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The Market's Schizophrenic Reaction To Payrolls

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UPDATE: S&P futures collapsing quickly - now down from Payrolls

The initial kneejerk reaction in stocks was oddly 'good-is-good' higher after the better-than-expected headline data on payrolls - which perhaps signalled that Taper is nearer - but FX, bond, and precious metals markets were clearly in Taper-On mode. Treasury yields cracked 13bps higher, Gold and Silver dropped 1-2%, outdates for Eurodollar futures dropped notably, and the USD jumped around 0.5% almost uniformly. As an illiquid equity market soaks in the reality, some of that initial surge is fading...

Stocks jump...

 

but everything else cracks in a distinctly Taper-Off mode...

 

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Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:52 | 3723168 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Does not compute ---- except for the algos.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:10 | 3723239 flacon
flacon's picture

Russell 2000 looks like a good short here:

https://www.tradingview.com/e/ZmSaSXzJ/

 

Here is the ES:

https://www.tradingview.com/e/vLfPKboT/

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:16 | 3723248 spine001
spine001's picture

The level of instability in the financial system Makes it impossibke to predict forward more than a few second, thus you see what the article calls knee jerk reactions, they are just the algos following the fractal bifurcations that they see in the market. Remember they use chaos theory to make the predictions and that the people definig the math built into the algos are physicists

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 10:23 | 3723423 ACP
ACP's picture

Took 6 straight days of POMO-fueled HFT criminal manipulation to push this pig over the 50DMA again? They're really losing their touch. Either that of they're building a wall of stops to get ready for a hard core bang-up next week.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:19 | 3723244 spine001
spine001's picture

Not schizophrenic but math based and predictable in a non linear feedback system where people are attempting to predict its behavior and can onlybdo it for a few second foirward, and during transitions only foir a few miliseconds due to the rate of bifurcations.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:25 | 3723299 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and run by humans who are chaos fact. "must control them! must control them! send in fem bots! send in fem bots" all those numbers say recession. period. the Fed has already gone full on Phillips Curve (from out of the blue I might add.) well...here comes your trade off: recession=no bank. the idea that this recovery can be financially driven has been laid to rest. ironically it was working. (insert Easter island totems here.)

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:53 | 3723170 Racer
Racer's picture

As long as gold is hit, the banksters care not, so perception of their lack of clothes is put off until another day

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:06 | 3723222 bozzy
bozzy's picture

Yup - just a shame that the rest of the world cannot shake free of the petro-dollar reserve currency scam. The Fed has done wonderfully well to get the rest of the world to pay for the American dream recovery, and there is no sign of the plot weakening. Oil heading North will bring us unopposed fracking, and the new American century will be here for all (US) citizens to enjoy. Well, actually a few, not all. 

Just one thing I did not catch in the jobs data - WHEN exactly are the employment numbers projected to get back to their previous levels?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3723245 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Never.  Manufacturing lost jobs.  Working in fast food or at Lowes/Home Depot way up.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:30 | 3723325 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

a house is a manufactured product. "it has the added value of being able to live in it." we can create 100 percent home ownership actually...but we have to turn the media people switch to off. since people are so terrified of that thing "they'd rather blow up banks and markets instead." this doesn't strike me as good for recovery.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:26 | 3723306 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Gold did get 'hit':

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2356457/Thieves-caught-lifting-1-million-vodka.html

Gold Vodka, who knew? Precious Liquids...now I have to change my porfolio again...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:56 | 3723182 Clam McCain
Clam McCain's picture

Sell your gold it is worthless

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3723201 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

 

  At these prices, you're not selling...you're giving it away!!!

 

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:03 | 3723211 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

An evil, barbaric relic from a dark time long, long ago when wizards and talking dragons ruled from the Gorge of Liam's Grundle all the way to the abyssal wastelands of Harry's Gooch... Yesssss, I remember it well...

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:30 | 3723324 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i agree....going to start looking for it....tossed on the garbage heaps. and dumped in corners. 

all kidding aside, I wish I owned one of those "we buy gold shops" this week...you could make a killing --- i mean, you are getting all this free publicity from the FED and JPM.....ride the marketing wave.....half the people don't have a clue.....

and are getting suckered royally. 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3723185 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Everybody's forced to be a day trader in today's markets. Nobody knows what the fuck is going on ....

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:07 | 3723224 Cdad
Cdad's picture

What is going on...is the complete and total destruction of any remnant of market credibility.  It is part of the process of taking it down.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3723247 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It really does get me that all these eclownomists have completely sold out, and can somehow just overlook the fact that these markets have been reduced to a laughable farce! 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:34 | 3723337 malikai
malikai's picture

Put the god damn glasses on!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:12 | 3723251 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

DING DING DING - We have a winner!!!! 

They've already destroyed the credility of any governmental entities all that is left is to kill the market.

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:28 | 3723319 Town Crier
Town Crier's picture

Correct.  Money will be removed from the economy, but not TPTB money.  Retail investors' money.  When every mom and pop and their neighbors are finally all in, TPTB will take their profits, the crash will happen and mom and pop will be broke before they finish their morning coffee.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:38 | 3723348 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

not true. you still have to find new sources of liquidity. TPTB only exist on "old money." there are many sources of liquidity of course...but usually very few NEW sources. the USA has three and counting: nat gas, solar, cloud computing. they have the advantage of being very low in price...in effect they are "funding currencies." so no...we don't care about the dollar, we don't care about oil, we don't care about the middle east, we don't care about Wall Street. we DO care about the economy however "and the meaning of debt driven growth" as opposed to that which is equity driven.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:58 | 3723187 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Stocks up, gold and bonds down...Clearly a sign of the great rotation as we enter a period of peace and prosperity. The world is in perfect harmony. What Middle East turmoil?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3723190 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

More people have two minimum pay jobs. All is good.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:58 | 3723191 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Totally transparent taper to follow...or not. Market truth is long gone. Fools remain.

Going to Managua today to have lunch with Edward Snowden.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 08:58 | 3723193 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must.....Panic Buy......Stawks....

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3723198 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Who is Edward Snowden? 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3723200 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

30K beat in UE can't top the retarded no volume ramp job yesterday as ES now trading lower than yesterday's highs.  

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:12 | 3723213 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I suspect they are about to do a USD intervention here pretty soon.  I don't think they will allow it stay over 84.  I suspect our direct trading partner curreny, the CAD and the MXN are viewed as way undervalued at the moment.  And that is bad for trade. 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:05 | 3723214 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

   This is great news, job market on a tear.....I think that I'll go and order something from... China!     (sarc)

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:05 | 3723215 Racer
Racer's picture

What's up with the DAX? Uh, rather what's down with it?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:20 | 3723281 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Conergy has gone bust.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:26 | 3723304 reload
reload's picture

Re allocation to FTSE

Bets placed on Carney beating Draghi in the print wars.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:06 | 3723219 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

This schizophrenia ain't nothing compared to the anxiety attacks once they get over the hangover from dipping in the punch bowl all these years!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:06 | 3723220 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

10 year treasury explodes close to YTD highs.  Kiss housing recovery goodbye unless FOMC jawbones away from taper

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3723255 Headbanger
Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:30 | 3723321 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

At this rate, we will hit post crisis highs in yield by EOM.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:07 | 3723228 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Cashin is probably marinating ice cubes but it would be interesting to hear his view. 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:08 | 3723231 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If the number was -150,000 they still would have pumped stawks like a free whore....'certainly moar QE coming' and all that. At this point, there just is no point.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:09 | 3723234 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

I am just rooting for my boy Stolper. What a brilliant mind!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:25 | 3723300 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We took profits on the anti-Stolper trade this morning at 1.2822.  Close enough.  Worried about the schizo effect hitting EUR/USD.  Thanks Tom.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:10 | 3723240 Conax
Conax's picture

A quick glance at NetDania is illuminating vis a vis what happened to gold and silver this morning.

All those edgy investors made the same move, at the same moment, a half hour before the Comex even opened.

37,000 contracts in silver dumped on the market, and 41,000 contracts in gold dumped on the fire within 10 minutes, in order to get the lowest possible return on those 'investments'.

yep, seems legit.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3723243 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i fucking love it. futures are fucking collpasing, europe is getting fucking pounded, yields are exploding.

 

fuck u wall st and u fucking bankers, go fuck urself.

 

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3723258 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wall St in suicidal denial....they're just so certain that if they just pump enough then everyone will come clamoring for their stawks and it's just never going to happen.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:20 | 3723280 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Cyprus was the end of the illusion that bankers were not going to randomly decide to pull the plug and rape everyone again.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:25 | 3723298 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And yet so many still just believe 'it will never happen here, Ben's got my back'....wow such an all-time epic raping is coming.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3723254 km4
km4's picture

36 Tough Questions About The U.S. Economy That Everyone Should Be Asking | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-01/36-tough-questions-about-us-eco...

5) Why do 53 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year?

7) Why are 76 percent of all Americans living paycheck to paycheck?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:47 | 3723392 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

99) Why do broke ass americans buy fireworks they can't afford to celebrate their slavery to the fascist banksters?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3723257 Goldmans-fucker
Goldmans-fucker's picture

Fuck Ben Shalom Bernanke....

 

 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3723259 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

Where I live there is a bunch of work. There has recently been a surge in the job market. How long this will last is anybody's guess.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3723262 ekm
ekm's picture

Anyday now, anyday.

This thing is going down not naturally, but on an order from White House, same as Bear Stearns, Lehman or MF Global.

 

Hold your breath

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:18 | 3723274 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

What makes you think that? I'm curious. What would be the end game?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:21 | 3723285 ekm
ekm's picture

Every major decision is a product of two warring factions inside the government.

 

One faction likes QE (banks), another does not.

The faction against QE is winning now, IMO (big oil, military complex)

 

Economy is dead due to QE. It will be not only halted, but even unwound.

It's a distater

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:30 | 3723322 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I agree QE has been a disaster. These people don't understand or care because what they are only concerned with are their banking friends.

The ten yr is my guide and it is moving rapidly out of control.  I'm sure Bernanke would rather taper before he leaves but Yellen, Summers, Geithner or who ever is next is hardly going to go along with a collapse imo.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:44 | 3723376 ekm
ekm's picture

Benny walked out of the fight.

Now it's Dudley (bank lobby) vs Fisher (oil lobby)

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:23 | 3723291 ekm
ekm's picture

Any government is a product of a mob fight, it's this simple

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:25 | 3723303 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

End game? 1 world bank, 1 world currency.....I've been trying to tell people this for years it's what it's all about.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3723264 involuntarilybirthed
involuntarilybirthed's picture

Added 195,000 jobs, okay.  Part time work increased by 322,000.

So if my math (and thinking) is right we lost 127,000 full time jobs?

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:23 | 3723292 bozzy
bozzy's picture

Youda man!

Lets do some arithmetic - I'm not much good at this but:-

 

Jobs added

(net immigration)

(increase in part-ime roles)

----------------------------------------------------

Net increase in permanent roles

====================

 

Anyone know what that looks like in numbers? 

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:18 | 3723275 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

im surprised futures are collapsing.

 

china and japan are fixed, portgual said today they found a formula to bring stability to the economy, the u.s added 195,000 jobs, and the numbers are deff not manipulated or anything, everything is just so great ( sarc)

 

the best part was that portugal found a formula to bring stability to ther economy. ya, its just that easy. if they found a formula to cure everything, where the fuck was this before things got really out of hand?

 

just another bullshit speech to make sure europe does not go crazy. maybe draghi can come out and tell us how good portugal is doing, because that many is very honest.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:19 | 3723279 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Fonz had it nailed on an earlier thread.  Good call.

All the same, this campfire from last night just will not reignite.  I am going to have resort to some quantitative gasolining to stimulate.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:22 | 3723289 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

the market is nuts. what else is new

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 09:45 | 3723371 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

deleted

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 10:10 | 3723471 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Can you blame the computers?  They are just trying to make a buck.

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 10:48 | 3723639 jpc578
jpc578's picture

Congratulations BLS. The markets are baffled. Mission Accomplished!!

Fri, 07/05/2013 - 11:05 | 3723687 Spigot
Spigot's picture

WOW! 13 bps in 5 minutes, 2.66% Lord! That ain't tradin like an AAA Soverign, that's trading like sub-JUNK with a capital J.

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