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How The "Taper Tantrum" Cost US Banks $25 Billion In Q2 Net Income

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Ever since back in 2009 the US financial system effectively suspended Mark-To-Market accounting for the too big to fail (and all other) banks (read our description of FAS 157 and 115 here), the Income Statement impact (i.e., net income above the [Other Comprehensive Income] line) of wild interest rates moves on bank balance sheets has been one thing US banks have not had to worry about. The reason for this is the transformation of large swaths of rate-sensitive holdings (the vast majority of bank assets) on the balance sheet to “Held to Maturity” meaning no matter how much higher or lower interest rates moved, banks would be immune from flowing Mark to Market losses (or gains) through the income statement.

Yet despite best effort to immunize banks from rate swings and debt MTM risk, a substantial amount of duration exposure has remained with the glorified hedge funds known as FDIC-insured bank holdings companies under the designation of “Available For Sale” (AFS) or those which due to their explicit short-term trading fate, would have to be subject to mark to market moves.

It is the bottom line impact of these securities that threatens to crush bank earnings in the just concluded second quarter by an amount that could be as large as $25 (or more) billion.

As an aside, it is technically not true that banks are devoid of GAAP rate and duration risk: over the past four years, banks had found themselves in the paradoxical situation where blowing out spreads impacting bank credit instruments (debt and CDS) due to systemic or industry-specific rate shifts, actually resulted in a boost to the adjusted bottom line since the so-called DVA impact had to be netted out from pro forma net income, leading to a non-GAAP EPS bonanza when things got really rough.

However, a far bigger issue is what happens to banks in a time when rates surge violently and dramatically in a short period of time. Such as in the past two weeks.

As we previously explained, in places like Japan, the rapid blow out in yields (with the 10Y hitting 1% coinciding with the peak of the Nikkei 225 so far in 2013) has a massive adverse impact on banks, and where a 100% parallel shift in the curve may lead to as much as a 35% impairment in bank capital.

But how about the US?

After all, while the Fed is the single largest holder of Treasurys (and whose P&L suffered a massive $200+ billion, or 4 times its “capital”, loss in June alone) courtesy of the ineffable “faith” in fiat, Bernanke has no Mark to Market restrictions (at least until such time as the reserve currency status of the USD is questioned, and so is the faith of the US central bank but that is the topic for another article) US banks do have substantial duration exposure to the tune of hundreds of billions, primarily concentrated in the spring-loaded clip known as Available For Sale securities.

So just how large is said duration exposure? According to JPM’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou it’s quite substantial, and amounts to a whopping $30 billion in MTM losses for every 1% increase in yields. Or in other words, the Q2 blow out in the 10 Year should have resulted in a $20-30 billion loss to the US financial system’s bottom line (through the Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income line) in the second quarter alone (all else equal, and for a hyper-levered system in which everything is contingent on smaller and smaller rates all else is never equal implying many more adverse downstream effects will likely be revealed).

From JPM:

How large is the duration risk of banks’ portfolios? The Fed's H.8 release provides some guidance on this for US banks. Each week, the Fed reports the net unrealized gain on banks’ available for sale securities. This is by no means a complete measure of banks’ duration exposure. It does not include held to maturity portfolios (albeit these are much smaller than AFS portfolios), and importantly does not include the impact of any swap hedges. Also, not all bank branches may mark their portfolios to market every day or week.

 

All that said, unrealized gains had fallen from $37bn at the start of May to $15bn by Wednesday of last week.

 

 

We can infer banks’ duration exposure by relating week-to-week changes in unrealized gains to week-to-week changes in the yield of our US aggregate bond index, the GABI. Figure 3 shows this beta, estimated over a rolling 6-month window to smooth through the noise in the estimate. It suggests that banks would make MTM losses on their available for sale portfolios of just under $30bn for each 1% increase in yields.

 

 

Estimating the beta over three months would give very similar results.

 

That beta is around twice as large as in 2010, whereas the size of banks’ bond portfolios has increased by only around 20% over that period, implying that banks in aggregate have been shifting towards longer-maturity securities. The beta of just under $30bn for a 1% rise in yields implies that the 18bp rise in GABI yields since the last H8 report would have reduced unrealized gains by a further $5.4bn.

Oops: this is precisely why when everyone is scrambling to chase yields and in the process increases duration to preserve some NIM in a centrally-planned, manipulated, collapsing rate environment (resulting in a doubling of bank duration exposure beta in under three years!) any rapid inverse move will leave everyone with massive losses. Losses that may be as much as $30 billion or more.

Putting this number in perspective, according to the FDIC, in Q1 banks recorded profits of $40 billion. There goes half of Q1 profits...

But while the US losses may be manageable, if crushing to sellside analysts who have bet the farm – once again incorrectly - on S&P 500 earnings picking up in Q2 due to a surge in financial profits which are now locked far lower at June 28th 10Y levels and resulting in billions in MTM losses that will have to hit the Net Income line, it is things in Europe that are about to get nasty once again.

US banks have been modestly reducing their bond holdings since the start of May, by around $19bn overall. By contrast, Euro area banks bought a hefty €48bn in May, largely because Italian and Spanish banks added to their holdings as spreads edged wider.

And while we don't have a convenient weekly update on banking sector unrealized losses in Europe as per the US H.8., it looks like the European periphery’s Monte Carlo double-down “all in” bluff may have just been called. Or in other words, now that the carry trade tide has gone away, we finally see how many European banks were swimming naked (for a hint from Goldman Sachs, see here). We can’t help but wonder how many of their US brethren will join them with their pants down as bank results are reported over the next several weeks.

 

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Sun, 06/30/2013 - 15:57 | 3708194 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

2.75 <=====

2.25 <=====

where does the 10yr go next?

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 17:27 | 3708387 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

It will go lower.

Ben was just fuckin' around to see what ya'll bitchez would do.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 20:54 | 3708847 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Poor bebes.
Banksters taking it on the chin

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 17:39 | 3708403 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Hey Fonz, if you look at the DXY data. (second from bottom) Net $ longs were cut last week. I'm not sure how that will play out in the bond market this week, but it's something to keep an eye on. That cash can sit on the sidelines, go into equities or bonds.

  Futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the close on Tuesday, June 25:

    EUR net long 17K vs long 20K prior
    JPY net short 61K vs short 62K prior
    GBP net short 19K vs short 20K prior
    AUD net short 62K vs short 64K prior
    CAD net short 10K vs short 26K prior
    NZD net short 1K vs long 2K prior
    CHF net long 2K vs long 6K prior
    Dollar Index net long 12K vs 15K prior
    Gold net long 34K vs 43K prior

 

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 18:51 | 3708582 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong here, but don't AFS unrealized gains & losses accrue to OCI in the Equity section of the balance sheet, and not flow through to actual "bottom line" Net Income on the US until sold???

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 18:52 | 3708588 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong here, but don't AFS unrealized gains & losses accrue to OCI in the Equity section of the balance sheet, and not flow through to actual "bottom line" Net Income on the IS until sold???

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 18:52 | 3708589 Midasking
Midasking's picture

They will go lower or Ben will cap the rates.  Otherwise US gov has to hang going out of business sign on the door. http://tinyurl.com/pp588mj

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:08 | 3708221 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bank earnings for the next few years should be interesting. jpm & gs et al common way overpriced imo.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 17:07 | 3708351 max2205
max2205's picture

You'll know it's bad when MMkt go below $1.00... And all hell breaks lose

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 17:13 | 3708363 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

And all funds in the money markets funds are frozen for god knows only how long.

 

Get out of the .1% return money market funds today.   You have no idea of the risk you are running.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:12 | 3708228 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

$20-$30 Billion dollar loss to U.S. Financial institutions.

ROFLMAO!

My laughter is tempered by the realization that it will come out of our hides one way or another.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:47 | 3708311 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I would say the gains/losses from the 10 year rate movement are actually around $200 billion based purely on the IR swaps market.  The derivatives are all that matter here, who gives a shit whether they are AFS or not?  Obfuscation piece to hide the real loss.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:15 | 3708237 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

The story remains the same.  American banks are deleveraging and becoming stronger, whilst European banks are adding to risk and getting weaker. 

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/around-the-globe-06-30-2013/

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:16 | 3708239 Freeman Tilden
Freeman Tilden's picture

 

 

The whole chain of claims being based upon the identical wealth and upon current accretions to wealth resulting from the use of credit, it must follow that some of the claims are more realizable than others.

In a panic , when the chain snaps, it snaps always at the link nearest to the actual owner of the capital.

You may salvage what you can from the other links.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:21 | 3708254 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Good. Force those parasites out of business and throw their criminal CEOs into prisons.

Imagine the productive economic activity that would take place transitioning the criminal monetary system that we now have to one granted under the Constitution of the United States of America.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:27 | 3708261 Tinky
Tinky's picture

One small tweak: for every CEO thrown in prison, release 10,000 minor drug offenders.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:40 | 3708296 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Release the 10,000 after they have had an opportunity to Bubba-ize the 1.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:38 | 3708292 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Paul Craig Roberts hypothesizes the opposite result claimed by the author:

As the Fed is committed to saving the banks “too big to fail,” it is likely that the banks know of the Fed’s announcements in advance. With inside information, the banks know precisely when to short the stock, bond, and bullion markets. The banks make billions from the inside information. The billions made help to restore the banks’ balance sheets.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/06/20/the-rational-market-myth-paul-craig-roberts/


Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:52 | 3708324 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

This is correct, kinda.  The banks that have their shit together enough to all be on the same page are doing great, but some banks (as shown in the JPM "whale trade" fiasco) are run by CEO's that spend more time on their hair than actually looking at their numbers.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:45 | 3708307 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Oh if only the banks had to earn money the old fashioned way and the taxpayers didn't have to pay their bonuses anymore.  Taper the Fed.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 16:50 | 3708319 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Awesome. So now their crimes are beginning to blowback upon themselves. Good to see you finally show your face in this game justice.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 17:00 | 3708337 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Is there any information not produced by either the Fed, GS, or JPmoron that can be used?  I wouldn't trust anything coming from those criminal organizations.

Sun, 06/30/2013 - 17:55 | 3708439 Sechel
Sechel's picture

To be fair, regulators have highlighted duration risk as something the banks need to worry about.  That said suspension of mark to market has created a great opacity over the financial markets, but the risk is there. Any doctor knows that sunlight is the best disinfectant and that's exactly what we need, sunlight not darkness with bank portfolios.

Of course the big banks may have hedged interest rate risk via the libor swap market, but wait, 93% of derivative trading is between the top five banks, so it never really went away.

 

We're hosed.

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