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June Payrolls +195K Much Higher Than Expected; Underemployment Rate Soars To 14.3%
So much for any doubts about a September taper: with the street expecting a 165K NFP number for June, the actual print of 195K following an upward revised May print of 195K as well, means the Fed's September flow fade, aka Taper, is now virtually assured. On the other side, the Household Survey printed a 160K increase in jobs. The Unemployment Rate stayed at 7.6% despite expectations of a drop to 7.5%, although the real action was in the underemployment rate which exploded from 13.8% to 14.3%.
The Civilian Labor Force rose once again, printing at 63.5% with the labor force rising from 155,658
to 155,835.
The U-6, aka the Underemployment Rate, is not doing too hot:
From the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain of 182,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities. (See table B-1.)
Leisure and hospital ity added 75,000 jobs in June. Monthly job growth in this industry has averaged 55,000 thus far in 2013, almost twice the average gain of 30,000 per month in 2012. Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to expand, increasing by 52,000 in June. Employment in the amusements, gambling, and recreation industry also continued to trend up in June (+19,000).
Employment in professional and business services rose by 53,000 in June. Job gains occurred in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+10,000). Over the past year, professional and business services has added 624,000 jobs.
Retail trade employment increased by 37,000 in June. Within retail trade, employment increased by 9,000 in building material and garden supply stores and by 8,000 in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Employment in wholesale trade continued to trend up (+11,000).
Health care continued to add jobs in June, with a gain of 20,000. Within the industry, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+13,000). A gain of 5,000 jobs in hospitals followed a loss of 8,000 jobs in May.
Employment in financial activities rose by 17,000 in June, with most of the increase occurring in credit intermediation (+6,000) and in insurance carriers and related activities (+6,000).
Federal government employment continued to trend down in June (-5,000) and has declined by 65,000 over the past 12 months.
Employment in most other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing, showed little change in June.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in June at 34.5 hours. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $24.01. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 51 cents, or 2.2 percent. In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $20.14. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from +175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.
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Call it a Recovery, Recession, Slow Down, no matter the name. This economy is still in rough shape
Layoff / Business Closing List
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
-
Yay for "leisure and hospitality" leading the way! Promising careers in bike rentals, mini-golf and room service await you. But only for the summer.
I see it in my local economy-better jobs
I see none of this better jobs BS in my local economy
vote for one
Receiving Government entitlements is not a job.
poll update 27 votes it's BS, 3 up votes of which only one fred tells us what local economy is good, perhaps one the other 2 up voters could identify where the local economy is good, so far just San Francisco, Nancy Pelosi is proud.
Hookers for Wall Street
Where are the seasonal adjustment figures!?
These numbers stink of lies. I would bet on a seasonal adjustment of +110,000.
Can't wait to see the Sally Struthers "Careers" commercial for the new reality:
- Bootlicker
- Lackey
- Henchman
- Poolboy
- Ball washer (not golf!)
- Sycophant
Step right up and be the first to grovel before the ones ripping you off. I'd rather "join em" and just steal it back than enrich these toadies one more cent.
I shall pass the word on to the new hire, my coworker. She'll be glad to hear it!
Rosenberg just now on BBG
we have a fed focused on deflation but there is none
nice call Dave - you're the best
now crawl back into your hole but not before kissing Jim Grant's ass
@Shocker
http://gawker.com/tag/hello-from-the-underclass
Underemployment ? The new normal thanks to Obamacare is having a 20 hour a week job and looking for a second one.
The punch bowl just vanished right off the table!
Really? Don't tell that to equities, still riding high off of easy money from Europe just yesterday.
Meanwhile supposed monetary tightening continues to be priced in in bonds and especially PMs ...
Bullish! The economy is recovering.
How many of these 195,000 jobs are the ‘do you want fries with that’ jobs ?
Yes, and of those 195k fries jobs, those employers are reducing their hours below 30 hours per week, in preparation for Obamacare kicking in. Maybe that will change a bit now that the employer mandate has been put off a year.
Maybe not.
Look for the positive by 2018 Unemployment will still be 7.4% even though Underemployment will be around 90%. It has to get better from there and growth will be just around the corner.
Faith no moar.
@PaperBear
How many are commission-based internet sales (yes, work from home and make money in your pajamas!)? Pyramid sales groups like Primerica, Herbalife, etc.?
Or "working" for conservative tax-resistance 501 c3s.
These are part time jobs. People now work two part time jobs in an effort to maintain full time pay.
360,000 of them.
Farces aren't nearly so funny when you live in them, but this even made me smile.
The REALLY funny part is that they didn't report the seasonal adjustment numbers. I bet you can guess why. I'd bet the entire "rise" was made up in that manner.
the decimal point is there, you'll just have to squint
And the only thing being hammered by this is of course gold, China will be smiling all the way to the vault with their new stash at bargain basement prices
+195k means that the economy is better than at any time in years. The best!!
BUT...the unchanged unemployment rate means that QE is in no danger of ending.
So...sell gold and buy stocks.
Got it?
Sell gold? At these lows? Does not compute. Think I'll just hold mine.
Sell it. Hold it. Either way, but stay away from those accursed boats!
Oh...and don't forget to check table A-8 (http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm) where you can find that part-time jobs increased by 185,000 in June...
True, this is household data so it cannot be directly subtracted from or comapred to the establishment data, but when we note that part-time jobs are up by 1,411,000 between June 2012 and June 2013 it says something about the quality of the jobs being created...
/Assumption: these numbers are even worth parsing for meaning.
@Serfs Up
Re: /Assumption
Yeah, funny how the revisions to the last two months and the number for this month are all magically clustered around 195k.
The large increase in part time jobs shows that we are truly living in a Utopia. People don’t need to work full time to pay their bills and now have much more leisure time to enjoy themselves.
Obama replaces Ben with someone that will keep the kool-aid flowing.
Ben had a safety word and he's been yelling it for quite a while... It's not that he found religion, it's just that he knew where this was going before we departed and his part of the voyage had a pre-determined cutoff point.
With this "booming" economy the Bernank needs to skip the tapering and jump straight to tightening. Go ahead Ben I dare you.
This is it. Shorts on at the open. Earnings on Monday.
What do they say about great minds?!
Did anyone feel like if the NFP report was anywhere from -150,000 to +250,000 we were going to rip higher?
And that PMs would get crushed lower?
-150,000 and they'd have still ripped stocks far higher too no doubt.
They share the same dorm at the feemahkamp?
I wish I could short the phrase, "This is it!"
Taper on
Sorry folks but after working for 15 years in the National Capitol Region I do not believe these numbers at all. They are just changing the subject and the focus point for the media try and relieve the heat on the administration for their continued failure and agenda driven leadership.
We're completely shocked at such a heretical statement! Repent!
Reagan was a terrorist.
Bush's fault........
After 69 days in office, Reagan was terrorized by the true powers. He then got in line. He wasn't so much a terrorist as he was just another actor.
Wow ... everyone is going to be a waiter/waitress/cook .... an economy based on cooking for each other. Who would have thunk it.
All those college grads surely need their degrees to be wait staff.
Need those advanced degrees to figure out when you are getting stiffed on the tips. It ain't easy to figure out what 15% of the bill is. Let's make it 20%, now we can do that with a college degree. Save the 15% for the graduate work.
Hey- I went to Grad School. Once. They taught me that they make these things called calculators that can do the math for me. If you find yourself without one (which a reportable offense), divide by 7 and you'll be in the ballpark. And THAT'S why those guys make the big bucks. I then said "check, please!" and walked out without leaving a tip.
Are you telling me there's not a smartphone app for that? I may have to put off getting a smartphone just a bit longer.
I drive by a wealthy suburb's historic down town restaurant district and saw a help wanted sign. I make good money and live frugally (I never ever go out to eat anymore) and I was thinking about applying for a little extra money and some nice food. These restaurants are loaded with people and it is baffling to see these people with all this money to waste. A combination of upper middle class upper management/mid-business owners and young adults without kids. Everyone else either with kids or not making more than 150K is essentially broke. This model cannot last another generation.
So was that slight uptick in the labor force participation rate responsible for the U6 explosion?
Stolper stopped out ha ha ha!
That didn't take long, did it?
Any guesses as to what the true unemployment rate is, including all those who've given up as well as those underemployed? Maybe 20-25%?
Futures already pulling back...it will be interesting to see how this goes down.
Delete
Why do we continue to pay attention to all this crap?
Slow motion train wreck..
poll up date 2 yes more jobs, 17 it's bs, San Fran area reported as booming (gotta look again at CA, a state I had being first to go BK high taxes crazy energy policy and rampant illegal workers)
To clarify this is one small section of the Bay Area. Drive around this burg and the vanity plates will tell you what company the driver is CEO of. The hot weather makes these guys decide it's time to put in that vanishing edge pool they've been thinking of for a bit. It's hard to buy a house here without paying more than the asking price and often cash.
I know several younger people who got decent new jobs by giving up on their engineering training and taking data cruncher positions. It sucks for you if your SAT math score was under 700.
fred could you have up voted twice?? seems the other up vote will not tell the zher's where there is the good local economy, national secret no doubt, I was thinking 1600 penn ave.
Ho Hum; just another false set of numbers pulled directly from someone's ass, probably to keep the "recovery" meme alive.
But the critcal thinkers out there (yes there are a few of us left) know: that there has been at least 7% YOY inflation for the past 3 years; the middle class is being decimated; and household median income is still falling; and housing, supposedly the future growth producer, is about to hit another brick wall.
"ambulatory care"? really? "hospitals on wheels" is where we're going here? anywho the Fed has already raised rates so any hope that this never existent recovery was going anywhere has already been "monetized." I mean treasuries getting "crushed" at 2.63 percent? I'm sure the spreads continue to stay wide of course (Portugal et al.) but that just means the endless hunt for greater liquidity continues. these policies are still recessionary and "anti private money supply growth."
I still don't believe you will see any taper. Time will tell
Red by 10:00, circuit breakers by 11:00.
SUddenly, we have an accelerating jobs market as profit margins are declining, profits year over year are down, greater regulations for workers, and Obamacare on the horizon?
I guess I was wrong. Socialism and Keynesian Economics do work.
Profits do not matter.
All is good.
Wow, well perhaps I should have an offer by now on this property I am trying to sell? The phone ain't exactly ringing off the hook as they used to say.
Wait a minute Dow up 30pts, S&P500 up 2.76.
Hardly a ringing endorsement. Will be red within the hour!
Who cares about the increase in part time jobs. Most multinationals derive 50% of their profits from overseas. Just wait and see how crude at $100 and the strong $ eats into their earnings in Q-3. ( oh ya the T-10 is back over 2.5% also)
well so far in my little ZH poll, two votes for seeing better jobs 13 for it's BS, COULD THE UP VOTEs PLEASE TELL US WHAT LOCAL ECONOMY THEY ARE IN?? it would help many who are looking for work. Thanks in advance.
Upside bedroom community SF Bay Area. The place is booming. Forty miles away is still pretty dead. I don't expect it to last long but it is what it is. In 2009 I went into the local Home Depot on a Satirday AM and was the only customer in the store. Now there are lines at check out during week days.
thanks Deadfred, SF bay area is booming, wonder why?
You get the prize, YC.
What is it, something like -0.5% of GDP for every $10 in crude price rise?
" According to the International Monetary Fund, a $10-a-barrel increase in the price of oil reduces U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points"
Tylers, maybe you should poll the zh community each time the employment report is out...so far it seems us ZHers
are a sorry lot with only 2 votes saying they see jobs improvement in their local economy..one of the two votes did not bother to tell us where his local area was, wonder why..thanks again deadfred for your reply.
Congratulations, King Putt - after ordering Benron to print 5-7 Trillion USD (does anyone really know how much, in fact?) you've managed to claw the economy, 4-years into a Recovery, back to the same labor participation rate we had in JAN 1982 - as we were plunging into a pretty nasty recession.
And that's all assuming we can even believe this nonsense from the Bureau of Lies and Scams.
I think the number is if not accurate at least reflective of a trend. My 2 nephews home from school both got jobs this summer as opposed to last summer. Of course these are low paying service jobs which they will give up in the fall which brings me to my point.
Just as the Fed is set to begin tapering in the fall, the numbers will drop due to kids returning to school, and we will not only not taper but an increase in QE to 100bn/month heading into the 2014 election cycle.
Gotta love CNBC's headline: "U.S. job growth accelerated in June, though probably not at a pace fast enough to encourage the Federal Reserve to pull back on its monetary easing policy."
In other words..."Please Ben...puhleeeeze!"
These people are propagandist's paid for by the central planners in the WH.
The true extent of slowdown in the world economy can be judged by the data points which are not subjected to adjustments by the government. Eg. Change in Electricity and Fuel consumption, Ratio of working population to the total population of a country, Miles driven, Baltic Dry Index, Change in commercial Rental Rates etc
The weakness in the democratic process ensures the victory of the Wall Street over the Real Economy for the foreseeable future. Things are definitely going to get much much worse before they get better for the real economy i.e. for more than 90% of the population.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
I must be madochist. I see the price of gold dropping like a lead balloon and all I can keep doing is buy more.
I will therefore chase the price down all the way to its peak.
Think about that for a while, it is not a misprint.
Lol.
Who needs an hour, try 6 minutes.
Taper on.
Gold is taking a beating.
Paper gold is taking a beating is all. Phyzz holders could care less.
I'm a phyzz holder and I do care because silver is taking a worse beating and the LCS will give me more today (which I will trade for gold when the GSR reverts).
64.71 is ridiculous, if it breaks 66 again I'll back up the truck and the boat.
the 10 year is at 2.70.
things are going to be fun today.
No way the equity market will hold these levels with the huge move in the ten yr.
Great, at this rate we'll get the 'official' unemployment rate to zero and no one will be working! What'll they think of next, a CPI that doesn’t include fuel prices, health insurance premiums, or college tuition? Oh wait...never mind.
731k jobs "created" since the doomsday sequester went into effect
Listening to Tom Keene. So in love with his own voice, he doesn't listen and he doesn't look.
Everything is brilliant!!!!
Dow dropping before his eyes. 15181 to 15059 in 25 minutes and falling. Hilarity ensues.
They have painted themselves into the proverbial (recently invented by Moi-nedas) "Keynesian Korner" .... with red paint .... and the only escape is to paint the Parabolic Walls ! LOL
But.... But.... But....
Enter John Williams of Shadow Stats, STAGE LEFT.
I can't take Tom Keene seriously (not sure if I ever did!)
quote "Housing GREAT, Autos GREAT, so why do I not feel good"?
Maybe because you believe you're own bullshit.
Federal employment is down 5K .... my ass .... where's the savings .... spent on contractors .... who do business with the government ? So much BS 101 !
Thinking about the reaction here to the payroll numers, I'm struck that the ZH crowd reminds me a lot of the Twilight Zone episode wherein William Shatner, on an airplane, looks out the window and sees a monster trying to destroy an engine. No one else sees it.
Likewise, ZHers see monsters trying to destroy the global economy, liberty, etc., but no one else seems to notice or at least care.
Unlike the TV show, where damage is seen after the plane lands and Shatner sent off to the loony bin (am I allowed to use such language here?), when everything crashes and burns around us there will be no one left to do an honest assessment of what we all claim to see now, before the end.
So while I'm singing (in my mind) "they're coming to take me away, hee hee ha ha" (from the banned song of the same name, which I still have on a 45, and as an aside the flip side of the record was the same song in revers, as was the printed label; sounded oddly Russian) I'll be wondering if it will be "those nice young men in their clean white coats" or some goons from DHS/FEMA.
Well, looks like Benny finally fixed the US. He still has much work to do in reviving Europe, Japan and China. Despite CNBC ratings going backwards, they still love to primp the markets. Buy everything.
without dopping you cant win! "Lance Armstrong"