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The Next American Revolution
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
Some July 4th thoughts on revolution as a process rather than an event.
The next American Revolution will not be an event, it will be a process. We naturally turn to the past for templates of the future, but history has a way of remaining remarkably unpredictable. Indeed, all the conventional long-range forecasts made in 1900, 1928, 1958, 1988 and 2000 missed virtually every key development--not just in the distant future, but just a few years out.
The point is that extrapolating the present into the future fails to capture sea changes and developments that completely disrupt the supposedly unchanging, permanent Status Quo. The idea that the next revolution will take a new form does not occur to conventional forecasters, who readily assume the next transition will follow past critical junctures: armed insurrection against the central authority (The first American Revolution, 1781), civil war (1861) or global war (1941).
I submit that the next American Revolution circa 2021-23 will not repeat or even echo these past transitions. What seems likely to me is the entire project of centralization that characterized the era 1941-2013 will slip into irrelevance as centralization increasingly yields diminishing returns.
Everything centralized, from the Federal Reserve to the Too Big To Fail Banks to Medicare to the National Security State depends on the Federal government being a Savior State that must ceaselessly expand its share of the national income and its raw power lest it implode. All Savior States have one, and only one trajectory-- they must ceaselessly expand and concentrate wealth and power or they will fail.
They are like the shark, which dies once it stops moving forward: the Savior State must push forward on its trajectory of expansion or it expires.
Stasis is not possible, nor is contraction; the promises made to the citizenry cannot be withdrawn without political instability, but the promises cannot be kept without fatally disrupting the neofeudal financialized debtocracy.
You see the dilemma: The Savior State cannot stop expanding, but the financial system that generates its revenues can no longer support its vast machinery of debt and phantom collateral. This is why I suggest all the centralized concentrations of wealth and power will either implode or fade into irrelevance.
If all the phantom wealth and collateral vanishes in a market clearing event, the Federal Reserve will simply become irrelevant to the vast majority of people. A handful of nimble speculators may well benefit by picking over the carcass of financialization and centralized omnipotence (i.e. central banking), and perhaps the 1/10th of 1% will still have enough assets influenced by the Fed to care, but the forces of disruption will replace centralization with decentralization.
Here is another example: Medicare may not cease to exist, but it will become increasingly irrelevant to most people because it will not longer function. The remaining doctors willing to treat Medicare patients will be working 13-hour days for sketchy pay, and as each one burns out and leaves the system, the system contracts. Eventually it contracts to the point of irrelevance.
The revolution will be in work and social innovations enabled by technology. The conventional view is that technology will magically enable the permanence of the present; this will be proven incorrect, as what technology enables is not the waste, entitlement and centralization that characterize the present but social innovations, some of which are already visible.
If we sought to summarize the profound transformation ahead in one sentence, it would be this: wages are no longer an adequate model for distributing the surplus generated by the economy.
The current Savior State model responds to this by increasing taxes on the dwindling minority with fulltime jobs and increasing entitlement payments to all those without government or private-sector jobs. This model will collapse, politically, socially and economically, as no society or economy can squander half or more of its productive labor force while increasing the burden on the dwindling cohort of productively employed. The inevitable result of this dynamic is a destabilizing Tyranny of the Majority. Tyranny of the Majority, Corporate Welfare and Complicity (April 9, 2010)
Technology is not just disrupting old industries and companies, it is disrupting the entire Savior State/cartel-capitalism model. The disruption has barely begun, but it will pick up speed over the next decade.
I suspect the next American Revolution will begin in the 2015-16 timeframe. A series of interlocking crises will lead to reforms that preserve the Savior State/ cartel-capitalism for another few years, at a lower level of consumption, i.e. burn rate.
But the process of revolution will be far from complete; this initial response of the centralized neofeudal debtocracy will buy time for the Status Quo, and every conventional onlooker will be infused with optimism and hope that the system established in the Great Depression, World War II and its Cold War aftermath--the secular religion of consumerism (i.e. aggregate demand), permanent war footing and the National Security State, and universal dependence on the Savior State and its ceaseless expansion of concentrated wealth and power--will continue.
But this Springtime for the Savior State/cartel-capitalism partnership will be brief, and by 2018-19 all the systemic flaws and disruptive trends will reassert themselves with renewed vigor.
The entire current model of governance, social order and the economy will be revolutionized not by overthrow but by the process of irrelevance. What will become relevant will no longer be in the control of the Savior State or its partner, financialized cartel capitalism.
Those currently holding all the concentrated power and wealth cannot believe they will become irrelevant, but that's the result of projecting the present as if it is permanent and immutable.
The new system will be better, more humane, more flexible, more transparent, with more opportunity, for it will be everything the current corrupt, sclerotic, parasitic and exploitive system is not.
Three video programs for your viewing pleasure:
Gordon Long and I discuss Window of Opportunity: Blown!
Longtime contributor and fellow writer Zeus Yiamouyiannis discusses his new book Transforming Economy: From Corrupted Capitalism to Connected Communities with Max Keiser
Kerry Lutz of Financial Survival Network and I discuss the future of work and education--though Kerry titled the show more provocatively....
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Welcome to my neighborhood.
=)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_f06VQOkI4
No one was resisting in either of those videos.
Look what happened with the LA riots, the DC sniper and with Dorner. If there is every any real resistance the enforcement mechanisms collapse, as they're dependent on virtually 100% compliance to operate.
All you need is a few events along the lines of Rodney King where enforcement is well outside of moral authority and they lose control.
True again. Everything collapses without 99+% compliance. Prisons, legal systems, various chains of command, governments...
Exactly, just like the East Germans were only pretending to comply.
I didn't see too many of them trying to stop the wall being knocked down.
Until you have spent time wearing a pair of boots in a combat zone, you should probably just shut up and listen to those of us that have the experience and know how operations usually go and how things are done.
That's always the answer, isn't it. I don't understand because I wasn't there. For the record, I pass no moral judgment. I understand that propaganda and chain of command are powerful tools that make good men do bad things. But I think only a fool believes that the military by and large will turn on their command.
I think your assessment is missing the fact that 90% of the enlisted population of the country is no longer under any command.
If the shit hits the fan, they will be called up. Happened already in Iraq. And the ones who resist will be deemed anti-American.
The MIC isn't running a training mission here, when this goes batshit, it will certainly be run fully backed by the proper motivation. The "story" will be rock fucking solid in the minds of most enlisted, no way this runs on a flimsy thread. It will cut to the core of every enlisted personel and be highly motivating. The flag waving will be completely over the fucking top, some dude will have a flute out for sure with a bandaged head.
Exactly my point (even if I didn't say it as well). The MIC will convince the grunts that they are protecting God and country. The masses will be deemed the enemy and most will believe that what they are doing is right.
You don't really believe the portrayals Hollywood gives you? Grunts.
Grunts have minds, and hopes and families. They have plans and many of them have an idea of where they want to go.
I don't think you understand just how human they really are. You might be shocked to find out how many people around you were once grunts.
Or do you think they're lesser beings, since they didn't go to COLLEGE? They HAD to go into the Military after all...
I'm using Anal Sphinchter's term (he says he served), not mine.
Most people who joined the military thought they were fighting for freedom. That was a lie sold to them in my view. But they bought it hook, line and sinker like most Americans (military or otherwise). So why am I disrespecting anyone by suggesting that the same people who lied about that and got good men and women to lay down their lives over it, won't do it successfully again?
You're a civilian, you should use the proper term, Infantryman. Grunts is derogatory, it stands for GRound Unit uNTrained. It was a term used for draftees.
Infantryman are not the common soldiers dude, and that is the point I have been trying to make. I can't think of a single 11 series guy that would shoot an American civilian. I know a lot of Infantryman and Scouts. I was in a Sniper Platoon in RSTA unit. I was a recce guy. I know the mentality, and how those dudes think. They are not shooting on civilians.
Not a single one of us think we are fighting for freedom, and none knew they were doing that in Iraq or Afghanistan. You keep applying this as if it's the ignorant morons that become Infantry. It isn't.
I worked with a guy from west Jax, I'll call him MM. He was recon in Nam. Helluva guy, knew his shit outside as well as inside, he forgot more than I ever knew in my former profession.
He told me one where he was in the bush for two weeks in silence, watching his own camp perimeter.
A patrol went out and came back with one more than they left with...he saved a lot guys lives that day. No big deal to him, it was his job, but he made it a point when he radioed in, that they should at least count the ones leaving the wire and square it with the ones coming back in ;-)
When I was 28 we rented a cabin from a 78yr old WWII vet. Proud fiery guy I came to really love. Every evening he'd be sitting out smoking his god awful European cigarettes and gazing at his cattle and I'd go out and talk to him. One day he told me he was captured and placed in a Japanese POW camp on an island in the south pacific. He told me in detail the excruciating hell he and his fellow prisioners went thru. He realized he wouldn't survive it and he and a buddy managed to get a wire, garroted the night guard and escaped into the jungle. After 3 days his buddy died a horrible death due to his treatment and he was, fortunately, rescued a week later. I was completely transfixed, shocked listening to his very graphic story, he could barely talk about it. He later told me I was the only person that heard it and felt comfortable telling it to me because he knew I wouldn't judge him. May be he just wanted to get it off his chest before he died. I felt so honored he chose me. He died about 10 years ago and I miss him so much. How many other vets have died without their stories told? I'm just a microbiologist with no real understanding or background in the military but I can honestly say the people i meet with the most heart, courage and honor seem to come from the armed services.
Miffed;-)
Miffed,
Combat vets (mostly talking ground troops here) have seen and done some things that sometimes can't be described for a lot of reasons. They all handle it different from what I can tell.
Some have no remorse, like the Pole who fought in a US uniform that lived behind me in the Burg. He related one time where he and his buds were at a wall somewhere in europe. On the other side of that wall were Germans trying to surrender to them. He tossed a greande over. He was proud of it, he had his own personal reasons...no compassion, no remorse.
Some (like one of my nephews) will only give one or two examples of what they did to survive and "deal with it"...never to speak of it again.
Some are completely detached from it (in a good way, for them), its just what they did, it was war, no big deal. They'll say what do you want to know.
But what the vast majority impart to me is, when everyone (civilians) are running around screaming about blood & war, kill them all, "whats the matter with military men these days" and all the other nonsense we see everyday...its the vets that are reserved about it.
They know what it is.
Its a vast waste of resources, lives and suffering that needs to rise to the level of being worth it to them to ever want or have to do it again.
You truly got me thinking Nmewn. So rarely in our modern construct of American life are we truly faced with the horrors of life humans have had to face for thousands of years. War, pestilence, natural disasters were once an integral part of our existence. Now, it seems, few experience these things and the rest view it on TV, strangely divorced from the whole process. I myself am included.
In my professional career there have been about 15 times when my decision made the difference between a person living or dying. The world stops, the infection disease doc turns to me and asks me to make the call. For a brief nanosecond I experience an inkling what a soldier under fire experiences. I must fall back to my training and experience and not think of the 24 yr old father of 2 young children who has a rapidly moving infection nearing his brain. This is intensely hard for me. I am very sensitive to the suffering of others but patients need competence not empathy. Compassion, such an incredably noble attribute, has no place on a battle field. To eliminate it is to dehumanized yourself for your own survival. I sense this in the vets I know, an aloofness, that they know I can never understand their world fully. I will not dishonor or demean their experiences claiming I can. When I watched Saving Private Ryan, the first 20 minutes were tortuous for me but I'm glad I watched it. How any high and mighty elite intellectual make pronouncements how the military should be is the height of hubris. If I ever become dictator I'd probably get a perverse joy dropping them in No Man's Land during our next war.Perhaps I will become more comfortable with detachment. Besides, it's more fun than a wood chipper! ;-)
Miffed;-)
I would suspect there is a lot of that...split second decisions made under stress that someone has to live with for the rest of their life...if it was the wrong decision those around you recognize it afterwards but understand why and how it was made.
It won't be them (those around you at the time) coming up and saying you screwed up, I'm never listening to your advice or covering your ass again...they know they didn't have the balls to make it or do it in the first place many times.
Its not for an outsider to come in years after the fact and say I would have done it different (of course they would, with the benefit of hindsight & knowing it was wrong now they can piously afford to say what they would have done then).
I have very little patience for those types of people...those who have never been there-done that...making broad statements about what they WOULD HAVE DONE given their opportunity to make a life and death decision in a split second.
You keep doing what you do best Miffed, I'll never second guess your professionalism or integrity, its what some of us have to do and live with the consequences of, everyday.
Its called life ;-)
Nmewn, thank you for your kind response. I think I'll tell you a tale about myself that explains my feeling on this matter.
When I was 24 and a newly licensed CLS, I was assigned to work in our surgical monitoring lab. A difficult open heart suddenly went very bad and started to bleed. I had six units set up and made the decision ( incorrect) to wait until 2 were left to call the main lab to crossmatch 6 more for me. When I called they had only 3 in house of his blood type ( he was an Oneg, only blood type he could receive). The main lab frantically called San Diego blood bank for an emergency delivery. Unfortunately, the van got stuck in rush hour traffic and didn't deliver the blood until it was too late. Yes the man died. Bled to death. The perfusionist came to me, got in my face and said: " I want you to realize you are the reason this man has died. I hope you can live with youself". This was a well placed stab to my heart because she knew part of my duties required me to go into the ICUs thereby causing me to see his family crying in the waiting room.
For 10 years I kept that story to myself. Fighting depression and praying God to forgive me. One day while riding with a friend ( who also was an Angican priest) my story just sort of spilled out of me. He was quiet for a time and then asked me " who is responsible for setting up blood on patients?" " The surgeon" I replied. " you said his blood type was rare and it was a difficult surgery?" " Yes, it was classified a 3b the most difficult ranking of heart cases." I replied. He was quiet again for a while and said " What you are saying is that the person who has responsibility, knowing he is going into into a difficult operation with a patient with a rare blood type ordered an inadequate amount of blood to be set up. Please tell me again who is responsible?" I looked at my feet and my lips were trembling but I managed to say " The surgeon". That day 10 years of guilt and grief washed away from me.
Nmewn, those of us who live on the front lines of life like active military and healing professions appreciate your kind words and understanding. No matter how hard we try, mistakes will be made due to our fallibility as humans. People today seem not to understand this. Perfection is the only acceptable outcome and damn you to hell, you'll hear from my lawyer,if it's anything but! The only power i have is simply doing my job everyday the best I can with dedication and integrity.
Tell mrs Nmewn that a crazy Californian thinks she made a very wise decision when she was 17. ;-)
Miffed;-)
More than a few people these days think their life should be free of pain, of want, of neglect, of the unintentional.
Its always somone elses fault they are unhappy or injured (mentally or physically). Life should be like in the movies or fairy tales, nothing but happy endings...lol.
Its not.
To wax philosophical for a moment, looking out off my back patio at the present moment, I can say, life is like a summer rain interspersed with deadly lightning strikes that the majority of us survive for 60-90yrs. We are the fortunate living, who can grieve or reminisce fondly about those who dared to walk through lightning storms and didn't make it. We should also appreciate and remember those who were the "kinder angels" among us, who despite their best efforts, cannot save everyone...as much as they believe its within their power to do.
It was no accident that all the things that you went through led you to this place in your life, to who you are now. The co-workers damnation, the self imposed guilt, your depression, your thoughtful friend/priest, all made you stonger when you think about it in retrospect.
An awful thing to go through but you walked through the storm and made it home ;-)
beautiful conversation...thank you both for sharing.
ZeroHedge, come for the fights, stay for the philosophical exchanges! ;-)
Miffed;-)
I am laughing at the synchronicity of life. I too am sitting out on the porch facing west. The sun has just dropped beyond our west mountain and the multitude of orange red hues are shooting across the skyline. I am sipping my favorite single malt scotch gazing at the frantic divings of hummingbirds, determined to get a few last tastes of the sugar water in their feeders before they must retire to bed. Mr Miffed calls it Hollys Hedge Haven, a place I go decompress from my day.
I am ever so thankful I made it to 52 and have the wisdom and maturity to review my life with kindness and understanding rather than guilt and condemnation. Perhaps there is a wisdom in growing older that can happen if you strive to attain it ( though I have to admit I DO miss my 20 yr old body! At least I took reasonable care of it).
I agree life is NO accident and we must all come to grips with the hand we are dealt even though we gnash our teeth in anger about the unfairness of it all like spoiled petulant children. I can see the difficulty in my life has made me more resilient but, at the time, I could not see it. Like a foot soldier in the heat of battle when all seems lost, he cannot understand the view of the general who perceives the victory is at hand. When I used to work trauma I saw so many suicides, attempted as well as successful, by young people who were so damaged by their circumstances they saw that as the only way out. I'm so thankful I never got to that point. Perhaps this is why I really can't tell some of the totally asshole SOBs here just to shut the fuck up ( I know, I really need to get with the program!). So much of my depression manifested itself in anger I guess I see too much of myself in others to really attack.
Nmewn, you are a very wise thoughtful man and thanks for taking the time to respond at length with me. It's times like these when everything seems so dark and hopeless we can find respite, then recharge to engage the challenges of our lives. It truly makes me happy knowing there are others out there that are awake and perceptive. No matter how black things become in this country they will never take away our heart and minds.
Miffed;-)
Been fighting off the dark matter for most of my life, at 53 its too late for me to change nor do I have any inclination too, the bastards will never beat me down.
You know, lifes funny, if I remember right, I was your initiator into Fight Club (first fight). I don't think a could have picked a better human being.
Take care my friend, I'll always have your back ;-)
My dearest Nmewn.
I would never wish to change you but celebrate you in all ways. Never, but never, fear that! Yes, I will never forget our first fight. You zeroing in on my weak points and me flailing around like a novice with a sword first thrust in her hand. ( I'm shaking my head in embarrassment remembering that day !) You were kind to me and bloodied me gently. Thanks for allowing me to try my wings. I really needed that more than you can know.
I am honored to have you as a friend. You don't strike me as one who gives that impetuously,without careful consideration. I tend to be discerning myself when it comes to my associations. I can't abide vacuous, shallow people ( they don't like me much either actually). We need vibrant, thinking people today, willing to take on the horrendous problems our country is facing today. Where I stand it doesn't look too hopeful.
I will always have your back as well my dear Nmewn. Never fear, my word is my bond and I will never let you down. Take care and god bless always.
-Holly
Nmewn, you probably won't ever see this but I was laughing over this when it popped into my head this morning so I thought I'd just jot it down. Another reason I will never forget my first fight with you!
When you first initiated me in fight club I happened to be staying at the Mandalay hotel in Las Vegas. I was lounging in the spa when you made your attack. As we had our exchange I got quite agitated and got up and down numerous times and paced around. This woman next to me finally sat up, pulled the cucumber slices off her eyes and asked if I was ok. " Yeah I'm fine...No I am Not fine, I'm upset. This guy in Florida called me a statist. He called ME of all people a statist!" she glared at me and said " He called you a sadist?" " No...a STATIST not SADIST" I replied. I figured what was going to come. And it did. " What's a statist?" I gave her the "do not bother me now I must concentrate look" and said " it's something incrediblely worse than being a sadist. The worst of the worst" I turned back to my feverish typing but could see she was still watching me in the corner of my eye. I decided just not to give her any eye contact and she would probably just leave me alone. Speaking very softly with a concerned look in her eye she leaned over to me and said " Gosh, maybe you should call the police. This guy may be some sick stalker or something!" That dingbat sure gave me quite a laugh.
Miffed;-)
They can't top 9/11 without toppling the fedgov, any major city goes down for real, no amount of flag waving musters the troops, strait secession by all those already preparing.
Unless you have Chinese troops landing in Boise, no one is going to oblige that shit.
The "event" would be unbelievable. They have lost.
Of course, 9/11 proves me wrong.
They will be called up? What the hell do you mean by that? My goddam enlistment ran out in 1996. Best of luck coming out here to Redneckfuckistan and getting me back into uniform and on a truck, enroute to suppress my neighbors.
There are 23 million veterans in this country, according to some dink who put that number in his blog and I read it. Point is: It won't fucking happen, they're going to tell the Annoited, soft handed political class parasites to partake of some impossible sexual acts and then lock and load and burn anything or anyone that tries to force them to do anything. They're itching for a fight out here, buying ammo and guns and AR500 plates and alice packs like they're the new fucking cabbage patch dolls.
These idiots in their metrosexual, echo chambers of "power" don't have a fucking clue what they're about to tip over. Idiot children playing with matches.
I am giddy with impatience, because I'm sick and tired of paying for all these fucking parasites.
They will tell you and your fellow retired soldiers that you are fighting the metrosexual idiots. Bush was a frat boy cheerleader and Cheney got deferments, but they waved the flag and called anyone against the war in Iraq lefty socialists and a whole culture grew up around the Patriots dropping out of helicopters versus the metrosexuals who thought the whole thing was a lie. When the shit goes down, whomever is in power will wrap himself in the flag and tell you that you are fighting for God and Country.
THEY? Who is they? What are THEY going to do to coerce me into a quivering, servile little extention of their whim?
THEY had better not let morlocks like me through the gate in that instance. I will burn it all, ALL before I live as a slave.
I'm curious, what are you going to do when THEY tell you to get dressed and pick up a billy club?
Come on LFMayor, you're smarter than this. It's the same "they" who was in charge when you signed up. Hasn't changed. They convinced you the first time even though it was a big lie, so why do you think they won't convince you next time?
Mostly because I'm not 18 anymore.
I don't know who that THEY guy is, but there are a lot of people blaming him for some pretty shitty things out there. Either he's one seriously big POS, or he's just a dude no one likes.
The guy you were fucking stupid enough to sign up with. Guess his name.
20 gold ounces says that you are out shooting your fellow man before any of us. Why? Because you will have to earn your food from the feds.
My respect for you just went to zero. Fuck you and your propaganda machine that you believed when you signed up. You were a sucker then and your are a fucker now. Fuck you.
thats why we all come here. To bask in your respect.
No sir, that will work only for awhile.....after a few months defections will start....and then a flood of defections from both both leos and military....
That is why we are hearing about foreign troop agreements with Russia and other countries
But in a partial collapse, where will they find work? A lot of these young guys have families and babies to take care of. Free medical care and base housing means a lot. And if they are fighting the next war overseas, where do they defect? Probably don't have a passport, got in country on the id card.
If I was a Russian soldier, the last place in the world I would want to be is in Washington, DC protecting TPTB from 100 million armed Americans. Any foreign forces become instant target practice.
It is the answer even if it were something that could be explained with verbs and nouns.
The military is not what most people make it out to be. Especially in the combat arms there is a lot of back and forth between the guys doing the job and the guys throwing the orders out. NCO's are the backbone of the military, and guess what they are, enlisted men. Without NCO's the military doesn't move. It doesn't function, and it doesn't operate.
This is why it's not really possible to convey to people whom have never worn the boots why the military would never pick up arms against the public. Sure maybe some of the staff weenies will try until the former Infantrymen turn around and start butchering them en masse.
Fuck yourself you fucking sheep. Baaaah.
So true. There are more than enough rusty old bolt action rifles in circulation alone to sufficiently arm a successful resistance in America. Heavy weapons, smart weapons, and huge volumes of ammo are both impractical and unnecessary for a successful insurgency.
-1
One does not necessarily follow the other.
If/when things really start to fall apart, they will not cede power and no one is going to take it from them. -- LetThemEatRand
We can take power from them. It won't be easy, but it can be done. We need numbers, unity. I'm not an optimist, but you are a pessimist.
Why take something they do not have. They do not have any more power than you imagine that they do.
Sheep like you give them power. Baaaaahhh.
"I'm not an optimist, but you are a pessimist."
Perhaps, but I think I'm a realist. I don't expect some sudden event where soldiers/police have to decide who they support. I expect a long, slow burn. Those who fight the system will be demonized. Former soldiers who call to arms against TPTB will be deemed terrorists. It is already happening (e.g., if you have a Ron Paul sticker on your car you are a potential terrorist, former military are given special scrutiny in terms of buying firearms, etc). And we all know already that most police will happily kick in the head of anyone they deem a Liberal/Socialist etc.
So you propose that dissent will be vilified? Don't you already know the rhythm? Or are you too white for that?
Event, crackdown, alteration of law. Ad infinitum, it is their tool.
It is happening, and will happen, as will support for a resistance to such practice; draw your assumptions to their logical conclusions..
as you say, "there will be no event."
Stop contradicting yourself.
2021-2023......Are you fucking kidding !!
A revolution is not a crisis. Things change in a revolution. We had a crisis in 2008 and nothing changed.
Yes Seasmoke - read "the fourth turning" - every 80 to 100 years (known as a 'Saeculum' - the typical length of human life and it includes 4 generations which typically repeat archetypes) major events happen in American history and 2021 to 2031 will be the next 'event' - it's easy to see all the financial chaos that is swelling up getting ready to explode.
Just think about all those abandoned castles in Europe (the ones not re-opened as tourist traps). Now imagine Washington, D.C. abandoned. I agree the day will come. I hope to live long enough to see it.
I'm sure Peter Ustinov will be willing to put you up when the time comes.
It will return to swamp.
imo the DC criminal cabal will quietly turn the keys over to our new task masters, the foreigners that own all our paper.
Well we know it will not be televised.....
But will it get rid of the nubs?
Wonderful
It's one thing to posit that the current corporate wage model cannot survive. It's quite another to speculate about what might take its place.
For many that model is something like a return to Jefferson's Virginia with small land holders and shopkeepers meeting in villages to exchange goods and services. Nice, if you don't account for the 80% of the population that almost certainly can't or won't be involved in such a bucolic scene. Call it Collapse Utopia.
Alternative models have been thought of but not all that fleshed out. For example if you consider the white-collar/blue-collar divide, in my opinion no one has studied the economic and social phenomena around professionalism enough. It's possible that many elements of the old guild model could return for some portions of the professional and skilled labor population.
But looming over all that (along with the global elite kleptocracy, which clearly needs to be eliminated), there is the question of what scale of state and private organizations will be best suited for a changed landscape. That question is the hingepoint for a lot of other details.
Anyway, ideas worth thinking about.....oh, and try this: What is the economic model for the average middle class household? What value added, annual income, housing value? I don't know that we won't be largely reduced to the $20,000 range, with hikes to local bars for wine and live music because there will be no mass entertainment left. Just home video of millions of wannabes......and it will be better if we maintain our values.
Bye bye glittering towers, celebrities, and imperial bases. Bye bye,
Brought a smile to my face;)
what scale of state and private organizations
a return to a healthy state of tension between insurrectionists and institutionalists would answer that question, right now the institutionalists are running amok in bed with the corpratists
*Offer valid while supplies last. Freedom sold seperately.
Don't know if you all have been following this 3D printing stuff, but it appears to hold unbelievable potential ... houses built in less than a day with little labor, re-creating all sorts of archaic parts for machinery (cars esp.), using human or human-like tissue for reconstructive surgery. Kinda reminds me of the early days of the personal computer where the only applications were for "storing recipes" or using them for a personal phone book. The day may be not too far off when mass manufacturing itself will be an obsolete process. And that's not even mentioning the future uses of graphene! Interesting times.
+100 for mentioning graphene
The state can't tax what it can't find, and when crypto-currencies like Bitcoin come fully of age — surely within the next few years — the flight out of government fiat currencies will be unstoppable. Yes, own precious metals during the transition, as the Internet will go dark during a "bank holiday" that shuts down the power grid. But crypto-currencies assure that the state's days are numbered, and precipitously so.
from your lips ...
Okay Charles so exactly how do we reverse this phoney "war on terror" exactly?
Are you serious? You honestly think it can be reversed? instead of fade out by attrition in a linear positive aggregate?
Starts with taking our language back. Control the definition and you don't even need to control the message.
exactly skateboarder, muddy the water of meaning so that language becomes ineffective, ie. mulitple/conflicting meanings. Take to social media and "blogs" and fuck up meanings ie. language so it turns into a ---my ism is better than you ism party---- walk away smiling,,,,mission accomplished
My point was that reversal is an inconsistent term.
Fighting the state through its methods will lead you to an exalted state in the county fucking dump.
This shit will play out , without your consent, best to acknowledge that the only recourse is to abrogate, instead of attempt to stick your pinky in the dam.
Build your existence outside of their rule.
Sorry, finger in the dyke, was trying to be pleasant.
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I envy those living in the surreal understanding that current and past government programs serve their originally stated purpose and will retain their relevance..
How blissful.
For this next American Revolution to happen so soon, circa 2021-23, implies the process of centralisation that is happening has already peaked and is on the turn, if not already turned. I find that a hard proposition to agree with. I think there's a lot more to come.
I agree that centralisation will eventually destroy everything in its path, but not on this short timescale.
Recall the Soviet Union...that lasted ~70 years before it imploded.
True, but remember that the population was already used to a difficult existence.
Our standard of living is considerably different. Even the poor have flat screens, IntaWebs and iPhones.
It will happen here when the majority of the population is quickly taken out of their comfort zone.
I expect it will happen much sooner than 2021-23.
You mean a century and a half since the outcome of the War of Northern Aggression set the stage for relentless centralization isn't enough? Surely a century of central banking is, then. No? The how about over four decades on an irredeemable fiat currency?
Take your pick, but I'd say the revolution is at hand.
Meanwhile, the state can kiss my ass.
Agree with all your points.
But the clock only really started ticking after 9/11 and has gathered momentum since. Very little before that really raised the anger levels. Only when we see Obama trying to disarm the population, introduce a fascist police state, failing to get the banksters for criminality and spying on everything & everybody has anger begun to rise.
It may be an event along those lines that triggers a response. But with a large majority of people seeing nothing wrong with what's happening - and many in favor because it makes them feel safer - that will take some serious focusing of attention.
I'll know something is moving when I see large numbers on the streets across America - that's millions, not thousands.
As with the collapse of the Soviet Union, that of the American Union (this being the ideal day to ponder it) won't happen with a bang but with a whimper. Everyone will know it's over, in other words, even if this comes after another world war to divert the people's attention, FDR-like, from the calamity at home, followed by martial law, capital controls, and emigration controls. (You don't think the proposed 700-mile fence on the Mexican border is to keep people in a collapsing economy out, do you?)
Which is to say that if and when you see millions "on the street across America," it won't be because they're protesting; it'll be because they're running, the question being whether you'll be running with them, they'll be running at you, or you're already safely out of their way.
I submit there are two related, but separate issues here.
1. the emergence, growth, peaking and eventual demise of The US Empire.
It's only been ~10-15 years since the US has been widely acknowledged as being an empire. Prior to that it was simply seen as the world's largest economy and leader of The Free World during the Cold War. The term empire was avoided by friendly foreign elites, but who nevertheless passed whatever laws were demanded by Washington and hid obedience to Washington from their own electorates to avoid being accused of being American puppy-dogs. This has never been clearer than in the UK, but also much of Europe and elsewhere. Global orgs like the IMF, World Bank, UN et al are largely controlled and dominated by the US Empire and have assisted its expansion and control. In the UK, we could see these orgs as "Quangos". That is, they are discreetly under the control of The Centre but have ostensible operational independence to mislead the populations.
We already see this global power/control/influence by the US empire waning as more countries attempt to break free and establish alternative models, eg the BRIC countries, and others who find the courage to speak up against it or simply ignore it and go their own way. Much of the military aggression and civil unrest going on in the Middle East is being stirred by Washington because they won't do as they're told and to distract attention away from domestic problems.
I also see the US Empire becoming less relevant in the world and, as you say, it will most likely fade away rather than go out with a bang, unless some major last-gasp-distraction (war) is engineered to delay its demise. But eventual demise has been the path of all empires in history. It's just a matter of time.
Further steps towards demise could easily happen in the 2021-23 timeframe.
2. the emergence, growth, expansion of a domestic fascist police state.
In many ways this is related to the demise of the US Empire. When an empire begins to crumble, often aggravated by uncontrolled spending and bankruptcy, it turns on its own citizens to steal their wealth to fund out-of-control central spending. Add to this all the domestic police state actions being played out to create imaginary enemies and it's not difficult to see what's happening.
It is this aspect of the demise of The US Empire that I believe has a lot more to come. I cannot see it ending in the period 2021-23, save the appearance on the streets of millions of people.
We see the US having less and less global power/control at the same time as the ruling elites apply ever tighter controls domestically.
No... it will be an event, not a process. Since there is no way of working within the system or significantly changing the system, it will happen overnight.
When the good guys in the military have had enough and .01% of them turn their guns on their commanders... including that coffee colored faker in the White House, it's lights out for the traitors.
Who you may think to be the "good guys" aren't. There will be enough to put down your idea of an insurrection.
A revolution requires an overarching ideology. It requires a belief system that is supported by a thesis that extends well beyond just a primal urge to throw the rascals out. It is not sufficient to hasten the destruction of what is, in the hopes that it will be replaced by something better. Blind hope will put you on a train to Auschwitz. What is needed is a clear and precise articulation of what is to replace our failed systems.
The map has already been laid out for us. Should we once again adopt the guiding principles of the Declaration of Independence, then there might be a chance at a genuine revolution. If for a moment we truly believed that all men are created equal, that they are endowed with certain inalienable rights and that among these are the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness then, we might have a chance.
"Democracies die behind closed doors."--Judge Damon J. Keith
The Shark dies if he goes backward or in reverse! O_0
Have some fucking mercy OTM, why you wanna do that!
This revolution will be televised.
RIP, GS-H.
To paraphrase Hemingway, revolutions happen gradually - then suddenly.
The Next Revolution is upon us.
For the suvival of the Occidentials.
I submit that the next American Revolution circa 2021-23 will not repeat or even echo these past transitions.
Uh huh. I get it you are one of those two brothers in the Banzai7 portrait. You know the one I mean. Give me a fucking break already. Dude you are going up against Dick Cheney, Hillary Clinton a thousand other psychopaths not to mention the CIA, Al-Qaeda, Mario Draghi the FED and Jim Carrey. And, you think they are going to call it quits, surrender for the greater good of the planet, because a better way leads to a vibrant fucking socio-economic system.
Well the DHS disagrees and so do I.
How many government dependents do you think will die of hunger, cannibalism, and treatable illnesses before things sort themselves out?
Hopefully all of them.
"Once that first bullet goes past your head, politics and all shit, just goes right out the window....."
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
-- M. Tyson's corollary
"I'm going to fuck you 'til you love me..." - M.Tyson
Bingo, hit the nail on the head about economists being pretty useless as technology has advanced so far and so quickly, they don't have their past archives to rely on as they mean nothing, not pertinent to what's happening today. In the video about the Quants of Wall Street, Quant extraordinaire pretty much tells you that they are out there guessing like the rest of us and they don't' have laws. Coming from a top quant and physicists that deserves some real attention:) If you have never seen it, watch it as I keep in the footer of my blog visible on every page as it's the only video done to the point to where the layman understands a bit of how this works. It's cool seeing a mathematician at the black board calling farce.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.hk/2012/09/quants-alchemists-of-wall-street-v...
There's also another great one the footer, Proofiness..don't miss it as you will see how Algo Duped you get. The book is good too, Proofiness the Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception..."the fish was dead":)
Technologies disrupting old business, yes indeed it is, take insurance as now we have ventured into the "too big to fail or jail" category there too as they remain under the radar with Tired Subsidiaries and work quietly in the background. The carrier of course is United who is gobbling up everything they can. Back in 2008 I asked the question about them, am I insured by a technology or insurance company. The action is happening in the the subsidiaries folks. If you go back to 2007 it was the largest derivatives penalty levied. In my own opinion founder was set up by the current CEO as the former was a doctor, not known for business intelligence. The current CEO is a bean counter and was the former COO...get the picture on the back dating here. It's just my thoughts but after seeing the new CEO and his actions and the way he presents himself...well the bean counter wanted to be the CEO..greed. I think the poor old doctor got the brunt of it with believing back dating could be hidden and who do you come back to, the former COO who is now CEO:) Again my theory only based on what has occurred since 2007.
I put a ton of links in there to the subsidiaries that you probably didn't even realize existed as a sub. It's all happening at the subsidiaries where a lot can be hidden.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2013/07/health-insurance-business-under-r...
Here's a quote from an MD who I know that despises the company due to all the headaches the company gives him...see how corruption goes..
“Barbara you going to be ashamed of me. I was so impressed with United healthcare's ruthless acquisition strategies and sneaky ways in combination with the insurance commission walking around like a blind man without a cane that I bought some of their stock. It has done quite well, but I may ditch it soon.”
Keep in mind a subsidiary of this company is building the new federal data hub, a company they acquired 2 weeks after the award of the contract by HHS.. I told him to watch the news on how this develops and sell short later if needed:)
The data base and it's development has been a huge secret from almost everyone as you have probably already read in the news:)
There are more than this company but staying under the radar using models and code with subsidiaries certainly looks to be a model that many are following and thus we have what the article above talked about.
Boy, LTER sure talks a lot.
Lemme see if I got this... first The Fiscal End/Reset was supposed to happen in the 2012-2013 timeframe, Gold was gonna take over, and now we're supposed to 'hang on' another 8-10 year's?
When does this Reset Hopium end? It's a fair question.
The next president matters.
Funny.
The last President who mattered was ... wait ... I'll think of one....
The Next American Revolution will be fought between humans and spiritual machines. That's it.
Just get on with it. WTF is everyone waiting for? Water not boiling hot enough for you yet?
It's always the same shit repeated over and over without any action. You know why, don't you? The truth is the rest of the frogs in the boiling water are blissfully unaware and if you went out tonight to your local square ranting about criminals in power, tbtf banks, the surveillance state, fractional reserve, fiat currency, the Constitution, rehypothecated assets, drone kills, Ron Paul, and false flags. Well, you are going on a one way trip to the funny farm full of thorazine IF you are LUCKY, or more than likely get the beating of your life from the cops before being dumped in the nearest male rape centre, which curiously has become an accepted form of incarceration by the American populace. That should tell you a lot about the average sick fat fuck in the States and the justice system.
You are not going to put your head on the block because you are scared. And I do not blame you one bit. So do me a favour and stop posting shit about being a former crack shot in the army, and how the same sick fucks with no compunctions about dicing up kids with an array of weaponry in every theatre of war are miraculously going to ignore their orders and turn into angelic heroes of the revolution. That is such bullshit, nobody who has ever been through basic, let alone in battle would ever harbour such romantic fantasies. Soldiers follow orders. End of story.
The only thing we can do that can have any real impact is the symbolic withdrawl of participation in the system. Cdad did a great post about it today and it was pretty comprehensive. Enough of us show dissent by peaceful means, it won't be 2021 before change, it will be as soon as we reach critical mass - say high single figure percentage of the populace. Forget about using violence to solve a multitude of problems. You may be smart, informed and passionate about having high ideals, but you are surrounded by millions of hungry, angry, moronic apes aching to use the suspension of law and order to take everything you have and more.
Speak plain English.... Because I don't know what you just said. It's like you were speaking a dead language like LATIN or something.
I would assume that if Kelly Thomas was YOUR son, that maybe you would just turn the other cheek...or maybe there is still time for you to have more children once the current ones are killed off with out you doing anything more then that. Is it possible to win yourself and your posterity more by just procreating?
The ones who talk the most shit about warfare are the very ones who have never been in it.... Frigging Pikers!
It's all a house of cards. Watch it fall.
Take care of your family, take a month or three off of work. "They" thrive on your productivity, like a tick on a vein. Take that away and they are helpless, lost, and out of business.
Ask youself this: Do you need a leader?
I don't, and that scares the psychopaths.
And we should sell gold and buy bonds?
the only revolution in america would be newage hippies just smoking weed and living cheap and perhaps just having local lan communications
if everyone just goes local the system can just go fuck itself - well the cities would be fucked, but they already are for the poor anyway
Mr. Smith, are you really predicting when the next American Revolution will happen?
And,
"The new system will be better, more humane, more flexible, more transparent, with more opportunity, for it will be everything the current corrupt, sclerotic, parasitic and exploitive system is not."
What a bitch it must be to predict the resolution of chaos and the self-absorbed in control.
I believe you are getting ahead of yourself.
Proclamations of "the new system" should set anyone off.
"Men are not corrupted by the exercise of power or debased by the habit of obedience, but by the exercise of a power which they believe to be illegitimate, and by obedience to a rule which they consider to be usurped and oppressive."
de Tocqueville
The next revolution will be a tax revolt. Those that can will not remit taxes to the Federal government. Those that have taxes deducted from their pay by their employer will claim many deductions to lessen what is deducted.
Starve the Feds of that which ensures it's survival...taxes.
Starve the Feds of that which ensures it's survival...taxes.
BBart, you have it-that is the only way to defeat this monster of a government-starve it, neither party wants to upset the status quo, and their gravy train. Jus think about the hard work it takes to generate a gross income of $170K , plus benefiets in the real world. Politics is about power and the Dems nor the Repubs are going to change one thing.
Look at the cast of players we have seen during the IRS, Fast Furious, Benghazi, all of the these acedemic managers are making $180K plus. While the PEOPLE have been working to put a life togather, raise children, save-govt has been highjacked. There is no real difference between Congress or the Fed Unions-everybody is just gorging or the peoples money-think City of Bell, CA. Cuting the funds is the only way.
Unfortunately, the tax revolt will be countered by cancelling of your passport, or worse, so most will chicken out.
Want to know the future? Just look at Palestine. A whole country turned into a gulag. Why couldn't the same thing happen on a larger scale all over the planet?
CHS is a systems thinker, not a historian or a student of human nature. Just as relativity theory breaks down inside a black hole, systems theory can't account for human behaviour.
This is the only reason why I have been on this computer every day for 4 years, focused almost exclusively on spreading links and reading. In 500 years, if this is not sopped, the masses will curse our graves as they struggle to live one more day in unbelievable conditions, with no hope of escape. I refuse to die thinking I did not do everything I could to stop this mad man's experiment.
Well just so much. I don't think so.
There is but one fact: This state of affairs can not last forever. But when it wil break down nobody knows. Unfortunatly we've seen empires going down and most of the time it means a lot of violence will happen. I'm not that hopeful we do get along without violence this time. So that means "many-of-us-here" will not survive it. That's the "fact" which is given for me.
I really would be happy if it turned out to be wrong. That would give me a better chance of survival (or the survival of my kids).
The sheer brutal power of states is a very big problem...
If this is successful, Americans will be moved off their land. The owners of the debt will call in the debt and the land is collateral. Sum it up. America has been the victim of a predatory lender (Fed) and has, indirectly, financed the force in place to orderly begin to cleanse the population, workers only.
You feel worried? That's because your country is under seige. DHS is protecting what they are about to say is someone else's land, the holder of the debt. Agenda 21 on the ground has taken inventory.
If this situation is to turn around, you'd have to seize the assets of the central banks of the world. Globalization has used US wealth to fund their mad plan.
I am sure that there are many members of the armed forces that are smart and know good from evil and would uphold the consitution in times of great social strife. However, the one relative that I have in the military whom I know well, is as dumb as dirt and would readily shoot anyone he was told to shoot. And he is in his early 50s for god's sake. On the bright side he is such an incompetent moron that he would probably miss. He would probably release as much info as Snowden, but by accident!
There will be a big distinction between the regions that TPTB care about, and those that they don't. It's like that already!!!! We *already* have total social breakdown in Detroit, Newark, Camden, and so on. We also have it, I've been told, in rural areas of the Pacific Northwest; you risk your life going through them because of the drug producers. It is true that Waco was savagely attacked, but there are thousands of "compounds" out there that the government ignores. Of course when they go in to make an example, they do it horribly and stupidly and choose badly, but they don't usually go in.
Which areas will TPTB monitor, control, enter and subdue? Well, the ones that they can tax. The ones that have resources they want. Like I said, we see this already with Detroit and the like. There's nothing TPTB want there, so it's largely abandoned. You don't see the U.S. military going in there, even though there is *presently* far more social breakdown than we're likely to see in many future areas.
There is not an infinite amount of man-power for the government to control everyone, and they won't waste it if they can't get tax money or other stuff out of the area. I wonder if they even know that northern Maine exists. If people there didn't get Social Security checks, they probably wouldn't even be on a gubmint map.
It will be interesting to see what *local* authorities do, when they can't squeeze enough taxes out of the populace. That's happening already, all over the place. But that is a different matter. They will probably just take a lot of bribes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WyI5OpfsnoA
Agenda 21 to the rescue. United Nations Offerings at a local level that promise to deliver "sustainability." Grants are issued which keep the lights on. Trace those grants back to US Treasury. Nonbindable yet "living" document that can determine where you live, how you live, travel, spend your money, use the resources, intake/output - all monitored en masse. Inventory, compilation of data. It's a seige by an Army of Suits and Dresses with pens and a checkbooks (US tax dollars). Blighting land and depleting its value to nothing has happened.
This is good video if you have time.
The next American Revolution will be when the producers throw up their hands and say "screw it, whats the point in this anymore", and join the leach-phuk army, and quit producing. It's already happening. Just wait until the amnesty for the illegals is passed, you will have 30+ million of them eligible for every entitlement under the sun. I read a study last year that claimed this would cost taxpayers a trillion plus dollars over the next five short years. Add in another trillion for Obamacare. WHERE IS ALL OF THIS MONEY GOING TO HAVE TO COME FROM? If you guessed us, your correct. Only God knows how much this war on Syria is going to end up costing us. There IS a breaking point. It can't be too far away.
At this phase, if you're an honest, hard-working person, you're fucking stupid.
Yeah, I'm stupid. Too complacement to do anything, but I live out in nowherefuckistan, too far for the city rabble to get to loot... but I'm worried about the 'billies and what they might do.
This is already happening. Question ishow will fed gov respond? over 50% in my neighborhood homeschool and get meat and veg and eggs from local farms. employment rate drops as people drop out to stay home. i am lower middle class. we live on one income. sold a bunch of stuff got rid of cable tv smartphone etc. grow garden stopped buying on credit. if enough people do that i would think institutional power would weaken - unless they take our rights to do these things away. and then...i go to war!
Looks more like collapse not revolution. It will be the top tier, as usual, kicking and screaming like little bitches all the way down and fucking us every step of the way.
we have the biggest intell ops in the world: CIA, NSA,DIA, various mil intell ops- do any of us on ZH think these guys do not know about TBTF, FED, corruption in .gov? voter fraud via diebolt?? were are the honest americans who will defend the constituion in these organizations? areTHEY somehow different from the common soldier/sailer?
this has depressed hope I would have that the police state can be stopped, that Corzine walks free. and has not had an accident is litmus to what I see.
More people speaking out like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGD6O283ipo
Your article sounds logical but leaves out an important aspect. In this case, the fed govt intends for the collapse of the currency and therefore the financial system. (An obama spokesman, early in the obama years, commented that their intention was to "kill the dollar".) Their desire is to destroy all the underpinnings of the Republic and then use the chaos to impose tyranny. Therefore, the logical succession of events that you've indicated aren't really in the cards. This isn't govt mindlessly going from one failure to another, these are all calculated failures to overload ever aspect of the system.