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Initial Claims Beat While Trade Deficit Surges
Those expecting a massive, epic miss in Initial Claims to keep the critical Baffle with Bullshit narrative going into NFP, did not get it, with Initial Claims printing at 343K, in line with expectations of a 345K print, following the obligatory upward revision in last week's print from 346K to 348K. Continuing claims dropped from an upward revised 2987K to 2933K, below expectations of a 2958K number. And as has been the case for the past year, Americans collecting Emergency and extended claims continue to drop, with 1 million less Americans on EUCs now, at 1.66 million, compared to the 2.62 million a year ago. These are all people who ultimately drop out of the labor force and lead to a "better" unemployment rate.
And while ADP and Claims were better than expected, it was the trade deficit that offset the good news, soaring 12% from a revised $40.1 billion to a whopping $45 billion, far above expectations of $40.1 billion, the worst miss in 7 months, and dragging all Q2 GDP forecasts lower with it. This was driven by a drop in exports of $0.5 billion offset by an increase in imports by $4.4 billion. The total May imports were $232 billion - the highest since March of 2012.
Specifically, broken down, the April to May decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in consumer goods ($1.2 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.9 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). Increases occurred in capital goods ($0.8 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.3 billion); and other goods ($0.2 billion).
The April to May increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.0 billion); consumer goods ($1.0 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.8 billion); other goods ($0.5 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.4 billion); and capital goods ($0.3 billion).
As for the key question, when it comes to making a determination if today's data is Taper worthy, the answer is - it's completely irrelevant: the only thing that still matters is how much the gross US debt issuance will be in the coming year. All the other "economic dependent" data narrative, that's continues to be just (very effective) smoke and mirrors.
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2000-2007
Employment increased 10.1m
Working age population increased 19.3m
52.3% rate of employment
The last year:
Employment increased 750k
Working age population increased 2.2m
34% rate of employment
We are so fucked.
Another credit bubble and we will be fine. /sarcasm.
Employment growth since Sept 2012
business surveys indicate a 1.5m growth...
household surveys indicate a 924k growth...
Business are obviously hiring more people than exist! Or...could be 60% of the new people who now have jobs since Sep 2012 are working TWO jobs or more.
Business are obviously hiring more people than exist! Or...could be 60% of the new people who now have jobs since Sep 2012 are working TWO jobs or more.
Ding,ding,ding!!!!!!,ve hav a vinna!!.
$40 billion or $45 billion...what is $5 billion when you're printing to save the world?
You think Amerika doesn't export anything? Just look at Hollywood! We are the world's envy for infotainment! And Q2 will be re-re-revised upward once intangibles are in play. The future is so bright, Charlie Sheen is snorting blow on Kim Kardashian's deflated and stretch-mark ridden belly.
The real issue of the day is: Did the 1% get any richer under our Fascist economic system?
Why would the country need exports anyway? /sarcasm.
Surge...sounds like a detergent.
It is a soda, a knockoff of Mountain Dew.
This is what the world sending goods and services to the USA and receiving some goods and some services and some obligations looks like.
I don't see anyone hiring except for McDonalds and couple gas stations.
@Jdog
McRibs and mogas made Amerika great.
Signs for part time help all over my neck of the woods,but hiring here basically never stopped for menial jobs.Always wanting part time(no ObummmaCare) type jobs.Which are not jobs, those are slave wages.The only Caucasions working restaurant jobs here are Upscale one's, the rest of the service sectors are ALL foreigners.
FROM all over the world.And 80% of my city is white,so nearly all live elsewhere and drive here to work.
Americans collecting Emergency and extended claims continue to drop, with 1 million less Americans on EUCs now, at 1.66 million, compared to the 2.62 million a year ago
In terms of perpetuating the false narrative of an improving - or even stabilizing - labor market, those 960K are the most important unemployed people of all.
If they switched off ebay, there is a chance that deficit might be a whole lot less and the cupboards of Americans a whole lot less cluttered.
OT...but I thought it was "FREE"
Foreigners face more charges to access NHS"Non-EU nationals coming to England for more than six months could be charged £200 a year to access NHS treatment."
And the funniest statement - - -
"The government believes some people come to the UK to take advantage of the system and plans to carry out an audit to determine the extent of the problem."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23156403#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=P...
"The government believes some people come to the UK to take advantage of the system and plans to carry out an audit to determine the extent of the problem."This explains WHY Europe and the US is so screwed, "Believes??".
Hello?,is there any moron at home.Difference here is it is PLANNED,and the fascist know it,and must have it.
Good news? Oh no! That's terrible!!
Wow what a sad trainwreck america is.
Just watch the first 10 minutes of 'Idiocracy' to see what everything is actually about, they nailed it.
I'm still amazed that film got made. Mike Judge is harcore. He's the kind of satirist they used to throw in prison. He's seriously that good.
Engine running with four flat tires, we're going nowhere.
I had a dream last night that my Ex. was driving a Lincoln Town Car with four shredded tires.
Something Freudian there I'm sure.
Maybe the government should raise the import duties on gold to 10%, that would surely help the trade deficit and support the Dollar.
Oh wait, no, no.... I was thinking of India. Sorry. The US is not India. The Dollar is not the Rupee.[yet]
It must be all of that survival gear we are importing....ammo too...
The US is great at manufacturing debt. It's the best at doing it.
Now if the US can get more people living off the government it can increase the deficit substantially.
More people living off the government vote for people promising more free stuff. More and more.
The next cog in this debt/deficit machine is the Federal Reserve which wants more debt and enables it.
none of this matters today. 5 billion in free money for the banks in t minus 15 minutes
Trade deficit surges, no surprise. US in the last few weeks is still importing over 8 million barrels per day of crude, the Bakken notwithstanding.