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China PMI Drops To Lowest In 9 Months; Schrodinger's Economy Continues

Tyler Durden's picture


Following South Korea's dip back into contractionary mode (PMI sub-50 for first time in six months - prompting JPY strength and NKY weakness, on implicit KRW weakness retaliation), it appears China's government-sanctioned PMI (printed at 50.1 relative to 50.8 prior and 50.1 expectations) is converging down to the nation's HSBC PMI (whose Flash print was 48.3 - final due at 2145ET). This is the equal lowest print in 9 months but provides just enough cover to the current administration to maintain its tight policy stance - even if it was the biggest MoM drop in 10 months. On a side-note, all PMI sub-indices also fell MoM. The market's response is modest AUD strength and Nikkei weakness which suggests investors were hoping for a little weaker data to push China a litte closer to folding on their bubble-popping position.



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Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:20 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"the 50.1 print was EXACTLY what economists had forecasted, and as a reminder, anything over 50 means growth is still occuring".


Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:22 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

They had to cut back due to the 42 oz thing.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:31 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture



Get to work yu little bitch! mush I needs my 18 ft. flat screen onSALE, free delivery, it ain't gonna make itself

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 01:12 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Margin of error is very likely much bigger than 0.1. Taking it into account 50.1 can mean expansion or contraction.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 07:17 | Link to Comment slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

It is a subjective measurement, there is not a margin of error.  It is a survey where they ask if things are improving, the same, or worse.  Improving = 1, the same =.5, worse = 0.  Average the answers and you get the reading.  The panel of purchasing managers that they survey is carefully selected/rigged.  This index is like asking a realtor how the real estate market is doing.  it doesn't tell you if the economy is contracting or expanding, despite what bloombergI would have you believe.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 01:37 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The Chinese economy is drastically slowing down.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 06:07 | Link to Comment thestarl
thestarl's picture

How about stall speed more like it.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 02:00 | Link to Comment floyd084
floyd084's picture

well you know how the algo's are programmed.

if pmi > 50.0 then

buy market


Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:21 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Europe is doing so bad that Goldman had CNBC just fucking drop the Europe section from their website.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:24 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Maria loves it when Europe is "doing bad."

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:22 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Maria, that stupid snatch, only likes Europe when she can get a free ride on the corporations company jet she is supposed to to be reporting on.   Probably is not a free ride for her, working the whole flight on her back....

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 00:54 | Link to Comment Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Burn euro, burn...

Overvalued piece of..........

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 06:09 | Link to Comment thestarl
thestarl's picture

I'd like to bang that bitch right up the butt.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   The real number is coming up in 20 minutes.

18:45       CNY             Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI           48.3     48.3     

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:25 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

The night is still young. I'm sure at 4AM Eastern  they'll jam the market up up up on zero volume. Gotta open the markets green so the chumps buy. This will be a gift to the slow pokes that didn't get out of  the building Friday night.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:29 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, but Japan's all fixed, so we're good.  Green arrows at 9:30am.  Party on, Wayne.  Party on, Garth. 

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:42 | Link to Comment noob
noob's picture



Dr. Evil & Mini Me - Hard Knock Life HD

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:43 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

growth of what? oh yea. moar debt !
I mean wealth and suffering money .
and war

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:14 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

I read the news today, oh boy

About a PMI that missed the grade

And though the news was rather sad

Well, I just had to laugh

Having seen Tyler's graph


I heard the news today, Oh boy

Four thousand holes in BB's 'taper' plan

And though the holes were rather small

They couldn't count them all

Now they know how many ticks it'll take to ramp ES

They'd love to turn you on

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Sitting on the internet waiting for the nsa van to come

Corporation snoopers, stupid bloody troopers

zh man you been a naughty boy.

You let your comments grow long

I am the buzzman, they are the buzz men

I am the walrus, goo goo goo joob

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:47 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

More like "Back in the USSR"

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:01 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Yesterday, a 2.5% 10-YR seemed so far away

Now it looks as though it's here to stay

Oh, I believe in yesterday

Suddenly, I'm not half the trader I used to be

There's a shadow hanging over me

Oh, higher yields came suddenly


Why he had to taper, I don't know, he wouldn't say

My duration's far too long, now I long for yesterday


Yesterday, POMO was such an easy game to play

Now I actually have to earn my pay

Oh, I believe in yesterday

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 00:32 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

original lyrics, no shit ...
"scrambled eggs, oh my baby how I love your legs .." .

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:13 | Link to Comment Dudeskis
Dudeskis's picture

Brilliant.  Thank you for the lift. I needed it.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:26 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

China can't go all out print job with oil at 96+, will cause the oilers and others (whole nation) to buy massive amounts of USDs, hence causing their liquidity squeeze to become a full blown crisis.  China is stuck.  They need a distraction and fast.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:39 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the liquidity squeeze has been allowed on purpose

china has plenty of foreign reserves

the real problem is a serious internal overcapacity and overheating speculation verging on fukushima meltdown.

whatever happens in china it is because the china ptb allow it to happen not because of any international constraints. if anything the usa pigmen would like for them to throw more gasoline on the fire

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:53 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

I agree, but China may lose control of their levers.

Chinese, companies, average people, are stock piling USDs much like South America, more so Argentina and now maybe Brazil if the economy/political system blows apart.  The Pigman should be freaking, if China liquidates so far gold, but dump a load of USTs it will create a massive crash in stocks (bond crash).  Wall Street who is all in will take a margin call hit from hell.    It all points towards a massive deflationary collapse.  I can't see this that orchestrated.   

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:31 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Just bear in mind:

This is about controlling you.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i fully expect when i get up around 6:30 am eastern that futures will be green despite china continug to contract .


ben will be up early buying futures up.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:11 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Muppets need their green....

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:51 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Soylent Green....Availble Only on Pomo days.

This is getting so weird that I no longer require any chemical help. The thing is I hear its all fixed, but I know its not, I hear additional liquidity will calm the noise but it gets louder.

Where are the Statesmen, the thinkers, the plan..... there is none. 

And I hear the song.... Ring a ring of posies .. atitchu athichu we all fall down.

This is a pox on all

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 00:05 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Yup, ... when the stimulus spending, via debt, runs out, the slide in aggregate demand resumes ... which just means the Chinese economy and growth is indeed unsustainable and it is indeed just a credit bubble ... like all the rest. 

The more they stimulate with debt the worse it gets ...

Pretty soon the people are going to want the real solutions, not the fake temporary non-solutions that just makes the EXTREME OVER-FINANCIALIZATION even worse than it already is.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 01:17 | Link to Comment slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Direct treasury printing to buy and refinance consumer debt is what we need - one time and on terms where gets paid back in 30 years or less- so basically temporary money creation.. Get the consumer going and big biz will start to invest again. You may even see some small biz arise to challenge them on the way. We need to rid ourselves of the drain that 'financiers"  have over every aspect of the economy. They have no right to collect a vig on just about every dollar earned and created in America.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:25 | Link to Comment teahouse
teahouse's picture


Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:37 | Link to Comment toadold
toadold's picture

Printing money = diluting PM content of a coin = hidden tax of the "subjects." 

Ultimately fails when hidden tax drives subjects into other means of exchange or escape. 

Early Mesopotamian  clay tablets mention payment in units of silver rings. Say 30 rings of silver is the price you have to pay if you kill another mans slave. 

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