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Market Turmoiling As USDJPY Spikes Above 100, EURUSD Slammed Below 1.30

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As noted earlier today, when we lamented that DE Shaw's correlation algos had switched from the AUD carry pair to the EURUSD as the funding currency pair of choice, moments ago the blast off by the USDJPY to over 100 for the first time since June 5 did absolutely nothing to help ES which in fact has tumbled for the simple reason that as the USDJPY goes up, so the EURUSD go lower. Of course, all those who read our prediction yesterday following the latest Tom Stolper note, would be quite a bit richer right now.

To wit:

"Trading FX without a Tom Stolper reco to fade is complicated: there is always the risk of losing money. Luckily, that risk is now gone and for all those unsure which pair to short, the man with the 0.001 batting average has just come out with his latest piece of muppet-slaying "research", according to which it is now time to go long the EURUSD, with a 1.35 target and a 1.28 stop loss. You know what to do."

Thanks for the 60 pips, and counting, Tom - we can always rely on you. Expect the 1.3000 support to be broken any second now.

End result, as the USDJPY is soaring alongside the 10Y yield, while the EURUSD is tumbling and so are stock futures.

 

and precious metals are in morning smackdown mode as the USD surges...

 


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Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:43 | Link to Comment Midasking
Midasking's picture

Hard to decide which one of these worthless pieces of paper is worth the most. http://tinyurl.com/pp588mj

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:52 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

hey hey hey stopler....done it again. 

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:43 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Thank god for the bad news, I really needed this!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:50 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just checked my sock drawer.......zero drama.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:03 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Shit I just found some pot in my sock drawer...Nice!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:09 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I just checked my pot stash & found my socks...

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

wankers

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

What are socks?

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Socks are what squirreleo wears to avoid the halks looming above.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:45 | Link to Comment konputa
konputa's picture

Stolper EUR/USD short for the muppet win!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

There is your answer to the "taper". There was never any tapering happening. The 10yr had moved up to around 2.2% from 1.6ish because of Japan. The extra 30bps came from Bernanke's comments. These other fed guys can try to talk the balls off a rhinocerous, but that 10yr is staying put. If the yen and the jgb market starts to go to shit, the 10yr will keep climbing. If the fed pushes out good data, the 10yr is climbing. If you want the 10yr back at 2% you need the dow several thousand points lower. End of story.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:54 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Fonz

There is no more explanations by calculations that makes sense any longer.

 

This is all simply a multystorey building with an internally installed bomb, whose trigger is held at the White House.

 

Numbers are over.

Politics is in.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

aren't things so clear in retrospect, until they change again. wonder what the new fed chief will have to say.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:08 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

That is a great point Derek. I agree with ekm as well. There is one thing marching higher again today and that is crude. To me, that dictates everything.

There will be a turning point Derek. There is one thing I know for sure and it is that the masses will get stuck with the bill. One day we will go from QE and Zirp 4eva straight to the next black hole.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

other than treasuries we can only surmise since debt trades inside the bank and between Governments. obviously this is full fledged panic with only the USA even pondering the idea of exit (didn't think they had it in them actually). everyone else is "full on Japanese." Uber Dollar is the call but the trade is still treasuries. again..I wouldn't give this more than six to eight weeks...(and no we are not trading this but we are long)...but I really fail to see how a multitude of factors aren't conspriring to ultimately drive those yields right back to where they came from. equities are still the interesting play of course. is this the storm before the calm or are we talking a precursor to something very dramatic. stay tuned.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment bustdrs
bustdrs's picture

Fonz, you've provided a large "don't argue" on this one.

PS. Waiting to see jp wriggle on its physical obligations.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:30 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

bustdrs I am all for someone providing me with anything showing that there has been any sort of taper being tested. I'd rather someone argue the point and shut me up with some proof. 

I believe the two moves were based on the two events that brought us here. I think Derek makes the more important point. We are going somewhere from here, and I sure as hell don't know where that is.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

There can't and won't be...  the FED is impotent to stop printing...  the only arrow in the quiver is to manipulate perception...  which means merely talking about doing something without doing it...  apparently, they still have credibility with some people.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

The only way that 10 yr is going down is if the US government makes major cuts in it's deficit. The DOW doesn't mean shit to the 10 yr.

 

Rates go up because people are not buying the 10 yr. That means no one trusts that the US government is going to be able to pay out on it's obligations in 10 yrs time. The writing is on the wall, and people should stop beating around bush and saying that it means something that it doesn't. The emperor has no clothes and the markets are starting to realize it.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Any day, any day now, this thing collapses at just one order from the White House, any day.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:02 | Link to Comment wolfnipplechips
wolfnipplechips's picture

That baffoon in the WH does what he's told. No, there are much more sinister hands at work here. They'll let this thing implode soon enough. They just haven't accumulated ALL the wealth yet. All in good time.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Roger that, I am holding onto my short positions (while believing the recent correction is over and nothing significant will happen in coming weeks).

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

These moves are tiny with low volume. After the bounce we just had, what's the big deal?

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

This is shaping up as a good day to go fishing.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:01 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I was thinking golf, myself.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Every day is a good day for fishing...

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Gun shop and then the range

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Here I was just going to take a nap and maybe have some fresh sun tea before a long bike ride this evening.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:50 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Citizens of the world kneel before the usa, the sole global superpower, and her mighty greenback, the king of all currencies! RELEASE THE KRAKKEN!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

No pushing or shoving.....we can print enough for all.

 

This was a small scare during the ink shortage of 2008....but we've got the kinks worked out there.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Debugas
Debugas's picture

now instead of ink they are running out of trees you know

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:54 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Can William do a picture of Stolper as the Muppetslayer?

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Bitcoin ETF was a signal that we may have reached peaked yield reaching in this cycle.  Down she goes.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:33 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

When people try to create wealth on others trying to create wealth based on the idea that wealth can be fabricated without work and materials, then you know there's a disease of idiocy and sharks in the water.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:01 | Link to Comment LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Went killing muppets last night with Goldman, Stolper, and all the others at zero hedge. Thanks for the tip!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

The 8AM smack down is back.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:12 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

I do not think the smack down in gold, silver will last this time. I do believe we have a long term trend change. Patience all, patience.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, that certainly escalated quickly.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Watch closely when the US$ gains strength while everyone else is falling down...watch for Bernank to publicly declare this is a validation of the policies and course of Fed actions...watch, then for all hell to break loose as the US joins the descent into hell.

No Man Is An Island

No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were:
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind,
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.

John Donne
Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:27 | Link to Comment TwoHoot
TwoHoot's picture

Round 2 in the great Japanese savings repatiation -  Sell US Treasuries to get Dollars, Sell Dollars (Buy Yen), Print Yen (devalue) to keep the Yen cheap and preserve export levels.

They will keep doing this until all the Dollars are yen and back in Japan. Then they can return to something like a normal Central Bank Policy - maybe.

Bernanke has a lot of bonds to buy. You ain't seen nothing yet!

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

very well put.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

so far my projection posted here at ZH a couple days ago is on track.  some tickling and finger fucking of the 1620ish zone but no breakout yet from there into full on penetration.  if she can't do that AND get above 1660 then quite likely a swift decline over a couple weeks to 1340-1350. 

 

that said a trip to 1560 presents a typcal opportunity for some type of bailout/scam and/or major jawboning to take place.  1560 breaks and it's on . . . . . . . . so that is where the whores go into major PPT and intervention mode.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

much ado about nothing

theatrics from ZH

 

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Satan
Satan's picture

To be fair to Tommy the Muppet Slayer, his stop is at 1.28

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment NipponMarketBlog
NipponMarketBlog's picture

 

 

Between the bad ISM (which is 'good' in QE world) and the lower Yen, the Nikkei could pop here just on a short squeeze....

 

http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Eahudimac
Eahudimac's picture

I'm starting to think that this really is the new normal and that this is just how it is going to be from now on. How in the hell they've managed to keep this 10 lb of shit economy in a 5 lb bag is beyond me. I got burned in 2008, I bought the VIX at 26 thinking that it was just a matter of time until it all comes crashing down, and I got burned there. I'm holding it. The loss I would take does not make it worth selling. Since that time, I've bought two things - gold and guns. I'm starting to think maybe rejoining the herd is the way to go. You know, not giving a shit about anything except football and porn. Maybe start watching TV again. Being informed just leads to endless and growing frustration. I'm tired of watching the police state run amok, the bankers getting away with theft and politicians with blood on their hands who are selling out the country every day. When is it time to just say fuck it, get an SNAP card, an Obamaphone, a meth addition and a disability check, and sit on my ass and drink myself to death? Sounds like a much better way to live than where we seem to be heading.

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Those are some.....god damned....expert ski slopes.....or

 

...some asinine "current market conditions".....

I'll go for my poles....

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 11:23 | Link to Comment JDFX
JDFX's picture

Market turmoil ?  I went long 99.66 today and still am at ' this '  time.  This is normal intra day moves. 

The markets wringing the necks of the sub 100 shorts eh ?  Fancy all the trading desks raking in the chips , who'd of thought that.....

 

:) 

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 04:16 | Link to Comment JDFX
JDFX's picture

Yen Xplodes below 100.50  . Tanks hard back down through 100.00

 

It all seems so chaotic . Nice !   :)

Tue, 07/02/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Golden_Rule
Golden_Rule's picture

nice wedge forming on the 10 year yeild.  I hope this bitch explodes higher.

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