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Market Response To Tidal Wave Of Central Bank Dovishness
Following BoE Carney's earlier dovishness, and purely by "coincidence" according to Draghi, the ECB has "extended forward guidance" on rates for the first time - once again changing rules and clearly indicating (in spite of his explicit comments that he is not) the ECB's reaction to Fed and BoJ instability introduced into markets. The OMT remains a ghost - but he promises its there if they need it - and negative rates are still on the table. All this jawbone easing (for critically nothing was said apart from no withdrawal of liquidity anytime soon) has sent markets surging higher on a US-market-holiday-induced low liquidity background...
Global Equities...
European Bond Spreads...
FX Markets...
We wait with bated breath to find out the half-life of a combined ECB/BoE jawboning effort...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Mission accomplished
I love free ink, even if it's spilled on a table.
Look at the Russell 2000 futures.... just a few 'dollars' away from "all time high".
https://www.tradingview.com/e/ZmSaSXzJ/
And here is the S&P ES-Mini:
https://www.tradingview.com/e/vLfPKboT/
The jawboning momentum is meant to carry the Europeans into their August vacations without another onset of crisis. After their Saint Tropez and Cap d'Antibes sunsets, they will start to see the effects of their mistakes re-appear right after German elections in mid-September.
(BTW, a bottle of Bollinger to Stolper from us.)
for sure...if the criminality of all this is not apparent to some they have not been paying attention....the half life of this recent jawboning will be just enough to take us into tomorrows big US employment miss to put an exclamation mark on the farce.
Now the obvious frontrunning is clear from yesterday, clearly those in the know were aware of this announcement.
With all due respect, fewer than 80k ES contracts traded this morning between 8 and 10 to ramp up 9 points: a nothing reaction to no news. We'll see during the next few days whether it actually was the smart money getting the jump on significant events, but I think you can understand my skepticism.
jawboning indeed. with some hummering afterwards. the banks will gladly take the money. enjoy the holiday!
Central bankers conga line proceeding apace, farting in the general direction of the workers.
Dadadah dah! Dadadah dah!
I went to the crapper and crapped 5 solid brown thumb thick bricks today!! => MARKETS WILL RALLY FOR 2% EXTRA ON THIS NEWS!
Yeah this market is fuelled only by SHIT, brown ones or BULL-SHIT.
Earnings start next week. The curtain will be pulled back as revenues will reveal that consumers and business realize the 'tit has dried up'. Get short as you can after the NFP report. AA will reveal that the rock hard landing in China has come and all of those 'multinational' DJIA companies aren't so great after all. Shit will get real, the recent prop up is nothing more than a propaganda campaign for the 4th of July.
I agree exactly. Also short the financials - they are going to get hit very hard in the weeks to come.
currency manipulation is so hot right now
oh i forgot, that's conspiracy theory, and hence must be ridiculed and derided
let's just call it "CURRENCY GUIDANCE"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Af9LmALZWNk
Central bankers everywhere....waving around empty guns. And because markets are no longer markets, they collectively raise their hands in the air.
We continue to witness nothing less than the complete and utter failure of the banking status quo. They stand before the world, clearly naked and impotent, offering nothing save for their manipulated markets which reflect the appearance of success in lieu of any actual success.
I watch from my perch in utter disgust as the real economy of the world falls apart, and these crooks within the central banking class make promises they cannot deliver upon. We all know it is nothing more than a puppet show.
The world needs to throw this central banking yoke off...once and forever.
It is SICKENING.
Menwhile super perfect trading quaters will be had - by all those that matter to the cartel.
And while we wait, and wait, and carry on waiting for reality to dawn on the world the manipulation and jawboming goes on - with exactly the desired effect. It seems no real bullets are required anymore, empty promises do still do the trick.
"The world needs to throw this central banking yoke off...once and forever."
This +100
I know so many people, retail guys who dont know jack shit about whats really going on and requires an FA to help in their investment decision making and I would say 95% of them are all LOSING money and this is in a MARKET that never FALLS??? How is that possible??? Well aside from the HFT scalping pennies and the Central banks jawboning the markets and increasing volatility and fuckin Insider trading and people leaking news to a select few, the retail guys are really playing with a huge handicap against these PROS on Wall Street. Like one of the previous poster says, the bank's trading desk have ZERO trading day with losses...WELL Now I know why coz the retail guys are the fuckin losers in this zero sum game. But I guess there is nothing wrong with this because these fuckers are supposedly more intelligent than us??? FUCK THAT
Sounds like your friends are on the wrong end of a distribution scheme.
Whenever I try to think like these scumfuck banksters I try to think "What will benefit the smallest amount of people?"
Kind of a reverse Utilitarianism.
Right now, for the next couple weeks/months at least, the ones who will benefit most (IMO) will be those LEVERAGED and in CASH! In other words, VERY VERY few people. Only the banksters and the insiders, with instant access to financing, benefit in such a scenario (which is deflation, this is what the cash is for, followed by inflation, this is what the leverage benefits from)
Well put Cdad; well put.
For the first time ever, the distant sounds of random explosions this Independence Day serve not to remind me of the long past victory of liberty over tyranny but rather they are the sounds of the approaching storm.
Sad really. Be prepared.
Yesterday a micro meteor if 0,1 INCH WIDE entered the atmosphere and burned up after 2 seconds.
THIS MEAN THERE WASN'T A EXTINCTION EVENT => MARKET RALLY!!
please explain to me why its illegal for us normal people to pump stocks, such as penny stocks for example, but these central bankers can manipulate markets time and time again without suffering the consequences?
this happens every fucking time, does anyone actually believe these fuckheads would come out and say something negative, although in reality, the only things going on now are negative?
they know if they say anything truthful markets would collapse, so god forbid they do that.
i cant take this shit, something has seriously got to be done about the fed/central bankers/ bank of japan/ bank of england/ pboc, etc. enough is efuckingnough.
On this day we celebrate our 'FREEDOM' & 'INDEPENDENCE' from the Rothschild puppeteered House of Windsor... Oh wait!
yup. cant wait for Barack Hussein Obamastein to speak confidently in front of a circus of clapping yardapes and declare that all danger has been averted and we are on the road to prosperity and liberty.
The golden rule. Those that have the gold make the rules.
The ink rule... Those who have the ink to counterfeit money [for themselves] & buy gold with it make the rules...
I had an old 72 Dodge Dart that was a lot like Europe. You knew it was going to die one day, but every week I'd find a way to limp it along. Buy a used tire here, swipe some shocks off a junkyard car there, rig the wiring when it shorted out in every rain storm. I got quite good at keeping that heap running. Thought maybe I could do it forever. Then one day, the trans refused to go into gear. That was the end.
One day a rod is going to go flying through the side of Europe's block and they won't be able to band-aid it any more. Us, too. Never know when that day will be, however. When it happens, it will almost certainly come from a direction nobody is looking.
I thought a rod played for the Yankees
A Rod is playing with his Winkee
ARod is a perfect example. People would love to get rid of him. But they are stuck with him. Broken down , old , cheating and lying. Plus that overpaid 200 million contract and its killing the team.
For Sale: one 1973 Dodge Dart - asking $8995. It even sounds like the Euro Zone:
http://www.carsforsale.com/used_cars_for_sale/1973_Dodge_Dart_165055790
"It's quite a seventies statement- the original color is called Pale Green but really is anything Pale with a bright olive vinyl interior-with original metallic sheen even!
This combo is a bright and cheerful combo that turns heads and generates smiles. It has usual equipment with the 225 cu in slant 6 engine (code RG), Torque Flite Automatic and brakes, AM radio, heater and defroster, remote mirror, white lettered tires with full olive interior. Undisturbed from build, including the original radio still.
Since acquiring it, a great deal of restoration and mechanical reconditioning has been Complete professional repaint in the original color. Done by a high line specialist in CA. The panel clarity is excellent. It's an awesome finish and is better than new.
MAJOR service [needed??!!] including coolant flush, all belts and hoses, value adjustment, transmission reseal, new exhaust, four white lettered radial tires, harmonic balancer replaced, main seal and pan gasket replaced, motor mounts and transmission mounts, some light bulbs, foam in the seats, and new alternator and voltage regulator. "
;-)
Print it up. Try to print it on the paper.
The markets should actually be worried that this is all they have left - the promise of endless free money which will inevitably lead to the next asset bubble and subsequent crash. Then what? They are all in at that point with no powder left outside confiscation.
Seriously, what idiot didn't think Europe was going to keep handing out free money for the foreseeable future? Or the US or Japan for that matter.
It is a global tragedy that free markets have been so completely abandoned.
They've got some deep pockets. So, all they have left appears to be infinite. Unfortuantely, it works so well for the big players in their fluffy sandbox.
Decentralization of wealth, and as a result decentralization of power. That is what is called for, at this point.
Just straight manipulation and counterfeiting, thats all these CBs do. Time to get rid of the lot.
What, this will affect the entire banking cartel, you say? Good. The sooner the better.
It is all toilet roll money now
Just like the game monopoly:
The Bank never “goes broke.” If the Bank runs out of money, the
Banker may issue as much more as may be needed by writing on any
ordinary paper.
http://www.hasbro.com/common/instruct/monins.pdf
So this will go on as long as we want to play the game. Are you playing the game? Are you going to work, earning money, buing gas and groceries, paying your taxes? Then the game goes on.
Only the minimum!
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130703/17210723718/if-only-ed-snowden...
Subverting CCTV with party hats
http://www.theverge.com/2013/7/4/4490058/front404-orwells-birthday-cctv-...
"Liquidity Withdrawal" .... Clinton's mess on Monica's blue dress ?
Yet another sad day for the people, the old, the sick, the savers, the young, the middle aged all to benefit the 0.01% of the population
How can the German courts declare the OMT illegal, it doesn't exist. When someone applies for it, then a term sheet will be presented. Until then, OMT will be spoken in confident tones when tail risk needs to be jawboned.
I will, with limited information attempt a definition: The OMT is a unicorn with a financial bazooka coming out of its horn that, when needed, will shoot sparkle money dust, that has the effect of magically fixing insolvent countries. No one knows how it works, but just talking about it has a calming effect on markets.
Don't short stawks when there is a holiday in the US or a major European country.
We must be the most retarded generation given our level of education, to be putting up with this sort of shit and for the others to be believing it.
Economy is in full contraction due to crude oil price and zero interest rates.
1) Tapering is ongoing on and off
2) Full halt is imminent
3) Rate increase is coming as late as september
4) 0.25 incremental rates as of september or a full blown 2% on the spot
However, anyday, anytime now, if the order from the White House arrives, full collateral call collapse may happen, hence they'll let the market raise the rates.
One way or another, higher rates are inevitable. Economy is dying and can't handle zirp any longer. Only higher rates start up the economy.
Good luck with that call. I don't it happening "imminently", that's for sure. Look at stocks today, straight up on Carney's first volley.
After 12 long years, I'm still waiting on gold and silver revaluations, let alone an end to ZIRP and QE.
Never before we saw proliferation of currency swaps = dollar avoidance.
Either QE halt and immediate rate increase or world war
I like how you put or in there.
Its a choice between governments or their currencies. Both cannot go on, in their current arrangement.
Although, it would be possible to kick the can down the road, by pretending to change course half way. I.E. print money like crazy, then pretend to get self-righteous and see the error of your ways (tapering), and start talking up letting interest rates rise.
My take is, obviously they will let the currency fall before the government (be it, EU, America, Canada, etc). But if the outcome was obvious, it would already be here (i.e. hyperinflation is a loss of faith in the currency, and hence, if it was obvious the currency will be destroyed hyperinflation would commence at that moment, the event horizon, if you will).
and to think "they never say they're sorry." not even claiming it was an accident actually. "a testament to our victory." Rock on central planners! Rock on!
Indeed, I quietly hope for an EKM style bout of noisy interest rate fuelled deflation. But unless the big plan is to go full Soviet in the aftermath, no way. No politician will ever vote for deflation, career suicide. I know somebody will be along to point out that politicians are just the puppets on stage and are interchangable - but even so, its a big stretch of the immagination. Much easier to carry on pretending and faking the numbers.The looting must continue.
gold and silver have done well so i wouldn't complain. i know i am not since i started buying at 400. However, you are correct, straight up on the market. Here's what i am thinking, if everyone believes that it is working and will continue to accept fake money as a kind of mass hypnotization, why can't it keep going forever. Seriously, if everyone believes and no one calls them on it, why won't it work. That's the thing. It's all perception.
Why can't the fed just unilaterally cancel all the treasury bill debt it has bought up? I have read articles on zero hedge why that doesn't seem possible but none of them have given a good reason why it can't. If you owe me a hundred bucks and i cancel the debt, i am 100 bucks poorer. But if you owe the fed a 100 bucks and they cancel the debt, they can just print that 100 right up or say, so what. I don't need it know. i will print more when i want to.
Can you provide some insight on your view of the timing of this? I understand what you are saying and why but please explain why you are so confident this is imminent.
Printing money = buying bonds. Not much left to buy. Repo market is dying due to lack of collateral
World is avoiding the dollar with currency swaps
Real economy cannot expand at zirp. Real economy expands only at 3-5% interest rates.
Presidential elections coming in 2016. Obama will increase rates now so they can be lowered in 2015 to help Hillary
Rate increases will reverse the impact of Interest Rate Swaps (this was a big deal back in 2008, I imagine its possible they have all expired or been unwound, although not exceedingly likely).
It will also lead to banks lending out their reserves.
In other words, the moment when prices start to get a little out of control, followed by repatriation of foreign-held USD.
On a global scale, real economy (GDP/total debt) cannot expand at all. Hope for the technological miracle.
people like you and I that are paying attention already know all of that save the political stuff. So basically you are saying the time has come because the mission to create a dependency society(i.e. Obama's mission) needs the devastation to hit now so they can use the central bank to create a recovery in time for their chosen successor.
I'm not bustin balls just curious as to the timing.
The ponzi halflife ends on Friday. Full blown currency war was declared today. What happens when the $ soars? WW3 coming soon to distract the sheeples from the real criminals.
Everybody wins ! What could go wrong..? Bernanke is a genius don't you know.....
The Fed, BoE and ECB are like magicians, the audience knows the secret to all the tricks performed, yet they cheer and give a standing ovation after every trick!! Only one word, PATHETIC!!!
why is it pathetic if it is working?
Because this is just a moment in time. Wait until the 100th monkey catches on.
can't they find another chimp to tell us how growth is just around the corner, I'm tired of Mario's asshole face.
for all the naysayers about the central banks, of whom i have been one, it seems to be working. I just went to italy for a couple weeks and had the time of my life spending those inflated dollars. Unfortunately, i did not ride the stock market up but if I had, i would have spent even more of those inflated dollars and had an even better time than i did, staying in nicer hotels, buying more italian clothes and shoes and on and on. Yes it may all come crashing down, but you have to admit that these central bankers are some super smart mother fuckers. look at how well it is all holding up. Maybe not for Greece, Spain and Portugual, where the people don't like to work that hard, but for the hard working americans and Germans the market is up, household wealth is now back to where it was, and you can spend to your hearts content if you have a good job. It may come crashing down but that might be ten years from now. In the meantime, enjoy what you are being given and put some doubt in your thoughts that these guys don't have a way to manage things because they have been doing pretty well up till now. As Mark Twain I think said, rumors of my death have been greatly exagerrated.
and buy the way, gold doesn't seem to be rising, which is another magic trick.
now if someone really smart can tell us something other than it will one day come crashing down, maybe i can get a handle on this and invest into this market. maybe mark grant from the interest rate observer or the other grant will decide to pen/type a july 4th missive that has some subtlety to it.
You seem lost.
why, what if these guys at the right moment transition our currency into a world currency? And in that way keep it going. Will gold go up. Maybe not, not if they don't want it to. people don't give them enough credit for what they have accomplished.
Don't underestimate your enemy.
But also, don't overestimate them.
The market is famous for making you make a bad decision at high price levels
that's why you are supposed to dollar cost average. i never understood that till now.
today was a good trading day in these futures
100% chance of us markets hitting news highs this month. Amazing
What a joke.
what is still a bit of a mistery is why the Fed started this circle jerk with fanning taper expectations. the rest was predictable. so, what about those gold shorts? ;)