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Muppet Alert: Stolper Says To Go Long EURUSD With 1.35 Target, 1.28 Stop Loss

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Trading FX without a Tom Stolper reco to fade is complicated: there is always the risk of losing money. Luckily, that risk is now gone and for all those unsure which pair to short, the man with the 0.001 batting average has just come out with his latest piece of muppet-slaying "research", according to which it is now time to go long the EURUSD, with a 1.35 target and a 1.28 stop loss. You know what to do.

From Goldman: Go long EUR/$ on better growth in the periphery and large BBoP differential

The Euro area PMI numbers over the last two months point to notable improvement in the periphery. Spain’s manufacturing PMI has risen to 50, which would be consistent with marginally positive growth. In turn, this creates upside risks to 2013 consensus growth expectations, which remain very low at around -1.6% yoy. The Italian PMI also improved. Stabilising growth in both countries could lead to further sovereign spread compression, which has been a positive factor for the EUR in the past.

 

The balance of payments situation remains very EUR supportive as well. The current account surplus is now close to 2.5% of GDP and weak but improving growth in the Euro area translates into balanced net portfolio and FDI flows. As a result the BBoP (= current account + FDI + portfolio flows) remains in sizable surplus, similar to the current account, and typically this is consistent with EUR appreciation.

 

On the US side, the BBoP situation remains relatively unchanged. The current account deficit has been stable at about 3% of GDP since 2009, but FDI and portfolio flow remain on balance slightly negative. As a result, the BBoP shows a deficit of about 3.5% on a 4-quarter rolling basis and 5.1% on the latest reading, typically consistent with Dollar weakness.

 

In the short term, there is the risk that a dovish ECB meeting provides a headwind, but we think further contraction in Euro-area risk premia and the large difference in the external balances will dominate and continue to support EUR/$. We would go long at current levels of about 1.3060 for an initial target of 1.35 with a stop on a close below 1.28.

With the ECB likely jawboning for more "360 credit" easing in two days, and the threat of a breakout NFP number on Friday sending the USD soaring on a resurgence of Taper tantri (or is that tantrums?) and the EUR imploding, we kinda have a feeling which way in the EURUSD the Goldman FX flow desk is axed...

 

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Mon, 07/01/2013 - 11:54 | 3710254 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

God's gift to FX traders.  Immediate fade.  Thank you Tom and Tyler.   I need a home run right now.  

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:10 | 3710317 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

SELL!! SELL!! SELL!!

-30-

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:43 | 3710442 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

He might be right for the next 50 pips, but that's about all I give it before I sell.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:00 | 3710514 Manthong
Manthong's picture

screw the stop loss..

take a stand..

ride it out... beat the mo'fos.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3723118 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

tick tick tick - down to 1.2815 on the payrolls report

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:00 | 3710276 Blakyak
Blakyak's picture

Man.. what would I be without Stolper...

Going short.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:03 | 3710291 killallthefiat
Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:15 | 3710571 tsx500
tsx500's picture

that's what she said.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:24 | 3710614 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

That's very politically incorrect nowadays.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 14:22 | 3710847 Manthong
Manthong's picture

yes, but even though discretion is usually the better part of valor, sometimes valor just means slamming it in.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:03 | 3710298 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This might actually be a good trade tossed out there to keep the muppets on the hook. The only way to keep them at the table is to let them have a winner now and then.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:13 | 3710333 Watson
Watson's picture

You're quite correct.

However, throwing an occasional good idea out into the marketplace is also (on a one-trade horizon) throwing away a bit of today's P&L, even if it increases long-term P&L.

And I'm not sure of GS's horizons...

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:50 | 3710474 garypaul
garypaul's picture

I need to do more analysis, but I'm not sure if muppets need a good trade tossed out once in a while. They are muppets by definition after all.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:57 | 3710499 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

They provide gold trade recommendations for that purpose.  It has the double benefit of

- Maintaining their credibility (eg 'Well, it SEEMS like they're constantly out to fuck us, but then, what about the 'short gold' homerun they gave us')

- Conditioning the muppets to trust their gold reco's, setting them up for the ultimate muppet slaughter at some future date (eg 'I don't really trust GS, but the one thing they've always been right on is their gold reco's, so going short here MUST be the right thing to do')

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:08 | 3710309 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Statistics have it against Stolper--brutally so.  

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:12 | 3710328 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Six-figures to be consistently wrong . . . my prose is more readable than his - who do I appliy to at GS??!!

-30-

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:17 | 3710360 espirit
espirit's picture

Depends on how many "tricks" you can do in a days time.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:18 | 3710349 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Damm, if every day ain't a holiday and every meal a banquet when Stolper trades are annnounced at ZH...God Bless you Tyler.....   :)

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:18 | 3710362 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Can Banzai put a halo around a picture of Stolper?  He is our saint.   

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:21 | 3710373 ...out of space
...out of space's picture

well angela merkel tried to be re-elected. and she need strong eur.

just for consider about summer time swing

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:22 | 3710380 SpykerSpeed
SpykerSpeed's picture

So I guess when Zero Hedge pushes gold and silver in a deflationary environment (even as the price is crashing), that's not muppetry?

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:44 | 3710447 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

yeah no shit. "this is NOT a traders market" folks. you're either in the Club folks...or out of it. simple as that.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:11 | 3710556 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

So....if your butthole is on fire, because of no lube, it's a safe bet, you ain't in it!!

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:26 | 3710389 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Shorted a ton of EURO at 1.3062.  May Stolper be with me.  

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:56 | 3710493 konputa
konputa's picture

I'm in, short at 3060. It's been overbought at the 4H, 1H, 30M timeframes, etc anyway. Good luck!

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:45 | 3710703 DC3
DC3's picture

Which ticker did you use to short?

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 14:45 | 3710931 konputa
konputa's picture

I think most of us just sold a few/bunch of lots of EUR/USD in our forex accounts.

Maybe look into EUO, EUFX or similar if you want to go the ETF route.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 11:42 | 3734108 DC3
DC3's picture

Thanks buddy

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:29 | 3710404 css1971
css1971's picture

Are you sure Stolper is a real person? Stolper in German means to stumble.

 

http://dict.leo.org/#/search=stumble

 

 

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:32 | 3710411 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Translation of Stolpers recommendation: straight move to 1.25 Bitchez!

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:35 | 3710417 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      I wouldn't be surprised to see the eur/usd trading on the 1.2750 handle within 2-3 weeks. It's using the 200 day sma as resistance right now and looks heavy on the weekly chart. Europe is a tinder box. There you have it folks.

   The, Stolper Contrarian Oscillator ®

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 12:35 | 3710421 misnomer00
misnomer00's picture

thanks. going short sl 1.32 tgt 1.25

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:45 | 3710709 misnomer00
misnomer00's picture

will add more at 1.3125

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:02 | 3710522 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

That is one giant head and shoulders chart if you look at the 1 year.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:05 | 3710532 konputa
konputa's picture

Oh look at that, the short is alerady in the money. Muppets, bitches.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:07 | 3710545 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Muppet alert is right.  Euro monthly looks very bearish.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-euro-monthly-closes-monthly-outloo...

 

Looks like GS/Stopler have a lot of inventory to unload on potential bagholders.

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:10 | 3710552 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

I didn't realize Tom Stuper's avg was that good!!? Go muppets!! LOL

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:15 | 3710575 Howdan
Howdan's picture

All hail "Saint Stolper Of Forex"

Blessed be he who guideth the muppets

Through the land of Forex

Straight into the dark abyss of Goldman Flow Desk's P&L account

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:52 | 3710729 anyways
anyways's picture

:) i love the Stolper Stories!

 

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Mon, 07/01/2013 - 13:58 | 3710757 RhoneGSM
RhoneGSM's picture

IDK.. even a blind squirrell finds an acorn now & then...

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 14:47 | 3710939 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Filled 3062

Mon, 07/01/2013 - 14:53 | 3710955 ...out of space
...out of space's picture

not filled

its a triangel on 5 min chart. it will stay here to the rest of a day

 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:01 | 3727419 dannyboy
dannyboy's picture

stolper :) making the zh traders rich since foreverr

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