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Guest Post: Our Energy Slaves Are In Recession
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
Charts of energy consumption are screaming "recession."
To get a feel for how many energy slaves you have, imagine hiring 40 people to drag you and your car down the street at 3 miles per hour. Replacing the energy in a gallon of gasoline with human labor is imperfect, of course, because the people you hire to drag your vehicle down the street cannot run 70 miles an hour.
The gallon (or four liters) of petrol will push your car about 25 to 30 miles at high speeds at a market cost of about $4. Imagine how much it would cost to pay 40 people to drag your 1.5-ton car 25 miles--a lot more than $4. (Weight of 2012 Ford Fusion: 3,285 pounds. Weight of 2012 Honda Civic: 2,765 pounds.)
You get the idea: every bit of fossil fuel you consume is the equivalent of an energy slave. Correspondent David P. (Market Daily Briefing) describes the concept thusly: "Your personal standard of living is derived (largely) from the number of energy slaves you have working for you." Energy Slaves - 5 charts
David kindly shared three of his five charts of energy consumption per capita (i.e. per person). This first is total energy consumption in the U.S. per capita.
The key takeaway here is how closely energy consumption tracks recession: notice how energy consumption cratered in the deep 1980-82 recession, and how it fell off a cliff in 2009, and has continued to weaken despite the official return of "growth."
Clearly, improved efficiency of transport, furnaces, electrical appliances, etc. leads to lower consumption while delivering the same output (miles driven, refrigeration, etc.). Just as clearly, higher efficiency cannot possibly account for the steep declines in recessionary periods. People use less energy because they have less money and are feeling less wealthy:
Next up: energy consumption in the residential household sector of the economy.While the downtrend since 2000 (lower highs and lower lows) could be attributed to improved efficiency, that cannot be the reason behind energy consumption's waterfall decline in 2011. That says one thing: recession.
How about the lifeblood of American life, transportation? Once again, the sharp decline in consumption says "recession." Consumption rose slightly in post-recession 2010, but then resumed its dramatic plunge:
Here is David's commentary on his charts. (The charts for the commercial and industrial sectors also show recessionary declines.)
Concept: personal standard of living is derived (largely) from the number of energy slaves you have working for you. Likewise, increasing or decreasing activity can be tracked by energy (slave) consumption in each sector.
The series are produced monthly by EIA that totals the energy consumption in the US in 4 sectors (Industry, Transport, Commercial, Residential) from all energy sources. They are a very seasonal noisy series, so we use a 12-point moving average to smooth things out. We then divide this by population to arrive at - energy slaves per person per year for each sector in BTU. The MA makes it lag a bit, but the series are so noisy you would likely not see anything interesting if you didn't have some sort of adjustment.
Industrial: 40% (per capita) drop since 1975 points at long-term deindustrialization
Residential: 12% (per capita) drop since 2008 points at real losses in standard of living
Transport: 14% (per capita) drop since 2008 - more standard of living losses
Over a longer time period an argument might be made for decreasing energy use based on increased efficiency. Over shorter timeframes - not so much. And if you look at all the sectors, things are all still trending down except residential.
Thank you, David. Other than a decline in the standard of living (otherwise known asrecession), what other dynamics could be in play? There are at least three, though their effects are on the margins of consumption:
1. Telecommuting/working remotely. Working at home eliminates commuting and many business meetings.
2. The "Brown Truck Store": purchasing goods online and having them delivered by UPS, USPS, etc. saves energy by consolidating delivery to the end buyer.
3. Generational shift away from private auto ownership. Gen Y is far more comfortable with car-sharing (ZipCar, City Car Share, etc.), i.e. the access not ownership model: having access to a private vehicle no longer requires the immense expense of owning a vehicle.
This generational shift may be one reason miles driven per person has been declining: (via Doug Short): Vehicle Miles Driven: Population-Adjusted Fractionally Off the Post-Crisis Low. Adjusting for population growth, total miles driven in the U.S. is back to the levels of 1995, almost two decades ago.
While there are many positives to declining energy consumption, the question is: does this reflect a better standard of living or a lesser standard of living? In terms of replacing the ownership model with the access model and replacing long commutes with remote work, the answer is "better." In terms of overall economic activity, these charts scream recession, i.e. a declining standard of living.
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Yes, those charts scream recession.
You don't need to buy nearly as much gas when you don't have a job to drive to and from.
Horses bitchez!
Oxen.
Oxen are for 'fields'...
Donkeys and mules.
Oxen are soft...
There were 1 billion ppl on earth in 1900ish. That was the cusp of oil's arrival to transport food fast (before it spoiled). That year there were 1 million ppl in NYC and 300,000 horses (required to haul in the 2.5 lbs of food each human needed each day, plus their own fodder).
The elimination of oil you would think would take the population back down from 7 billion to 1 billion, but it's far worse. The reason is the oxen.
Oxen are not a special breed of cattle. They are generic cattle trained from a very young age to haul stuff. But the problem is the genetics have changed. Cattle are bred in specialized form now. They require more calories than they used to because their bodies are different.
So whereas in the past you needed 1 acre of hay for every 2 acres of human crops (to traverse the winter for the oxen), now it's likely 1:1. You have to plant a LOT more hay than you used to in order to keep the oxen available next spring to plant food for humans.
This is not good. This is why oil scarcity will kill so many people.
Central banking will save us!
However we must make sure the bankers have the tools, resources, independence, and full faith and credit, to manage the difficult challenges ahead.
And thats why gas prices keep going up kids. See you all tomorrrow for our Native genocide American History classes.
This idea is imperfect; were it not for gasoline I would ride an expensive horse or take a carriage with attending footmen, instead of driving at 70mph by myself, and would consider myself well couched in the upper class. 70 mph would never once enter into my thoughts. And the pleebs would still take off their hats and bow as I passed on the road.
Our expectations are skewed. We cannot even talk about things without invoking all this technological magic.
Of course the biggest asymetry is that the ride up the curve of civilization is relatively pleasent. The ride back down the back-side will not mirror the front just in reverse.
It's going to be an absolute nightmare until we can get local economies re-sorted.
True. It's going to be jaw-dropping discontinuous at times...
prez o is wasting all the gas he can but it isn't enough
And taypayer's money!
How many gallons to make an ounce? YABBA DABBA DOO!
How many 'slaves' to substitute a gallon?...
this kind of slavery sucks- I don't even get an attractive negro mistress.
173.3, assuming US gallons.
The global energy per capita argument was championed by Richard Duncan (See "Olduvai Gorge Theory"). According to Duncan, we've been in a global decline since 1979.
Pretty chilling stuff: http://www.energycrisis.org/duncan/olduvai2000.htm
The linked abstract starts with this tasty quote from Dr. Collapse himself, Joseph Tainter:
"Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. Joseph A. Tainter, 1988"
Yep....
And Tainter is so warm and fuzzy, not to mention dead on in many of his observation...
Hey the way I see it, Kurzweil is waiting for the Matrix to save us, he will be deeply disappointed. As Tainter stated you get into trouble when marginal gains in complexity vanish at the cost of real resources. Addressing complex issues with more complex solutions is fraught with peril...
I agree.
A few years back I saw a round table discussion on some show about our likely future that included M. Ruppert, Kuntsler, some Kurzwiel devotee, some food guy, and a few others - it was kindof funny to watch. The tech guys just couldn't understand the peak oil guys.
They're called (techno-)cornucopians. There's no need to take them seriously until/unless someone sustainably solves the problem of feeding billions with virtually no oil.
my favorite analogy is still 30 billion slaves working around the clock. We are now beginning to substitute (back) for the crude
Hey honey, grab the keys and the whip. We're going for a drive!
Sen. Barack Obama's answer to meeting energy demands| 2008
Typical egotistical response of a sociopath: Lots of hot air works for me; it should work for you...
or simply put: chineese finally learnt to produce more energy-efficient products
You do realize the US doesn't drive Chinese cars?
And futures have WTI at $100.32 this moment.
These charts scream "The American Dream is dying".
Those charts scream peak oil and globalization....
With zero credibility any info coming from the us government , banks wallstreet israel mainstreet media , the fed, ext ext , people just live the lifes they want to and avoid any trouble to live a peaceful life, ,, and that includes driving less to avoid those pesty fines while on the road for doing nothing wrong.
But its clear the 1 trillion +the government pumps in to the economie is not going to the people to restart the economie , but a reset for the usa is coming ,and I am not talking peaceful.
I've been reducing energy slaves without lowering my family's standard of living.
LED monitors and energy efficent computers, LED bulbs, LED TV, solar landscape lights. I used to commute 1 hr each way. Now work 5 minutes from home.
What I have found with utilities, as coal gets cheaper and water has no reason to change much that I am aware of, 25% or 30% rate increases are probably tied to funding retirement promises that should never have been made. I will continue to conserve rather than pay the full increase.
Replaced rope lights just last night. The string was drawing 240 watts. The new LED string draws 31.5. If you have not looked at LED since they came out as harsh industrial-like lights years ago, check into them again. My electricity supplier, AEP, pushes CFL when LED provides a much larger energy usage reduction, lower temps, and no mercury content.
From my experience, the typical family can, over time (this has been a three year process), cut energy and utility consumption by nearly one third without lowering their standard of living. Equating energy consumption to standard of living as the article does is a little too simplistic.
Utilities have been responding to conservation by increasing fees such as the sewer connection charge that is now nearly 30% of the entire bill. This is for a connection that has cost them nearly zero since installation in 1981. It will take a consumer backlash to stop these end-run transfers of expenses that management should have had under control years ago. But hey, it counts toward GDP so it's not going to get attention at the federal level.
don't worry- the jump in US fuel efficiency that results in a big drop in gas tax revenue just means you will soon be taxed on miles driven so that the assholes got you coming and going.
Fuck it, I can run faster than 70mph if the Boston PD is looking for me after I cooked a head of broccoli in a strange looking pot.
Edit: Almost forgot... if they blow my legs off please have a cowboy and a wheelchair standing by. I promise not bleed all over them.
grow some food outside your door - huge energy savings and you hurt Monsanto too..while doing the opposite for your health
We all know Monsanto is a menace to the Human race; thus, I don't get why someone doesn't just kill Monsanto. After all, the "Supremes" have declared it a person...
Lock and load.
Amen. My grid-connect monthly connection (billing) charge for electricity is now ~25% of my entire bill. Same basic problem as you have, efficiency increases on the consumer end being negated by "fee fees" on the part of the utility companies.
When the carbon crap kicks in and another 5 million people go on unemployment benefits "power bills will neccessarily skyrocket" (sorry Obama, used your quote) the economy will really start humming along.
According to some historians, fossil fuels were the reason slavery was eliminated. It had nothing to do with rise of compassion, or evolution in ethics. Human slaves simply became non economically viable. Sheltering and feeding them was too expensive for the little amount of work that they did.
Robert Newman (one of such historians) has a satirical series called "History of the world backwards". In it the moment people stop using oil they miraculously re-discover the value of human slaves. He puts them into a category called "cheap energy". He says that societies vanish when their strategies for energy capture and conservation become subject to the law of diminishing returns.
The transition is gradual. It is quite possible that along the way we do discover a viable new energy resource, or improve efficiency making decline sustainable and bearable.
There is a also possibility that we simply revert back to the old style of living, only keeping some of the discoveries made throughout the last 2 centuries - the ones that make the slaves work better (Guns, Drones and Propaganda).
Maybe some places worldwide, but the Civil War was in the 1860's and the industrial revolution was about 1880. Common internal combustion farm machinery did not proliferate until the early 1900s.
Not every place followed the same template. The Civil War had its own economic factors. Amnesty was offered to slaves in exchange for service only after the currency with which the campaign was financed had been devalued. Elimination of slavery wasn't at all a priority, but rather an unintended consequence... and even when it was eliminated on paper, it still took more than a century to actually implement equality and erase racial prejudice.
Industrial revolution also took years to unfold and wasn't synchronous. Say, if someone started using steam powered machines to work sugar cane plantations and then exported the product for less, it would drive a competing slave owner out of business. He'd be forced to get rid of his slaves, even withough experiencing so-called "revolution" first hand.
Historically, every country only got rid of slaves for economic reasons. It was always about money and never about the people. Capitalism, even in its infancy, made it possible for the imperial nations to "outsource" their slave labor, much like we do with China, Indonesia and other countries today. Just because Britain put down its whip ahead of America, didn't mean it stopped doing business with those who didn't.
The industrial revolition was well under way in the US, especially the northern states, prior to 1850. By 1860 you have steam power, railroads, telegraphy, textile mills, factory-made shirts, shoes, and coats, wire nails, kerosene lamps, precision toolmaking, and interchangeable part arms production, just to name a few.
In Britain, where the industrial revolution started earlier, slavery dissappeared earlier.
Check out this nice house on an 8 acre lot for $115,000. Why so cheap? Amish. No electric, no plumbing .... prepping since 1693. Can hardly see the carbon footprints, though those of the Belgian pulling horses are very clear.
Cutting your own firewood on your own property to burn for warmth will become illegal under Agenda 21. That smoke is bad, um-kay? The transformation of America compliments of the puppet man, Barry and company will come and put out your fire.
I had lunch with my cousin and uncle the other day. I mentioned that I had been to Monticello recently and what a great place it was and how Jefferson had written the Declaration of Independence at 33 in addition to all of his other achievements. I lamented that I'm 39 and not quite as accomplished. I added that he did have the benefit of 160 and quickly added that I have probably have the energy equivalent working for me if not more which should afford me the free time to pursue the activities of a renaissance man.
Problem is society (including myself) took all of that free time and monetized it to the benefit of my mortgage holder. Society has really squandered a chance at something great. I hope we revert to some of the old ways and retain some of the advances that made life a little better.
Industrialized hemp would greatly assist if not fulfill our energy needs. However as one follows the money, the weed is so easy to grow that anyone can do it and therefore the powers to be are no longer needed.
There are a few left wing folks out there who claim that electric cars are why per capita consumption has declined.
It has not yet occurred to them to pick up a calculator and compare what a mere 6000 electric cars means to 270 million overall cars, not to mention large trucks, bulldozers, ships and airplanes.
I gave my Mercedes away in 2010, and have been riding a bicycle since. The savings is going into stacking PM...
a bike is healtier anyway. :p no gas, better for mother nature and do some free workout :P
The problem with the bike is healthier concept is that shipped beef from stockyards to NYC restaurants require 1) enroute refrigeration and 2) speed.
Pre oil, "cattle cars" sent beef to the east coast from the stockyards. The problem with that is 60% of the mass of a live steer is inedible.
Don't ever think there is a way around this. Oil defines civilization and as it gets scarce, joules-expensive and short, the planet won't support 7 Billion anymore. The portion of the 7 Billion it will support won't be in the US.
The so-called "standard of living" is a pure bullshit term because it never considers the massive amount of ill-effects of modern life.
It would take less energy to dig your own oil well with a shovel than it would to force the lazy sob's around here to work.
I believe the notion of the energy slave originated with a guy named Colin Cambell some years ago, but I can't find the source of the quote:
"Today's energy supplies provide the equivalent of the work of 22 billion slaves." -Colin Campbell
Lot of good articles on this vein at The Energy Bulletin and The Oil Drum. Worth a ready.
The only slaves on this plantation are the ones paying the manipulated prices. They fix Libor, they fix interbank rates, they fix you name it. THEY FIX GASOLINE PRICES! HEY YOU GOT A SPY APARATUS, USE IT! I PAID FOR IT. USE IT FOR MY BENEFIT!!!!
Oh yeah, I cut my home energy costs almost by half by letting temps swing more -- now at home if the low is above 55 (and below 70) and the high is below 85, I leave my windows open, whereas before I would have just left it all sealed and air conditioned. Why? It was getting too expensive. I've seen a lot of people younger than me who simply forego A/C entirely as an unafordable luxury (usually whatever place they are renting HAS it, they just never use it due to the power bill.)
I'm seeing a lot of this -- even data centers now let temps swing around, whereas traditionally they'd be run at a flat 68-72 degrees.
Bucky Fuller invented the idea of "enery slave".