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19 Reasons To Be Deeply Concerned About The Global Economy

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Is the global economic downturn going to accelerate as we roll into the second half of this year?  There is turmoil in the Middle East, we are seeing things happen in the bond markets that we have not seen happen in more than 30 years, and much of Europe has already plunged into a full-blown economic depression.  Sadly, most Americans will never understand what is happening until financial disaster strikes them personally.  As long as they can go to work during the day and eat frozen pizza and watch reality television at night, most of them will consider everything to be just fine. 

Unfortunately, the truth is that everything is not fine.  The world is becoming increasingly unstable, we are living in the terminal phase of the greatest debt bubble in the history of the planet and the global financial system is even more vulnerable than it was back in 2008.  Unfortunately, most people seem to only have a 48 hour attention span at best these days.  They don't have the patience to watch long-term trends develop.  And the coming economic collapse is not going to happen all at once.  Rather, it is like watching a very, very slow-motion train wreck happen. 

The coming economic nightmare is going to unfold over a number of years.  Yes, there will be moments of great panic, but mostly it will be a steady decline into economic oblivion.  And there are a lot of indications that the second half of this year is not going to be as good as the first half was.  

The following are 19 reasons to be deeply concerned about the global economy as we head into the second half of 2013...

#1 The velocity of money in the United States has plunged to an all-time low.  It is extremely difficult to have an "economic recovery" if banks are not lending money and people are not spending it...

Velocity Of Money

#2 The fall of the Egyptian government threatens to bring even more instability to the Middle East.  In response to the events in Egypt, the price of oil rose to more than 101 dollars a barrel on Wednesday.

#3 Every time the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has risen over $3.80 in the past three years, a stock market decline has always followed.

#4 As the world becomes increasingly unstable, massive citizen protest movements have been rising all over the globe...

The protests have many different origins. In Brazil people rose up against bus fares, in Turkey against a building project. Indonesians have rejected higher fuel prices, Bulgarians the government’s cronyism.


In the euro zone they march against austerity, and the Arab spring has become a perma-protest against pretty much everything. Each angry demonstration is angry in its own way.

#5 The European sovereign debt crisis is flaring up once again.  This time it is Portugal's turn to take center stage...

From Greece to Cyprus, Slovenia to Spain and Italy, and now most pressingly Portugal, where the finance and foreign ministers resigned in the space of two days, a host of problems is stirring after 10 months of relative calm imposed by the European Central Bank.


Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho told the nation in an address late on Tuesday that he did not accept the foreign minister's resignation and would try to go on governing.


If his government does end up collapsing, as is now more likely, it will raise immediate questions about Lisbon's ability to meet the terms of the 78-billion-euro bailout it agreed with the EU and International Monetary Fund in 2011.

#6 It is being projected that Italy will need a major EU bailout within six months.

#7 Bond investors are starting to panic.  In fact, even prominent firms such as Pimco are seeing investors pull massive amounts of money out right now...

In June, investors pulled $9.6bn from Bill Gross’s flagship fund at Pimco, the largest single month of outflows at the fund since Morningstar records began in 1993, the investment research firm said.

The outflows came after investors pulled $1.3bn from the fund in May, which marked the first outflows since December 2011.

Overall, a whopping 80 billion dollars was pulled out of bond funds during June.

#8 Central banks are selling off staggering amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds right now.

#9 U.S. mortgage bonds just suffered their largest quarterly decline in nearly 20 years.

#10 We continue to buy far more from the rest of the world than they buy from us.  The U.S. trade deficit for the month of May was 45.0 billion dollars.

#11 The severe drought that the western half of the United States is suffering never seems to end.  What will it do to food prices if ranchers and farmers out west have to go through another summer like they did last year?

#12 European car sales have fallen to a 20 year low.

#13 Unemployment in the eurozone is at an all-time high.

#14 Could the paper gold Ponzi scheme be on the verge of crumbling?  There are reports that there is now a 100 day delay for gold owners to take physical delivery of their gold from some warehouses owned by the London Metal Exchange...

We’re told that bullion-buyers in London must now wait more than 100 days to take delivery of the bullion for which they have already paid.


The comedic drones at Bloomberg, and officials of the London Metal Exchange itself would have us believe this is due to “warehouse queues.” While precious metals bulls undoubtedly appreciate the imagery implied of a 100-day line-up of armored cars waiting to load their bullion – in the middle of this “bear market” – the implication is fallacious.


In an era of just-in-time inventories; the notion that there can be a 100-day backlog to load bullion into armored cars with the metal already sitting in the warehouse is ludicrous. Clearly what the LME is really reporting here is a greater-than-three-month delay to refine the gold (or silver) being purchased here – and then ship it to their warehouse.


In other words, the “bullion” which traders believe they are purchasing today is in fact merely ore which hasn’t even been dug out of the ground yet.

#15 The number of mortgage applications in the United States is falling at the fastest rate in more than 3 years.

#16 Real disposable income in the United States is falling at the fastest rate in more than 4 years.

#17 The percentage of companies issuing negative earnings guidance for this quarter is at a level that we have never seen before.

#18 Is the dark side of derivatives trading about to be exposed?  EU officials claim that 13 major international banks have been colluding to control the trading of derivatives...

The European Commission says many of the world's largest investment banks appear to have colluded to block attempts by exchanges to trade and offer more transparent prices for financial products known as credit derivatives.


The commission, the executive arm of the European Union, said Monday it has informed 13 banks — including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley — as well as the industry association for derivatives itself, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, ISDA, of the preliminary conclusions of an investigation that began in March.

#19 There are 441 trillion dollars of interest rate derivatives sitting out there and interest rates have risen rapidly over the past few weeks.  What is going to happen to those derivatives if interest rates keep going higher?


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Fri, 07/05/2013 - 16:50 | 3724767 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Peak oil and the end of the growth paradigm is the only thing we really need to concern ourselves with...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:06 | 3724821 CH1
CH1's picture

That matters, of course, but I still say the biggest problem is Peak Obedience.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:11 | 3724835 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

just DONT buy gold or miners stocks....that's ALL you're supposed to know.....sell them to me

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:29 | 3724874 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

For once I'd like the "Economic Collapse Blog" to report some good news.  just to confuse everyone.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:36 | 3724898 CPL
CPL's picture


Stock holders of winzip are ecstatic.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:58 | 3724979 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

20. The system is Criminal, run by Criminals for Criminals.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:01 | 3724986 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

careful who you call 'criminal'... kito might send you off to a Neil Diamond concert for sensitivity training...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:32 | 3725065 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

To me, most of these "19 reasons to be deeply concered" actually look like good things.

The economy isn't like gravity - as if we're to be worried that suddenly the foundations of nature are being unmoored - economy is a system invented and run by humans. If you think it's working well, then you should be concerned.

If you think it needs some changes, most of this is welcome news.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:12 | 3725179 Shocker
Shocker's picture

20) Unemployment issue. Everyone knows this, but a weak job market affects everything.


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:30 | 3725227 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

21)  The Zimmerman Trial.  There is no issue anywhere in the world as important as this battle for the hearts and minds....

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:22 | 3725510 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

10yr broke out today, finished the day above 2.72.  That's very significant, yet no one is talking about it.


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 22:20 | 3725651 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Seriously - what the hell caused the jump? That's huge.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:46 | 3725912 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Fat finger on the sell button....

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 07:19 | 3726023 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture





When do we hit peak stupidity?


Can we please undo the total transformation now?


They promised Nirvana...and gave us hell.



Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:59 | 3726134 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

#1 and only: a corrupt scumbag puppet of a criminal banking cartel is elected TWICE as leader of the free world.


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 23:11 | 3725719 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

An inflection point is coming for the economy as a whole...

The banksters are spiking interest rates (central banks selling record American debt) as the organic economy collapses (thrid chart down):

The organic economy is contracting at $500 billion a quarter in spite of $2.5 trillion in Fed and government deficits.

It looks ot me like the banksters are setting the stage where they claim they can't lend more money and then the economy is collapsing in a black hole of credit destruction.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 02:23 | 3725936 WarriorClass
WarriorClass's picture

Nothing that importing 30 Million Mexicans won't fix.



Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:35 | 3725239 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

We have been hoodwinked, plain and simple...our life, our parents life and our childrens life.


It did not have to be this way. This is way above and beyond greed.


Something massive is being kept away and hidden from the masses...

...the truth.


Someone(s) knows something significant.


Now what do we do? Go vote eh? lol

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:06 | 3725879 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

DNA harvest.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 07:10 | 3726021 Incubus
Incubus's picture

Truth is that you and I have no freedom.


We're born into a slave class, and we'll die here. We have the freedom of irrelevency. As long as it doesn't matter, we've got a choice.


We're born to be used.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:59 | 3726138 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

We register our marriages through licenses and our children through certificates of birth...

Anything you have to register, you don't really own.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:05 | 3726141 CPL
CPL's picture

And the quickest way to remedy the situation is not help, turn your back and walk away.  Giving another power is as easy as taking it away.  Don't need a gun for that.


Just will.  And the willingness to find people that wish to stay out of the troubles and work together.  Kind of like asking everyone on earth to jump at once.  But I'm sure once nobody thought they would be offering their unconditional feality to a 'king' or a 'queen' either.  But there it is.  Just walk away, sit back and find something else to do while waiting.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:01 | 3725452 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

down vote for slander against the semetic tom-jones. neil takes lots of pussy francis, you should know better.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 03:53 | 3725973 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:03 | 3724981 Surly Bear
Surly Bear's picture

It's not a problem until it's a problem. Sorry, I just don't give a shit.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:10 | 3725171 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

If you didn't give a shit you wouldn't be reading this you'd be watching Oprah and drinking a tall cool one.


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:26 | 3725367 Clever Name
Clever Name's picture

+1 for getting me to drink a tall cool one.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 22:59 | 3725703 max2205
max2205's picture

This is bullish to all the algo traders out there

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:52 | 3725916 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Okra with beer?

Hell, get a pizza with that beer.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 06:21 | 3726008 Incubus
Incubus's picture

mmm okra beer

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:16 | 3726162 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"You get a tall cool one...and you get a tall cool one...and you get a tall cool one..."

check under your seat

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:05 | 3725805 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

I think you do.  I always heard the bear does shit in the woods.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:41 | 3725858 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Say, do you know if the pope is catholic by any chance?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:30 | 3725379 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

BK, the good news is 10-year bonds soared to ov er 2.7% and more people are quitting their jobs---"sure signs of row-bust grote"...MSM spinmeisters said today.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:30 | 3724883 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Pretty amazing watching big dealers like APMEX and Tulving getting cleaned out right now.

No physical demand? Yeah, that's it. 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:09 | 3725007 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

You know people write this quite often but then I go check the sites and see it wrong - as I did again with your comment. Why do you write this when it is incorrect?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:28 | 3725052 pointer
pointer's picture

he's probably underwater and bought silver at 40.  Me, I bought it in between 8 &15 per oz, back when Zero Hedge didn't have as many trolls posting comments on the boards.

The amount of mindless drivel that people post here nowadays is pathetic.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 15:51 | 3726751 Motorboat
Motorboat's picture

Maybe it's because people  here were allowed to speak the truth before, even point out that most of the criminals are Jewish, and almost all the biggest ones for sure?

Now that the brains have left or been silenced, what's left?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:31 | 3725380 Clever Name
Clever Name's picture

While phyzz demand may be very high right now all over the world, 'getting cleaned out' to me would imply some kind of shortage. Not "Orders ship in 2-3 days".

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:24 | 3726173 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Tulving, the largest dealer in the country, is experiencing delays of 7-8 weeks, or more in many cases.

That is about equal to what happened after the 2008 crash, and it isn't over yet.  We haven't even bottomed yet, and already there are these kinds of delays.

And Tulving is hedged.  They don't pull invenory because the price goes down.  If they did, they would be a local coin shop, not the largest bullion dealer in the US.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:45 | 3726195 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

It took Tulving 5 weeks to ship a friend 1 monster box of Eagles...ordered in may, delivered in June.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:33 | 3725540 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

They say they're out, but they're not - they're just not going to sell at this level.  Au and Ag are going through the mother of shakeouts right now, as prophesied.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:26 | 3726176 tmosley
tmosley's picture

But that's wrong, you fucking retard.

(Large online sellers HEDGE, and as thus are immune to spot price fluctuation, making money off the spread).

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 10:12 | 3726223 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

And this is NOT good for Tulving's reputation.  No reason to do this, unless you knew a reset was imminent, any way.  No, buyers outnumber sellers, so its difficult to get your hands on physical.  Its as simple as that.

And on the paper markets, its now reversed.  You can't find many buyers of paper gold (thank God, people are waking up).

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:27 | 3724871 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Peak obedience does not appear to be a problem.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:38 | 3724904 mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

i'm only deeply concerned someone's gonna call me a racist for my love of the English language and my love for my children against the stasi and put me in prison.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:53 | 3724958 justamousesquared
justamousesquared's picture

The stasi are on their way. 

It's coming slowly but surely. One step at a time. William "Goebbels" Hague has our number here in the UK and Theresa May the dumb Ho has the hand on the gas chamber door for us all. 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:56 | 3724969 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Yes indeed,Sir.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:54 | 3725293 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Bravo, CH1, bravo!

"Sadly, most Americans will never understand what is happening until financial disaster strikes them personally."

Sadly, most Ameritards will never understand anything until it strikes them personally, which is why they are rightfully referred to as Oblivions! ! ! !

It is also referred to as the process of infantilization, something which sadly has been indoctrinated into them since birth, whether by the consumer mentality spewed forth at them 24 hours a day via cable, the movies, adverts, or Sesame Street (originally financed by David Rockefeller stooge, Peter G. Peterson, and created/produced by his wifey).

As far as derivatives (the last numbered item), that has been rigged from the getgo, and contrary to whorescum, Gillian Tett and that awful JPMC apologia of hers (Fools Gold), credit derivatives weren't invented within JPMorgan Chase, (although that insurance scam, credit default swaps were, thanx to Blythe Masters and company), but came into being from a consultant to the Resolution Trust Corporation to bail out the banksters during the S&L meltdown!

Those financial exchanges are ALL owned by the banks/oil companies, so some of those remarks on this blog and the USA Today article were highly specious in nature!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 23:05 | 3725708 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

sgt doom:  "Sadly, most Ameritards will never understand anything until it strikes them personally, which is why they are rightfully referred to as Oblivions! ! ! !

It is also referred to as the process of infantilization, something which sadly has been indoctrinated into them since birth, whether by the consumer mentality spewed forth at them 24 hours a day via cable, the movies, adverts, or Sesame Street"

So true. Many American 'men' are mental children. There are family members who I can't get to discuss these issues and what it might mean for all of us. But they get all excited when winning a local basketball tournament or playing golf. WTF is wrong with with them ? - - - The dumbing down of people in this society is no accident.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 02:59 | 3725955 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

Listen carefully...

I want you to hit me as hard as you can.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 06:34 | 3726011 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

"Sadly, most Ameritards will never understand anything until it strikes them personally...

whereupon they will still not bother to understand it, but blame somebody else, and then demand a bailout/handout. 

The culture of dependence will be the end of Western Civilization. A nation of mental children has never produced a civilization, nor will be able to maintain one.

In the Land of Cheap & Easy, only The Difficult is worth doing. And do it quietly, lest the parasites come to demand their "fair share" of your endevour.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:56 | 3726130 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

I stopped trying to convince people of anything that I think I see coming down the pike, because they (nice people that they may be) just don't want to hear it. So, get ready, and pick your metaphor or pick your aphorism to use when the time comes:

They have ears but can't hear, and eyes but can't see.


If I told you once, I told you a thousand times.


I kept trying to tell you, but you just wouldn't listen.


I tried talking to you any number of times.


Many are called, but few are chosen.


Remember all those books I told you about.


What are you going to do now?


Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:07 | 3726147 CPL
CPL's picture

Never try to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and it annoys the pig.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:06 | 3725318 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

This post mentions the article below:

Is this really new?

Let's take a look at several much older incident articles:

The above resulted from the below:

[God bless FDR (President Roosevelt) and Wright Patman!]

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:07 | 3724823 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh, and the real fun starts when we roll off the plateau...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:39 | 3724911 CPL
Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:44 | 3725083 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

This is what people should actually be concerned about.


Interestingly, the TV news often talks about the sheer terror of a choppy economy (if you consider corporate earnings and bond yields economy, which really concerns only a very small fraction of the Earth's population) meanwhile the environment - which will ultimately decide whether the human race survives or not -is a rarely discussed afterthought. 

Oh well..


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:03 | 3725154 CPL
CPL's picture

All you need to do is look at geological records and look for fossils.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:34 | 3726110 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

The deepest irony is that doing nothing about the environment assures us of choppier economics down the road, even if we do manage to survive.


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:00 | 3725149 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Neither....Frozen Pitza's

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 07:13 | 3726024 Incubus
Incubus's picture

We can probably make due in a oil scarce world, after the initial die off.


Water scarcity is a man-made issue. We've got a planet full of water.  We'll start sucking up the oceans when we're forced to.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:36 | 3726112 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You do not have a world full of potable water, or the means to generate enough to meet demand (unless that die-off is spectacular indeed), and you don't have the energy to desalinate oceans.

You can live a life of basic subsistence sucking dewdrops off a solar still at best.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:14 | 3726158 CPL
CPL's picture

You are using the pronoun 'we' when you should be doing the footwork to first cover the "I".  

Scale, education, knowledge, will...all sort of things are assumed.  Without the individual doing something about it there is no 'we'.  The currency carrot will eventually be pointless unless something of value is determined to bind the 'we' together.  It destroys governing bodies, companies, friendships, families, lovers is various scales all the time.  Society doesn't do that, individuals making 7 billion individual choices do that.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:49 | 3724940 tempo
tempo's picture

social unrest is good!! for billionaires. Millions of full time jobs are eliminated each year due to automation. 1/3 of college grads are geeks and do fine in then new economy, the rest are screwed. No hope, no future and it will only get worse. Central banks must fund consumption to keep social order and the media divert attention to meaningless issues. In the 3 rd world where millions of young people live w/o a future, they turn to religious radicalism as a way to relieve the enormous pressure. The lack of jobs is the issue and it will can't be resolved. So les miserable!!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:00 | 3725304 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

"1/3 of college grads are geeks and do fine in then new economy.."

How many times during the last 30 years have I spoken with engineering grads, computer science grads, et al., and heard they are having a helluva time finding employment?

Quite a few times, quite a number of times!

Your repetition of the American NonMedia whorescum's talking points don't make it so, douchetard, it only displays your chronic ignorance and/or stupidity (we all start off ignorant, but after the age of 30 or 35, to remain ignorant is to be certifiably stoooopid!

(And quit repeating the US Chamber of Commerce's (USCoC) talking point:  new economy!  You are making me puke, sonny!)


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:08 | 3724825 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

yeah, exactly. "without oil prices soaring equities will never go higher." the funny thing would be if Saudi Arabia really was out of oil actually! hahahahahahahaha! that would mean "petro dollars" would be over instantly and the Kingdom would be in deep doo-doo. talk about a "London Whale." More like a Leviathan.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:37 | 3725053 Newager23
Newager23's picture

Ten reasons why gold has to go to $3,000.

1. The USA, the biggest economy in the world, has been living off of debt to maintain our standard of living and to create growth. We have been playing a dangerous game since 1980 of living off of the reserve currency of the world (ignoring both our trade deficits and budget deficits). Now we have $10+ trillion of debt that requires interest payments (from budget deficits), and our manufacturing sector (from trade deficits) has been hallowed out. Our federal debt has gotten so large, that we can't service it without the Fed printing money to purchase it. Moreover, our ability to generate wealth has been neutered to the point where we have become dependent on Fed stimulus to prevent a depression.

2. Oil, the engine of the economy, is no longer cheap. Without cheap energy, robust growth is no longer possible. In fact, I would argue that without cheap energy, global growth is problematic at best, and a crisis waiting to happen at worst.

3. Taxes and regulations have crushed small business. Many companies have to cheat to make a profit. These taxes and regulations are not going away and will not be curtailed. Thus, starting and growing a business has become very difficult. This difficulty factors into bank loans which have dried up.

4. Demographics in the USA and Europe are impinging growth in a negative way (older is not better). The baby boomers are past their prime spending years and are no longer an engine for consumer spending. Moreover, affluent families are having fewer children, which is impacting growth in a variety of consumer spending habits (fewer is not better). 

5. Governments have gotten so large that they are squeezing the private sector into paying more taxes. This is a huge growth prohibitor. Governments are machines that grow at rapid rates. They suck the life out of the economy. Why? Because they do not generate wealth. Those myriad of government jobs are paid for by the private sector. But the private sector can only squeeze so much blood out of a turnip.   

6. Healthcare costs are out of control and impacting many families and business in a detrimental way. In the US, healthcare is sucking up 18% of GDP. It is by far the largest industry. And it is largely inefficient and wasteful. A big part of government spending and debt is from healthcare. And because it is only going to get worse, it is like a giant sucking sound strangling our future.  

7. The financial system has become a ponzi scheme with the bond market and derivatives ready to blow up. The large banks in the US, in which there are really less than 10, are mostly insolvent and under-capitalized. They have huge exposure to derivatives that they cannot pay. If one bank goes down, the whole system breaks. Our backstop is to rely on the Fed to bail everyone out. But what happens if there is a run on government bonds and no one want to own our worthless paper? Or if foreigners begin to dump the dollar? This can’t happen? We will be up to $20 trillion in debt by 2020. If interest rates go up only marginally, we are bankrupt.

8. The financial system has become so manipulated that valuations are impossible to make. Investors are basing their decisions on delusions. We are living in an era of manipulated interest rates, where the bond market is purchased with digital play money. And these interest rates are the basis for the very foundation of the economy: bonds, mortgages, bank loans, risk, business investment, etc. Everything hinges on the cost of debt, yet it has been manipulated to the point where no one knows the real value of money or risk.

9. The government no longer respects its citizens and instead collects their private information. You might not think of this as a reason to own gold, but to me it correlates closely to the economic reasons. Why? Because it is an omen, a clue of what is coming. When the government, who is supposed to exist FOR the people, begins to treat the people as untrustworthy, then the end is nigh.

10. The political system is broken with gridlock and no possibility for solutions. This is the ultimate reason why gold is going to blast off. How many of you trust or respect our politicians? I could call them a dozen names and I think you would agree with my labels. It has gotten so bad, that our level of trust has dropped below 20%. It has gotten so bad, that it reminds me of the movie Bullworth with Warren Beatty.

He plays a California Senator running for re-election and hires someone to murder him. Then, while he has a few days left to live, he decides to tell the people the truth. He literally makes a mockery of our political system, but it hits close to the truth. In my favorite scene, he is interviewed on live TV, and rips the interviewer by telling the truth. He starts rapping the truth. And the truth is that our economic and social systems are rigged to protect the affluent. Bullworth tells everyone that the game is rigged, and those at the top are making sure that nothing changes. That is the mess we are in today. We can’t solve our problems, because the starting point would be to admit that the game is rigged! We can’t solve our problems, because those at the top are holding the strings, and they will not let go of those strings. Instead they will do everything in their power to pretend that the status quo will lead to a good outcome. Did you notice how Detroit was allowed to rot and go bankrupt? Who’s next?

So, my point is that we have serious problems, but the approach to solving those problems is to believe that our economic and social systems are sound. Well, I’m telling you they are not. As Einstein so eloquently stated, "We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them". (mining stocks)


Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:52 | 3725124 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"We can’t solve our problems, because the starting point would be to admit that the game is rigged! We can’t solve our problems, because those at the top are holding the strings, and they will not let go of those strings. Instead they will do everything in their power to pretend that the status quo will lead to a good outcome."


kito ~ You must be around here somewhere...

Please inform this poor soul that the game is being "rigged" by limestone buildings...

There are no people 'at the top' or, 'holding any strings'... It's all a mirage...

There's not even any 'doing everything in THEIR power'... Iran [which doesn't have a Rothschild controlled central bank] is surrounded by American military bases that built themselves... They just sprung up out of the desert... Saddam Hussein, Khadaffi, Chavez... Those guys never existed...


If there are any 'THEY' involved in this... they are nice people who you got to get to know personally... Your dinner invitation is probably in the mail as we speak...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:05 | 3725315 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

You must have pissed her off- she won't even engage you in tet-a-tet any more.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:32 | 3725383 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

kito got all bunched up on an earlier thread today...


He seems to think that all I need to do is to sit down with a group of these people & 'get to know them' & my whole world view will change...

I've got news for you... I can't even sit down with MY OWN FAMILY MEMBERS and discuss reality... Why?... Because every last one of them would fall apart if the 'Fed Debt Money controlled world' were to vanish...

I was joking about Neil Diamond earlier [but I really wasn't joking]... I was at my mom's house for the 4th of July & she was sitting there watching the fireworks show on TV... She's watching Neil Diamond do the now standardized 'Praise the Troops' ritual, watching all the people on the Capitol steps swaying & singing... Her favorite shows on TV are CSI [& all that 'police state' propaganda bullshit]... Sometimes I can get thru to her general things, like, 'Fuck the Banks'... But the larger picture is too difficult for her to comprehend... And even when she does try to understand it, she has to shut me down [because something in her brain probably snaps & can't fathom what would happen to her if the ILLUSION were to disappear]...

So kito... How do you suppose I'd do with a bunch of your friends? With kids?, nice houses?, community status?, cars?, lifestyles?... I can't imagine they'd be much interested in anything I have to say about HOW that all is glued together...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:36 | 3725392 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"He seems to think that all I need to do is to sit down with a group of these people & 'get to know them' & my whole world view will change..."

please point me to this thread.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:21 | 3725509 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's the "Opportunity Squandered... WE Blew It" thread...

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 10:34 | 3726242 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

There are a lot of good people in the world, who unfortunately have been co-opted or basically blackmailed, into supporting the status quo.  Think of your average member of the bureaucracy.  All they know is that they have had steady, easy employment with benefits for the last 20+ years.  That they will never see the benefits promised to them is OUTRAGEOUS, and UNFATHOMABLE.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 07:28 | 3726028 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

I'd like to help, but the TV has your family now.

There is nothing I nor anyone else can do...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:34 | 3725545 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

coral castle made of limestone.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 23:42 | 3725753 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

didya know that that guy's (the one in the doc, not EdL) book is not available in the Official Coral Castle Giftshop?  why do you ask?   because...there was an ancient swatiska symbol (from somewhere in Asia) on the page (in a chapter on how the ancients viewed energy flow) and the now "owners" of the land objected to the image (you can guess why).   guy even offered to take that page out, and they refused to talk to him.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 10:08 | 3726218 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

rife, reich, tesla, van tassel, leedskalnin......what would this place be like if they could have spoken?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:50 | 3725101 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Peak oil and the end of the growth paradigm is the only thing we really need to concern ourselves with...

B...b...b...but what about Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, Flakster? Sure, we had the coldest spring on record here in the Southeast and so far are having the coldest summer. And sure, the planet has greened dramitically due not to carbon pollution but carbon enrichment 

But that doesn't mean CAGW isn't what we don't need to concern ourselves with the most, does it?

In any case, you'll be glad to know that I'm with you on Peak Oil — at least Peak "Jed Clampett" Oil — as the up-from-the-ground-come-a-bubblin'-crude is long gone.

But the real peak, I hasten to add, is that of the nation-state, as it winces amid the priapic pain of an economic hard-on that shot its wad years ago and is only maintained by the Viagra of money printing.

As the nation-state gets less and less bang for its buck, in other words, the date rape that is the only means by which it has ever been able to maintain a relationship with humanity is coming to an end.

Time for it to go fuck itself.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:20 | 3725353 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

and yet in July 2012 you had the hottest summer on record, and every year for 15 years has been hotter than any of the years before it, recorded ever.

What to do?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:56 | 3725436 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

Drink lots of water?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:11 | 3725475 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

...pssst... they gotta thaw out the arctic.... shhhh...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:28 | 3725531 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture


whoever has a sandy vagina and/or freezing cottage lake in July, see link.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 23:46 | 3725738 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Sorry, MDB (appreciating your knock-off on the original), but even Global Warming's equivalent of Command Central admits that there hasn't been any warming since 1997:

What to do?

Pump out more CO2:

And otherwise duck for cover.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:17 | 3725808 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Here, let's play a game,  here is the data, show me that the trend has signifigantly changed as you say.

Tell me the numbers that you got and how you got them... Go ahead, show that you can at least play the denier game and not simply talk the talk...

BTW, before you make a fool of yourself with some point to point "trend", I suggest you read this to get an idea of how a trend is really measured.

PS Forgot to ask, if GW stopped in 1997 (or whatever), why was to 2001-2010 decade the hottest decade in the instrumental record. And how every decade since 1950 has been progressively warmer

The above came out this past week from the World Meterological Organization. Be sure to check the pretty pictures at the bottom...

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:20 | 3725887 slimething
slimething's picture

Ok, I like games. I'll play your game.  Below is the data source and the charts from WFT, prepared just for you. John Cook and Tamino (aka Grant Foster) are two of the most dishonest scallywags on the issue of "global warming". Want to know when they are lying? When you read their posts.

This chart contains only the slope with CO2. Notice anything odd?


And here's the spaghetti graph showing all the data points and slopes without CO2.


So here's what you've got. Below was analyzed based on data through the month of May. I'm not going to update it because it is time consuming. However, you can see by looking at the above graphs, June is not changing the slope noticeably, but where it does it is going down. Included is SST (#5).

1. For GISS, the slope is flat since January 2001 or 12 years, 4 months. (goes to April)
2. For Hadcrut3, the slope is flat since March 1, 1997 or 16 years, 1 month. (goes to March 31, 2013)
3. For a combination of GISS, Hadcrut3, UAH and RSS, the slope is flat since December 2000 or 12 years, 6 months. (This goes to May. I realize that Hadcrut3 is not up to date, but on the basis of its present slope and the latest numbers that I do have from the other three sets. I am confident that I can make this prediction.)
4. For Hadcrut4, the slope is flat since November 2000 or 12 years, 6 months. (goes to April)
5. For Hadsst2, the slope is flat from March 1, 1997 to April 30, 2013, or 16 years, 2 months.
6. For UAH, the slope is flat since January 2005 or 8 years, 5 months. (goes to May)
7. For RSS, the slope is flat since December 1996 or 16 years and 6 months.

But I'll do you even better using the SkS source you provided Ready?

On six different data sets, there has been no statistically significant warming for between 18 and 23 years. Do you understand what 'no statistically significant' means? I didn't think so. Go read up on it.

For RSS the warming is not significant for over 23 years.
For RSS: +0.123 +/-0.131 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1990
For UAH the warming is not significant for over 19 years.
For UAH: 0.142 +/- 0.166 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hadcrut3 the warming is not significant for over 19 years.
For Hadcrut3: 0.092 +/- 0.112 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hadcrut4 the warming is not significant for over 18 years.
For Hadcrut4: 0.093 +/- 0.108 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995
For GISS the warming is not significant for over 18 years.
For GISS: 0.103 +/- 0.111 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995
For NOAA the warming is not significant for over 18 years.
For NOAA: 0.085 +/- 0.104 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995


Now let's play another game. You provide the climate models or individuals pimping AGW that correctly predicted the warming of the last 25 years. If you need some help I'm happy to save you the time. The answer is none. Then you can find for me the predictions for SST, OHC, precipitation, water vapor and anything else you care to conjure up related to climate models (the holy sacrament of AGW promoters). 

Or we can discuss glacier melt. Would you like to get educated on that?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:25 | 3725905 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Cut and paste bullshit....

Go ahead, show me with the data, its all there where I linked it...

Was monthly data used, or annual averages, do you ever understand the question? If you don't you really shouldn't be arguing about data, should you?

Here is a prediction from 40 years ago:

Wow, if there was a single economist who could claim as good a call....

If I thought you had clue, I would suggest that you learn about a very simple climate model that demonstrates that without C02 from us, you cannot reproduce the data:

Be sure to follow the links for a complete description...

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:09 | 3726076 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Well done for trying, Flak, but these simpletons don't even understand that it isn't only about air temp and couldn't do a least squares regression to save their lives (literally).

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:38 | 3726188 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh, I didn't have the heart to tell him that cutting and pasting without attribution is intellectual dishonesty, but that is a standard MO at least among those that the asshats look to for guidance....

Least squares, autocorrelation etc.. are also lost on these unwitting fools... 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 10:44 | 3726251 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The whole AGW debate is IRRELEVANT.   I am not saying the climate changing is irrelevant.

Should we seek to control and manipulate the atmosphere?  IMO that would be a bad idea, because it relies on arrogance.  Trial and error with the climate at stake?  No thanks.

Most important though, what we should be discussing is, what is the core problem, and what is the solution?

I would contend that environmental degradation and pollution in general is a greater concern than ONLY CO2.

And flat out, I can say, I don't think Carbon Tax or Carbon credits will do anything except enrich the few. 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 18:21 | 3729051 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

It's completely relevant. If we can change how we burn / use fuels we can control the temperature and get more efficiency (profit) from our machines.
We're throwing chemicals & heat to the air & water needlessly. We're actually losing efficiency for the machines in doing so.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 18:20 | 3729050 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You have a lot of patience putting up with all the sandy vaginas with no brain in their heads who can't even read a thermometer, yet think they are chart-reading geniuses.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:56 | 3726208 slimething
slimething's picture

It is not cut and paste. Anyone can use WFT.

The data is linked to earch respective temperature product at WFT and is labeled on each graph.   I also used the source link to Skeptical Science that YOU provided.


Neither John Cook or Tamino address the issues of there being no warming for over 15 years. All they've got left is to play games.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 18:23 | 3729055 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

It's addressed here:

it's a hoax that there's no warming for 15 years. There's been warming every year and last July in America was certainly the hottest ever recorded.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:02 | 3726062 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

slimething, good show, but flak is absolutely sure AGW is real and hidding under his/its/her bed. Do not bring up water vapor Flak will not answer and will run to useless off topic questions - working for minimum wage posting AGW propaganda earns Flak his major income - thank god Flak your mom lets you keep a bed in her home.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:10 | 3726078 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I understand it's your turn to use the library computer, but can you hold off on masturbating until the other kids leave?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:06 | 3726132 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well my fine little fool, I have a question just for you...

We all know that WV is responsible for most of the Greenhouse Effect, but what would happen to the Earth's temperature if somehow all the C02 was removed from the atmosphere? Surely you know, don't you?

Well, since we know that you have no idea and are too lazy to find out for your own, you are going to get a quick lesson...

Remove the C02 and temperature will drop slightly and when that happens the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere will change as per the Clausius-Clayperon relationship. It will condense out as rain/snow. But with lower water vapor, the atmosphere will further cool off and you will get more WV condensing out of the atmosphere. To cut a long story short, after a few years, the Earth will be frozen ice ball at average temperature of roughly -20 C.....

The scientists who study the climate know this perfectly well and because of this C02 is seen as the important GHG that controls things not WV. It is the difference between a feedback and a forcing... It would seem that this important distinction is lost by out denier friends...

Now, as you can imagine WV cuts both ways if C02 levels rise...

PS Jokes about mommys and the like are really juvenile and only make you look like a twit....

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 10:48 | 3726257 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Remove the CO2?  WTF, are we playing in a sandbox or something?  All the plants die, all the animals die, we are all dead, the climate is irrelevant at that point.

Flak, you need to understand your type are being used by politicians to ram home the legislation the politicos and ultrawealthy want.  Thats it.  They aren't going to implement YOUR recommendations, your job is just to convince the public to "trust the experts".

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 13:31 | 3726499 slimething
slimething's picture

Dear Flakmeister,

   In all your ramblings, you forget to mention clouds. You know, those puffy white things in the sky. Do climate modelers have a good understanding of them and are they correctly simulated in the models?

Without running back to John Cook and Tamino, can you provide an actual scientific reference that rules out changing cloud cover that couild explain 100% changes in surface temperature? The reason I say that is oddly, there are dozens of published articles that discuss clouds and how climate models do not simulate them well.

For instance, I could not locate a reference at SkS or Tamino for the following:

[1] The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite provides robust and global direct measurements of the cloud vertical structure. The GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product is used to evaluate the simulated clouds in five climate models using a lidar simulator. The total cloud cover is underestimated in all models (51% to 62% vs. 64% in observations) except in the Arctic. Continental cloud covers (at low, mid, high altitudes) are highly variable depending on the model. In the tropics, the top of deep convective clouds varies between 14 and 18 km in the models versus 16 km in the observations, and all models underestimate the low cloud amount (16% to 25%) compared to observations (29%). In the Arctic, the modeled low cloud amounts (37% to 57%) are slightly biased compared to observations (44%), and the models do not reproduce the observed seasonal variation.


It seems like John Cook and Tamino have overlooked several published articles that run contrary to their meme. Another example, which apparently both of them must have simply overlooked, being so honest and objective:

Clouds are a key component of the climate system affecting radiative balances and the hydrological cycle. Previous studies from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) showed quite large biases in the simulated cloud climatology affecting all GCMs as well as a remarkable degree of variation among the models that represented the state of the art circa 2005. Here the progress that has been made in recent years is measured by comparing mean cloud properties, interannual variability, and the climatological seasonal cycle from the CMIP5 models with satellite observations and with results from comparable CMIP3 experiments. The focus is on three climate-relevant cloud parameters: cloud amount, liquid water path, and cloud radiative forcing. The comparison shows that intermodel differences are still large in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, and reveals some small improvements of particular cloud properties in some regions in the CMIP5 ensemble over CMIP3. In CMIP5 there is an improved agreement of the modeled interannual variability of liquid water path and of the modeled longwave cloud forcing over mid- and high-latitude oceans with observations. However, the differences in the simulated cloud climatology from CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally small, and there is very little to no improvement apparent in the tropical and subtropical regions in CMIP5.

Comparisons of the results from the coupled CMIP5 models with their atmosphere-only versions run with observed SSTs show remarkably similar biases in the simulated cloud climatologies. This suggests the treatments of subgrid-scale cloud and boundary layer processes are directly implicated in the poor performance of current GCMs in simulating realistic cloud fields.

You wouldn't happen to know if John Cook and Tamino have published on this matter do you? Maybe you should alert them to the above scientific articles

BTW, convection rules the day on the planet's surface. Without it, the average surface temperature would be roughly double.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 18:19 | 3726989 The Wedge
The Wedge's picture

Your doing mental gymnastics. Trying to make the science fit your theory. What you have is a belief system that the average christian would be green with envy at your level of faith.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 23:43 | 3729747 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

This is nonsense. Where I am, and weather maps are very consistent across the nation, temperatures have risen from a warmest -10 C in winter to +8 C in winter, over the past 30 years.

Summers to have gotten more brutal: we have more hotter days & the humidity is killer. The heat is enough that rain isn't so forthcoming for most regions that used to get it, meaning we just get stank humidity forever.

I think you finagled the URL's to show what you 'say' they show.

I can't see how they show what you CLAIM they show from how it's presented.


Oh look, now I can make it say what I want it to say.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:00 | 3726640 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Knock yourself out, Flakster, but bear in mind that it makes no difference as long as nation-states rule. For while few understand it (or anything else that actually matters), the crony capitalism of the corporate state — which, along with the US, includes China and Russia, as well as all the other nations-states under their influence/control — is responsible for all destruction, both environmental and economic. And labeling CO2 a pollutant is just one more way for our overlords to line their pockets and otherwise deprive us of life, liberty, and property.

As Orwell so prophetically wrote:

Everywhere there is the same pyramidal structure, the same worship of semi-divine leader, the same economy existing by and for continuous warfare. It follows that the three super-states not only cannot conquer one another, but would gain no advantage by doing so. On the contrary, so long as they remain in conflict they prop one another up, like three sheaves of corn. And, as usual, the ruling groups of all three powers are simultaneously aware and unaware of what they are doing. Their lives are dedicated to world conquest, but they also know that it is necessary that the war should continue everlastingly and without victory. 



The effect would be much the same if the three super-states, instead of fighting one another, should agree to live in perpetual peace, each inviolate within its own boundaries. For in that case each would still be a self-contained universe, freed for ever from the sobering influence of external danger. A peace that was truly permanent would be the same as a permanent war. This ... is the inner meaning of the slogan: War is Peace.



Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:09 | 3725813 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

For the love of all that is good, DON'T DO ANYTHING. YOU'LL JUST MAKE IT WORSE.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:32 | 3725852 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

more fans and cold drinks?

15 years ain't shit in the history of this planet. 15 years is what percent of 6 billion?

we are statistically more likely to be heading into an ice age than a hot age.

global warming is real, its called the sun. without it, it gets very cold and dark.

Worry about clean potable water and fracking if you need to have something to keep your panties in a wad at all times.

Global warming is out of our hands for the most part, even if mankind is somehow more powerful than the sun, we aren't likely to do anything other than kill each other and make some money doing it. It's what we are, deal with it.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 22:49 | 3725874 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You're missing the point: some jokers said the last 15 years saw no global warming at all. This single lie is countered. You want to go into a deeper battle, Flakmeister has all the facts to defeat any argument that global warming isn't changing our climate at a rate never seen before in the history of all life on Earth.

For the 6 sandy vaginas with red arrows:

you can't read a thermometer and yet you think you can trade stocks?

Until you can figure out the difference between "hotter" and "colder" I expect you to lose all your money good and fast. No wonder you bitchez complain about "rigged markets". You can't fucking tell up from down.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:08 | 3725877 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Truly spoken like a court jester, a truly Merry Prankster....

Slip in a little bit of truth and some "common sense" and everything seems fine. Sorry, but you are some what at odds with reality...

Sure, climate has changed before, difference is that now we are driving it at a pace not seen since Extinction Level events in the past. Speed kills, we took 200 million years of sequestered carbon and dumped it back in 200 years...

And since you are worried, well, by blowing past ~300 pmm C02 we can confortably rule out any Ice Age for the next 400,000 years...

A big clue is that C02 has not exceeded ~280 ppm in the past 800,000 years....

PS The radiative forcing from the C02 we have dumped up there is much greater than that from the Sun and has been been for about 40 years....

See for yourself:

You are now welcome to going back to entertaining us....

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 11:46 | 3726343 The Wedge
The Wedge's picture



"Sure, climate has changed before, difference is that now we are driving it at a pace not seen since Extinction Level events in the past. Speed kills, we took 200 million years of sequestered carbon and dumped it back in 200 years"

Uh, no. There have been many warming and cooling periods where C02 does not correspond with temperature. See here and here. And don't forget Hansen and others admission that in fact Vostok ice core samples proved that C02 levels proceed temperature. The data did not fit his theory so he altered (admittedly) the data to fit because as he put it, "the oceans would have boiled off". So the data had to be wrong, not his theory. Grade A science there! Interestingly, the accuracy of C02 levels in ice core samples have been called into serious question by others, albeit for more scientific reasons.



"And since you are worried, well, by blowing past ~300 pmm C02 we can confortably rule out any Ice Age for the next 400,000 years"

More assumptions based on C02. Comfortably rule out another ice age yet great periods of warming preceded and followed the last glacial period? Sure.

A few things about C02.

  1. Less than 5% of the atmosphere.
  2. Absorbs radiation (from the sun), hence it's classification as a greenhouse gas.
  3. Not the most offending GHG...water vapor has that distinction with methane second.
  4. It's RT (residency time) is popularly said to be 100 years based on the 1990 IPCC report.
  5. But C02's RT in the atmosphere is actually 5 years. See here. The IPCC report is misrepresented.
  6. Also, ocean temps are how you take a planets temperature. Air and land are not sufficient conductors of the global heat budget originating from the sun.


"PS The radiative forcing from the C02 we have dumped up there is much greater than that from the Sun and has been been for about 40 years"


Woo Hoo! You have solved the worlds energy problems and you had no idea. Considering unequal heating of the planet is climate or energy exchange and the suns radiation is the source of the heat, anthropogenic forcing cannot exceed the sun's input based upon the laws of thermal dynamics.

Point is simple: There is a lot of evidence that calls anthropogenic global warming into question. Enough that your in religious belief, pseudo science land.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 12:10 | 3728170 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

A few things about C02.


  1. Less than 5% of the atmosphere.

Uh, true, but also less than 1% AND ALSO LESS THAN .1%...  just sayin'...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 23:21 | 3725734 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It's only a catastrophe if you consider wiping out large portions of humanity to be untoward.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:18 | 3725830 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

Thank you Buttkiss for replying to the Flakster.  You said it well.  Now I don't have to.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:07 | 3725880 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You ain't even fit to wash his jockstrap, let alone carrying an intelligent debate on AGW....

PS Butkiss was full of shit...

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 12:21 | 3728183 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

You're calling full-of-shit?  That's funny.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 16:15 | 3728729 sgorem
sgorem's picture

for God's sake Flakemaster, aka. Minny Red Arrows, please desist and back away from your computer slowly! you've reached your RED ARROW quota for today. the Tylers are being overloaded and their shipment of RED ARROWS are in tansient and won't arrive until tomorrow. please, only discuss subjects that you know something about in the interim. thanks in advance, the management.................................

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:22 | 3725358 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Actually I'd turn a fair amount of focus to the new solar: hijacking electron channeling in the thylakoid. Not only does this mean harvesting solar energy as plants do it but if we're clever enough it means using electricity to supplant the input past the photon stage in photosynthesis - being able to grow crops in the dark.

We're far, far off from that but I'd keep my eyes open for that.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:16 | 3725823 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Harvesting electrons from N and F molecules in mitochrondria would be useful for powering the brain augmentation I'm beginning to need. You could create an organ specifically to power implantables. 

About ten years ago I suggested that chloroplasts might be altered to produce electricity. Got a lot of laughs.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 01:02 | 3725873 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Details, details. For now it's the thylakoid - which is easier because you're not altering the incoming light or need for it, just dealing with the electrons.

Once we get to the chloroplast stage then we can start using OTHER kinds of light.

Just imagine if we had solar cells that could intake GAMMA radiation and turn it to FOOD.

You're way ahead of your time.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 05:23 | 3725994 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Unless you can re-engineer the basics of Photosystems I and II you're stuck with just the two wavelengths (680 and 700nm - both at the lower energy "red end" of the visible spectrum).

Also plants are really not that efficient as energy harvesters (even amporphous pv is far, far more efficient in terms of irradiance conversion), then all in all the very essental cellular infrastructure (for repair and maintenance) and there'll not be much "spare" energy to power your devices.

As to the gamma absorption "you'll be needing something a bit heavier than manganese in System II" don't you think??!!

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 14:40 | 3726632 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture


Who knows when we'll get that far.

We'll probably cook ourselves to death first. The ever-rising global temperatures & shifting in where / when rain dumps is changing up everywhere that used to be known for desert & good crop land. I suppose we better get good at having portable crops.

And no, PV's are not the good solar collectors: the plants are. They use far, far more of the energy. Solar electric cells are some of the worst most inefficient things ever invented.

If I wanted to harvest solar energy to something useful before this thylakoid situation it's thermal-mechanical systems that actually were efficient. These photo-voltaics are nonsense. You spend far far more energy making & deploying them than what you'll take in from them for their life cycle.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 16:52 | 3724772 sgorem
sgorem's picture

(20) and good shit is getting fucking expensive,........ i"ve heard.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:26 | 3724869 PlausibleDenial
PlausibleDenial's picture

Is that 420:)

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:42 | 3725564 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

We're swimming in 420 out here in SF.  The prices have steadily declined since the Recession.  There are a number of reasons for that, the primary obviously being 'too many growers' which not only includes out-of-state and newbies but home growers too.  One of the many wonderful properties of this cure-all herb is that you can legally grow it yourself right here in the U.S.A.

I can buy an ounce of very smokeable ganja for what my brother pays for an 8th in Iowa.

DEA, eat shit and die.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 15:07 | 3726667 sgorem
sgorem's picture

no, referring to maybe 714, Rorer, round,'s back to the future time, again.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 16:52 | 3724776 GoldRulesPaperDrools
GoldRulesPaperDrools's picture

#20 Small-arms ammunition availability is now at an all-time low in the United States, most especially on the East Coast, and is not likely to be resolved anytime soon.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:47 | 3725109 CPL
CPL's picture

Go take a machinist and lathe class.  Then buy a CNC press, 3d scanner and AutoCad.  Problem solved.  If you need brass, yard sales, dump, Italian and Lebanese furniture stores.


Carbon - BBQ pit or coke chamber or the cleanest on the planet...the dead powdered in urns.

Saltpeter - Your dried piss or horse piss or goat piss

Sulfur - open google maps and look for towns with Sulfur in their name and follow your nose.


8th grade shop class and 9th grade chemistry ftw.


Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:14 | 3726083 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Mom, why is dad making 3D scans of a jar of goat piss, where's grandpa, and why does it smell like rotten eggs?"

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:16 | 3726161 CPL
CPL's picture

New 'Cake boss' challenge.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:19 | 3726170 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Worst 'Chopped' basket ever.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 10:56 | 3726270 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Making saltpetre in an modern, urban setting would be a problem, to say the least!  All that manure... All that urine... 

Now if you told me you were subcontracting an operation in Detroit...

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 22:53 | 3729700 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

have you seen the ARTEC scanner?
It's bad-ass.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:07 | 3725319 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Commie rifle ammo is now easy to come by and dropping in price.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:55 | 3725433 Suisse
Suisse's picture

Russia is less commie today than we are.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:01 | 3724805 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Oh but central criminals... I mean bankers, are gods! They NEVER make mistakes!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:08 | 3724829 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

True story - everyone loves these "lists" articles. Once as a gag, I wrote an article titled "7 ways to deal with a problem child" and submitted it to a parenting magazine. The 7 things were just standard conventional wisdom stuff. The article got published.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:26 | 3725210 msmith9962
msmith9962's picture

I think I read that article.  Was #3 The threat of five minutes in "monster closet" stops most bad behavior. 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 00:10 | 3725814 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

5 reasons why we love numbered lists

1. we know when we're done

2. easy to keep track of how far along you are

3. appears logical

4. you can eat while reading

5. we know when we're done

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 09:36 | 3726174 Cant see me
Cant see me's picture

Enough with all the lists already.  The only list I am interested in is a list of one.  1. Fuckin When?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 23:02 | 3725705 dvfco
dvfco's picture

I have a family member who went to Columbia School of Journalism, got a few average jobs and then was moving to  I asked if they were paying for the non-stop, 24/7 creation of Top 10 Lists that all take 11 clicks..  She basically said yes, then lasted a year or so before she couldn't take it anymore.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:15 | 3724844 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Re #19 - Maybe those 441 Trillion in derivatives were all bets that interest rates WOULD rise rapidly.  Why, we may be sitting right on the cusp of the most gigantic boom, the most gigantic leap forward in banker wealth in all of human history!  Think of how exciting that is for the bankers.  No need to be so gloomy all the time, sure, for many of us things are tight right now, but that doesn't mean we can't bask in the reflected glory of our new Financial Engineering/Criminal Ponzi-perpetuating nobility.


I myself am really hoping for some new shows along the lines of the old 'Lifestyles of the Rich And Famous' so I can see how the new Nobles are living large at our expense.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:29 | 3724877 Duke Dog
Duke Dog's picture

They were - but more "insurance" than a bet. What happens to all those "insurers" that wrote the protection (Fed/TBTFs) once rates start rising. They has to already be pressure on those bastards.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 17:36 | 3724896 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

They are theoretically SUPPOSED to be insurance, but I'm willing to bet you that the majority are EITHER pure speculative positions or were specifically created to generate an artificially strong market for treasuries.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 18:48 | 3725116 CPL
CPL's picture

I've never understood how an insurance industry can underwrite itself and it's bad exposure with no cost.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:28 | 3725216 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

As Yoda would say:  "THAT is why you fail."

The idea of an "industry" that services only itself is incomprehensible to most people because it doesn't pass the logic test.  Yet, that is what they do.  Ponzi schemes operate in a similar vein.  As long as everyone keeps believing, financial towers can be constructed all the way up to the stars.

Don't sweat it too much- recently rising rates will start breaking stuff soon enough.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 19:56 | 3725297 noless
noless's picture

So was that the action in bonds vs dollars today? Treasuries sold and dollar bid up? I checked the currency pairs with the most action recently and couldn't find anything else that really showed as heavy of a correlation..

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 11:02 | 3726277 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Dollar strength/USD bubble.  Stage 1 of Ka-Poom theory.  The rising rates give the USD allure for the moment, but it also causes its destruction.  I will leave everyone in suspense as to the mechanism (hint: banks have a lot of reserves, which if deployed...)

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 14:05 | 3726565 Seer
Seer's picture

Well, you've heard the phrase "A man's man."  This is "A liar's liar."  The "insurance" is really only a means of hiding the lie.  Sooner or later, though...

I'm starting to think that we're going to fly past the "inflation" state right into the hyper-inflation state and this will happen because people will have ZERO confidence in the lies (lies which prop up the entire Ponzi that is the perpetul-growth-on-a-finite-planet meme).

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 20:59 | 3725446 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Insurance ?Thats where they take your money,build nothing, create nothing and if by some quirk of nature they are asked to pay they plead " Act of God" They give veagas and bookies a real bad name.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 14:09 | 3726574 Seer
Seer's picture

Gangsters with paper guns... don't laugh, paper cuts hurt, death by a thousand cuts!

Only the State can have the real guns.  They use them to back up the gangsters and their paper guns...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 21:19 | 3725503 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

That's easy. Just sell a few dozen minor risks to some re-insurance groups and you've got it.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 08:16 | 3726085 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

A monoline is not a place where you have to wait patiently to be infected by kissing.

And if that doesn't work, just stare at your premium receipt for awhile.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!