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The Golden (Sentiment) Rule: If It Isn’t Off The Chart Now, It Soon Will Be

Tyler Durden's picture


Remember: what is unsustainable, can never crash, or so those who can create virtually unlimited naked shorts out of thin air would like everyone to believe.

Gross exposure - new all time record shorts:


Net: lowest longs in a decade:


Comex Registered gold inventory: decade lows:


Total Comex gold inventory: lowest since 2008:


Two final ones, but without the charts:

JPMorgan total gold vault holdings: record low.

Bundesbank gold repatriation: ongoing.


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Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:57 | 3705068 Cdad
Cdad's picture


The sheer brilliance of the criminal syndicate known as Wall easy to read format.  

Now...overlay Netflix across them, a company losing buckets of money, and you have a complete work of art.  Perhaps, JP Morgan will send Germany an investment position in streaming movies...instead of the gold they are recalling.

lololololol...what a lemming hootinanny!  


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:01 | 3705111 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Whoo nelly! This crash is going to be BRUTAL!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:09 | 3705133 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Fuck these guys.  You can't fight the Fed but you can go down swinging.  

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:19 | 3705151 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I wonder how many ounces the guys back at the Fed are buying...

My guess is that they are filling their pockets with what little may remain in the vaults since Bernanke told them the Christmas bonus promised to be a little bit lighter this year.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:19 | 3705157 ACP
ACP's picture

I just go by the old saying: "Buy low, sell high."

It's reasonably low right now, I think.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:21 | 3705160 lineskis
lineskis's picture

Those shorties are needed for the next leg Up!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:12 | 3705266 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Hey Warren.. Paper burns.  That barbarous relic doesn't.  

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:38 | 3705330 ACP
ACP's picture

He knows what he's doing...classic case of a guy with a silver tongue who also talks out of both sides of his mouth.

He'll milk the last bit of juice out of the paper, then quietly rotate out when the time comes.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 07:26 | 3705754 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



+43 LOL!


Heh heh.....there's always that one guy.

When everyone else is running out of the's time for you to calmly walk in.

We gave some cotton candy to the gays and illegal aliens this week...but we didn't do a damn thing to slow the fiscal ride into hell....which is why you should own some real gold.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:23 | 3705892 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

This Whole Fucking Paper SMACKDOWN Sham Is Signed...


Barak Et AL ...

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 14:57 | 3706238 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but one should recognize that all paper promises are going to zero.  When fraud is the status quo and there is no rule of law, possession and a dependable tribe are key.  The earth is awash in paper fucking promises and liabilities, with realtively little real assets or collateral of real value.

Hedge accordingly.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:20 | 3705406 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I believe we have just entered into a that market phase where asset value is everything.  Furthermore, regarding precious metals, I suspect this next quarter won't be about inflation, but rather the threat of deflation per currencies.  As such, things that hold their value against that deflation will be sought.

All one need do is monitor the literal frenzy on the BlowHorn [CNBC] about how gold has been going down because inflation is nowhere in sight.  Wrong.

Buy physical metals.  Buy resource that they have been bludgeoned to death.  On that second count, forget earnings in the near term.  If you are skeptical on that second count, simply observe how ACI sold a tiny fraction of their assets this morning...and magically captured 57% of their reflected market cap in cash.  Those valuations are fubar.

Sell crap.  Sell momentum stocks [aka the S&P].  Sell Carl Ichan's Netflix.  Sell Amazon.  Sell Starbucks.  Sell consumerism.

And, of course, prepare for the fallout.



Sat, 06/29/2013 - 00:58 | 3705581 Taku
Sat, 06/29/2013 - 03:33 | 3705686 Lore
Lore's picture

The short position stands out as particularly bizarre in light of what is happening at street level.

There's a rumour popping up on gold bug discussion boards that JPM is being set up for some kind of implosion.  Is it actionable intel, or just fluff?

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 09:12 | 3705834 tango
tango's picture

I put as much faith in the rumor and conspiracies of gold forums as do pyramid power or healing geodes.  You ALWAYS hear this when gold is down (the FED's fault, Rothschilds, Jews, secret groups, blah blah) but never when it rises.  Strangely, those issues that still should matter are never discussed in Bull runs. 

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 12:25 | 3706045 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

You mean how when gold is going up, the prices in fiat matters, but when it's going down, it doesn't?

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 02:43 | 3707227 Lore
Lore's picture

It is hard to imagine JPM on the chopping block.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 09:27 | 3705848 tango
tango's picture

Cdad, we've been hearing this same thing since 1992 when Ross Perot preached the same thing would happen if our debt went to something like $5T.  Many refused to invest in this bull market because they were told it was "phony" or would collapse "soon".  So what did they do?  The worst absolute thing.  They sold stocks at their low and bought gold at $1500-$1900/oz and silver in the $40/oz range.  Now they've lost a good share of that money.  

No wonder so many folks are so angry out here!   I would be too if I'd followed the "financial" advice offered here and lost my shirt. Folks, get a good financial advisor who does not let ideology guide their investments.  Get one that emphasizes capital retention and has a strategy for down markets.  Do your research and select the appropriate one (I use one specializing in folks nearing retirement or having already retired). 

There will be a day of reckoning but not tomorrow.   As Tyler reminds us, the nature of investment products is to rise and fall.  Sadly it takes nearly a lifetime of experience and rough examples to learn that when things go up dramatically you take profits, when things decline below a certain percent you sell and when things are at their bleakest, you buy.  

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:12 | 3705888 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

The market is no longer fair. It is being run by machines trading in nanoseconds. It is being manipulated on all fronts; everything from LIBOR to fat fingers to unexplained flash crashes. The CFTC, time and time again, turns a blind eye to the most blatent of manipulative trades and allows massive naked shorting to exist unimpared within the gold and silver markets.

See, I used to be like you. I used to dilligently buy stocks every month for the long term, spread my risk around, the whole nine yards. I will no longer participate in a rigged casino...and that is exactly what the stock markets of the world have become.

On top of all that, even the very fiat currency in my wallet, that which I am supposed to work my balls off for, is being debased on a daily basis by some asshole who I never met, nor elected, yet who has the power to ruin
my fiscal safety simply by hitting CNTL-P.

I have turned to phyzz as a result of all the BS and have not regretted it at all. The faster I can convert this paper into phyzz, the better I feel...and I don't care what the current price is because I am not selling until the Great Reset is over.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 15:29 | 3706269 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Deflation" is a myth, stop using that bullshit progressive language.  No society/currency has collapsed/died because their purchasing power was too strong.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 00:45 | 3705577 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

It seems critical mass was reached once gold dropped below $1200...

That must have been everyone's BUY point.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 15:46 | 3706276 noless
noless's picture

Marketwatch ran an op ed yesterday advising people to buy bullion instead of etfs.

Sub 1000 most def. Swings.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 05:24 | 3705719 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

No charts for JP Morgan's conex ounces and the Bundesbank's Fed gold repatriation?

Try a photo instead...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:18 | 3705153 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Stand back and watch them implode on their own.


Maybe not in the next year, but certainly in the next 5-10.


Exponential math is a bitch.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:29 | 3705177 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I'm betting (literally and figuratively) that it's less than next year.   If I'm wrong I can wait, but it will suck that the dry powder is drying up faster than Bernanke's beard with one of those "vortex" hand-dryers in the WH.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:55 | 3705231 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

When she breaks it will likely be hard and fast... every bankster and hedge fund on the planet will want to double down on the implosion prior to the Great Inflation...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:09 | 3705392 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And they'll have to reinstall the paper towel dispenser at the WH.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 01:56 | 3705638 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Bernanke's got options... There's always the SUCK CUT...


Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:22 | 3705900 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

He is going to retire and write a book and promo it on CNBS...just like Greenspan before him.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:10 | 3705135 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

When you look up the dictionary definition of FUBAR you can see those same graphs...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:01 | 3705247 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Me thinks BuBa should hurry up or shut up with their gold transfer. That is, if they have the slightest inclination of not wanting to be left holding a bag of shit.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 09:59 | 3705877 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

It's a Bubble of epic proportions. Everyone will be asking how they missed this Gold Bubble after it pops and they can't buy physical Gold with Dollars (or any other fiat currency for that matter). Gold to Infinity Bitchez! 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:15 | 3705271 Midasking
Midasking's picture

It is getting deeper and deeper down on Wall St.  If you like liberty you might like this 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:35 | 3705435 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

Methinks that you ALL are taking crazy pills.

Why is that you say?

Because the Fed own everything! In case you dumbasses weren't watching, the Fed has been BUYING.....MASSIVELY! All you dumbasses have been thinking that the FED, et al have been SELLING, when the bankers have been BUYING. Did you all forget that when things get serious, you have to lie.

Could it not be possible that the info that the bankers have been publishing were INTENTIONALLY inaccurate. I think the KGB guys would call it MASKAROVA. A masquerade!

Sun Tzu - show a strength as a weakness and a weakness as a strength. What better way to do this when working with the Intelligence Community.

Business is warfare!!!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:55 | 3705461 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And warfare is just business.  Nothing personal.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 01:59 | 3705640 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Los del Rio would call it a Macarena...

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 01:43 | 3705625 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

And what has the Fed been buying?  Crap mortgage backed securities that the banks unloaded because they were worth 0.  T-Bills - backed by what again?   WHat happens when the Federal Government can't float any more debt?  WHAT pays off those T-Bills?    Is the Fed going to foreclose on the Federal Government?  Good luck with that.  There's a reason the Chinese have been trading paper denominated in $US for TANGIBLE asstets like Australian mining companies, oil contracrts with the Stans and farmland in Africa.....

The Fed owns PAPER - nothing more.  And if you think that paper is really worth something.....  

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 12:16 | 3706040 jcaz
jcaz's picture

What- EXACTLY- do you think the Fed "owns"?   It's PAPER...

"Methinks"?    Is Bill Shakespeare giving out financial advice now?  I'll wait until CP3O comes out with his own blog, thanks......

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 00:27 | 3705567 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

If the fed wants gold to crash for real, all it has to do is bribe people (with real interest) to buy bonds.

That won't happen. 

So back up the truck, and thank the fed for the buying opportunity.

BTW, don't use margin or futures.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 02:26 | 3705654 Newager23
Newager23's picture

I follow gold and silver prices every day and have for about a decade. I've been following this correction that began in September 2011 very closely. I think we may have finally found a bottom this week. The HUI has had a nice bounce off of its lows and so did silver today. If we get further strength next week, then we could finally be heading higher.

Now is probably the time to buy GDXJ before it takes off. This is the safest investment for mining stocks. SIL is another one that I like for low risk / high return. These are ETFs so they are not going anywhere. 

You could also look at some of the mid-tier producers that look like 10 baggers. And gold mutual funds are looking very attractive at these valuations. If you get in now on a mutual fund such as the Franklin Templeton Class A Gold fund, you could get some huge dividends down the road.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 03:43 | 3705689 Lore
Lore's picture

Re: "These are ETFs so they are not going anywhere."

Solid as a rock. Yeah baby, Yeah!

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:03 | 3705880 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The only bottom to be found in Paper Gold is ZERO which it is about to find. Physical Gold will soon be infinite in terms of Dollars. 

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 05:44 | 3705723 cpzimmon
cpzimmon's picture

I really want to believe this Cdad. But one thing that I've learned throughout the past couple of months is that the guberment can do anything that they want; including taking gold down to zero if they want. Thankfully, I don't even think a muppet would believe it. Well, I guess I'm not so sure of that.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 16:29 | 3706335 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Well, gold isn't the only asset that is artificially priced, but tis the only one continuously and openly suppressed , so ask yourself, what is it actually worth? If all over the world peeps and banks are buying like dope heads and the cost to produce has moved above the set value for most miners, while world-wide fiat print storm neverbeforeseen picks up velocity...well you get my drift. If your horizon is at least 2 years, well, you know where a chunk of tour money has to be.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 11:21 | 3705975 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

lemming hootinanny. brilliant. 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:51 | 3705069 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

bwahahahahahaha!  Take that papermunchers!  

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:57 | 3705088 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Did you see that spiked in Boston after the Cup?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:19 | 3705155 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture




Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:53 | 3705073 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

all rigged!!!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:55 | 3705078 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

When the tide goes out, you can see who is wearing shorts.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:30 | 3705427 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

When the tide goes out, you can see who shit themselves...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:57 | 3705081 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Fuck You (Time Magazine's Person of the Year 2009)!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:57 | 3705092 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Also a person of interest for our friends at the NSA.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:11 | 3705138 knukles
knukles's picture

Ah, the old Hooveresque we've got files on you, sweetie...



Who was it bought J Edgar's old stilettos? 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:30 | 3705179 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Geithner.  You don't get ears like that unless someone's pulling on them.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:18 | 3705281 jon dough
jon dough's picture

Ca-ching, ring it up LTER, +1

(Nice line, K...)

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:02 | 3705375 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Great humor for a Friday night, pleased to be here at Club ZH!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:44 | 3705450 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

The great garbage smell says:

"Make sure that you scratch behind your ears"!!!!!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:19 | 3705496 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I recommend the swordfish!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:18 | 3705490 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

You're killing it tonight LTER.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:56 | 3705083 Stanley Kubrick
Stanley Kubrick's picture

Since cashing out enough PM's a couple of months ago to pay off my car lease, I've been suprised to see that it might have turned out to be the cheapest car I've ever bought.

These charts, however, confirm my original suspicions - it'll be the most expensive vehicle I've ever bought.

Looks like a tsunami's coming - the tide's all the way out.


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:21 | 3705162 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

again "the thing about the future is that it's uncertain." having said that the meaning of the last six weeks to me is clearly this: this is BEARISH on gold if true. up until this time the ten million man Army was safe esconsed in the USA while all those commodities were deflating and housing chugging along at a nice clip. banks making billions, revenues on the upswing, "too good to be true" indeed. everyone bitching about no income again so "time to go full on Moby Dick" using the Fed as the weapon of choice. well..."here comes your Great White Whale" Captain Ahab!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 19:57 | 3705086 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Assuming the above COMEX figures are legit, hey, let 'er rip....

But it took balls of steel to ride this one out...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:00 | 3705101 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Ben always said there is a metallic taste in his beard after.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:05 | 3705883 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

One of my Balls is Gold and the other is Silver.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:05 | 3705093 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

I'm convinced the banksters at GS and JPM who touted Gold $2000 at the beginning of the year, only to reverse their call and make billions shorting it, are driving it down to buy it back on the cheap. This is a concerted effort with the financial "media" acting as cheerleaders hailing the end of the Gold "bubble". Of course the Fed loves this as Gold isn't making their fiat look as bad. The thing that REALLY pisses me off is that these same bastards will make billions again when they run the paper price back up.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:16 | 3705403 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

I don't know but I've been told, it's hard to run with the weight of Gold.

Other times I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of Lead.

One way or another this darkness got to give ....

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:18 | 3705491 stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

one man gathers what another man spills

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:33 | 3705431 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

i was going to make a similar remark until i accidentally saw your comment.....this is absolutely the case - the bullion banks are net very long gold....they are about to make billions upon untold will emphatically sky rocket this fall....there is so much more that americans do not know about in the currency realm which is coming to these shores....and it will entail martial law - boston was the "template."

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 03:22 | 3705682 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture nigger Banksters? Nobody saw this coming.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 01:49 | 3705631 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

WHAT are they going to 'buy back' ?   Who is selling physical at these prices?

At best they're cashing out of GLD and sending the physical into their supersecret vaults (well, what's left over after settling all the massive buys on their short sales)  BUT I'll bet it;s more likely that they plan on defaulting and settling in cash at the very lowest possible price for the last move on the board.  At the point whan they've driven down the paper price as low as possible there won't be ANY physical available for sale at any price.

You're screwed at  that point if you thought you owned gold or bought futures contracts and tried to take delivery.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:03 | 3705102 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture



Au Canada.



Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:01 | 3705109 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Well if the physical demand continues - sooner or later those shorts are going to get ROASTED!


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:18 | 3705154 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

proof to me that this is right.
I started to buy silver 5 years ago because of the so called shortages.
I've not seen a shortage yet even with recordhigh demand.
the only shortage is a coin production shortage for certain brands because of demand. not a shortage of the metal.

I'm feel like I've been conned. Same for gold, I don't see a shortage and supply is just crazy right now! I see private sales that blow my mind! I underestimated how much gold and silver people own. fuck that 1%, it's more like 1 in 10 people who have gold and silver. even more gold than silver.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:37 | 3705195 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture



Stand your ground.

You will be richly rewarded.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:51 | 3705354 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Sudden Debt!  Divine Wind is right!  Stand your ground, holders ofpohysical will win when this rigged game blows up.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:55 | 3705363 Hulk
Hulk's picture

People here who didn't ride out 2007/2008 are going to be shocked at just how fast Au turns around and shoots up...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:00 | 3705373 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

After it goes down to FOFOA's sort-of prediction to $400 (or wherever we bottom out with paper gold).  But, yes, when the chip stack falls, zoooooooom!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:10 | 3705394 Hulk
Hulk's picture

There continue to be record amounts of Au flowing into the East, almost 600 tons in the last week alone.

No way it ever sees $400, its just not physically possible. We have a real fucking problem here in the West, it kills me to

see our wealth drained away this fast, but thats how corrupt systems  destroy themselves ...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:18 | 3705404 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have to agree with Hulk. Somewhere between here and $1000 I imagine we see mines just going down. once that supply is gone you are left with above ground stock. At that point any scramble for PM's cause prices to skyrocket. Or, it turns out that we were had and everyone dumps everything in a mad scramble for dollars, or apples, or paper clips or whatever the hell people percieve as a store of wealth.

I have been stacking paper clips like hell at these prices.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:22 | 3705411 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Yep. Everybody just relax, keep dollar cost averaging in and wait.  The Onus is now on the Fed and the bullion banks.

I wouldn't want to be in their shoes at this point, it must be a real gut buster for them...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:28 | 3705424 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

paper clips.

No one saw it coming.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:34 | 3705433 Hulk
Hulk's picture

In the depression, my friends dad made a killing with Bobby Pins !!! No shit...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:41 | 3705443 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Hulk...It's me, Wally...your friends Dad.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:18 | 3705492 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Posters from the ever after, cool !!!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:05 | 3705469 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Shit, I was long Red Staplers.

Gonna have to fucking burn this place to the ground.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 21:48 | 3706889 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Nice Office Space reference

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:17 | 3705457 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

It has been estimated that all the gold mined by the end of 2011 totalled 171,300 tonnes.[1] At a price of US$1500 per troy ounce, reached on 12 April 2013, one tonne of gold has a value of approximately US$48.2 million. The total value of all gold ever mined would exceed US$8.2 trillion at that valuation.[note 1]

Let's see now... the total value of all the gold ever mined is $8.2T at $1.5K per oz... so all of the World's gold today at todays price of $1230 is worth $6.7T. At $1,000 the value is $5.5T and at $500 it is $2.7T.

Now let's see... Global GDP is $70T per year, total global financial assets are $200T and debts are $120T or so... add to that around $700T in potentially toxic derivatives and assorted weapons of mass financial destruction combined with desperate central bank non-stop printing operations in a hopeless attempt to resurrect a dead consumption based economy... then multiply that by Europe, Japan and China... and you have yourself the perfect recipe for the hard Baumgartnering of currencies as the herds get restless ...

But where? where will the smart money flee?... hmmm...


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:20 | 3705498 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Using Math is going to get you on a list ZerOhead !!!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:46 | 3705452 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

I really think the 21st century will belong to China and India. But who really knows? The unforeseen and unintended consequences can really bite you in the ass at exactly the wrong time.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 01:03 | 3705588 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"People here who didn't ride out 2007/2008 are going to be shocked at just how fast Au turns around and shoots up..."

My guess is that its going to take a while. Especially if there is global fear of deflation, if the China bubble blows up this summer or before the end of the year (although I think China will print a lot to avoid this). There is also the laws in India that are now restricting gold imports.


Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:21 | 3705897 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Good observations in general.  Just as we watched Japan closely for parallels in our own economic devolution, we should watch countries like India where gold is appreciated and understood to see how the U. S. shall treat the pretty lady.  Laws will be enacted, and unlike laws concerning fraud, collusion, and outright theft (e.g., rehypothecation), the golden rules will be enforced!  THE RULE of LAW will finally be upheld -- for those whom it benefits the most.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:05 | 3705251 Jimbodude
Jimbodude's picture

Try Perth Mint. They have no silver bullion for sale and can't even give an estimated lead time. It's been like that for months. I bought gold at 1420 an ounce a few weeks back thinking it was the low. It turned out it wasn't. I haven't lost anything though. Last time I looked at my 10oz cast ingot, it was still the same size and weight as it was two weeks ago. I bought to hold for at least 5 years. I'll only be worried if it is worth less then.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 00:43 | 3705575 kito
kito's picture

i bet your ignot lost an atom........................................

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 03:55 | 3705692 Rory_Breaker
Rory_Breaker's picture

Just ultrsound it for tungsten, other wise you're good.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:07 | 3705254 trip kitchen
trip kitchen's picture

Hang in there SD.

It may seem like 1 in 10 own gold, but I doubt that's the case.   There was a study done that showed ideas or beliefs of a given macro population don't propagate very much when less than 10% of the society realizes it,  but at 10% the idea 'catches on' and then spreads exponentially. 

I've been a silverbug since '07, lived thru the 2008 massacre, and will live thru this too  Personally, I'm not fishing my stack out of the river until the 'cash for gold' places turn into 'gold for cash' stores.  Prob a few years away yet, but then I'm out.  

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:54 | 3705358 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

It's probably closer to 1 in 25 (usa) that owns physical (other than jewelry).

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:58 | 3705368 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have heard 1% and 3% both at various times, I don't know, but I doubt that 4% own non-jewelry gold...

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 02:05 | 3705644 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The lower income classes own jewelry and the VERY wealthy own bullion (recent news story about a mansion being robbed of gold and silver bars) but the middle ground.......   it's not even on their radar.  I know ONE person whos buying gold (of note, a high ranking cop) and TWO people buying silver.  A further dozen own paper gold and silver or mining shares (IF they haven't dumped them by now).   Odds are if you mentioned gold to anyone - even when it was climbing to $1900 - the response would be about SELLING it 'while the price is good'.   Methinks the sheep have been shorn - and if they haven't willingly sold by now a graeat effort is on to convince them to do so.   Sad because few people will have ANYTHING of value to sell if things really crash.  Think of the photos i 1930 of the guy trying to sell a Packard for a fraction of its original price....   you had mansions around here DEMOLISHED when they couldn't be sold in an effort to cut the property taxes so they could hold onto the land.


Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:27 | 3705904 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

One runs into an aficionado of metals from time to time, so I would take any "statistics" on percentage of the population as owners with a grain of salt.   While having my recent colonoscopy (un-sedated) I chatted with the GI doc and when he found out what I do, the discussion turned to silver pricing.  Seems that he is an accumulator from way back.  I told him to just hang in there.  There are no silver or gold "clubs" as such so that folks can get together and chat about their hoards and concealment techniques, so any statistics of ownership are suspect.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:15 | 3705399 Black Swan 9
Black Swan 9's picture

The 100th Monkey Theory, as explained by Michael Ruppert:

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:41 | 3705446 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Michael Ruppert - amazing guy.  Amazing story.  Former LA narcotics PD who just refused to play along re agency drug flights.  A story reporter Gary Webb wound up dieing over ... when he suicided himself with two bullets to the head.

I'm happy to see in the video Ruppert looks so good after recovering from his poisoning.

He kind of lost it over Obummer I now remember.  All I can say about that is they did everything they could think of to play with this mind, including attempting murder.

Great to see he's doing so well.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 00:46 | 3705578 kito
kito's picture

i watched that documentary by ruppert..........i came away with an entirely different opinion.....hes full of neurotic.....imaginative................and is a peak oil lunatic.....................just how i see it.............................

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 07:23 | 3705757 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

"peak oil lunatic"

Exactly.  The guy is completely full of crap.  The only thing we have a shortage in is physical silver because these lunatics won't let the price rise.  Ruppert is a watermelon, green on the outside, red on the inside.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 07:59 | 3705778 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

I suppose the reason we are steam cleaning sand for bitumen is because it is the better option.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:31 | 3705911 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Expect strict controls on the used oil from oil changes, and the rags used to wipe up with.  That's cheaper to re-refine than tar sands.  I remember back in the 70s we used to get the stuff from gas stations in quart glass bottles with the handy pour spout.  You had to put the oil in at the station and give them back the bottle.  It was 10 cents a quart.  Of course, the old Ford Fairlane used a couple of quarts a week, so....

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:31 | 3705910 JacktheTab
JacktheTab's picture


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:43 | 3705449 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

Reactions, equal and opposite...
As explained by Sir Isaac Newton

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:19 | 3705495 trip kitchen
trip kitchen's picture

Thanks Swan.  I posted a dead link, but yeah, thats the gist.  I first read Lawrence Blairs book " Rhythms of Vision" over 25 years ago.  Had a big impact on my thought process, then and now.

Bread and circuses not withstanding, when society finally crosses the rubicon of knowledge regarding what really is a safe store of value, the relatively small physical PM markets are going to appear very tiny indeed to the masses trying to acquire them.



Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:28 | 3705306 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You have heard of the "Blood in the streets" quote I assume?

I don't care if it goes to $33/oz., it isn't in the casino or a bankers' confiscatory stability levy bail-in "account".  This is war, not chess.  Kill or be killed.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:35 | 3705325 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Wait until the mines start shutting down.  That is when the shortage will get severe enough to cause an industrial panic.

And there WERE shortages five years ago.  Then prices rose, and metal came back onto the market.  There are limited shortages right now.  Almost no used silver to be had (witness huge premiums on junks silver).  The only reason we have bullion available now is the miners.  When they start shutting down, it will be game over.  Only a dramatic price rise can stop that, as it did in 2009.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:57 | 3705364 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hey, tmosley, nice exchanging views with you again.  I would agree with you re silver, a quick shortage of silver could yank it into the stratosphere because silver is used, and has more precarious supplies.

Not so, IMO, with gold.  ALL the mines could get shut down, and it would only dent the price psychologically...   There is such a stock:flow of Au that it will be not only mines shutting down, but buying popularity going up and, perhaps most importantly, big sellers declining to sell their physical...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:43 | 3705527 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I would normally agree, DoChen, but I read something that made me question that recently.  The claim was that 2/3rds of gold that changed hands (ex central banks and other large off-books buyers) last year was from mine production, while only 1/3rd was from gold recycling.  As such, a dwindling mine supply would have a major effect on the price, as it would force buyers to bid until dishoarding is acheived, much the same as silver, though to what I expect will be a lesser degree.

Come to think of it, I need to include that little bit of data in my GSR trade placements.  

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 04:41 | 3705704 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

They're shutting down the main gold mine here 2 years earlyier than planned due to the lower gold price. The first of many I'm sure.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:18 | 3705894 cbaba
cbaba's picture

You cannot estimate gold price by mine production, it has very little impact on price since the gold is not like other commodities which are consumed, gold is mainly hoarded so there is a huge existing stock, that stock governs the price, even if the mine production stops for 10 years it may have a negligible effect.

Please do not estimate from this or that, there is no clear sign of estimating gold price.

People buy and then they need cash so sell some of it again. everybody buying will sell at some point, but when, nobody knows. its a very complex human behavior and best thing to do is buy and hold. Eventually it will explode to the roof but do not try to estimate the timing.

Here is the best article i have seen about gold price formation :



Sun, 06/30/2013 - 00:01 | 3707094 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I liked the referenced article.  Thanks muchly....

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:53 | 3705359 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Of course there is big pool of gold and silver out there. It's been money for humans for ever. It all didn't just dissapear and go away with the coin act of 1964 or the closing of the gold window in 1972...This is actually good because you need enough to circulate to the people for an alternative money. The more people the more vested interest for it to be the superior money.  A gold/silver coin isn't supposed to be a Da Vinci Painting. On the other hand compare the gold and silver supply to the hordes of cash and M2 money supply in the banking system. It's pretty dam rare. Yeah the paper shit gives you a claim on goods in the supply chain today which is nice but who's to say gold and silver won't need to be re-monitized when the confidence is lost. Even if it's not in our lifetime's there's a billion people who live in other countries who want the stuff for all kinds of reasons.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 07:30 | 3705762 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

"Of course there is big pool of gold and silver out there"

You are right about gold but wrong about silver.  The U.S. stockpile ran out in 2006 and silver is being tossed into landfills at an increasing rate.  There are virtually no primary silver mines left because it's more profitable to mine base metals.  Central banks have tons of gold.  None of them have any silver.  You can't have mine for any dollar price.

Silver For The People

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:22 | 3705408 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

Yeah. Don't buy into the supply shortage B.S. for now. I've been hearing that for years too and it's just crap. We'll know when supply is out. The Comex bankster criminals have done alot of damage to Joe Sixpacks psyche. Most of them don't own physical anyway but they were shaken out of GLD and SLV. Never to return. It won't matter, because the institutions and banksters have robbed the GLD of its' gold and they are pocketing the real stuff and repaying Germany with cheap gold.

At the end of they day, the criminals will take prices higher and make themselves and diehard physical holders wealthy. I went thru 2008 and this has been far worse, this has taken "balls of steel" like nothing else. We are close to seeing the lid blow off. I hope the numbers provided in this article are real, I don't trust anything anymore, but it feels right.



Sat, 06/29/2013 - 07:48 | 3705767 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

This correction is only slightly worse in percentage terms than 2008.  The only reason it takes "balls of steel" is because back then the entire financial system was collapsing, so you could see the paper burning before your eyes.  It's not hard to hold on to real money when counterparties are getting vaporized right and left.  They don't plan to do it the same this time, think bail-ins.

Also, the silver shortage was very acute for months, and silver eagles on Ebay never went below 16 bucks.  You were lucky to get them for under that anywhere else either.  Even when silver hit 18.25 the other day, most of my stack was trading north of 50 bucks an ounce and some north of 100.  Stack the smack and don't look back.  Long and strong.  No fear.  Perth Mint baby.

Silver For The People

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 16:26 | 3706313 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

"I'm feel like I've been conned."


And then I looked in the mirror, and realized, that no one forced me to buy Gold. So I asked myself, why did I buy it? When I realized the answer, I smiled and slept like a baby.


It comes down to what you believe in.


Do you know why Marc Faber keeps a picture of Ben Bernanke on the wall in his bathroom? It's so that whenever he's in the bathroom and has thoughts of selling his Gold, that picture reminds him of why he bought it in the first place.


Have you taken the proper amount of time studying the question, "what is money?" So that you feel comfortable answering the question. The only one you owe an answer to is yourself.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:18 | 3705284 Diablo
Diablo's picture

physical demand? what physical demand? AGE sales are DOWN 80% from April levels. ASE sales are DOWN 20% from April levels.


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:05 | 3705382 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

yes, and april was 3x the volume than previous months, is pretty normal we are down from that...


speaking of wholesalers volumes and premiums:



Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:09 | 3705390 Diablo
Diablo's picture

Junes sales even below feb and mar sales.


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:47 | 3705532 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I heard that the June sales figures only included the first two weeks, and assumed no sales for the rest of the month.  

Don't know if that is true or not, though.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 00:09 | 3705555 Diablo
Diablo's picture

as per their site theyre updated every day by 5pm est.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 09:10 | 3705833 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Thanks for the information.  I notice, however, that I am confused.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 18:59 | 3706587 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

Us Mint is not the only seller boo boo...they actually reduced allocation of ASE 50% or more in some cases cause they don't have enough silver !!!LMAO

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 19:01 | 3706593 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

month per month 2012vs 2013 double so far or just about the first 5 months, posed to be record year at 45-50M oz

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 01:43 | 3705624 Bluebear
Bluebear's picture

Presumes the amount available for sale...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:02 | 3705114 sysin3
sysin3's picture

Thou shalt not short in the hole.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:04 | 3705115 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Golf clap.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:08 | 3705131 GS-DickinDaMuppets
GS-DickinDaMuppets's picture

Shorts or NO SHORTS, this manipulation, by whoever is doing it, is scaring the dog poo out of me - WTF !


GS-DickingDaMuppets, - Doin' God's work 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:13 | 3705140 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

there's a problem with gold and silver I never thout of untill now.

when I speak about our future economic state of the country, people always say "you see the future to dark, you must be wrong"
Fuck that, but gold and silver need to go mainstream to reach higher price levels and with that kind of attitude it never will.
And a attitude is somebody everybody wants to change fast but is something that is very difficult and slow to change.
This current drop will cause years of fear for the common people to get into silver and gold.
Silver and gold are a good longterm investment for sure but longterm is now becomming very longterm like in 10 to 15 years from now.forget a 1 to 2 year price explosion en more like a pensionplan if you're younger than 40.
I got a shitload of silver and a nice stash of gold but now I'm halting further purchases and cash is king untill I see a compromise to print all out.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:50 | 3705197 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture and silver need to go mainstream to reach higher price levels and with that kind of attitude it never will.
And a attitude is somebody everybody wants to change fast but is something that is very difficult and slow to change.
This current drop will cause years of fear for the common people to get into silver and gold...


You have put your finger on part of the problem for PM prices right there. People in China and India may be buying but for prices to really take off would require people in the usa to not only buy coins but also jewelry like crazy and I just don't see that happening. They are happier with a light ass 10K chain around their neck and an iphone in their purse than they ever would be stashing boring old 24K gold coins.

edit: I didn't read what you wrote below until after I wrote the above comment. Sorry to read that, truly.


Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:53 | 3705229 Scro
Scro's picture

Most of the world is not fooled by the paper manipulation of PM's, only the West.

"This current drop will cause years of fear for the common people to get into silver and gold."

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:13 | 3705267 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

The populations of India, China, most of Asia, and Russia see Gold as a store of value. If you take into account the population dynamics of India (1.2 billion) and China (1.4 billion), I think the fuse has already been lit. We just have to be a little patient for the fireworks. IMHO its obvious the Comex is going to default and TPTB want the lowest price possible to declare a Force Majeure, and to be simultaneously positioned long in Gold and Silver. Isn't that what we are seeing? We're on the final countdown IMHO.

The U.S., Europe and Western nations as a whole are declining. Every time I go out to the store, I feel like the U.S. has been invaded by zombies. Real zombies. For comparison sake the U.S. only has 315 million people. How many of those are actually productive? 

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:39 | 3705921 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

How many of those are actually productive?

Around 26 by my last count.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 21:31 | 3705316 Mrs. Haggy
Mrs. Haggy's picture

There's nothing wrong with gold and silver being a long term investment.  If you are in PMs for a "1 to 2 year price explosion", you are in for the wrong reason.  You earlier stated that you've been buying PMs for the past five years.  Now that prices are dropping you are going to stop buying?  This sounds like a buy high strategy.  I know it's hard to make yourself buy things that are dropping in value, but it's the way to go.  A few years ago Silver kept bouncing between 13 and 20 dollars.  It's hard to make yourself buy at 13-15 dollars after you've watched it slide from over $20.  I made myself buy (or at least bought more heavily) when low and lightened up when high.  I actaully just started buying gold again.  I haven't touched it since the last time it was at $1200.  For me, PMs are about preserving wealth and not reaping savage gains over short periods of time.  Keep watching the charts my friend, you will start to see patterns and will have an idea of the peaks and valleys at least on a small scale.  For the most part I'm always buying silver. I figure at least that way I'm buying at the highs and the lows and it should all average out in the end.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 22:27 | 3705421 Blano
Blano's picture

I kept telling myself I had to learn to buy when there was blood in the streets.  Maybe that's the case now for gold/silver. 

Thus, I have decided that regardless of my generally meager savings and tenuous job currently, that I'm a buyer all the way down.  So far, I've held to it.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:38 | 3705520 Mrs. Haggy
Mrs. Haggy's picture

I've been buying for about nine years now.  My first purchase was 30 ounces of silver at $8.50 per ounce.  It was easy to keep buying as it steadily kept rising.  It almost hit $20 when there was a reversal.  Silver then slid pretty quickly down to about $12.  It was so hard to justify buying at that point.  I still did buy a little and I felt like I was lying to myself that it would turn upwards again.  To my delight it headed back up to just over $20.  Then another reversal.  Again it was hard to make myself buy, but I decided to make a big purchase (for me) at about $13.  I got lucky and hit it right before it headed back up.  Ever since then I've been fully comfortable buying in the skids.  Look at it this way: You're not exactly buying stock in Enron.  Gold/Silver has held value for thousands of years.  The odds are that we won't see it go away in our meager 40 or so years of buying.  It will bounce up and down and you'll inevitably feel a lot smarter if you bought more during the downs.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 08:12 | 3705782 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

You've been buying for 9 years and the lowest price you got was $8.50 an ounce?  I remember monster boxes of Eagles for 2500 bucks, or 5 bucks a coin for years and years.  But I've been stackin' since 1997.

Current Spot Prices For 
Saturday, June 2, 2001 Change From Previous Day Gold $266.80 +.00 Silver $4.41 +.00 Platinum $589.00 +.00
Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:01 | 3705462 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

..."This current drop will cause years of fear for the common people to get into silver and gold."...

You give WAY too much credit to common people. You think a single fucking soul you came in contact with today on the street has a fucking clue about metal markets? You think common people are the ones MSM is trying to demoralize in their gold/silver holdings?

The psy op is for YOU, not the muppets. The muppets don't have a pot to piss in at this point. They want to shake your ass out of the tree.

Cruze the shitty end of town this weekend. Look at all the strip mall places sucking up every ounce of scrap gold and ghetto grills on the cheap so they can pay rent another month. These places are EVERYWHERE and it is rolling in. Easier to harvest it as a result of desperation than dig it out of a hole.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 23:23 | 3705502 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"This current drop will cause years of fear for the common people to get into silver and gold."

Right, like the housing bubble and subsequent collapse taught people "Whatever happens, I'll never pay a ridiculous price for a house in SoCal again."

And tiny little boxes in parts of LA are selling for $600k, again.

The mass of people never learn from anything because their choices are emotional, not cognitive. They graze with the herd, and run when the herd runs.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 01:19 | 3705604 SPAREPARTS
SPAREPARTS's picture

I am with you Sd, I am loaded in terms of % in PM related, I got to hold I could have more wrong.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 02:22 | 3705648 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You're making a mistake. "You won't 'see' anything". there's never anything to see. You can buy Silver now; the price is good enough. You won't be able to interpret any news accurately; vis a vis prices. The price chart itself is all you get. It's probably cheap enough now. don;t worry about the opinion of your friends and people on the street; they don't count; they're just there to take losses. Worry about the opinion of Marc Faber who has anounced that he will respond to 1200$ gold by buying more; and to $1100 dollar gold by buying more again. He made all his money trading major markets. The end result is inevitable.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 10:52 | 3705940 Pareto
Pareto's picture

gold and silver need to go mainstream.  i go to the local dealer, place is packed.  i see the chinese lined up in crowd gates for a mile, the indians, everybody.  same.  seems like pretty mainstream fucking people to me.

Sat, 06/29/2013 - 15:13 | 3706255 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Sudden Debt,

You say "This current drop will cause years of fear for the common people to get into silver and gold", but if it is true that a market meltdown  causes people to shun an asset for years then ask yourself this:

If a market meltdown causes investors to shun an asset class for years, then why after just a 2-3 years did people return to real estate and stocks?  

People have short memories!  I should know since I invented the piano key necktie!

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 00:14 | 3707103 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

SD, I think the bankster criminalistas will be buying so much that the pop will be noticed by the scared sheep. 


This will not happen quietly.  And really the capitalist world requires losers to make the winners feel virtuous.  Any reason to force this differentiation is A OK with them.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:16 | 3705147 Fuku Ben
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