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Oppenheimer: "Time To Cover All Shorts In Gold And Gold Miners" Because "Gold Stocks Are So Bad, They're Good"
Whether lucky or good, Oppenheimer's Carter Worth was accurate in calling for a drop in gold back in January of 2013. From his note at the time: "For those without the time or inclination to read past the first page (we're told by the marketing experts that many people don't read past the first page of most research reports) here is the summary, in one word, of today's edition of "Money in Motion" focusing on Gold Bullion: SELL."
Fast forward to today, when the technician pulls a U-Turn, and says that "at this time, we believe gold and gold miners represent good risk/reward. Indeed, the recent extreme weakness is judged to be the reciprocal or correlative of the extreme strength witnessed in the summer of 2011. The "despair" relating to gold now is as palpable as "euphoria" then."
And always one with a witty turn of the phrase, Worth summarizes his shift in sentiment as follows: "The bottom line, by our work, is this: at this time it is right to cover all shorts in gold and gold miners… and we would look for opportunities on the long side.... The charts of the individual equities are atrocious. And that is the circumstance that compels today's report. The stocks are judged to be "so bad, that they're good"."
Worth's short-term target, based on charts and squiggles: $1,395.
Some more squiggles...
And even more squiggles:
There are many more squiggles in the full report, leading Worth to also give a "buy" reco on the following miners:
Of course, as we showed over the weekend when we demonstrated the unprecedented technical sentiment dislocations behind gold with a stunning amount of gross gold shorts, should the long-overdue gold squeeze indeed take place, then $1395 will be merely the first stop.
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I didnt read anywhere that its time to buy?
Did he mention anything about increasing money supply and increasing credit defaults?
No, just 'buy because they're really bad on the charts'? Oh well... pinch of salt...
Happy Canada Day!
1/3 RD Of A Year Wait To Get Your Physical Out Of The LME Bitches!!!
Another CYPRUS EVENT ...
LME Seeks to Shorten 100-Day Withdrawal Times at Warehouses
The London Metal Exchange, the world’s biggest metals marketplace, is seeking to speed up withdrawals from stockpiles in warehouses where waiting times exceed 100 calendar days.
Those warehouses would have to deliver out more metal than they take in, based on a formula, the LME said in a statement today. Market participants are being consulted until Sept. 30, the exchange said. Its board is expected to review the plan in October, and the proposal would take effect April 1 if approved, the statement showed.
LME users have said long waits for withdrawals helped to lift premiums for metals from aluminum to copper. The Beer Institute, representing members including MillerCoors LLC, last month urged the exchange to act to reduce waiting times. Sites with lengthy waits include Johor in Malaysia, the biggest LME copper repository, according to Societe Generale SA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-01/lme-seeks-to-reduce-lines-at-wa...
Russians to provide security in USA
Yep... read the press release.
From Russia
Tucked away it says....
and to provide security at ..US events...
Get all that gold you can!
http://en.mchs.ru/news/item/434203/
I forget.. what is that thing called the G/S ratio?
The dollar is strong versus the yen today and the Dow is up 156 pts, yet gold miners are soaring and gold is up $21/oz.
Nope, no manipulation......nothing to see here......please move along.
Happy POMO eve.
again "you and i do not see the leverage that exists underneath." so sure...buy, buy, buy. the amount of money lost in the past six weeks is truly STAGGERING. if this is the beginning of a full fledged winding down of QE then gold is clearly going to struggle here. in other words..."no, we don't have a new bull market in gold" (i will give myself a hat tip for calling a bottom last friday however. yay me! yay me!) the point being the "Big Picture" (and if that blog meant anything to anyone anymore they would have thought this through) is a general interest rate rise globally. obviously this KILLS growth and means you don't want to touch anything in the commodity complex right now. just as obviously the debt markets and commodities go hand in hand. so no...you don't want to touch anything that isn't rated at the highest level (are ratings any good anymore?) unless it is structured very well and being sold at the institutional level.
I want it. Gold & silver are making massive innovations in medicine.
The strongest destruction of demand is not loss of wages & jobs.
It's loss of health & life. Medicine helps fight that. Gold & silver will help do that.
Pffffffttt... Who are these guys? I said to buy LONG before Oppenheimer. Wait.. Oops.
Oh well.
Gold ripping higher today. Live chart right now: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
So all these guys come out of the woodwork on a few up days. I guess it makes sense for a trend reversal from a trading perspective. But we really don't have one yet. These guys show up saying "bottom is in" because we have one or two up days. Makes one question their real purpose. Too scared to buy and hold when it is plunging. At the same time, too early from a strategic trading perspective, perhaps saying buy at the top.
I can say "Bottom is in" after an up day on a major downtrend and look right for a day.
Why would anyone think technical analysis of a manipulated market is useful?
because if you do it right it shows the time-zone & the size of the manipulation. This helps expose the multiple repeating pattern of the manipulator(s) so as to determine (easily) their actual goal. Think of it this way. If you didn't know what football is and didn't know what the goal is, if you watched it long enough you'd probably figure out the goal includes carrying a ball to one end & you'd eventually figure out which end is dominant as they take turns. Without being told any rules.
First the Russians, then in 2015 the UN.
No drones, though!
only the herd goes to US events. The rest of us sit idly by with our assault rifles.
Not buying PMs above $1,000/$16. Summer pukefest continues into Sept. FOMC.
On 6/28, Armstrong writes:
"As we have stated, Friday was the target day for this week. Gold fell so far to 1179.4 about $20 above the first support zone. A 3 day reaction into next week should develop before resuming any decline."
he's been very accurate but I still think he's "turned".....so take him like any of um .......with a grain of salt
If you have read Martin in the last few years, he has been very consistent in his timeframes and target levels.
2015.75 -> onward gold will start rising (if not before then).
Of course around that time we should see Monetary Defaults, and all kinds of other bad stuff.
His rhetoric seems to be more pro central banking than I recall in the past.
Did Armstrong see $1900 coming anywhere in his doodlings?
No, he missed that entire rally.
Fuck him.
Well, it was a good thing that he was battening down the hatches from $300 to $1900, he could have really lost money, you know, after $1900.
TO: Bay of Pigs
I think you are mistaken
I was introduced to Armstrong through Jim Sinclair's site about 3-4 years ago, when he was still publishing on a type writer.
If it was on Sinclair's site it must have been VERY-VERY-VERY bullish on gold or it would not have been there!
Yes ... If memory serves Armstrong was in the $15,000 camp (which has lately become the $55,000 camp) in more than a few of his prophetic tomes ... you know, his old-school "world-wide-webby" pages with different-colored fonts on a white background and lots of clipart (that's a not a high-brow French term, btw).
What happened to Martin Armstrong? I know when a market turns a lot of these guys scramble for the underbrush.
Ah, Martin was NEVER in the $15,000 camp. He said it would be impossible.
(For the same reasons that $500 a barrel oil is impossible. There would be no system left if they were to reach that level)
Are you in the camp that believes that the discussion would be that much different if he said $12,000 as opposed to $15,000? Because it wouldn't. He stoked the flames of buying gold in anticipation of outrageous highs with the best.
Others have seen that Armstrong called a parabolic rise and five digits. Proof, I google "Martin Armstrong $10,000" and the very first hit:
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/GOLD-5000-11-11-09.pdf
note Pladizow's typewriter...Fort Dix NJ contact address, that's right, and 2016 call for the top.
You guys, you try to deify these price callers, you should simply weigh their advice against the evidence. They are human. Stop the guru worship. BTW the connotation in sanskrit for the word "guru" is "lucky motherf'er". Whoever said the ancients had no sense of irony, were wrong.
And, it is possible to be wrong before you are right, or right before you are wrong, or right then wrong then right again. Lucky beats good any and every day.
Disclosure: I am a stacker.
.
He started trashing gold when they let him out of prison.
He was a bull before that, yes.
I sometimes wonder if 'they let him out of prison when he agreed as part of the conditions of release to start trashing gold'. Can't fault him, though - things were pretty bleak for him there at one point - what with being an enemy of the state and all.
He Doesn't "trash Gold". I think BoP above you is pissed that Martin doesn't say "IT GOING TO THE MOON".
Read what he says, Not what others say (whom probably never read him much)
I do not hate gold nor do I think gold is a barbaric relic from the past. It has its role as a hedge against the unsound finance or government, but it is a person investment hedge, not legal tender money where government gets to dictate its value and confiscate it. I am concerned that TOO MUCH nonsense is spun around gold that feeds the beliefs of the choir, but it is PREVENTING normal investors from buying because they do not believe the hype. Preaching to the choir is not my style. We are supposed to be trying to figure out what makes the world tick. Some are like Marx trying to dictate to the world how it should function according to their belief. But if we hope to survive, knock off the bullshit!
http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/banks-manipulating-gold-people-v-banks-dow/
He wrote this back in January
2013 – A Snapshot of the Future Gold Array for 2013
"....That is by no means good at all. If these reversals are elected, look out below. We may have to clean house before gold can resume the uptrend...."
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013-a-snapshot-of-the-future-gold-array-for-2013/
Believe the hype? LOL, you mean the zero reading on gold bullish sentiment, GSR @ 64 and Gold/XAU @ 13.72?
I have no axe to grind with him but who the fuck is he kidding?
Yes, he saw the 1900 and the 1100. He is not a "It's Going UP ALL THE TIME" senseless fanatic, He watches the cycles. It should be near bottom now, then it's real long bull run thru 2020ish I think.
And I have the other side of that trade. Gold low is done, Siver moving much higher. By Sept. FOMC looking for a huge ramp. $1,450 and 25 for silver.
Lets see who makes it to the finish line Slaughterer.
bc this ramp isnt due to kito buying or egyptian conflict. Put me down in the slaughterer camp.
monopoly........Am wid ya partner on that one, besides bought me some select $huey miners intraday last week.
I think you're both wrong but I think monopoly will be closer to the truth
This price smackdown wouldn't surprise me in the least. What would though, is the idea that there will be any physical for sale at those prices.
Silver at $16? What a joke. I wish I could buy silver at $20.
Being short gold on the COMEX, does this look like a "crowded trade" or what?
hmm.. Comex.. short... gold...
that sounds pretty acccurate ..
Is all the bullish sentiment for miners just another example of victim worship?
Gold price? Or, price of gold?
That is the question.
Gold price = what you pay for a futures contract.
Price of gold = what you pay for an ounce of the real thing.
Two completely different markets, that are begining to disconnect.
Bullshit. Futures contracts are settled with the physical metal. The markets are the same, regardless of what ZeroHedge and other deniers say.
if you are hoping for actual bullion, you are going to have to clap three times and wish really hard. it ain't happening. cash settlements are the rule now. its a fantasy exchange.
According to the inventory and CME reports, total requested deliveries for June should have pretty much depleted the inventories. JPM was apparently short about 80,000 oz (at least in their Comex vaults). Things have been pretty quiet as far as how that all played out on Friday. According to CME those deliveries have to be made in the delivery month. Also, GLD's inventory's been falling at a fairly rapid pace, including losing 15 tons on the day that the Asian markets opened with that epic crash last week. But then strangely, although gold waterfalled down to < 1200, GLD inventory's been flat at 969.5 since that 15 ton drop. I find it pretty hard to believe that there was no selling of GLD into that massive collapse, so why no change in inventory? Or did they just forget to update the website?
clap three times and wish really hard...
maybe just click your heels.. and what color are those slippers?
i think you got your answer when the CME started posting that disclaimer about the validity of their inventory numbers. I would suspect that this is the same case with GLD....who knows what's left there....probably been looted by the "custodians"....but, whatever...its not like the regulators are ever going to do anything about it, or that the "custodians" feel at all obligated to report legit numbers.
so much of what goes on in this "market" is complete fantasy that I have moved completely and entirely to hard physical that I can buy and take off with me at purchase.
anything and everything else is complete joke......
and the dollar is fully backed by gold...
+1 Moody's and S&P Upgrade.
Okay smart ass!
Show me where you can buy an ounce of the real thing for the spot price?
When you find it, let us know. I for one will back up the truck.
Why on earth would anyone be able to buy A SINGLE OUNCE at spot price? That's ridiculous! Contracts are settled in bulk. They are traded in BULK. That means tens of thousands of ounces at a time. You obviously get a discount when you buy a lot of something.
Christ ZeroHedge is full of retards.
you are aware that the BULK purchasers you claim are getting this spot price are not paying anything near spot? I refer you to the vietnamese, indian, chinese and russian markets where the bulk purchasers who really want to get actual physical metals are nowing paying over 25% more than the Comex price. In Vietnam, it is 50% higher for bulk gold, silver that you can actually see, touch and hold.
You're going to need links if you make claims like that.
And you listen to the BlowHorn right?
it will be so much fun to watch as the big fart in the bathtub blows to the surface
Yes, because people in Asia sell everything online where it can be tracked for tax purposes.
I like your icon. I'm an anarcho-capitalist, too. And part of being a rational ancap is being able to smell bullshit a mile away. People who are pushing gold and silver right now are peddling bullshit. There will be massive deflation before there is hyperinflation. Bitcoin is the better bet, both in the short and long term.
"Bullshit. Futures contracts are settled with the physical metal." -- spyker
Here you go. Educate yourself.
KWN: Andrew Maguire, 29 June 13
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/6/29_Andrew_Maguire_files/Andrew%20Maguire%206%3A29%3A2013.mp3
bullshit. For years reports have been that delivery is denied, cash is insisted upon & you can sue if you don't like that outcome. There's more contracts due for delivery than gold is available. Period.
If that's actually the case, then why don't JPM and other large banks just buy a bunch of PM contracts on the open market and demand settlement in the physical metal?
It would be a guaranteed instant return on investment.
Oh. They don't do that because what you're saying is bullshit.
They do and they have. They use long & short to do this. Harvey Organ reports this regularly.
Buy low and sell high..http://tinyurl.com/pp588mj
i hope it goes to zero. these articles are what i have feared would be coming.
I hope that too. With my $1 I could then buy an infinity of ounces.
dont be a buzzkill fonz........the kito bottom was in.............................
monopoly and kito, do yourself a favor, get rid of all of your guns until Sept. FOMC. It might be very dangerous having them around when PMs resume their drop into Sept. FOMC. The Oppenheimer call is a senseless technical call--no better than Turd's. What fundamental catalyst is there here?
as a staunch 2nd amendment advocate, i will not get rid of my guns ;)....secondly, i bought phyzzzz, so im holding and will only add if it drops below my purchase last week..................................as far as fundamentals, quite frankly, i didnt see what fundamentals could drop gold so far and keep stocks levitated.........i will hold my guns and gold as my hedge ...........but i appreciate the sentiment.......
Gold - neglected, mistreated.....free to good home.
Damn squiggley lines are killing me.
I'd hardly call flat to lower for 10 years in gold stocks euphoria.
OT: OBama to release strategic oil reserves before 4th July.
A pointless gesture...
...a better one would be Americans deciding to release Obama from office...
...nothing but disappointment wherever you look...
(sigh)
he's roughly about as popular as bush was at this point in his second term.
Cool, That sould save us like 5 cents a gal
poor little ducklings, releasing SPR isn't meant to lower gasoline prices its meant to protect crude oil's asset value. what happens if Chevrons assets are cut in half (hint housing would follow, and what happens if housing assets fall in half. bennie loses that shit eatn grin of his)
One of these days that sucker's gonna get emptied by whoever the Charlatan in Chief is at the time.
Don't agree, just sayin'.
I don't see it happening. There is no gas shortage.
Everyone is looking for a store of wealth...safety...and with AAPL down 40% ..Oracle tumbling...Blackberry a disaster....and Bonds collapsing.....looks like they are turning to the historic store of wealth in uncertain times.
those tubes of pre 65 quarters and dimes on my desktop still look the same to me.
Gold to 1360, then fall to 1200, then up to 1480, then down to 1280, then up to 1600
All by Mid November 2013.
gold up 25!! short squeeze bitchezzzz!!why didnt i take out a home equity loan and back up the truck!!!!! why??!??! why?!?!? why?!?!?
The stampede into DUST gave miners the 'dust-off', where a significant premium has been added onto a long strangle strategy applied to equity swap derivatives. Bias against miners is greater by far than against bullion.
Paper Gold is not the same thing as Physical Gold.
If I had a dollar for every time I read that on ZH I'd have 50 cents.
All that beginning-of-the-quarter money pouring into AAPL and GLD today: soon to be wiped out shortly. Tears will ensue.
I don't get why pm is regarded as the best place to put your money in on zerohedge. Gold and silver does have its merits but it doesn't create any value. It just sits in a vault somewhere. I would not want to have more than 10% of my wealth in precious metals.
Chief,
You have truly missed the point of being here then.
Here's a question for you: WHAT HAS COUNTERPARTY RISK AND WHAT DOESN'T?
It'll take a while, but do your research.
capitalism used to have something to do with accumulation..
it will again
"I don't get why pm is regarded as the best place to put your money in on zerohedge."
After reading ever single post on this site for 13 odd weeks, I feel I might be able to shed some light on the subject. It is because posters on this site have undertaken to fill every lake with PM. I cannot count how many times I have heard of boating accidents while transporting PMs. I am not sure why they cannot go around the lake, therefore they are filling the lake on purpose....
You are welcome...
I don't get why pm is regarded as the best place to put your money in on zerohedge. Gold and silver does have its merits but it doesn't create any value. It just sits in a vault somewhere. I would not want to have more than 10% of my wealth in precious metals.
perhaps you would prefer negative yield bonds? (coming to an auction near you) gold has the same deflation bias as TIP bonds, if you have a 20yr TIP your PRINCIPLE is guaranteed. that's all you need to know.
But paper and electronic digits on a computer do create value?
http://www.naturalnews.com/027474_colloidal_silver_antibiotics.html
http://www.newsrt.co.uk/news/vaccine-using-gold-dust-to-mimic-viruses-could-boost-the-immune-system-1873199.html
research: you fail.
Try again. Gold & silver are more than lumps of inert metal.
the price of gold is somewhat irrelevant to mining sector. demand is good and looking better. china and india, and americans who suddenly wake up feeling like they're in china or india because their leaders are either totalitarian dictators, or incompetent, or both. the miners can pass on their costs.
the risk is that the miners might go flat for a period of time while the rest of the market blows off. no market rally has ever sustained itself without gold following. gold stocks are soon bear market proof and some have dividends.
avoid the bullion, its signalling deflationary crash alert. that occurs when interest rates start to rise. bernanke is in the soup now.
I see the risks being
- For producers, the need to raise capital at depressed share prices to fund operations results in significant dilution to existing shareholders and generates a negative feedback loop in shareprice
- For explorers and junior development companies, inability to raise capital results in bankruptcy
So I don't see them as being 'flat' - I think they either need to catch a bid (by demonstrating some profitability, which will only happen with a rise in POG, unless input costs suddenly fall) or they'll drop until most of the junior sector goes out of business as happened in the late 90's.
But we haven't had a blowoff top in the miners which is the norm for gold bull markets, so my bet is that after the paper gold market finishes dying, and then real demand and lack of supply causes the price of gold in the physical market to rise (on supply shortage) the retail buying community is going to be back to having the miners as their only way to play in the gold market and that's what will drive the recovery (and eventual blow-off top) in the sector. How long until that happens (if it does - if it gets there before they all go broke) - I have no idea.
bull markets always climb a wall of worry. demand is almost entirely psychological, but you can divide that into those who hide their gold, and consumers who display their gold. now central banks have been the misers, and there are multiple layers of leverage on gold held in CB bank vaults, like fractional reserve banking. those have to be unwound.
if the juniors get in trouble there will be wave of M&A, credit is still cheap on wall street (yes credit is in a delflationary market) as monetary blowback sweeps the statists out, gold reserves in the ground will count just as oil reserves count. (problem with oil is that per capita demand is falling - but note that many countries are now building their own SPR storage systems, which places an artificial demand on oil - extrapolate to gold)
SA could be a major play, their reserves are still good. (you didn't think obama was there to hold mandelas hand did you?)
i can see, but its ten years down the road when wall street trades in nanoseconds. and there is no hurry to buy this dip, and so no one is, which is even more disconcerting. we are all pavlovian traders trained to buy the V shaped dip, what has that ever gotten anyone?
"Delivery of the physical" Some clerk might wander down to the vault with a clipboard for a shipment going out or coming in, but I suspect most of the time some one just enters a record on a keyboard that x amount of lot Y now belongs to to Z. If you look at a prospectus for even a fund that is supposed to invest in the physical, they state the only thing they know is what is stamped on the bars and what is on the paperwork, they don't do any spot analysis of the physical,in other words you could have gold plated tungsten or even chocolate down there.
Certain bullion banks have been noticed to get kind of sweaty and slow when it comes time to move out large physical quantities for actual out of bank delivery to a large customer like a foreign country or a big pension fund that wants actual delivery.
"What is good in life?" "To drive your enemies before you, crush them, and hear the lamentations of their bankers."
May the barbarian rule!
Beats the shit out of some "refined" noble guy who has NO honor, will lie, cheat and steal from you, and if your dead, then do the same to your wife.
And have said it 100 times. Unless you are really good, or really stupid, shorting these broken markets is a waste of time....for now. Of course that did not apply to our gold, silver and miners. That was an awesome short for a good while. I know because I was and am long all of them.
But, at some point, shorts will be the play of the decade. But not yet.
Honestly, the only short I have liked since the QE era began is VXX short (via puts on the LEAPS). I am confident that will continue to be a steaming pile of shit from now until delisting, should people finally catch on. Pretty easy to neutralize the position via corresponding OTM SPY puts, same expiry.
long tungsten
i can only imagine what some of the converstations were like between miners and their banks this past week.
What the hell kind of trendlines are those?
No way. Continue to stay away.
"The "despair" relating to gold now is as palpable as "euphoria" then.""
Hmmm, when I looked at my little pile of silver this morning, I didn't feel any despair. Is there something wrong with me??
Central banks will suff themself with gold any time soon!
Get the juicing machine out and squeeze those shorts like a ripe orange.
They shook the tree. Now it's time to run it back up and squeeze the life out of the shorts. Business as usual......
Reminds me of Ren and Stimpy cartoons in college....
"IT'S LOG, IT'S LOG, IT'S BIG, IT'S HEAVY IT'S WOOD......IT'S LOG, IT'S LOG, IT'S BETTER THAN BAD IT'S GOOD!"
we're very close to my best indicator XAU divided by INDU. in 96 XAU diverged from INDU and fell into the low to mid 40s, while the stock market went up, stretching the ratio to about .0045. the XAU divergence led the INDU decline by four years, but it was a doozy. the same ratio turned up in 2002 and preceded the war in Iraq and the market rally.
the ratio recently bottomed at .0056, which is close enough. the XAU is the preferred chart because it has history, and not as much volatility due to retail buying and the emotional swings. all the experts like to chart gold to equity market, but thats apples and oranges. compare stocks to stocks.
the impication here is not that gold mining stocks should go up anyt ime soon, but the equity market will have to drop before that happens, still things now happen much faster, so we just have to see.
i intend to watch the ratio for a significant bottom. if the market can trade sideways off that bottom then we should be okay. you could still buy at a higher ratio. the problem with a two variable ratio is that there are infinite possibilities. both gold stocks and equities could rise, or fall in tandem, while the ratio remains the same. still there are limits, get out your calculator and see for yourself.
G*** B*****!
Yep, cover those short Slingers. Here is what they are dealing with.
http://winteractionables.com/?p=3959
somehow covering shorts has turned into buyign gold?
not the first time ZH has suggested buying gold?
what does roubini say?
u must be kidding?? buy mortimer buy!!! back up the truck??? this ought to be good!
GDXJ reverse split.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-05/jpmorgan-parts-another-21000-ounces-gold-holdings-drop-new-record-low
767K ounces on June 5th for the Morgue. As of June 27th, they're down to 550K. Tracking perfectly to run the fuck out in September.
Just looking at it in an almost contrarian way... almost everything has gone up in the market, but what has reversed and gone extremely negative? Gold, materials, and generally interest rate sensitives...
Gold is getting CRUSHED