots gambling with funny Benny bus doesn't matter, but if they have to start using their own real money, what happens when they lose?

Kind of like a Hamptonite giving to charity, happy to give when they can write it off, take away the tax deduction and they won't give one cent.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:16 | 3699480 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 Fri, Jun 28, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 06/30/2017 - 02/28/2018 $4.25 - $5.25 billion
Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:23 | 3699496 jughead
jughead's picture

I read this comment someplace earlier...figured other "doomsayers" would get a kick out of it:

"Set for a run that will break 1750, best possible scenario is in place. Steady verifiable economic growth on numerous fronts, low or no inflation,Federal Reserve dedicated to providing a safety net, and influx into our markets worldwide. Doomsayers are always around, but these are the facts. This is happening in spite of the draconian budget cuts."

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:32 | 3699506 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Dow 15 K goodbye party hat on!  It will probably never see that level again for a long time..if we close red today.. oyvey!

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:46 | 3699603 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Just like Vegas, one big illusion.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:50 | 3699628 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

Let it play out.  CNBC can call the rally whatever they want but it pretty much comes down to end of the month/first half of the year window dressing.  Money managers need to protect their gains or else their clients might wise up and pull their money out.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:58 | 3699673 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

You have the FED attempting to appease everyone.  We have had a taste of the coming disaster when and if the FED ever stops screwing around with what it has no business doing in the first place.

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:58 | 3699674 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

can china please fucking crash tonight? just let the banks go under tonight and create fucking widespread panic, 2000 points off dow tomm, fuckhead cramer, bitch maria bartawhateverthefuckhernameis,  and all the other fucking assholes will have the look on there faces of how shocked they r, it would be great.

 

next week is a short week because wed is a half day followed by no thursday due to july 4th. we need this crash tonight in china or i will be fucking pissed as fuck,

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