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Private Sector Adds 188K Jobs, More Than Expected; Taper Retantruming
Now that good economic news is horrible news for the market, the last thing stocks needed today, with Europe and Egypt imploding fast, was a strong harbinger of Friday's NFP number. And in the first part of today's jobs preview duo, the ADP report, it got just that, with the ADP private payrolls rising to 188K from 134K in May, and modestly above expectations of a 160K print. Will this transform into a 200K+ print on Friday sending the market into a tailspin, or will the initial claims due in minutes fix everything by missing horribly, we will find out shortly.
From today's report:
“During the month of June, the U.S. private sector added 188,000 jobs, driven by gains across all sizes of businesses, and with small companies showing the largest overall monthly increase. Most notably, the goods-producing sector added 27,000 jobs in June, a marked improvement over the decline the previous month.”
Broken down by category, all we can say is that with a whopping 1,000 manufacturing jobs finally created instead of destroyed, the US mfg renaissance is finally upon us.
The charts:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands)
Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands)
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size (in thousands)
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry (in thousands)
And since ADP does not provide non-seasonally adjusted numbers, it appears to believe credibility is gained among social networks by providing pre-set infographics such as this one:
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And yet gold and silver are not paper selling off.
You spoketh too soon ......
dont worry fridays number will miss big and the rate will go up
Tailspins are nice around the lake.
Finally, some good news. ;D
Yep... but REMEMBER!!
OBAMA GIVE IT'H AND ALSO CAN TAKE'TH AWAY!
now let's all bow our heads and praise the dictator commander of all armed forces in chief...
GOOD news? Well that's just AWFUL! OMG panic time!!
McDonalds is hiring.
I'm holding out for Burger King.
And after a lifetime career at McDonals you get to be MANAGER and make 5 cents more than the guys mopping the floors!!!
Making parents proud since the 60's....
And once you turn 25 YOU RETIRE BY BEING KICKED OUT!
and for those who are really ambitious they can start a second career AT WENDY'S!
SOS,different day, they will do lke they ALWAYS have, go back after they do their pump up, and rescind the oringinal #'s, and correct them LOWER.
They are just like the CPI, and BLS, lie like hell, then rinse repeat.
I just want to watch Lauren Lyster.
Her legs could have their own show.
So could other parts.. ;)
Wait until the numbers are revised.
Again.
Totally trustworthy to the "T"!
I said "FIRE" not "HIRE". Idiots. I work with idiots...
They listened to you but somehow the numbers get mixed up, F or H are so close on the keyboard
The SQUID misses again!
I hope the good news keeps happening. The quicker we get to 6.5% unemployment, the quicker this thing blows and the better the schadenfrude will be.
Imagine if the economy really did gain traction and decades from now, when the economy encounters challenges, they speak of "Bernankian Theory" to guide them valiantly through.
ps. Fuck you Bernanke
And they forget to mention that because of population increase this is in effect not good enough at all
Yeah, and this is payroll - as in 20-30 hrs./week - not necessarily full-time career employment (you know, the kind that would allow people to buy a house and afford exorbitant health care insurance premiums).
Since the employer mandate has been delayed for another year, we can expect higher and higher ADP numbers on payroll, but we will have to divide by 2 or 3 because all the new payroll will be PART-TIME.
ADP covers weekly payroll, or bi-weekly; I can't find anything in the details that differentiates Full-Time versus Part-Time:
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/common/docs/ADP-NER-Methodology-Full-Detail.pdf
p.s. - Starting November, 2012 - ADP started getting help from Moody's Analytics to put together their report so...
Headcounts, thats it.
This report enhanced by various govt agencies. ..move on
We are getting the Fed taper AND the recovery taper at the same time.
Maybe an Obamacare taper on top of that!
2000-2007
Employment increased 10.1m
Working age population increased 19.3m
52.3% rate of employment
The last year:
Employment increased 750k
Working age population increased 2.2m
34% rate of employment
We are so fucked.
But....can't we just pretend to be placated by TPTB's bullshit?
Heh! "...the US mfg renaissance is finally upon us."
Good one Tyler!
From now on, all news is to be treated as good news.
The 'ol "we'll take this fucker so high that you can't taper" play.
If this were just about the US, I'd say we would be able to dig out in another 2-3 years. The Fed would have to do a long slow unwind, and maybe we'd hit some semblance of normalcy in 10 years. I truly wish we could get there. Sadly, the mechanism that is our complex financial and business ecosystem is now running purely off the big gear that is QE, and that one is spinning some gears that might just fly off their posts - namely China, ME/EM and the Euro experiment. The US won't avoid a meltdown if even one of those comes unstuck... and it is happening. Face it, even talking of tapering has caused complete mayhem. Glad we are adding jobs if the numbers are right, but I fear this is a war being waged by people with little appreciation for the scope of the battlefield (global), or the power of the (monetary) weapons they are wielding.
Jobs generation power is in small business.
With all the PhDs making over $100K at the Labor Dept, how do their policies keep missing this point?
Exempt the first $30K to $50K of revenue from federal taxes and you will find the kind of jobs growth you keep missing with attempts like Solyndra, Amonix, and A123. Worst of all, the Chinese are likely to make A123 a winner after winning its assets for cents on the dollar - that's the way to start a business.
To create jobs, government at all levels just needs to get out of the way. People who get their salary 100% from tax money are not very likely to know how to generate jobs when a profit is required to sustain an entity.
Government has a place in keeping work places safe, on a level playing field, and not damaging the planet. Beyond that, get out of the way and let the jobs be created.
If the answer is government, then it must have been a stupid question.
We don't want jobs from harrassed and overtaxed entrpreneurs .... WE WANT CUSHY GOVERNMENT CAREERS !
When ANALcysts on CNBS are tawking down the jobs print, is safe to assume they're on the BLS early release list.
'...Now that good economic news is horrible news for the market, the last thing stocks needed today, with Europe and Egypt imploding fast, was a strong harbinger of Friday's NFP number. ..."
188K today - and tomorrow? Well this number will be revised down. So much BS data being pumped.
Love the ZH article yesterday - China just stopped reporting numbers - even the state liars get worn out.
How will the FED de-taper with deficits still occuring? Most of the jobs being created are rather low paying and that means little or no new taxes will be collected. What will be the rush to buy bonds with interest rates rising, although slowly?
Except it has to hit over 210K to make a damn difference.
markets go green or flat on everything.
we can never been down anything substansial. if we are, they will just ramp it up to end green.
bernanke is a fuck who must die
Check out the anti-market propaganda/bullshit being spewed by these left-wing asshats.
http://www.logarchism.com/2013/07/03/the-elephant/
He reads more like a Conservative/Minarchist Utopian.
Rreads more like a whiny apologish for statism, to me. He just throws a few "free market" bones around here and there to sound rational, but that's a total front.
The not seasonally adjusted figure is down about 30K year over year. Same old, same old.
That's a terrible number -- no wait Bush is not prez anymore. Great news!! Full speed ahead!
I want an adjustment in the seasons
Private sector? What's that? As Boris might say "all sectors belong now to us"
Lies, lies, damned lies.
I just don't get it. 2 small clothing shops a few streets down from my house are closing for good this weekend. The Pizza store on the same corner closed last fall and is still shuttered. WTF is going on!
Its a good location too. 2 Public schools, 1 Catholic school and 3 different churches all within a 1 block radius. Its not for a lack of foot traffic!