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The 6th Longest Bull Market In History

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From the lows in March 2009, the S&P 500's 4.3 year rally is now the 6th longest of the 24 bull markets of the last 113 years of data.

 

 

Interestingly, of those bull markets, the average performance has been +127.36% (over 3.16 years)- the current market's performance is +127.72%.

 

Charts: Barclays

 

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Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:07 | 3719554 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Sell, Sell, Sell!!!!!!!!

 

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:10 | 3719558 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@zorba

Well, make sure as hell you don't buy up here.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:14 | 3719570 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

Nah, fuck that noise dude. Cramer and Liesman told me this bull market has legs to keep running.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:07 | 3719700 French Frog
French Frog's picture

What would be interesting is to see the lines of the longest 8-10 bull runs on the scatter plot chart to see how they all behave over the years in comparison to the median/mean.

We might then have an idea if the current one has already seen its peak and it will move further and further away from the mean/median as time goes by (like the 2002 to 2007 or 1949 to 1956 runs) or if it is still to see its peak and it will end above the median/mean (like the 1982 to 1987 or 1990 to 2000 or 1921 to 1929 runs). If the latter turns out to be true, then we will go higher, much higher.

Just a thought: if the author could do that, it would be nice.

Cheers

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:50 | 3719810 Piranha
Piranha's picture

agree, on cnbc we hear this is the BEGINNING of a bull market

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:05 | 3719695 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Happy 4th of July, bitchez!

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:27 | 3719753 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

BULLshit maybe.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:15 | 3719563 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"the current market's performance is +127.72%."

~~~

Gold, despite the recent poleaxeing... is up 50% [denominated in BLUEBUX], over the same timeframe... The most recent 'BLUEBUX' denominated peak was about 125%...

Yeah ~ no manipulation going on here... Hello '999' S&P...

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:23 | 3719600 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

But, but, the confetti is green?

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:22 | 3719593 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

This is like a Lance Armstrong victory. It should be astericted so bad it is stricken from the record books.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:24 | 3719606 max2205
max2205's picture

Like Lance, this can only do this by doping,  or QEing

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:37 | 3719769 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah Lance...

~Love, Mata

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSqFOalLgaM

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:22 | 3719595 max2205
max2205's picture

Back up the truck bichezzzzs

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:22 | 3719596 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Also known as the longest dead-cat bounce in history.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:24 | 3719603 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I don't think it's a bounce, I think it was shot out of the printer.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:29 | 3719612 B2u
B2u's picture

Morsi can't go down after a year and the market can't go down either.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:31 | 3719617 kito
kito's picture

tyler can you run some numbers on this bull market and its correlation to ism, unemployment, corporate balance sheets/profits, interest rates, etc compared with previous bull runs correlations?? just to get an idea of how much of a disconnect there is with this bull market to the current economy vs previous bull markets................................

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:34 | 3719620 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

4 of the 5 bull markets that lasted longer than this one ended in spectacular crashes.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:23 | 3719749 Bear
Bear's picture

Music to my ears

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 17:53 | 3719656 NipponMarketBlog
NipponMarketBlog's picture

 

 

And have you got the stats on what happened next....?

 

 

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:08 | 3719704 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Those other bulls weren't force fed $85B a month with steroids and antibiotic supplements.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:09 | 3719706 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

In other words, the Bull is young and cheap!  Buy now or be priced out until <strike>the next market crash</strike> forever!

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:11 | 3719714 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Good to remember that the Dow Theory signaled a primary bear market on June 21, as explained here:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/06/after-dust-hast-settled-comme...

 

If we couple this primary bear market signal with a mature bull market spanning more than 4 years, we can conclude that the odds strongly favor lower prices ahead.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:19 | 3719735 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Those dates on the horizontal axis sure are helpful. Thank you Barclays.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:39 | 3719774 Argos
Argos's picture

My thoughts exactly Raker.  They would have flunked my class with that kind of work.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:19 | 3719738 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Ah, Bulls vs. Bears, quite different beasts.  Bears at least have the common decency to shit in the woods, under cover of trees, where the biodegradable matter helps future plant growth.  Bulls, by contrast, defecate publicly in packed stadiums, while being maligned and taunted, with experts hurling barbs and trying to kill them off, not quickly, but instead milking it for sport, waving red capes for effect, while risking being gored trying to muffle their impact.  It's no surprise, then, that bear markets are shorter in duration, more violent and stealthy, dropping faster, but not farther, than protracted, drama-filled bull runs. 

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 21:53 | 3720332 asteroids
asteroids's picture

"Bulls make money. Bears get slaughtered, Bulls make money like pigs" Hey, it's the new normal. Thanks FED.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:22 | 3719746 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

S&P500 weekly turned down in mid-May and we are into lower lows and lower highs, but we saw this in Sep 2012.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-closes-1-index-bought/

 

We need a close below 1530 to confirm - still about 100 points away.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:40 | 3719780 Bear
Bear's picture

This is pure Bull

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 18:45 | 3719790 adr
adr's picture

Like a tree falling in the woods, can it be called a bull market if nobody participated?

Also, I wonder if previous bull markets had one day of the week that could be pulled out to remove 50% of the gains.

If you removed Wednesdays from each week of the 2002-2006 market, would it have dropped in half?

The previous bulls also didn't have POMOs and a couple primary dealers buying up every stock.

So biggest bullshit market of all time? Yes. Undeniably yes.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 19:04 | 3719841 JFKFC
JFKFC's picture

Buy The Fucking Rip!!!

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 19:04 | 3719842 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

Longest BULLSHIT mkt in history.....I refuse to play

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 20:08 | 3720103 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Let's look at the ralley's and break them down... None of the previous ralleys have had a 20+ TRILLION dollar liquidy injection, Never has the FED MONETIZED the debt to the tune of 3 TRILLION!!! You might just as well be at a magic show in Vegas to Justify this ralley. Unfortunately, payback is a bitch... BITCHEZ

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 20:27 | 3720147 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

this ''bull'' (literally what it is, fucking bull) market pisses me off the most.

i can live with a market that goes up based on things being overhyped, such as the .com bubble, when people thought all those companies were going to be the next big thing, fine, whatever.

 

this is going on absolutely no volume, and its the fucking fed backstopping every fucking slide down. its the most criminal run market the past 5 years.

a bull market with people overbuying i can live with, as long as its free market, whether its right or wrong, this shit is only going up by the fed giving free money to the fucking banks, the same fucking banks that were too insolvent to stay afloat without a bailout ( imagine if all of us can just spend our money as recklessly as the banks did and get bailed out again and again) and now the top 1 percent benefit while the hard working american gets fucking robbed by the fed making bond returns completely worthless.

 

this is no bull market, this is a fucking criminal market, one that hopefully will end in blood and many arrests.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 21:30 | 3720276 starman
starman's picture

all I can say it feels and looks like 1992.

Wed, 07/03/2013 - 21:54 | 3720338 DEVILDOG
DEVILDOG's picture

Since the US government has perfected it's lying, thieving bullshit this bull run is not surprising at all. Have to have these bullshit runs so CONgress can make money doing their LEGAL insider trading. God bless the American government!

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 00:10 | 3720535 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It helps to have a bubble making fed pumping billions into equities.  Bubble Bernanke and the Fed are buying up everything.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 00:45 | 3720584 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"Yer doin' a heckuva job Bennie"

King George (Bush) the Third aka "Bush's Third Term"

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 02:52 | 3720656 dariomilano
dariomilano's picture

so, we have 1 more year of bull market or else no bust ..

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 06:10 | 3720752 robochess
robochess's picture

Oh, a bull market? I hadn't noticed.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 06:12 | 3720755 robochess
robochess's picture

With apologies to the Isley Brothers and the Beatles: 

"Taper and Twist"

Well, shake it up, Benny, now (Shake it up, Benny)
Taper and twist (Taper and twist)
C'mon c'mon, c'mon, c'mon, Benny, now (Come on, Benny)
Come on and work it on out (Work it on out)

Well, work it on out, trader (Work it on out)
You know you look so good (Look so good)
You know you got me goin', now (Got me goin')
Just like I knew you would (Like I knew you would)

Well, shake it up, Benny, now (Shake it up, Benny)
Taper and twist (Taper and twist)
C'mon, c'mon, c'mon, c'mon, Benny, now (Come on, Benny)
Come on and work it on out (Work it on out)

You know you twist my little trade (Twist, little trade)
You know you twist so fine (Twist so fine)
Come on and taper a little closer, now (Taper a little closer)
And let me know that you're mine (Let me know you're mine)

Well, shake it up, Benny, now (Shake it up, Benny)
Taper and twist (Taper and twist)
C'mon, c'mon, c'mon, c'mon, Benny, now (Come on, Benny)
Come on and work it on out (Work it on out)

You know you twist my little trade (Twist, little trade)
You know you twist so fine (Twist so fine)
Come on and taper a little closer, now (Taper little closer)
And let me know that you're mine (Let me know you're mine)

Well, shake it, shake it, shake it, Benny, now (Shake it up, Benny)
Well, shake it, shake it, shake it, Benny, now (Shake it up, Benny)
Well, shake it, shake it, shake it, Benny, now (Shake it up, Benny)

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