June Payrolls +195K Much Higher Than Expected; Underemployment Rate Soars To 14.3%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for any doubts about a September taper: with the street expecting a 165K NFP number for June, the actual print of 195K following an upward revised May print of 195K as well, means the Fed's September flow fade, aka Taper, is now virtually assured. On the other side, the Household Survey printed a 160K increase in jobs. The Unemployment Rate stayed at 7.6% despite expectations of a drop to 7.5%, although the real action was in the underemployment rate which exploded from 13.8% to 14.3%.

The Civilian Labor Force rose once again, printing at 63.5% with the labor force rising from 155,658
to 155,835.

 

The U-6, aka the Underemployment Rate, is not doing too hot:

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain of 182,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities.  (See table B-1.)

Leisure and hospital ity added 75,000 jobs in June. Monthly job growth in this industry has averaged 55,000 thus far in 2013, almost twice the average gain of 30,000 per month in 2012. Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to expand, increasing by 52,000 in June. Employment in the amusements, gambling, and recreation industry also continued to trend up in June (+19,000).

Employment in professional and business services rose by 53,000 in June. Job gains occurred in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+10,000). Over the past year, professional and business services has added 624,000 jobs.

Retail trade employment increased by 37,000 in June. Within retail trade, employment increased by 9,000 in building material and garden supply stores and by 8,000 in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Employment in wholesale trade continued to trend up (+11,000).

Health care continued to add jobs in June, with a gain of 20,000. Within the industry, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+13,000). A gain of 5,000 jobs in hospitals followed a loss of 8,000 jobs in May.

Employment in financial activities rose by 17,000 in June, with most of the increase occurring in credit intermediation (+6,000) and in insurance carriers and related activities (+6,000).

Federal government employment continued to trend down in June (-5,000) and has declined by 65,000 over the past 12 months.

Employment in most other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing, showed little change in June.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in June at 34.5 hours. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $24.01. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 51 cents, or 2.2 percent. In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $20.14. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from +175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.

More shortly.

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Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:36 | 3723097 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Call it a Recovery, Recession, Slow Down, no matter the name. This economy is still in rough shape

Layoff / Business Closing List
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
-

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3723114 Boba Fiat
Boba Fiat's picture

Yay for "leisure and hospitality" leading the way!  Promising careers in bike rentals, mini-golf and room service await you.  But only for the summer.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:44 | 3723132 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

I see it in my local economy-better jobs

I see none of this better jobs BS in my local economy

vote for one

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:35 | 3723339 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Receiving Government entitlements is not a job.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 12:10 | 3723847 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

poll update  27 votes it's BS, 3 up votes of which only one fred tells us what local economy is good, perhaps one the other 2 up voters could identify where the local economy is good, so far just San Francisco, Nancy Pelosi is proud.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:48 | 3723150 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Hookers for Wall Street

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:17 | 3723267 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Where are the seasonal adjustment figures!?

These numbers stink of lies.  I would bet on a seasonal adjustment of +110,000.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:53 | 3723171 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Can't wait to see the Sally Struthers "Careers" commercial for the new reality:

- Bootlicker

- Lackey

- Henchman

- Poolboy

- Ball washer (not golf!)

- Sycophant

Step right up and be the first to grovel before the ones ripping you off. I'd rather "join em" and just steal it back than enrich these toadies one more cent.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:08 | 3723230 Ben Dover
Ben Dover's picture

I shall pass the word on to the new hire, my coworker. She'll be glad to hear it!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:44 | 3723117 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Rosenberg just now on BBG

we have a fed focused on deflation but there is none

nice call Dave - you're the best

now crawl back into your hole but not before kissing Jim Grant's ass

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:43 | 3723370 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

Underemployment ? The new normal thanks to Obamacare is having a 20 hour a week job and looking for a second one.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:38 | 3723103 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

The punch bowl just vanished right off the table!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:42 | 3723128 gjp
gjp's picture

Really?  Don't tell that to equities, still riding high off of easy money from Europe just yesterday.

Meanwhile supposed monetary tightening continues to be priced in in bonds and especially PMs ...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:39 | 3723108 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Bullish!  The economy is recovering. 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3723109 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

How many of these 195,000 jobs are the ‘do you want fries with that’ jobs ?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:43 | 3723130 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Yes, and of those 195k fries jobs, those employers are reducing their hours below 30 hours per week, in preparation for Obamacare kicking in.  Maybe that will change a bit now that the employer mandate has been put off a year.

Maybe not.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3723242 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Look for the positive by 2018 Unemployment will still be 7.4% even though Underemployment will be around 90%. It has to get better from there and growth will be just around the corner.

Faith no moar.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:45 | 3723139 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@PaperBear

How many are commission-based internet sales (yes, work from home and make money in your pajamas!)?  Pyramid sales groups like Primerica, Herbalife, etc.?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:56 | 3723181 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Or "working" for conservative tax-resistance 501 c3s.

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:38 | 3723349 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

These are part time jobs. People now work two part time jobs in an effort to maintain full time pay.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:42 | 3723365 tmosley
tmosley's picture

360,000 of them.

Farces aren't nearly so funny when you live in them, but this even made me smile.

The REALLY funny part is that they didn't report the seasonal adjustment numbers.  I bet you can guess why.  I'd bet the entire "rise" was made up in that manner.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3723110 prains
prains's picture

the decimal point is there, you'll just have to squint

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:41 | 3723111 Racer
Racer's picture

And the only thing being hammered by this is of course gold, China will be smiling all the way to the vault with their new stash at bargain basement prices

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3723112 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

+195k means that the economy is better than at any time in years.  The best!!

BUT...the unchanged unemployment rate means that QE is in no danger of ending.

 

So...sell gold and buy stocks.

 

Got it?

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:47 | 3723144 Boba Fiat
Boba Fiat's picture

Sell gold?  At these lows?  Does not compute.  Think I'll just hold mine.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:54 | 3723175 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sell it. Hold it. Either way, but stay away from those accursed boats!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:49 | 3723155 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Oh...and don't forget to check table A-8 (http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm) where you can find that part-time jobs increased by 185,000 in June...

 

True, this is household data so it cannot be directly subtracted from or comapred to the establishment data, but when we note that part-time jobs are up by 1,411,000 between June 2012 and June 2013 it says something about the quality of the jobs being created...

 

/Assumption:  these numbers are even worth parsing for meaning.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3723184 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Serfs Up

Re: /Assumption

Yeah, funny how the revisions to the last two months and the number for this month are all magically clustered around 195k.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:05 | 3723216 Osmium
Osmium's picture

The large increase in part time jobs shows that we are truly living in a Utopia.  People don’t need to work full time to pay their bills and now have much more leisure time to enjoy themselves.

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3723113 Jahbulon
Jahbulon's picture

Obama replaces Ben with someone that will keep the kool-aid flowing.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:30 | 3723328 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Ben had a safety word and he's been yelling it for quite a while...  It's not that he found religion, it's just that he knew where this was going before we departed and his part of the voyage had a pre-determined cutoff point.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3723116 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

With this "booming" economy the Bernank needs to skip the tapering and jump straight to tightening. Go ahead Ben I dare you.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:41 | 3723122 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

This is it. Shorts on at the open. Earnings on Monday.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:45 | 3723138 sphindog
sphindog's picture

What do they say about great minds?!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:48 | 3723151 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

Did anyone feel like if the NFP report was anywhere from -150,000 to +250,000 we were going to rip higher?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:51 | 3723163 gjp
gjp's picture

And that PMs would get crushed lower?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:05 | 3723217 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

-150,000 and they'd have still ripped stocks far higher too no doubt.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:33 | 3723333 knukles
knukles's picture

They share the same dorm at the feemahkamp?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3723199 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

I wish I could short the phrase, "This is it!"

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:41 | 3723124 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Taper on

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:41 | 3723125 musket
musket's picture

Sorry folks but after working for 15 years in the National Capitol Region I do not believe these numbers at all.  They are just changing the subject and the focus point for the media try and relieve the heat on the administration for their continued failure and agenda driven leadership.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:47 | 3723146 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

We're completely shocked at such a heretical statement!  Repent!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:58 | 3723192 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Reagan was a terrorist.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:18 | 3723276 DOT
DOT's picture

Bush's fault........

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 10:17 | 3723501 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

After 69 days in office, Reagan was terrorized by the true powers. He then got in line. He wasn't so much a terrorist as he was just another actor.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:42 | 3723126 billwilson
billwilson's picture

Wow ... everyone is going to be a waiter/waitress/cook .... an economy based on cooking for each other. Who would have thunk it.

All those college grads surely need their degrees to be wait staff.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:50 | 3723159 IcarusOnFire
IcarusOnFire's picture

Need those advanced degrees to figure out when you are getting stiffed on the tips. It ain't easy to figure out what 15% of the bill is. Let's make it 20%, now we can do that with a college degree. Save the 15% for the graduate work.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:01 | 3723202 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Hey- I went to Grad School.  Once.  They taught me that they make these things called calculators that can do the math for me.  If you find yourself without one (which a reportable offense), divide by 7 and you'll be in the ballpark.  And THAT'S why those guys make the big bucks.  I then said "check, please!" and walked out without leaving a tip.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:27 | 3723308 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Are you telling me there's not a smartphone app for that? I may have to put off getting a smartphone just a bit longer.

 

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