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"Crise Politica": Live Webcast Of Portuguese PM Coelho Address

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so, in two short days, Portugal has gone from a "poster child" of European periphery success to a full blown "Crise Politica." In moments, the country's PM Coelho will address the nation and while he is not expected to announced his resignation, according to local media he will announce a vote of confidence in parliament to test his majority. Even so, now that his coalition is blown, it is unlikely he will have a comfortable majority and the country will see early elections adding even more uncertainty to a continent where Greece is also on the rocks, and where Italy and Spain (despite the now blatant data manipulation) are constantly on the edge. Of course, to those who listened to our short EURUSD call in the aftermath of the latest Stolper reco, congrats: 100 pips in 24 hours beats a fausterity stick in the eye.

Live stream after the jump.

Summary of his speech:

  • PORTUGUESE PRIME MINISTER PASSOS COELHO SPEAKS IN LISBON
  • COELHO SAYS HE DIDN'T ASK THE PRESIDENT TO DISMISS PORTAS
  • COELHO SAYS THERE IS A LOT OF WORK TO DO
  • COELHO SAYS POLITICAL INSTABILITY WOULD LEAD TO SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES
  • PORTUGAL'S COELHO SAYS DIFFERENCES CAN BE OVERCOME
  • COELHO SAYS WILL BE AT MEETING IN BERLIN TOMORROW
  • COELHO DID NOT ACCEPT RESIGNATION OF FOREIGN MINISTER 
  • PORTUGAL'S PM SAYS HE WILL MEET WITH COALITION PARTNER CDS
  • COELHO SAYS WILL NOT RESIGN

In short, nothing shocking. It is unclear how he can fix the relationship with the coalition partner, or what not accepting the resignation of the foreign minister means. We will find out very soon.

 

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Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:16 | 3714876 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

this is a global party -- everyone is having fun

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 16:20 | 3715112 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

What?

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 20:13 | 3715943 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Everybody Wang Chung tonite!"

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:20 | 3714889 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's awesome watching the S&P being steered into the green while the world starts to explode.

what a goof. 

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 16:21 | 3715114 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

It's like getting comped into a better stateroom on the Titanic

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:20 | 3714893 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Go to Hell Stolper sh*t!!!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:23 | 3714904 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The USA dirty shirt is looking better and better. This is fun being the locomotive again as we pull the other countries from their economic malaise. Portugal falling apart lifted the S&P 4 points. What New Normal?

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:23 | 3714905 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Sounds like what they did in Greece.  They will all vote for him, showing massive confidence, then the EUR will rise for a bit, then fall.  Lather, Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 20:15 | 3715952 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Being voted to bell the cat, what could go wrong?

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:24 | 3714906 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

A lot of work to do? That's an understatement.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:29 | 3714929 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Just remember this. The USA will push the stock markets to a new high and then when the shit hits the fan they will crystallise that gain for appearances by closing the market on the basis of some lame excuse.

Europe is a piece of toast that is now doing overtime in a toaster.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:34 | 3714943 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Who cares? Remember, there will be september 22nd and more important, Superdraghimario want's to enjoy a quiet ferragosto. Move along! Quiet days in Euroland, summertime. The real heat is in Mursiland, watchout! Bibi and obummer are drawing the lines.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:38 | 3714961 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I can't tell who is more drunk, the russian chick this morning, or Bartiroma right now.

 

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:47 | 3714997 espirit
espirit's picture

Bartaroma is just punch drunk from being pounded by the grip guys day and night.

Lack of sleep, eh?

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:43 | 3714981 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Tudo bom! BTFD!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:49 | 3714996 Acet
Acet's picture

All I can say as a Portuguese is:

FINALLY!

Hope this government falls. There's no bigger bunch of buddy-protecting, politician/fat-cat priviledge defending, incompetent and sold-out to foreign interests politicians as these guys.

Mind you, just like in the US, due to the absence of true democracy (i.e. vote is not proportional), the other large party that alternates with this one (which is not the coalition partner that just left) is just as bad, though at least in Portugal there are 3 other meaningfull parties (though thanks to the twisted, corrupt voting rules in Portugal, these parties have half as many parliementaries as their voting percentage would give them under proportional voting rules).

PS: By the way, the Finance Minister that just resigned is ex-Goldman Sachs.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 18:22 | 3715540 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

As a Portuguese, I support this message, just adding pretty much the whole remainder of the political spectrum to the above, although you're wrong in the voting: vote is proportional, though (rightfully) skewed against higher density areas.

Also, where did you got that Gaspar is ex-GS: http://www.iep.lisboa.ucp.pt/resources/Documentos/Instituto/Corpo%20Doce...

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 05:23 | 3716983 Acet
Acet's picture

The voting system in Portugal is not proportional, it's based on electoral circles.

Electoral circles is a system designed to create "stability" by creating a political duopoly where the top 2 parties get far more representatives than their percentage of the vote (the top party getting an absolute majority with less than 40% of votes is common).

The way this is done is by assigning representatives only to the parties with the top vote in an area (eelectoral circle). Thus a small party with a widepread voter base can have 10% or more of countrywide votes and yet still get no representatives since they didn't cross the threshold to get a representative in any of the electoral circles.

Real Proportional Vote means all votes are equal no matter who you vote for and where you live. I would say that real Democracy is not about being able to vote (plenty of dictatorships have "elections"), it's about everybody having an equal say in how the country is run, and you can't have an equal say if your vote is worth less than that of others.

For an example of Proportional Vote, check Holland.

(I lived in Holland many years and their lower levels of corruption are also very much due to there being no political duopoly, since proportional vote makes for far more fluid and flexible politics with far less rot and stagnation. I've moved to the UK - which like Portugal also has electoral circles - later and I can tell you that here in the UK politics is about as corrupt as in Portugal).

 

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 14:06 | 3718863 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

You're oversimplifying it - circles are needed when a single circle is just not feasible or even detrimental to the very representation (eg: size, geography (islands...)/orography, demographics, social/cultural specifics, etc.), that's why pretty much everywhere, besides small city-like states, voting is based in electoral circles; conversion of votes to seats can be made according to different proportional methods (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party-list_proportional_representation), each with its own pros and cons, depending on specifics (fragmentation/concentration) - Portugal apparently uses d'Hondt.

In Portugal, for instance, 50% of the population lives in and around the two main cities and 80+% in the 300x50 Km stretch in, around and between both, along the coastline - a single circle would mean an even more macrocephalic country with no representation whatsoever elsewhere (the islands or expats, specially) - not that anyone is actually represented (except maybe the islands, but just thanks to political/financial autonomy), but that's due to the hijacking of elections by parties' hierarchies: no independent candidates and closed lists (you vote for the whole list, not individual candidates).

"low level of corruption" is a myth - low level of apparent/frown upon, or just different means/victims of corruption is more appropriate...

Btw, politics in Holland (and Scandinavia, etc, etc.) is as much dual as pretty much everywhere else... coalitions of smaller, cohesive parties/no coalitions of bigger, factioned parties doesn't change things a bit.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 05:20 | 3720726 Acet
Acet's picture

Two things:

1) I disagree on the need for national level electoral voting counting system that boosts representativeness of anybody. Everybody should have an equal amount of power, which means all votes count the same. The only way to achieve this is full proportionality, where all votes for the entire of the country are counted and then parlimentary seats are assigned in equal proportion as the total voting percentage for each party.

The excuse of giving local representation in the national parliament is false as Portugal itself proves: with the notable exception of Madeira, every single parlimentary is loyal to their (national) party first and foremost and rarelly takes in account their region's interests.

Furthermore, the duopoly that is the natural result of a voting counting system such as the Portuguese one breeds corruption, cronyism and a separate "political class" made up of professional politicians which have no experience of the real world. It's that stability and certainty that political offices and direct or indirect power will always be available in those two parties that attracts (to those parties) the kinds of people that go into politics for personal gain rather than for ideological reasons, creating a buddy-buddy system ("i'll cover your ass now we're in government, you do the same for me when you get there, as you surelly will") and a patronage system ("i know you'll be in power in the next cycle, so i'll extend you some favours now"). Again, Portugal is a very good example of those: I'm old enough to remember how corruption and cronyism first boomed during the years of the first absolute majority (the first Cavaco government) after the 1974 revolution.

 

2) I lived in Holland for many years. It's not a dual party system by any strench at all. While there are two top parties - as Mathematics dictates, there's always 1st and 2nd - they change. Also they always have to rule in cohalitions, usually involving 3 or more parties. The result is that politics is far, far more consensual in Holland and parties do get really punished (to the point of going extinct) if they abuse their mandate. It's like night and day compared to Portugal.

Unsurprisingly, there is very little patronism and corruption in Dutch politics (certainly compared, to Portugal or the UK).

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 15:52 | 3715023 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Fuck, even I made off the Stolper fade! Thanks Tom you Muppet :)

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 16:13 | 3715095 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

PIIGS smell never goes away until they are slaughtered and thrown to the dawgs.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 16:35 | 3715150 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

This little PIIGGY Passos some stinky gassos.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 16:29 | 3715138 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Portuguese bankers looked across the sea and saw the Irish banker handed $35 billion....a  number they said, "was pulled out of their asses."

So the wise Portuguese bankers figure...."Hey, why shouldn't we get sum of that?"...and are pulling a crisis out of thier butts. Why not? It's Free!

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