China PMI Drops To Lowest In 9 Months; Schrodinger's Economy Continues

Tyler Durden's picture


Following South Korea's dip back into contractionary mode (PMI sub-50 for first time in six months - prompting JPY strength and NKY weakness, on implicit KRW weakness retaliation), it appears China's government-sanctioned PMI (printed at 50.1 relative to 50.8 prior and 50.1 expectations) is converging down to the nation's HSBC PMI (whose Flash print was 48.3 - final due at 2145ET). This is the equal lowest print in 9 months but provides just enough cover to the current administration to maintain its tight policy stance - even if it was the biggest MoM drop in 10 months. On a side-note, all PMI sub-indices also fell MoM. The market's response is modest AUD strength and Nikkei weakness which suggests investors were hoping for a little weaker data to push China a litte closer to folding on their bubble-popping position.


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Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:20 | 3708919 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"the 50.1 print was EXACTLY what economists had forecasted, and as a reminder, anything over 50 means growth is still occuring".


Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:22 | 3708925 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

They had to cut back due to the 42 oz thing.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:31 | 3708946 prains
prains's picture



Get to work yu little bitch! mush I needs my 18 ft. flat screen onSALE, free delivery, it ain't gonna make itself

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 01:12 | 3709276 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Margin of error is very likely much bigger than 0.1. Taking it into account 50.1 can mean expansion or contraction.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 07:17 | 3709431 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

It is a subjective measurement, there is not a margin of error.  It is a survey where they ask if things are improving, the same, or worse.  Improving = 1, the same =.5, worse = 0.  Average the answers and you get the reading.  The panel of purchasing managers that they survey is carefully selected/rigged.  This index is like asking a realtor how the real estate market is doing.  it doesn't tell you if the economy is contracting or expanding, despite what bloombergI would have you believe.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 01:37 | 3709295 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The Chinese economy is drastically slowing down.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 06:07 | 3709394 thestarl
thestarl's picture

How about stall speed more like it.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 02:00 | 3709309 floyd084
floyd084's picture

well you know how the algo's are programmed.

if pmi > 50.0 then

buy market


Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:21 | 3708921 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Europe is doing so bad that Goldman had CNBC just fucking drop the Europe section from their website.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:24 | 3708928 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Maria loves it when Europe is "doing bad."

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:22 | 3709109 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Maria, that stupid snatch, only likes Europe when she can get a free ride on the corporations company jet she is supposed to to be reporting on.   Probably is not a free ride for her, working the whole flight on her back....

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 00:54 | 3709262 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Burn euro, burn...

Overvalued piece of..........

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 06:09 | 3709396 thestarl
thestarl's picture

I'd like to bang that bitch right up the butt.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:24 | 3708929 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   The real number is coming up in 20 minutes.

18:45       CNY             Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI           48.3     48.3     

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:25 | 3708931 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The night is still young. I'm sure at 4AM Eastern  they'll jam the market up up up on zero volume. Gotta open the markets green so the chumps buy. This will be a gift to the slow pokes that didn't get out of  the building Friday night.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:29 | 3708938 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, but Japan's all fixed, so we're good.  Green arrows at 9:30am.  Party on, Wayne.  Party on, Garth. 

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:42 | 3708960 noob
noob's picture



Dr. Evil & Mini Me - Hard Knock Life HD

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 21:43 | 3708961 blindman
blindman's picture

growth of what? oh yea. moar debt !
I mean wealth and suffering money .
and war

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:14 | 3709025 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

I read the news today, oh boy

About a PMI that missed the grade

And though the news was rather sad

Well, I just had to laugh

Having seen Tyler's graph


I heard the news today, Oh boy

Four thousand holes in BB's 'taper' plan

And though the holes were rather small

They couldn't count them all

Now they know how many ticks it'll take to ramp ES

They'd love to turn you on

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:34 | 3709064 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Sitting on the internet waiting for the nsa van to come

Corporation snoopers, stupid bloody troopers

zh man you been a naughty boy.

You let your comments grow long

I am the buzzman, they are the buzz men

I am the walrus, goo goo goo joob

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:47 | 3709080 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

More like "Back in the USSR"

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:01 | 3709101 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Yesterday, a 2.5% 10-YR seemed so far away

Now it looks as though it's here to stay

Oh, I believe in yesterday

Suddenly, I'm not half the trader I used to be

There's a shadow hanging over me

Oh, higher yields came suddenly


Why he had to taper, I don't know, he wouldn't say

My duration's far too long, now I long for yesterday


Yesterday, POMO was such an easy game to play

Now I actually have to earn my pay

Oh, I believe in yesterday

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 00:32 | 3709239 blindman
blindman's picture

original lyrics, no shit ...
"scrambled eggs, oh my baby how I love your legs .." .

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:13 | 3709332 Dudeskis
Dudeskis's picture

Brilliant.  Thank you for the lift. I needed it.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:26 | 3709045 chump666
chump666's picture

China can't go all out print job with oil at 96+, will cause the oilers and others (whole nation) to buy massive amounts of USDs, hence causing their liquidity squeeze to become a full blown crisis.  China is stuck.  They need a distraction and fast.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:39 | 3709068 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the liquidity squeeze has been allowed on purpose

china has plenty of foreign reserves

the real problem is a serious internal overcapacity and overheating speculation verging on fukushima meltdown.

whatever happens in china it is because the china ptb allow it to happen not because of any international constraints. if anything the usa pigmen would like for them to throw more gasoline on the fire

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:53 | 3709185 chump666
chump666's picture

I agree, but China may lose control of their levers.

Chinese, companies, average people, are stock piling USDs much like South America, more so Argentina and now maybe Brazil if the economy/political system blows apart.  The Pigman should be freaking, if China liquidates so far gold, but dump a load of USTs it will create a massive crash in stocks (bond crash).  Wall Street who is all in will take a margin call hit from hell.    It all points towards a massive deflationary collapse.  I can't see this that orchestrated.   

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:31 | 3709059 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Just bear in mind:

This is about controlling you.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 22:34 | 3709065 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i fully expect when i get up around 6:30 am eastern that futures will be green despite china continug to contract .


ben will be up early buying futures up.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 23:11 | 3709113 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Muppets need their green....

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:51 | 3709345 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Soylent Green....Availble Only on Pomo days.

This is getting so weird that I no longer require any chemical help. The thing is I hear its all fixed, but I know its not, I hear additional liquidity will calm the noise but it gets louder.

Where are the Statesmen, the thinkers, the plan..... there is none. 

And I hear the song.... Ring a ring of posies .. atitchu athichu we all fall down.

This is a pox on all

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 00:05 | 3709205 Element
Element's picture

Yup, ... when the stimulus spending, via debt, runs out, the slide in aggregate demand resumes ... which just means the Chinese economy and growth is indeed unsustainable and it is indeed just a credit bubble ... like all the rest. 

The more they stimulate with debt the worse it gets ...

Pretty soon the people are going to want the real solutions, not the fake temporary non-solutions that just makes the EXTREME OVER-FINANCIALIZATION even worse than it already is.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 01:17 | 3709280 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Direct treasury printing to buy and refinance consumer debt is what we need - one time and on terms where gets paid back in 30 years or less- so basically temporary money creation.. Get the consumer going and big biz will start to invest again. You may even see some small biz arise to challenge them on the way. We need to rid ourselves of the drain that 'financiers"  have over every aspect of the economy. They have no right to collect a vig on just about every dollar earned and created in America.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:25 | 3709335 teahouse
teahouse's picture


Mon, 07/01/2013 - 03:37 | 3709342 toadold
toadold's picture

Printing money = diluting PM content of a coin = hidden tax of the "subjects." 

Ultimately fails when hidden tax drives subjects into other means of exchange or escape. 

Early Mesopotamian  clay tablets mention payment in units of silver rings. Say 30 rings of silver is the price you have to pay if you kill another mans slave. 

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