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Stocks Melt-Up As Bond Yields Spike Most In 2 Years
The market remains confused. The better-than-expected headline jobs data prompted USD strength (Taper-on), gold/silver weakness (Taper-on), Homebuilder stocks drop (Taper-on), Bond yields surge (Taper-on), and credit market widening (Taper-on); but the good-old trusty US equity market was not having any of that. After dumping 25 points from its post-NFP highs, S&P 500 futures gapped and jerked up to VWAP, ran stops at the highs of the day, dropped back to VWAP, then surged into the close. The Dow ended up 150 points. Treasury yields rose the most in 2 years - an impressive 22bps. Despite a late surge, high-yield bonds had their worst day in 2 weeks. Gold and silver down 2.3% and 3.5% respectively and copper dumped 3.2% (not exactly the growth-exhibiting factor that everyone suggests is driving stocks up and bonds down). Meanwhile, WTI topped $103 for its highest close in 14 months.
A 'well-supported' rally in the markets...
The S&P closed above its 50DMA for the first time in 2 weeks... with the best 8-day run since the start of the year - and it looks like (for cash markets) this fills the post-FOMC gap...
and the NASDAQ (thanks to AAPL's great week and today's loss) is now above FOMC levels...
Treasuries were battered... closing at their high yields of the day with 7Y underperforming +26bps on the week.
Spot the odd market out... (credit was not playing along with stocks)
But the late-day 330Ramp Capital driven idiocy was insane... with plunging volume
Homebuilders did it again (though managed to rally along with the market from early lows) and Discretionary laughs in the face of a Taper...
WTI surges 7% and above $103, gold and silver hurt as the USD rips and Copper ignoring the growth meme...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: Gold and AAPL continue their dance...
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Far gone are the days of articles asking “Who is Zero Hedge, and why should we care?”, asserting that “Mr. Durden and Zero Hedge have a reputation as provocateurs…” (The Globe and Mail, Friday, Aug. 19 2011).
MailOnline (aka dailymail.co.uk) didn’t take the bait on the job numbers but did take our friend M.Durden’s analysis…
“The popular financial website Zero Hedge also blamed June's net loss in full-time jobs on Obamacare, suggesting that many employers shifted full-time workers to part-time status in June in order to avoid long-term costs of offering them health care coverage.” (dailymail.co.uk)
To the prescient observers/members who supported Tyler at inception…
Thanks! ... Cheers!
fuck the MSM.
Maybe we'll see a gold plated iPad soon.
/fingers crossed
Jeff Gundlach is saying the bond market selloff is near completion.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/06/doublelines-gundlach-says-bond-mar...
it won't be complete until i get short it <sarc>
I had to plus one you.
Investors are nervous, but remember the FED has done nothing yet, all this selling off and buying up on yields is all on rumour and speculation. Gotta luv it ey?
plus the Weekly DOW chart looks amazingly good ==> http://bit.ly/14TRH9G
Popular? Well, there goes the neighborhood!
Can't wait for Jay Carney (to try) to call out ZH ;-)
Need someone to ask him what the Admininstration thinks about Mr Durden at ZH.
US DEB 100 bln shy of 17 trillion - it's all bullish
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
99 Bln - still bullish.
10 year is a complete disaster, 2.5% was the point where IR swaps start becoming a problem. This will get ugly very quickly.
Having the Daily Mail in your corner is basically 'the Establishment' declaring war on you (in a managed way, and for specific intent).
No-one serious believes them (and their owner / editors are very carefully managed), and it's certainly a counter-stroke to *ahem* Guardian links. The only interesting thing is that someone feels that middle England needs to feel angry at the banks, and they want to split ZH from Guardian sources.
The fact they had to marshal the Daily Fail is more telling than you realize, at least for domestic UK politics. [Probably the pro-Farage stuff, more points to the theory that back-bench Tories are looking for an ally].
TL;DR
Shit is complicated: Daily Mail guarantees that a certain % of UK "left wingers" will switch to hate mode, and will tar by association. It's clever, but it's also incredibly parochial and rather *ahem* 1.0. The smart lefties (a tiny bunch) already know about ZH. Let's just say, they're not entirely "positive" about it. You're all the evil fascists, waving the Nazi flag.
The media has moved on, dears. So, so, so slow. Still, fuck it: more pageviews, bring it on; the Daily Mail is good for a couple million hits. They might even learn a thing or two if they're not immediately terrified of the comments. Although - that feeds the cycle: trust me, any comment on this board is going to cause EPIC levels of outrage to most DM readers. Francis is going to hit +10,000 reports about his Cheesepopes immediately, and I trust I won't be too far behind when I mention Church sponsored pedophilia.
Positive Feedback Loop, engage. Warp Speed, Mr Spock.
By the time I read this I was knee deep in “happy hour”…. I might actually agree with you…
Unless you’re from the UK, your statement would be a little cryptic… It’s nice to get a little feedback from the chaps overseas…
I’m sorry you had to bring Nigel into this… Some of us are really fond of him… :-)
I mentioned to my wife, they (Daily Fail) is using ZH only because it suits their current agendas…
Thanks for your input… I appreciated your perspective.
The other way to look at it is tracking just how much traction The Guardian has got via ZH to American readers who would never, ever, ever have thought to read them before. If the Daily Mail is trying to get onto the action, you know there's money to be made.
It's all about the Benjamin's. Expect a HEROIC and EPIC level dismissal of ALL of the HATED BRITISH COLONIAL MEDIA from Bloomberg, NYT and Fox News soon. Shit sells - the question of how honest your shit is, well, that's a different question. (And Francis, despite his failings, is correct to ask who is sponsoring what news. He's not far off, but he's wrong about the intent: "ZE JEWS" [Non-Zionist version] tend to like the truth, and hate propaganda, 'cause that didn't end well for them last time).
Yeah, but then Hollywood. Shit. I hate it when reality and Magical Accounting get in the way of a nice story. Guess we devolve into "Use of Weapons" again.
It's all bullshit: and TPTB have total information dominance (including people, if you want to get into spooktastic OPs, if not populations, and trust me: Phase IV is not a joke), so you're really only choosing the level of bullshit you want. I'd advise the Guardian level: they like you people, and have notions where the eloi and morlocks live harmoniously.
And, Farage has a role: but never, ever, ever forget he made his money trading, and is a City of London boy. He represents the City, always has, always will. He's nothing but a City spokesman - an educated and funny one, but he's toeing the City Line at all times.
+1 for that last paragraph.
i'm trying to understand something...i think you can help.
why does my british colleague at work say that:
??
He's an idiot. (Or, he's not working for who you think he's working for - that's far more likely).
The Independent was incredibly good (and still is, in certain cases, with some of the best reporters out there), but was bought out by a Russian Oligarch. Said Oligarch has remained fairly "hands-off", but I can't link it to ZH - there's simply too much Russian politics involved. RT is obvious Moscow propaganda, everyone knows that, Independent is getting into murky London based stuff, and is far too open to American accusations of bias (or "THE NWO OMGA!!!"). I read it, but politically and financially, it's in a weird space that Americans simply won't get.
The Guardian is essentially the face of liberal [European meaning, not USA - important to note and grokk] Capitalism. It's friends with the RSA and other pro-Capitalist but fairly fluffy stuff. They're the people who think the old tripartite power structure worked, and would love for the rational world where shit got done, culture progressed, everyone got richer etc. It's only "conservative" in the manner that it thinks the old balances worked.
Top tip: No English MSM media is left wing (in the old sense, barring the horror that is SWS); they're all fucking Capitalists. So, yes, they're all "right wing" in the old 2D spectrum ~ this is largely meaningless to Americans, however, since Democrats are the European version of the Hard Right, and Republicans are basically in Taliban land.
thanks for those insights.
sorry for the flattery, but you continue to impress. your knowledge is so divergently broad, yet often deep enough to make me feel like this...
had to look up eloi and morlocks.
stumbled upon:
the morlock manifesto
maybe harmonious is just the way it is? nature has its own way of restoring imbalances
One of the hardest, and most salient lessons that ecology only just learnt is that if you remove all the top predators, you totally fuck an ecosystem. Totally.
Hint: homo sapiens takes special care to remove any threats from its environment, which are the top predators. You can apply this to your own ecology, but let's not go there. (Hi DSK! I see you got a job after all the drama, quelle surprise!)
Hunting the whales to extinction was culling sentient creatures, cruel and post the discovery of oil, entirely pointless - sure, kill a few, but the genocide was disgusting, they even resorted to helping you hunt ffs (orca / killer whales - look it up, muppets); culling the sharks was short-sighted fuckwittery on a scale beyond all measure, given it was merely based on fear, removing "threats" to short-term fishery stocks and eating their fins. If homo sapiens had any sense, it'd step away from the Oceans for at least 50 years, entirely. That's basically the only way you're going to make it, given the ocean heating issues. You won't, which is why you're going to die off in massive amounts in the next 50 years. I'd research jellyfish, since that's all you'll be pulling from the oceans if you don't start enforcing some serious notions of ecological understanding.
The point when it's decided you're going to tip the oceans is the point the Interesting Times Gang[TM] step in with enforced culling, btw. Enjoy your fucking sushi, you total ignorant cunts. And yes; Spielberg might think he's saving his soul via Schindler's List, but trust me: Jaws fucking doomed your species (both of them - don't think you get out of this either, sharp pointy teeth strain). Oh, and if you need some burn: most nations have fully functioning Navies tooled up to the hilt, that wurble around the world burning $ like nothing and doing fuck all: homo sapiens has the Power to protect all Oceans and stop this. You have nuclear subs that spend their entire time doing shit all but waiting for the end of the world, whilst not preventing the thing that's gonna tip it - this is irony.
You could stop it, but you won't; that's the joke. (Bulk Food - warning PDF. A story for you - trust me, ZH, you'll enjoy it - I won't spoil it, but let's just say, the hippies are rather naive. Oh, and never doubt there's a singing, all dancing split to the world that doesn't have two separate species. You're both fucked, but hey).
edit: something very weirrd happened to above hyperlink. strange that i re-checked this...in any case, i'm leaving it as is, but here's the original link:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/dominique-strauss-kahn/10144389/Domin...
Boom in Jellyfish: Overfishing Called Into Question“We’re very strange animals,” he said. “We’re so clever and civilized, but our hearts are very primitive. If our hearts weren’t primitive, there wouldn’t be wars. I’m worried that we will apply the science too early, like we did with the atomic bomb.”
"we are feeling machines that happen to think"i'm still trying to parse your message, but my head is spinning. going to watch the latest dexter episode...
Prime Interest on Russia Today just opened citing ZH as well
THis bond update was not brought to you by PIMCO and Doubleline funds.
why not? "how else to play in the uber dollar" but in the treasury market? "all debt is created equal" you say? hmmmm. still not buying it...not with gold and silver simply getting annihilated here. "Wall Street's little bitch" as they say. and with Larry Kudlow still blabbing about "no capital investment" going on...2000 years now...i have a hard time listening to that without laughing. all this money is flowing into municipal bond portfolios and ultimately "state" banks. the idea that "Wall Street is winning" by driving up interest rates in general is...well, strange. i mean "at some point you'll be forced to pay an interest rate on deposits." obviously the dollar is soaring just for that very reason! SOMEBODY'S GETTING THE PRIVATE RATE. THAT'S FOR CASH! in the meantime "the recovery still suffers." if gold and silver start getting a bid here (via "no longer collapsing in price") i will jump back in equities. i fail to see what i'm missing out here. in other words give me an 800,000 jobs number. THAT would be inflationary.
im guessing the shock will come this w/e from europe and the US will be "caught off guard"? whocouldveknowed?
Whether this weekend or another, it's only a matter of time.
Long popcorn and laz boy recliners.
And Imagine what's happenning to OIL price in EUROs as Euro drops against dollar and OIL price surges.
But who cares - it's all bullish...
f the price of oil in europe. imagine the price of it in japan! 50% price increase YoY.
Yes but there is no inflation in Japan still...
Oh well
Printing $ 1 Trillion more, for the record, till i can get outta town.
Waitress oh waitress, get your nose out of that book, and wipe this table with your law degree.
Jobs all P.T., real estate? rent suckers. rent. Growth industry? :Pawn shops.
I never planned on giving up identity on here but I am the guy in the white shorts with the blue stripe.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2356883/Fed-Hamptons-resident-sets-Douche-Spotter-website-outing-bad-behavior-visiting-tourists.html
Bullshit. That's kito pumping you on the handlebars.
Hah! I see you just got your hair done
Awesome hair! :D
@fonz
I always knew you had the Russell Brand look. I can just tell from the way you write stuff and all....
dang, ben is good.....no care in the world.........there isnt even a friggn worry wall to climb.......stocks heading back towards 16,000......gold heading down towards 1200, yields up (and yes, ben does want to see a rise--just not too fast).....propaganda numbers killin it............................life is good for the bernank............................
I'm just glad to see stocks are able to power ahead in this environment and that nobody's worried about the way Treasuries are falling off a cliff.
This is awesome eh Al? I figure $5 gas by august with the 10yr at 3.25% so put Mortgage rates in the high 5's...
Put the GDP at -5%
How can this not be bullish for stocks?
why is it that we are always wrong???? always.....everytime i think something logical would result from some setback in economic data....or some world event....or from some hiccup in the markets......nothing ever fucking happens.........WTF MAN!!!?!?!?!?!? why is the bernank still right???? why is nothing blowing up in his face???? WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY?!?!?!?!? (temper tantrum ensuing..........)
that's what you get for listening to the guy in the white shorts with the blue stripe.
You are not wrong Kito. It's over. It really is. No more talk about ratings agencies downgrades....debt/gdp...interest payments on the debt...
we are now at that point where you have had your 15th drink. You are at the bar. People are talking around you but all you hear is blurred backround noise and your vision is blurry. You can't drive home. Your friends left. You can't even articulate to anyone that you need a cab. You know how it's going to end. You are going to keel over into a pile of your own barf and wake up in an alley if you wake up at all.
The problem is this stage could take a while.
The problem is this stage could take a while........
so then.......i should expect...that nothing will happen...again.....for a while......forgive me....for growing wary............
ghordius told me the other day he had a mentor who told him that when preparing for the future, always accept the possibility of 7 more years of the same shit. sounds about right.
that would peg it to around......2015......hmmmm.....
exactly, so for you 2015 is the year when it all goes to shit. so when we get to 2015 you have to anticipate 7 more years of the same shit.
LOL....thanks for the laugh fonz....im signing off now....i need a weekend of blue pill fun.............no more gloom and doom until next week......just in case anything happens........collapse, war,etc...... please "friend" me and give me the heads up........otherwise im outta here.........
fonzannoon said:
Which stage, the barfing or the waking up?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mbg1nEXQ1fI
I imagine it will look like this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eYSpIz2FjU
do not think for one second that BB isn't shitting his pants this weekend at the events in the bond market....but unless he calls off QE pronto and talks of UNWINDING...he is not going to get lower rates at this point
his little monetary experiment has blown up and he knows it
every day the equity markets hold up or march higher while rates soar, than harder the fall is going to be
@Its Only Rock N Roll
I completely agree. We're at that point in the movie where the guys who pulled the heist know they are doomed. That's BernanQE. He knows that he/the Fed is checkmated. Of course, this usually happens half way through the movie, so it takes a while to play out. We're already much longer than I ever thought in 2009, but you can see that, to continue BernanQE's recent airplane analogy, this QE "soft landing" is rapidly running out of landing strip.
don't put it past others to try and "fix" it though, which will FUBAR it in short order
the one thing you can not underestimate is the hubris and ego of central bankers
why the talk out of the ECB this week of prolonged lower rates? what message was Carney trying to give with his first meeting?
I still believe the Cinese market is the key here and BB is scared shitless about the PBOC chocking off liquidity while there isn't enough good collateral around to contain an epic crisis.
IMO this will be similar to the panic of 1907 when what were considered sound institutions went under after the Knickerbocker Trust failed. Who/what is our Knickerbocker Trust?
Central bank? Sovereign nation? TBTF institution?
We are taking the lead on the race of central banks that have lost control.
Because he is THAT good as you stated yourself. Pure luck can't explaint this when everything goes wrong in economy and prices refct just the opposite.
I also though Obami - lucky guy - unbeleivable god gave him cycle when nothing can fail - why did he deserve this? Cause he is not best human being as we know
Totally agree. Things have never looked better. I can't think of a time in history when rapidly rising borrowing costs weren't fantastic news for the market, and with the price of gas going through the roof as well, how can that not help companies' bottom lines?
WTF?
hey the market always looks ahead this time ahead of 10-20 years
time flyes no worries
If maket looked ahead that far S&P would be near 300 level
The Oil/Gold ratio is way out of whack. Seems nothing makes sense anymore.
It must be ridiculous. Even more so with silver.
(In keeping with Tyler's 70s theme):
I want to live, I want to give
I’ve been a miner for a floor in gold
It’s these retracements I never get
That keep me searching for a floor in gold
And it’s getting old
Out of whack?
I'd seen gold/oil @12 described as a "longer term" mean a few places. Thought of this as just a reversion to that mean....
Anywhooo, I kinda like gold right around here.
so egypt is in turmoil, oil who the fuck knows where it will go, but if i had to guess, its only going to go higher with the chaos in egypt looking like there is no near term end in site, yields hitting highs not seen in a few years, yet stocks just continue to rise inspite of this?
im lost.
also, i guess counting people who work 5 hours a week as jobs added is acceptable without anyone exposing this shit aside from zerohedge.
they should make it a holiday each week, because volume would be extremely thin, and what better way to pump stocks than on no volume?
well maybe this weekend we will get lucky and a meteor will hit the hamptons. we can only be so lucky.
the dollar goes higher as the oil goes to fund the Egyptian war machine. that would be the AMERICAN oil. (democracy might not be a winner here but Government sure is. at least over there it is.)
I think the White House has lost interest to keep the casino up.
The faction against QE has already won I'd say.
How about next week? Are we gonna see a White House order of obliteration?
ekm I think your mistake was thinking the white house ever had any interest in the first place.
President has been to Cairo.
Each time commodities are involved, it is National Security.
Nobody does anything without White House and the pertaining congress committee approval.
It's about overnight Draghi-dumps. For now. Gold will rise from the sewers and grab him by the balls.
after getting stabbed in the back by Europe the President then told Netanyahoo to apologize to Turkey...which he did do.
That's a rather fucked up tuna sandwich, served during a Kerry boating accident.
As a citizen who is part of the EUSSR (cough cough...EU), I have minimized my exposure to the banks. My paper cash is out of the system, I am 30% into physical Gold and laying low on spending waiting for the STHTF. It is only a question of time before Portugal asks for a second bailout ... and then comes a bank holiday if that happens. Yesterday, naked short selling was halted but resumed today ... the selloff continued. Shit, meet fan.
and then the President went to Jordan to have a confab with "his good friend" (and America's) "the King who used to have all that oil but was deposed" a LONG time ago. hmmmm. interesting. not on inside here but sure sounds like a plan.
This was one fucked up day, amongs many fucked up days over the past four-plus years.
Oil up huge. Bond yields up huge. Stocks up huge. Gold whacked huge.
So is it any wonder I've given up caring, drink whiskey all night long, and listen to disco music? I'd rather be drunk and have a good time while aboard the sinking Titanic.
I'd rather be drunk and have a good time while aboard the sinking Titanic.
Exactly. If my neighbors read ZH they would understand why I was holding sparklers with my butt cheeks at last night's suburbia fireworks bonanza.
as if you needed an excuse to do that...
Everything was fine until that Burrito Supreme took effect.
it would seem the Fed is about to raise interest rates imminently.
WTF AAPL
WTF AAPL
I have no clue what is going on with these markets. I wait patiently for reality to set in and meantime am very Red in all my accounts. Yup, gold, silver and good miners. At least I thought so.
Not giving in to Mr. Market. I know he wants my stash before he moves it all higher.
Anybody else notice it sucks to be a gold bug? What next, a complete collapse in hobby farm prices?
Hey, if you were thinking of using gold as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, it looks like you're SOL, but you can always take what's left of your money and buy SPY (hint, hint).
Best Regards
BB & TPTB
>> you can always take what's left
Fuck it. I feel likeSlim Pickens riding the A bomb down. I'm going to sit on this shit until detonation.
That, and we'll find out Pilates is BAD for your abs....
Just when I think it can't get anymore rediculous it does!! I mean I know why the talking heads and salesmen tow the party line ,but how can a day like today happen unless its the last chance to get out for a ton of leveraged . Maybe every momo trader has written every alto because its got to be obvious to anyone with an IQ of 90 that we are way past we having any real impact on anything other than just playing poker with play $. Maybe its just that I'm getting my ass kicked but this faux market is 2 years past expiration.
FED has thier Beowulf's sitting on the main trunk lines in front of each exchange.
FED took over the monetary system.
FED took over the mortgage market.
FED took over Washington D. C.
FED took over NSA.
FED took over the TV
FED militarized the police forces against the citizens of the United States of America.
FED sold all the US and foreign Gold Reserves.
FED took over the United States of America
FED took over by Goldman Sach and the Morgue.
FED fucked are we.
All hail Loyd Blankfeind and the ChairSatan Ben Bernanke.
The FED and its Shareholders Own The Known Universe.
I've seen some dumb trading market days in my lifetime but today took the cake for me. I'm at a loss for words.
i will drop all my gold in a volcano before i ever sell it to these motherfuckers
After reading all this, should one assume the economy actually is recovering, the stock market bull is real and everything will be fine?
The more I read ZH, the more confused I become, respectfully.
What's the Over/Under for how long before ZH posts on Stolper's Monday Muppetgram to go long Euros?
Stop loss of 1.28 is looming.
The stage has been set for the Wheels-Come-Off moment. Just wait for the next recession, which is unlikely to be more than 2 years off now. A fucked-up system you have never seen in your life.
10Y at 2.74% is a light coming on and the Fed/Treasury will be scurrying around like cockroaches. The smell of increased debt ceiling is in the air.
WTI Oil runs into channel resistance
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-wti-oil-daily-closes-channel-resis...
Energy useage continues to plummet.
Yet another divergence from reality.
As usual, the tail (emini futures) wags the dog (entire US stock market). Such a sham
Interesting pattern this week.
Around 10 long chats on the phone with some of my "middle class" clients. Not only are they selling bonds, but interestingly enough not all of the proceeds are going into cash. I'd say about 50% are taking some form of broad based ETF equity position (+large cap divi).
And for those already sitting on cash, they are all saying they want to wait a little more until they can lock in at 5-7% and then they are done.
Many of my clients have adjusted their lifestyles down to the point where they can live off of one retirement income stream and survive at 5% in the banks. As long as stocks do 3-5% over the next 10 years their portfolios will survice the necesary 3.8% yearly drawdown.
Its the ones who are overweighted in bond ETFs and ladders (Guggenheim Bullets) that I think face the most serious risk especially if they are entering the first few years of retirement right now. The next 10 years in bonds is going to be ugly.