Muppet Alert: Stolper Says To Go Long EURUSD With 1.35 Target, 1.28 Stop Loss

Tyler Durden's picture

Trading FX without a Tom Stolper reco to fade is complicated: there is always the risk of losing money. Luckily, that risk is now gone and for all those unsure which pair to short, the man with the 0.001 batting average has just come out with his latest piece of muppet-slaying "research", according to which it is now time to go long the EURUSD, with a 1.35 target and a 1.28 stop loss. You know what to do.

From Goldman: Go long EUR/$ on better growth in the periphery and large BBoP differential

The Euro area PMI numbers over the last two months point to notable improvement in the periphery. Spain’s manufacturing PMI has risen to 50, which would be consistent with marginally positive growth. In turn, this creates upside risks to 2013 consensus growth expectations, which remain very low at around -1.6% yoy. The Italian PMI also improved. Stabilising growth in both countries could lead to further sovereign spread compression, which has been a positive factor for the EUR in the past.


The balance of payments situation remains very EUR supportive as well. The current account surplus is now close to 2.5% of GDP and weak but improving growth in the Euro area translates into balanced net portfolio and FDI flows. As a result the BBoP (= current account + FDI + portfolio flows) remains in sizable surplus, similar to the current account, and typically this is consistent with EUR appreciation.


On the US side, the BBoP situation remains relatively unchanged. The current account deficit has been stable at about 3% of GDP since 2009, but FDI and portfolio flow remain on balance slightly negative. As a result, the BBoP shows a deficit of about 3.5% on a 4-quarter rolling basis and 5.1% on the latest reading, typically consistent with Dollar weakness.


In the short term, there is the risk that a dovish ECB meeting provides a headwind, but we think further contraction in Euro-area risk premia and the large difference in the external balances will dominate and continue to support EUR/$. We would go long at current levels of about 1.3060 for an initial target of 1.35 with a stop on a close below 1.28.

With the ECB likely jawboning for more "360 credit" easing in two days, and the threat of a breakout NFP number on Friday sending the USD soaring on a resurgence of Taper tantri (or is that tantrums?) and the EUR imploding, we kinda have a feeling which way in the EURUSD the Goldman FX flow desk is axed...

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slaughterer's picture

God's gift to FX traders.  Immediate fade.  Thank you Tom and Tyler.   I need a home run right now.  

WonderDawg's picture

He might be right for the next 50 pips, but that's about all I give it before I sell.

Manthong's picture

screw the stop loss..

take a stand..

ride it out... beat the mo'fos.

aint no fortunate son's picture

tick tick tick - down to 1.2815 on the payrolls report

Blakyak's picture

Man.. what would I be without Stolper...

Going short.

SilverIsKing's picture

That's very politically incorrect nowadays.

Manthong's picture

yes, but even though discretion is usually the better part of valor, sometimes valor just means slamming it in.

Dr. Engali's picture

This might actually be a good trade tossed out there to keep the muppets on the hook. The only way to keep them at the table is to let them have a winner now and then.

Watson's picture

You're quite correct.

However, throwing an occasional good idea out into the marketplace is also (on a one-trade horizon) throwing away a bit of today's P&L, even if it increases long-term P&L.

And I'm not sure of GS's horizons...

garypaul's picture

I need to do more analysis, but I'm not sure if muppets need a good trade tossed out once in a while. They are muppets by definition after all.

Al Huxley's picture

They provide gold trade recommendations for that purpose.  It has the double benefit of

- Maintaining their credibility (eg 'Well, it SEEMS like they're constantly out to fuck us, but then, what about the 'short gold' homerun they gave us')

- Conditioning the muppets to trust their gold reco's, setting them up for the ultimate muppet slaughter at some future date (eg 'I don't really trust GS, but the one thing they've always been right on is their gold reco's, so going short here MUST be the right thing to do')

slaughterer's picture

Statistics have it against Stolper--brutally so.  

MarsInScorpio's picture

Six-figures to be consistently wrong . . . my prose is more readable than his - who do I appliy to at GS??!!


espirit's picture

Depends on how many "tricks" you can do in a days time.

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Damm, if every day ain't a holiday and every meal a banquet when Stolper trades are annnounced at ZH...God Bless you Tyler.....   :)

slaughterer's picture

Can Banzai put a halo around a picture of Stolper?  He is our saint.   

...out of space's picture

well angela merkel tried to be re-elected. and she need strong eur.

just for consider about summer time swing

SpykerSpeed's picture

So I guess when Zero Hedge pushes gold and silver in a deflationary environment (even as the price is crashing), that's not muppetry?

disabledvet's picture

yeah no shit. "this is NOT a traders market" folks. you're either in the Club folks...or out of it. simple as that.

sodbuster's picture

So....if your butthole is on fire, because of no lube, it's a safe bet, you ain't in it!!

slaughterer's picture

Shorted a ton of EURO at 1.3062.  May Stolper be with me.  

konputa's picture

I'm in, short at 3060. It's been overbought at the 4H, 1H, 30M timeframes, etc anyway. Good luck!

DC3's picture

Which ticker did you use to short?

konputa's picture

I think most of us just sold a few/bunch of lots of EUR/USD in our forex accounts.

Maybe look into EUO, EUFX or similar if you want to go the ETF route.

css1971's picture

Are you sure Stolper is a real person? Stolper in German means to stumble.



flyingpigg's picture

Translation of Stolpers recommendation: straight move to 1.25 Bitchez!

Yen Cross's picture

      I wouldn't be surprised to see the eur/usd trading on the 1.2750 handle within 2-3 weeks. It's using the 200 day sma as resistance right now and looks heavy on the weekly chart. Europe is a tinder box. There you have it folks.

   The, Stolper Contrarian Oscillator ®

misnomer00's picture

thanks. going short sl 1.32 tgt 1.25

bonzo112358's picture

That is one giant head and shoulders chart if you look at the 1 year.

konputa's picture

Oh look at that, the short is alerady in the money. Muppets, bitches.

orangegeek's picture

Muppet alert is right.  Euro monthly looks very bearish.


Looks like GS/Stopler have a lot of inventory to unload on potential bagholders.

sodbuster's picture

I didn't realize Tom Stuper's avg was that good!!? Go muppets!! LOL

Howdan's picture

All hail "Saint Stolper Of Forex"

Blessed be he who guideth the muppets

Through the land of Forex

Straight into the dark abyss of Goldman Flow Desk's P&L account

anyways's picture

:) i love the Stolper Stories!


WARNING: The National Security Agency is likely recording and storing this communication as part of its unlawful spying programs on all people worldwide.

RhoneGSM's picture

IDK.. even a blind squirrell finds an acorn now & then...

...out of space's picture

not filled

its a triangel on 5 min chart. it will stay here to the rest of a day


dannyboy's picture

stolper :) making the zh traders rich since foreverr