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Is This The Peak For Confidence?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Given surging mortgage rates, fading macro data, a Fed that perhaps is not so prone to support people's 401(k)s, we wonder, just as we have seen in the prior two cycle, whether the gains in confidence (based on future hope and expectations more than current situations) may have peaked. With yet another lower low and lower high, it seems the easy-money path to creating animal spirits is suffering an epochal series of diminishing returns.

 

 

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Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:19 | 3703187 20834A
20834A's picture

I'm confident that I will be poorer in the coming years!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:23 | 3703204 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Party like it's 1999.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:24 | 3703208 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

not about consumption.  it's productivity

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:31 | 3703230 screw face
screw face's picture

Spook Nation....how's that work'en out fur'ya......

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:39 | 3703261 CH1
CH1's picture

What matters is Peak Obedience.

So long as everyone obeys the overlords, why should they ever change anything?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:43 | 3703273 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Returns have seriously diminished...they now seek to control minimum wage workers? Big deal... the 'nobles' are about to experience a serious pinch themselves. That's what this is ALL about...a system of slavery which has failed, and the desperate attempts to keep it alive are about over.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:26 | 3703393 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Las Vegas housing market getting Monkeyhammered; 40,000 empty houses:

 

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/las-vegas-real-estate-market-number-o...

 

 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 13:18 | 3703751 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Party like it's 1999.

After looking at this chart.....it looks like Prince was actually correct in 1984.  But instead of nuclear destruction it turned out our destruction came from weapons of mass financialization.


"Party over, OOPS, out of time."

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:32 | 3703240 Midasking
Midasking's picture

If we could get a few more million on food stamps to get that stimulus quickly to main st I bet we would have a lot more confidence. http://tinyurl.com/qhxpkyn

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:19 | 3703188 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I'm confident that I ain't buying jack shit for the rest of the year.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:27 | 3703221 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

What? No more gold or silver?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:27 | 3703222 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm confident that I will be buying a bottle of Jack and taking a shit this year.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:36 | 3703249 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

And I will name mine Greenspam and the Bernank (alternately), and I aint talking about the bottle of Jack.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 13:14 | 3703737 tango
tango's picture

I will be buying "things" (just bought another farm) that could be useful.  My wife and I are from families of savers and when hard times hit, that's when we buy.  Services (tree cutting, house painting, pool work, vacations, etc) drop dramatically in price.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:19 | 3703189 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I'll inflate your confidence if you'll inflate mine

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:20 | 3703193 nickels
nickels's picture

Pride goeth before destruction.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:20 | 3703194 nmewn
nmewn's picture

The beatings will continue until the morale improves.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:14 | 3703338 screw face
screw face's picture

....or  until the 'bigboys' get their machines ready............

 

 

for i and i...... Woooh Jah..

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:21 | 3703196 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Managing the decline all the way down to fourth world status. Soon people will be eating road kill and liking it.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:58 | 3703313 centerline
centerline's picture

tip:  stock up on spices and bbq sauce.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:23 | 3703374 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

And shovels.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:33 | 3703417 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nice.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:21 | 3703200 Blazed
Blazed's picture

Is that a trend?

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:52 | 3703664 kill switch
kill switch's picture

According to Celente

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:22 | 3703201 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

If we are at the peak, shouldn't there follow sort of a 'plateau' for some time? ;-)

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:26 | 3703213 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I've never understood why I should care about consumer confidence. I mean I get the short term impact of the aggregate group of idiots (consumers) thinking that things might get better, or worse, or something and the impact that might make on their willingness to take on more debt, again, in the short term... But man what a dumb forking number to consider. The fact that it's reported on and the way it's stressed should tell us everything we need to know about the fake economy.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:10 | 3703522 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

It's a meter to reflect the effectiveness of the MSM propaganda machine......

 

 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:27 | 3703225 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We were confident while Ben promised we wouldn't need jobs or a real economy. As long as he kept house prices and stocks moving up and up we could borrow our way to being rich. Now he's talking about taking it all away

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:27 | 3703226 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

call me when we hit peak bullshit.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:28 | 3703229 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Brrrrinnng..brinngggg....hello Fonz..we are there.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:37 | 3703252 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito bought gold Doc, if he bottom ticked it I will be in awe.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:41 | 3703265 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You're kidding me? I thought for sure our resident deflationist was waiting until it hits zero.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:24 | 3703381 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Just when I thought it couldn't get any deeper, I was forced to take a taste.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:28 | 3703227 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The fed will announce a new larger round of QE. Krugman's do or die plan.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:33 | 3703245 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And that would be the spark which Hindenbergs the entire thing.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:29 | 3703233 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I'm confident that although JPM is near default on its COMEX gold accounts, it stood for delivery of 1.7 million ounces of silver yesterday, and that silver is outperforming gold on a relative basis lately, and that I find these developments interesting.

http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.pdf

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:32 | 3703239 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

OT but someone just bought a fucking boat load of gold and silver...  look at apmex charts ahead of marketwatch...

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:35 | 3703248 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Something's all fucked up with the gold price at the site I follow it on - the lines are all pointing the wrong way.  Unless maybe a bunch of old prewar jews are needing to pick some up to sew into their clothes.  Can somebody check with Charlie Munger on that?  He seems to be an 'in the know' guy.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:32 | 3703241 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Soon the entire US will look like Detroit, and DOW will probly be 20,000!

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:36 | 3703251 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

99.999 % will look like Detroit - medieval hovels surrounding newly built castles for the new nobility.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:40 | 3703264 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There's nothing new about this though, it's just the lastest slavery system on it's last legs desperatey trying to keep it going for themselves because the 'nobles' have no way to survive otherwise. Same crap as in the first century, just new slavery done thru interest rates and Corporate Conglomerate control. It's sputtering out though.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:49 | 3703291 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

True, new methods, old game.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:37 | 3703253 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I was confident till I wasn't

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:39 | 3703260 Lilguy
Lilguy's picture

"...the peak of confidence?"

I'm even MORE confident now that the economy, as I have been for some time, that the economy is going to hell in a handbasket.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:40 | 3703268 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Heres one that'll make you fuckers laugh.

One of Camerons mates, owns a company here called 'Wonga' its a pay day loan firm that offers up to £400 quid over thirty days to folk who have fuck all and are just scraping by.  Hence the need for such a company.

Guess what?  They've just upped there top line interest rate to get this, 5560%, thats not a miss-type, thats 5560%.

We are all in this together?  Thats right innit?

Preying on those the weakest to withstand them folks, welcome to the new normal, get used to shit like this till it all comes tumbling down.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:55 | 3703298 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Those fuckers are some of the worst parasites out there. They are some of the worst kind of money changers. 2000 years later and we have the same problems just different players.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:49 | 3703480 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Now, if I could just borrow some quim instead of quid for 30 days, interest rates or no, then we could talk.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 20:55 | 3705232 Seeking Aphids
Seeking Aphids's picture

And they just started up in Canada...saw the ads for them (or an outfit like them) just the other day....a Brit company. Just what we need....now we can be screwed politely.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:43 | 3703275 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

consumer confidence, what a fucking joke of data.

 

first of all, who the fuck are they polling, because i bet you if they polled zerohedgers, the number would be 0.

 

also, just bear in mind, the peak for consumer confidence was in july of 07 i believe with a print of 90. 

 

so the same clowns who were confident back then, they r confident now. lol, they got no clue what is coming.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:45 | 3703279 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Diminishing returns'...indeed....that's what this is ALL about, a 'new slavery' which is failing and the 'new nobles' are in a panic. Can't live very well off of broke minimum wage part-time workers, end of story.

Fuckers have killed the golden goose, that's all.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:46 | 3703282 thewayitis
thewayitis's picture

Wow...Just got a .90 cent jump in silver....Must of been from CNBC when Rick from the Pawn Stars spoke from Las Vegas. Hahaha

 

 

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:56 | 3703303 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

the market should be green within 5 minutes.

 

what a fucking joke. its so obvious, the piece of shit fed just pumps at 10 am until 11 am each  morning.

 

i hope bernanke drops dead along with all his friends on wall st and the fed. fuck them all.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:07 | 3703324 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

as i fucking said, this market has come fucking back from down 130 at its lows to now fucking up and it did it in a straight move upwards all in less than an hour.

 

geez, must be people rushing to buy going into the weekend.

 

how is there no investigation going on as i type this.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:26 | 3703578 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must....Buy.....Moar Stawks.....Before Weekend.....mustbuy.....

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:28 | 3703398 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

I resolved, this New Years, to have more self-confidence, but I gave up- I just knew I could never pull it off.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:29 | 3703405 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Though, on a serious note- I think this confidence chart reflects the demographics.  I know my confidence falls year after year as I have passed 40 and 45.  And the demographics are not set to improve for another 20 years, at a minimum.

Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:33 | 3703603 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Can't spell confidence without CON!

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