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China 'Officially' Moves From Made-Up Data To Hiding Data

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When the official Chinese PMI printed a few days ago we noted the 'odd' fact that several of the key sub-indices were 'missing'. While most put this down to some 'hiccup' or aberration, we wondered at the time what this might mean in a nation that has seemingly gone out of its way to baffle with Schrodinger bullshit for much of the last few 'recovery' years in the face of collapsing electricity production, copper/cement/steel prices, fake trade invoices, and a shadow-banking system so re-hypothecated that even the PBOC has decided enough is enough. Well, as Bloomberg reports, it turns out it wasn't an aberration, but new policy from China's Federation of Logistics and Purchasing which has now officially suspended the release of industry-specific data from the monthly survey of manufacturers. As one analyst put it, "the random absence of official data is disorienting," which is likely exactly the plan.

Via Bloomberg,

China suspended the release of industry-specific data from a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers,

 

...

 

“We now have 3,000 samples in the survey, and from a technical point of view, time is very limited -- there are many industries, you know,” Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, which compiles the data with the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters today in Beijing.

 

The disappearance of data on industries including steel adds to issues hampering analysis of the world’s second-biggest economy, after fake invoices inflated trade numbers this year. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index also omitted readings on export orders, imports and inventories without any explanation from the government.

 

“Suspension of the monthly data, without prior notice, makes the research work difficult for us,” Xu Xiangchun, a steel researcher and chief analyst at Mysteel.com, said by phone from Beijing. “The random absence of official data is disorienting.”

 

... the logistics federation told ... that the figures would be “temporarily” suspended without giving a reason.

 

...

 

He didn’t elaborate on the reason for the decision beyond rejecting the idea that it was because the data showed too much weakness.

 

...

 

Yesterday, a person involved in producing a set of data on the country’s steel industry said that the release was suspended after the statistics bureau decided to change how the figures are compiled.

 

It isn’t yet clear what changes will be made and in what time frame, or if the data for July would be released next month, said the person, who asked not to be identified as he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

 

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Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:19 | 3722052 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

quick hang some patsy and say it was all his fault

China! were tough on corruption!

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:49 | 3722111 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Damn, is Bush up to no good again?

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:32 | 3722167 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

"Baffle with Schrodinger bullshit."  LOL.  That was good.

But what you guys aren't getting is, they aren't hiding the data or making it up, its now a game of "Fill in the blanks".

Just fill in whatever number you want it to be!

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:57 | 3722219 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

GOD BLESS CHINA!

 

CHINA DOING GOD'S WORK OF HIDING TRUTH HUMANS DON'T WANT TO HEAR!

 

 

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:20 | 3722053 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Incomplete and phony data are nothing new out of China.  But, it does make one wonder how much gold they are really importing...

And if things are bad there, how much more (or not) will they continue to buy...

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:35 | 3722083 joego1
joego1's picture

I think they trade as much u.s. fiat for gold and hard assets as they can without destroying the value of what the are holding which means none of your biz Yankee.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:41 | 3722096 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

DoChen,

That's what I been saying here for a while and getting junked.  All Chinese data is manipulated except for gold.  Chinese know not to trust their .gov so all data is suspect.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 19:05 | 3722235 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Even government officials buy american stocks, buy canadian homes, bank in switzerland, send their kids to australian schools.

 

Rich = no legitemacy = can crumble any time

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 23:59 | 3722774 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

You got an error in your last line:
Rich + no legitemacy = can crumble any time

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:10 | 3722143 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

DoCHen I continue to maintain, to a blithering of red arrows, that the Chinese are selling gold to raise cash.  Not permanently, not forever; but selling, not buying so much.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 23:42 | 3722747 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hongcha, first I have heard that, thanks for the report.  I'll keep an eye out...

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:20 | 3722054 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

"Yesterday, a person involved in producing a set of data on the country’s steel industry said that the release was suspended after the statistics bureau decided to change how the figures are compiled."

Chinese steel today is at least twice as shiny as the steel last year... soooo

 

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:23 | 3722064 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Higher tin content.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:31 | 3722072 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Nope... don't think it's soaring tinplate production that's at issue...

My guess is that they hacked into the BLS's secret sauce to making hedonic adjustments based on... well... anything you want... to get the numbers you need... to sell the prescription that TPTB demand.


Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:32 | 3722079 knukles
knukles's picture

Nah, gonna start counting intangibles, betcha betcha betcha

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:37 | 3722088 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Buried in indecipherable bullshit utilizing Chinese characters no doubt...

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:24 | 3722066 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

They are fucking Communists, when have Communists ever been honest?

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:34 | 3722080 knukles
knukles's picture

When She said that He was gonna change your life, she was not only honest but dead fucking accurate.  And still looks angry about something or other.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:37 | 3722090 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Next he'll try to convince us he's an honest Brit.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 23:44 | 3722750 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I cannot believe that NidStyles got three junks for being correct...  Unless the junkers were commies!

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:35 | 3722084 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Amerikans need to buy more trinkets and junk.

Live better shop at Walmart, Target, and other big box stores.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:34 | 3722171 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Make the world a better place, boycott Walmart, Target and other big box stores. (and TBTF banks!)

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:36 | 3722086 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

BLS is jealous. if only they can omit data ..... Yippie.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:48 | 3722110 q99x2
q99x2's picture

 “The random absence of official data is disorienting.”

Get into it. Let if flow. Once you start peaking you'll understand. You'll see things as they really are.


Thu, 07/04/2013 - 17:56 | 3722124 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

It isn’t yet clear what changes will be made and in what time frame

I bet we will see a Chinese "birth, death model" in Steel production!! :)

It has work wonders in creating new jobs in the US

 

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:08 | 3722137 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

reminds me of M3

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:16 | 3722150 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Well, that was excusable.   Too much shadow banking info in that M3 number as we know, and that might lead to not so much "shadow" any more.  You know what they say about sunshine being a disinfectant.  Oh, and light bulbs with roaches much the same.  Oh, and, if you've seen one roach then...  It doesn't end.  So the best alternative is to simply eliminate the statistic.  Presto!  No more problem.  Now if the bank would just lose my mortgage note.  Oh, wait, they don't have one -- or do they?  One way to find out, and it's not just by asking.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:36 | 3722173 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

yep, and the banks run the courts so you are on the losing end no matter if you have your title, house paid off or mortgage, the bank owns it all.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:10 | 3722141 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

First you wanted the Chinese to stop lying and now you want them to start lying again. Make up your mind.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:21 | 3722157 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

I remember being just out of college and practicing interviewing with my grandfather. I started a sentence with "I feel..."

He shot back at me, "no one gives a fuck about what you feel. What do you know."

It seems to me that China wants us to try to figure out what is going on "by feel."

No really a good way to go through life. Knowing is better than feeling.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:38 | 3722180 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

Knowing is better than feeling

only if it is in the "biblical sense". 

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 18:56 | 3722215 God Bless The V...
God Bless The Virtuous's picture

You know, even for Bloomberg, which I cant stand,(his worthless T.V. channel included) this sounds like bullshit. Come on already, if the markets go bonkers tonight and our market follows suite tomorrow, there is no hope!

I am reading "The Road to Serfdom" and Hayek couldn't have been more clairvoyant than this garbage going on today!

Every person should read T.R.T.S. but start with chapter 13, I am on 14 now and the parallels from 50 plus years ago to today are striking! The so called efforts of Bubble Blowin' Benny and the most recent shit fron The E.U. this morning is right outta Hayek and it is even more timely today than when he wrote it!

May the good lord watch over this fragile little experiment in freedom / man's self rule as we celebrate 237 years of freedom today. America is the exception, there has never been a more free society than The good old U.S. of A, but it is not a forgone conclusion that we remain free with all the threats we face today!

God save the Republic

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 19:02 | 3722227 noless
noless's picture

Why would you willingly alert enemies to the state of your manufacturing base?

The tricks hid the ploy, now its on.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 19:36 | 3722312 thestarl
thestarl's picture

Same deal as in the old Commie Soviet Union right up until the point where it all collapsed.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 19:40 | 3722324 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Just goes to show things must be bad, real bad.

When the lying stops altogether the shit must be hitting the fan big time.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 20:20 | 3722440 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

I think this is a mistake on the Chinese scumbag leaders part. Much smarter to just lie and obfuscate to confuse. I guess they still have a few things to learn from us.

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 20:44 | 3722488 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Chinese just follow the FED playbook:

"....M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits..."

Thu, 07/04/2013 - 21:00 | 3722511 toadold
toadold's picture

Well the Chinese head of the "National Ship Builders Association" shot off his mouth. He stated that becasue of the glut of shipping the ship builders haven't been getting orders. He figures that in about 3 to 5 years over half ofthe dock yards will be gone.  They are sweating about what to do with the workers who will be out of work already.

In related news the Obama adminsitration has reported that they are puttin off the employer requirement to buy the Obamacare insurance for another year. Apparently it will wait until after 2014...or perhaps never.  The new hires in the Treasury department are starting to wonder if they can get jobs in China if they get laid off.   

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