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The Chart That Housing Bulls Don't Want You To See

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It is hard to square the economic circle of homebuilder/REIT-related equities falling (given concerns about the higher-rate environment) with a broad equity market rally as much predicated on the re-blowing of a real-estate bubble as any other real fundamental basis. The conundrum is perhaps even greater when we note that in spite of an unprecedented surge in mortgage rates, pending home sales surged in the most recent data. However, as the following chart makes all too clear, home sales lag mortgage rates with a very high level of correlation and it appears, we suspect, that this most recent surge in home sales (extrapolated by those of that bias to mean that the housing recovery is sustainable even with higher rates already crushing affordability) is merely a pulling forward of activity and will lead to a significant softening in coming months (especially relative to expectations) should the taper-tantrum in bonds remain.

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Sat, 07/06/2013 - 20:40 | 3727255 Killuminati
Killuminati's picture

JIM CRAMER: BEAR STEARNS IS FINE, $LINE IS FINE. 

CRAMER #1 STOCK PUMPER. SHOULD GET AN AWARD SOON. 

CRAMER IS LEBED'S LONG LOST FATHER

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:11 | 3727317 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

House sales in my area have plunged. Interestingly, the last few weeks too-many-to-count rental houses have popped up at the same time. Asking three of the local realtors I know from the Club...they said it's the rise in costs; namely, mortgage rates and oversupply.

 

Makes sense.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:33 | 3727358 Spider
Spider's picture

Yeah a 30% increase in mortgage payments per mortgage dollar isnt going to effect housing...

Just keep it quiet and nobody tell the stock algos

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:40 | 3727376 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Guys, pretty please with sugar on top, can we all go along with the "housing market is getting better" story for the next 30 days?  I just finished my Mom's old house and put it on the market 3 days ago.  Can I cash out before we all decide it's good sport to torpedo my very modest inheritance?

Please.  It's for the kids, after all (me, in this case).  I promise to invest the proceeds entirely in Gold.  I've learned my lesson, I won't do it again, please stop beating me.

 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:55 | 3727406 joego1
joego1's picture

The flogging will continue until JPM is has enough stuff.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:30 | 3727532 markmotive
markmotive's picture

And the video Canadian real estate agents don't want you to see...million dollar crack shacks in Vancouver.

US Housing Implosion 2.0?

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/05/the-million-dollar-crack-shack-man...

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:03 | 3727701 Lore
Lore's picture

I can tell you that these examples are extreme. You can find much more reasonable valuations depending on the neighborhood. Naturally, there is a lot of variation depending on factors like convenience (e.g., proximity to SkyTrain), density, speculative development value, and so on.  If you absolutely insist in loving close to downtown (which is where all those examples are located), then you must expect to pay at least $1M.  Basically, you're buying the land, not the house. 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:18 | 3727724 flacon
flacon's picture

When the riots start and blood is spilled... who would want to buy land downtown except to be used as a cemetary. 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:40 | 3727742 Lore
Lore's picture

My thought as well. You don't want to live in the core when SHTF.

Canada always lags the USA by a few years. Vancouver is teetering, but credit is still flowing and people are still coming. Sales are up; prices are up; sellers are optimistic again. This is a good time of year for sales, with kids out of school and people from cooler parts of the country still looking to the coast for retirement. Bear in mind too that the Canadian government has taken action to prevent ridiculous mortages. The longest now is 25 years, and you have to put ~10% down. Having a pulse and fogging a mirror is not enough.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 08:53 | 3727960 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

i'm in toronto for the weakend.  building cranes everywhere. one sign on a half built 50 story said live here this year only 5% down.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 14:43 | 3728479 Lore
Lore's picture

You're right. Apartments are a niche bubble, disconnected from reality. One of my co-workers recently bought a little shitbox sight unseen. Some people are born to a path of self destruction.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:23 | 3727738 Decolat
Decolat's picture

I went out to a nice restaraunt with my wife and parents tonight, quite uncommon for us, had a good time. The waitress said they will be closing the restaraunt on 'slower days' due to local home construction workers getting laid off and 'moving on elsewhere'. Really.

 

And that sums up the housing recovery in my mind. Totally figures in with the provided graph. Downward spiral since 2008 here on out. 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 12:56 | 3728226 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Who can afford this? Does the average family in Vancouver make 300.000 a year? Or is it only doctors and lawyers who buy these shacks?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 08:17 | 3727933 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

As I understand it, you can only get a true 30 year mortgage in Canada if you put down 20%. Under 20%, its based on a 25 year loan schedule with term resets every 4-5 years (think ARM) on fixed interest products or 7 years on a variable interest rate product. Penalties apply for prepayment and I believe, refinancing with a different company on interest not paid to original bank (?). Also have heard rumor that large banks are not financing new large residential projects in the Manitoba Winnipeg area.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:30 | 3727789 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Moar is their motto - there is no baseline.  Just moar.

When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes… Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”
–Napoleon Bonaparte, Emperor of France, 1815

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 19:22 | 3729178 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

1815 that's SO last century!  People change.

/sarc

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:53 | 3727801 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Spider, you'll like this Motley Fool Friday article (sorry No Debt):

Friday's "Catastrophic Surge" in Mortgage Rates

 

If you're thinking about buying a home, then you're probably not going to like what I'm about to say. On Friday, while you were busy nursing yourself back to life following the previous night's celebrations, mortgage rates exploded.

The daily recap from a widely followed mortgage industry publication characterized it as a "catastrophic surge," saying: "today's rise in mortgage rates is among the largest ever, and certainly the largest in the past 10 years. Today alone, rates rose more than most entire weeks."

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/06/fridays-catastrophic-su...

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:17 | 3727718 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Good points. I am seeing similar. I notice houses that actually sell are finally sold at about 15-25% lower then the original list price. Many never sell at all an dhave been oin the market for 98 days....137 days....some over 365 days! Zillow also shows the evaluations and selling problems to be thus for most neighborhoods (except for the outliers like parts of CA where the New Bubble is frothing up).

I see lots more rentals now too. Has to put lots of downward presure on rents. My guess is that trade is overcrowded as everyone plied into that market after taking a weekend seminar on "How to Become a Millionaire Investing in Rental Property." As insurance, maintenance, taxes, etc rise the results will be interesting if not painful.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:34 | 3727362 GenXer
GenXer's picture

Time to short Lumbar Liquidators and Home Depot

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:03 | 3727423 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

lumber itself has collapsed in price. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1424461-commodity-chart-of-the-day-lumbe... seems kind of odd that this would be a precursor to a housing boom. interest rates are rising. the economy has clearly downshifted. could be a soft landing...but the Fed certainly isn't broadcasting such a thing. and neither is Wall Street. seem downright gleeful by the whole thing actually...

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:51 | 3727488 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The explanation is that all the new houses are built of straw.  That way they won't last any lomger than the mortgage.

 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 03:27 | 3727813 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

CRAMER #1 STOCK PUMPER. SHOULD GET AN AWARD SOON. 

Yet he likes physical gold, just as an insurance, even though he thinks everything is fine... 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 20:40 | 3727257 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Housing bulls[hit].

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 20:55 | 3727283 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Bad news is good news nowadays...Rally on...It's all Bullshit!!

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:54 | 3727495 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

Fed will cut to the chase and start buying homes and neighborhoods outright and complete the cycle. Future generations will call them Obamapoli. 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 00:02 | 3727597 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

Perfect. Uncle Benny, would you buy my house? I want to move back to Michigan now that Colorado has turned into a socialist hellhole.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:02 | 3727972 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Yeah.  Fuck Colorado.  Get out while you can.  

I70 East!

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 13:11 | 3728242 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

It's a damned shame too. I've been here for 20 years. Love the place. The mountains, the high desert, it rocks. I put down roots. Then the Californians started showing up. After fouling their own nest so badly its now unlivable, they are fouling ours in the exact same way.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 20:46 | 3727267 tao400
tao400's picture

I am trying to sell my 2 million dollar house. Our realtor said that there are no buyers, in fact she said in the last month all the buyers have dried up for any house over 500k. I live in a very expensive area so 500k buys very little. a couple months ago, thiings were going gangbusters. the chart above seems to be the answer.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 20:50 | 3727273 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

no middle east or asian buyers with all cash? I see a lot of that in the million plus markets. it's the 500k to 1 mil range where people need mortgages that I see getting stung bad in the near future

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 20:55 | 3727282 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

True, but there was significant demand among silicon valley buyers (assuming the poster is located somewhere nearby) who would flip their $1.5M place for a $2M new place with a $500K mortgage, but if they can't sell and rates are going up then they are out of the market.    And a lot of foreign buyers with big $$s have already been sucked in.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:03 | 3727300 GoldRulesPaperDrools
GoldRulesPaperDrools's picture

The same thing happened in northern VA where they had foreigners driving taxi cabs buying $1M homes with $10k down in cash.  Now that you need a significant down payment, all the construction has shifted to smaller, cheaper (sub $600k) housing but they're still sucking people in.  Good luck when the rates go up and the D.C. jobs dry up.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:51 | 3727395 joego1
joego1's picture

D.C. jobs dry up? You mean after everyone has been shuffled off to fema camps? No, not for a long long time. There will be jobs in D.C. until they turn the lights off sometime after the SHTF. Oman will make sure of that.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:12 | 3727322 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Fonz:

I see people across the board getting stung, if they owe a lot on a mortgage, period, regardless of the house value. 

A few years ago, houses in my immediate area were 600K-1M, these same houses today are available at $250K-$400K.

Looking at the lower-priced houses, a lot of the recent starter home buyers are underemployed/unemployed. Add the job insecurity, unhealthy debt picture, the likelihood of bail-ins, and the lack of savings, and most of these people are at serious risk...

 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:18 | 3727330 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

No doubt croesus. Everyone is going go get stung. If rates keep creeping higher and crude does the same stagflation is going to rip the guts out of what is left of this economy. That will look like a picnic when the final stage gets here.

20 years of Japan style deflation would be heaven in comparison.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:30 | 3727343 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

the banks only seem to be writing loans on new houses and then quickly turning these dog loans over to the the govt ASAP. there have been for sale signs sprouting all over the last few months w/ people buying into the "housing recovery " lies from the MSM- this glut is driving prices even lower with increased competition- more unintended consequences. the local taxing bodies love the new construction ( even slashing tap-on fees and permit costs because they know they'll quickly recoup those on taxes) because they ignore foreclosure and short sale prices for assessments and use these new homes to increase assessments- so nobody gets a fucking break from these cocksucking thieves on property taxes. 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:38 | 3727360 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ otto skorzeny:

I don't remember where I read it, but someone in the "community" said that government is backing itself into a corner at all levels, and it's the damn truth.

Property taxes here go up every year, mostly because of the school system, 64% of which is going to salaries and pensions. "Doing it for the Children"......meanwhile, half of them can't even put together a damn sentence, and are completely feminized and pacified by this feel-good propaganda that gets drummed into their heads.

In my county, the county commissioners recently voted to spend $60K, to hire a consulting company to determine where/how money is being wasted.....

I'd laugh, if it wasn't so g-damned sad.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:41 | 3727378 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I go in every year to get my home reassessed lower for taxes and last year the old bag working with me said " you should consider it a privilege that you get to pay taxes(5 figure$ worth) for such good govt services" - it took all of my effort not to choke her to death.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:49 | 3727392 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Otto Skorzeny:

Our locally-elected shitheads sound just like yours...

Sadly, these people actually believe they are 'doing the right thing', and the concepts that are common knowledge to you, me, and most ZH regulars are completely lost on them.

They'll figure it out eventually.....after it's too late.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:00 | 3727401 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

at this point everyone working for .gov assumes a "you fucking owe us " attitude. my brother- in - law is a 6 figure firefighter and I can't even stand to be in the same room as the whiny bitch.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:07 | 3727513 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

moonbean knows the only thing standing between him and a gallows is this thin line of jackbooted swine. he has his tongue placed squarely on the taint of the public employee unions.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:18 | 3727521 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Otto:

The attitude they have is what gets on my nerves; John G's post below sounds a lot like me (and probably you), regarding the property tax situation.

It goes up every year, while the quality of service goes down. You go in for the appeal and get lied to, and jerked around, by people who think they're "getting one over on you".

 

 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 00:03 | 3727600 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

at this point the "services" consist of the govt making payroll and paying pensions- without the tax bucks the boot on your throat no longer exists. why can't the Bernank just print up a few hundred billion to cover everyone's tax bill?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:12 | 3727714 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I have some in laws who work for the federal government. They make more than primary care doctors and will retire at full or near full pay. I cannot stand hearing how much whiney government workers make. The stats say double the private sector wages and benefits. I want pay scales made public so people can see that we actually serve the government.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 10:16 | 3728049 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

<<"you fucking owe us " attitude>>

 

Am I too late to grab one of those free, zero-down, no proof-of-job houses?  It's only fair they give me one too!

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:27 | 3727456 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

So do I.  Every fucking year.  It's like a ritual.  With me, I have a large property, yet only a tiny fraction (13 acres) is what's "improved."  The rest is all trees.  It's the unimproved area that they mark up every year and I just don't quite understand how they - every year - tell me it's worth far more than it is.

I'm a tree farmer (also some eggs, turkeys and a couple dozen cows), way in the middle of nowhere.  Slow work (heh) and I stock it with deer and turkey and lease it to a couple of hunting clubs.  Weyerhauser comes in every 5 years and harvests 1/4 of the property, then replants. 

Trees are worth less right now than they were 5 years ago, and the county every year tells me different.

Pisses me off.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:53 | 3727490 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What?

You're a land owner who believes in his rights?

You are the enemy.  They are probably eyeing your property for an employee training center, Governor's retreat, or FEMA trailer camp.

Can't you just move into an apartment in town, get an EBT card, and shop at WalMart like the other serfs?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 00:53 | 3727690 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

There's a great line in the movie "Jeremiah Johnson."

He was asked if he wanted to go to town.

His reply was: "No, I've been to a town."

 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:16 | 3727719 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Yes, the property tax is a racket on multiple levels. Government knows it is far too big, heavy and expensive to fight. They just raised my taxes again for far above what I could sell my place for. They used to use only about 80% of the value but now it is more like 110%.

The rational way to tax would be to simply send everyone a bill just like all your other bills. However, property value taxes have built in revenue increases without ever having to lift a finger or put a tax to a vote. Your property could double in value, yet it does not mean that the cost of services rise or your income and ability to pay.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:37 | 3727793 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Read Tragedy and Hope

http://real-world-news.org/bk-quigley/00.html

The British oligarchs instituted the property tax in order to force self sufficient land owners into the Debt Star system (Debt Money Matrix, if you will).

Renown insider Georgetown historian and Presidential mentor, Carroll  Quigley states it plain as day.

If you want the financial skinny about how Bernanke is a sock puppet with zero power...  start reading at Chapter 19...

http://real-world-news.org/bk-quigley/07.html

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 08:56 | 3727965 SolarSystem1932
SolarSystem1932's picture

Stunning, yet pulled from the shelf? A must-read for that reason alone.

From The Introduction

http://real-world-news.org/bk-quigley/00.html

There really is a "world system of financial control in private hands" that is "able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world." I call this system the World Trade Federation. It is an ultra-secret group of the most powerful men on the earth. They now control every major international institution, every major multinational and transnational corporation both public and private, every major domestic and international banking institution, every central bank, every nation - state on earth, the natural resources on every continent and the people around the world through complicated inter-locking networks that resemble giant spider webs. This group is comprised of the leading family dynasties of the Canada, United States, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Russia and China. This self-perpetuating group has developed an elaborate system of control that enables them to manipulate government leaders, consumers and people throughout the world. They are in the last stages of developing a World Empire that will rival the ancient Roman Empire.

 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:48 | 3727761 A Dollar Short
A Dollar Short's picture

John, you must live in the Marxist state of Washington?  Hope you not under the Gorge control.., that's the worst I've seen anywhere.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 11:59 | 3728161 Seer
Seer's picture

I don't know whether I'm smart or lucky, perhaps a little of both, but... My property taxes have gone DOWN; and mind you, they were low to begin with- it's Ag land.  I bought a couple of years back when things had already gone in the tank and the assessed value had went from over 1/2 mil to less than 1/4 mil.  I believe that the taxes went down something like 13% for this year.  Also, my assessed value is MORE than what I paid.

So far I've managed to counter the notions that "property values never go down" and "property taxes always go up."  Sometimes you just have to be able to "see" things that others don't/cannot.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:05 | 3727511 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

i moved into a farmhouse with an existing pond a few years ago and my taxes doubled. the assesor said i had waterfront property. no joke. dirty fucking upstate NY fucks. 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:52 | 3727567 nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

Owning land with no mortgage seems like a great idea, until you realize the taxes can be raised to infinity times infinity. Skunk farmers land doesn't go up in value, it fucking stinks.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 13:17 | 3728249 Seer
Seer's picture

"Owning land with no mortgage seems like a great idea, until you realize the taxes can be raised to infinity times infinity."

Do you think that tax increases don't happen to property with rentals and that such increases don't get passed along in the form of rents?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 11:57 | 3728158 yogibear
yogibear's picture

How does feel being viewed as an unlimited ATM? You never own the property, you lease it with them having the right to raise property taxes infinitely.

But it's for the children and the public  workers so they can be sun birds during the winter and have very nice vacations every year.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 12:06 | 3728164 Seer
Seer's picture

So, they all of a sudden decided to change their assessment, you didn't make any change (and it's as it was when you bought it)?

I once had a home in which the assessor magically changed my 1/2 basement to some sort of finished/livable basement.  After a quick tour of said basement they could no longer justify their change and they reversed.  I'd been living there for years, so it wasn't like they had any reason to justify a change (such as recent sales price or any building permit).

Learned a long time ago that I didn't want any property that had either a water view (such as my previous property) or a water "feature."

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:43 | 3727382 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

When you're carrying a back-breaking debt load, you're always backed into a corner.  Doesn't matter if it's on the personal level or national.

You'll notice my screen name.  It was not chosen by accident.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:52 | 3727397 Croesus
Croesus's picture

+1,000,000!

I'm proud to say that I'm also in that camp, and it's a damn good feeling. I don't know how some people sleep at night. ...

 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 00:10 | 3727614 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

Don't forget that a symptom of depression is not only restless/lack of sleep but also over sleeping. It's a way of escaping life situations.

Drink lots, pass out, wake up, go to work, get home, drink lots, go to sleep, wake up, go to work. Rinse and repeat. It's a shitty way to live but it's all some blokes have.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:50 | 3727762 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

You describe a goddamed nightmare, sir.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:44 | 3727799 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

It would be wouldn't it!

Unfortunately I know more than one who are living just such a life. And these aren't minimum wagers either but typical (ex?) middle class.

It seems so many people are acting somewhat strange these days. I think Fonzanoon said something similar a few months back, but I'm noticing shit going on that never would have occurred 10 or even 5 years ago. People are stressed but they don't know where to direct it because they can't pinpoint the issue... they see their friends being made part timers, they see the increase in food as they walk the aisles in the supermarket, they see the rising fuel costs. Yet they justify it along the lines of "maybe it's just the people I know, after all they say the economy is strong" or "My mates and I have just had a bad run lately but things will turn around".

Sad. Very sad. But what can ya do!

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 03:39 | 3727817 RichardP
RichardP's picture

But what can ya do!

What would Samuel Adams say?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:02 | 3727973 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Become a tea smuggler.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 12:55 | 3728224 Seer
Seer's picture

"Sad. Very sad. But what can ya do!"

There is NOTHING that people can do as long as they continue to operate on the paradigm that is programmed as "the status quo."  That is why they end up doing nothing.  This is a matter of people failing to question the premise; with a false premise, unless one created and or dictates the premise, there is NO "solution."  People are programmed to believe that there's a solution, and that if they are not finding/experiencing it then it is THEY who are failing- never do they ask themselves if the failure is due to a flawed premise.

People are going to be faced with having to let go.  They can somewhat shape things by being proactive, or they can be shaped by things reactively.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:39 | 3727796 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Not quite.

The local, county, state and federal debt is owed by you and backed by the police state.

Since most people don't have two nickels to rub together once their debt is resolved, you owe their debts, too.

I know, I'm in the same boat as you and we are targets with red dots all over us.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:38 | 3728011 Too Big 2
Too Big 2's picture

The company I use to get my property taxes reduced is Assessment Appeal Advisors. Www.assessmentappealadvisors.com No upfront fees and they bill based on the amount they save. If they arent succesful then there is no fee. Ask for Elliott.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:41 | 3727544 W74
W74's picture

Still beats renting, and you're paying taxes for that anyway.

I'm not saying to buy high (which is now) either.  Housing costs have to come down for ANY recovery to occur.  Once it does people can free up some of what was going toward essential costs and spend it on other crap that employs people.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:43 | 3727798 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

It beats renting until the interest becomes non deductible - that's a 20% hit to housing prices over night.

Then the economic collapse will hit home prices badly as well.

Remember those gains on the way up?  The losses will be faster.

I'd love to sell the house and get some land and stick a mobile home on it for cheap in order to ride this collapse out, but I can't do that and keep working in my present situation.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 13:12 | 3728244 Seer
Seer's picture

"I'd love to sell the house and get some land and stick a mobile home on it for cheap in order to ride this collapse out"

I see a problem with this statement.  No, not the "get some land" part.  And not the "mobile home part."  It's the "to ride this collapse out" part.

Change it to:

"I'd love to sell the house and get some land and stick a mobile home on it for cheap because that is what I WANT to do."

The words "riding out a collapse" put you in a category of trying to pick tops and bottoms.  It COULD be used as an excuse for inaction: or an excuse for failure.

Research.  Put a plan together and then EXECUTE it and don't look back!  Have confidence that you are doing the best you can and that in hindsight you'll ALWAYS be able to say that you could have done better (and if you wish to prove it then you can then strive for another shot, though at some point, especially if trying to do so too frequently, you'd have to ask yourself if your planning and execution methods ought not be questioned (rather than the pieces that you played).

I stuck with a plan and the execution cost me a marriage.  Shit like that happens: better to experience it when things aren't dire than when they are/will be.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:27 | 3727736 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I chatted with my former realtor who said people don't want a used house. "Hard as heck to sell anything more then five years old," she said. "More then 15 years and they think it's a historic monument."

She cracks me up.

I guess it's no longer the "Pepsi Generation"...it's now the "replace-my-iPad-every-6-months, disposable generation."

However, the kids may be on to something whether they realize it or not. These houses built the past decade were thrown up so fast with crappy labor and construction I see many of them start falling apart after 5 years. Woods full of knots, uneven floors, cracked foundations, mold, titling door jams...you name it. My brother does remodelling and says he is set for life repairng these houses. Anyone know what a "foundation repair" costs?

Try 15% to 25% of the houses value!

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 13:40 | 3728307 Seer
Seer's picture

There's always been "shit" built.  However, cheaper stuff becomes "shit" really fast if not maintained properly.  If anything I'd have to say a big reason for this is because people don't understand maintenance.

I'd watched as some old farmhouse sat unoccupied.  This was in prime Ag land, in which case it wasn't some old dump.  An upstairs window was left open: someone came along and boarded up the windows on the lower level BUT STILL left the upstairs window open!  I can only imagine the damage done by the rain passing through that window (damage to upstairs AND downstairs!).  I figure this house is being left to die... this sort of thing will be happening more and more (and it won't be relegated to only areas such as Detroit!).

"My brother does remodelling and says he is set for life repairng these houses."

IF people can afford it!  And that leads me to my second point: in many cases it's not a matter that people don't understand maintenance but that they cannot afford it (spent over their heads for the mortgage on the pretty new house and then after several years of "deferred maintenance" and wage cuts their homes start hitting the irreversible phase.)

When I bought my property my house needed a new roof.  It's a cheap home.  I shelled out for an expensive (metal) roof because I realize that roofs are important!

As you note, foundations are also important: I made sure of this one with my house.  Non-repairs are also expensive: cracked walls; cracked window seals...  Lots of this kind of stuff as developers built on marginal land: some requirements have helped (were supposed to help) mitigate this problem, but as the housing frenzy pushed on it did so in ever-increasing marginal land.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:18 | 3727440 JMT
JMT's picture

{{{{Looking at the lower-priced houses, a lot of the recent starter home buyers are underemployed/unemployed. Add the job insecurity, unhealthy debt picture, the likelihood of bail-ins, and the lack of savings, and most of these people are at serious risk...}}}

 

Tough Shit.. I bet these all those whiners have the latest 65inch flat screen TV in every room, the latest smartphone, can somehow afford to eat out every night..

Tell me exactly how come personal responsibility doesn't come into play with these poor recent starter home buyers who "appear to be" un or underemployed.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:54 | 3727570 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ JMT:

I agree with that 100%. The way I see it, these people choose 'ignorance'.

Nobody held a gun to their heads, and told them "consume, NOW". They bought into the lies and the deceptions.

The whole situation......the economy, economic collapse, vanishing human decency, etc., can all be summed up in one phrase: "the price of ignorance".

 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 14:26 | 3728424 Seer
Seer's picture

"The way I see it, these people choose 'ignorance'."

Some, yes.  Some are just plain ignorant.  I was once unvoluntarily ignorant: I voluntarily opted to discover my ignorances (took the Red Pill).

As long as we believe that we can have a system that is predicated on perpetual growth (on a finite planet!) we're fucking ignorant.  The System locks us into it and does NOT give us any choice within IT.

As I was not born knowing all about this I'll give people the benefit of the doubt and opt instead to blame the System (for it is the System that presents the very flawed fundamental premise).

There should be no surprise as to WHY things are happening as they are.  It's NOT because people are somehow now more ignorant or wicked.

Consider the real forces at play.  From http://www.wesjones.com/asimov.htm

MOYERS: What happens to the idea of the dignity of the human species if this population growth continues at its present rate?

ASIMOV: It will be completely destroyed. I like to use what I call my bathroom metaphor: If two people live in an apartment, and there are two bathrooms, then both have freedom of the bathroom. You can go to the bathroom anytime you want to and stay as long as you want to for whatever you need. And everyone believes in the freedom of the bathroom; it should be right there in the Constitution.

But if you have twenty people in the apartment and two bathrooms, no matter how much every person believes in freedom of the bathroom, there is no such thing. You have to set up times for each person, you have to bang at the door: “Aren’t you through yet?” and so on. In the same way, democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive it. Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people onto the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears. It doesn’t matter if someone dies. The more people there are, the less one individual matters.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 00:22 | 3727652 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

"Tough Shit.. I bet these all those whiners have the latest 65inch flat screen TV in every room, the latest smartphone, can somehow afford to eat out every night.."

Bullshit. The cheapest place in my city of over a million people is a 1 bedroom flat in a shitty area that still goes for around $275,000US.

Sure - the ones buying them are being suckered into it; But cut the crap that everyone doing so has all the latest and greatest gadgets - it's simply not true. They are spending nearly all there money paying the mortgage repayments, food, and transport. Simple as that. Look over house prices to average yearly earnings over the past 100 odd years compared to now.

The video listed above re Vancouver also applies to most cities in Australia. The ones with all the latest gadgets you speak of are those living with their parents and also have a job. Not those who've entered into the housing market at the current time (ignorant of them as it is - they sure as shit are making use of verge side collection or second hand furniture)

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:04 | 3727976 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

In a word, credit.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:02 | 3727299 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

The same thing happened during the last housing bubble- sales slowed to nothing  in a matter of a few weeks. The few neighborhoods being built around here are filling up with .gov employees and retirees.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 14:30 | 3728443 Seer
Seer's picture

I see all sorts of military stickers on vehicles running around in my countryside.  Fortunately, my neighbors are not members of the Praetorian Guard.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:52 | 3727399 starman
starman's picture

I closed on May 22nd on my 1.250K sale. All cash buyer. The "realestate rally" has toped out in May. Now its on the way to go back -20%, or to reality. 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:38 | 3727540 W74
W74's picture

Good, now (depending on what part of the country you live in) go buy a house between 150-300K and live the same, or better, quality of life that you did before.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:04 | 3727293 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

What will be funny is when (if it has not happened already) discovery channels "gold rush" and "flip this piece of shit" real estate shows are all cancelled because everyone busted out but were lucky enough to get bartending jobs at buffalo wild wings.

This season on "bartending battles" Jimmy from Gold Rush alaska gets his foot run over by a fat guy in a motorized scooter while trying to balance a tray of pabst blue ribbon at Houstons in a mall outside san antonio.....

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:04 | 3727301 GoldRulesPaperDrools
GoldRulesPaperDrools's picture

Hey, I like Buffalo Wild Wings (BWW or Bee-Dubs, NOT BBW)! ;)

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:36 | 3727539 W74
W74's picture

Freudian keystroke.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:06 | 3727304 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I would love to see Armando Montelongo be reduced to pimping his wife out to make ends meet.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:08 | 3727307 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I shudder to think what Dog Whisperer will do to make ends meat.  But I'm pretty sure there's a website for it.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:36 | 3727537 W74
W74's picture

What will they do to make ends meAt?  Go full Korea on their pets?  Maybe.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:17 | 3727520 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Lol otto that montelongo guy is lame but wifey is hot

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 14:38 | 3728463 Seer
Seer's picture

It'd be so very funny if not for the fact that it's going to prove to be highly tragic.

And yet people still don't get it that their lives ARE "The Truman Show" (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120382/).

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:09 | 3727310 max2205
max2205's picture

NFLX PE 600...no problem

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:53 | 3727403 Bear
Bear's picture

I didn't believe you, but: P/E (ttm): 551.72

I bought Jul puts with expectation for July down move ... bought at 1.90 ... it went to 6.20 ... I  sold at 1.80 last Wed. Insane pricing but you do get a nice eps of $ 0.41. I guess the thinking is that without jobs everyone will just lounge around watching movies ... WTF earnings at 552!!!

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:55 | 3727803 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

I canceled cable and just go with Netflix:  Some good shows related to this Debt Money Matrix world in which we live:

1. 1972 Rollerball - Rollerball is incidental to the real plot.  Pay attention... corporations bankrupting the nations, dElite oligarchs created Rollerball to damage athletes and prevent a rebellion coming from allegiance to an athlete, corporate execs stealing athlete wives, etc...

2. They Live - All the "aliens" wear a suit and tie and a whole bunch of humans align with them to take over the world... for the paycheck and chance to be on the "winning team."

3. Michael Clayton - Turn on subtitles for opening classic rant by Arthur.  "Who are you?"  Good question that ought to be asked more often.

4. Black Money

5. The Panama Deception - called "the most disturbing thing I've ever seen" by a viewing mate of mine.

6. Taxi to the Dark Side

7. The Corporation

8a. A Film Unfinished
8b. Empire in Africa - Can you tell the difference between Hitler's walled in Ghettos and the bankster ruled UN's nation state Ghettos in third world countries?  I came up with two - no fence requirement and better marketing.

9. Cancer, Inc.

10. The World According to Monsanto

If you get through all those, ask my and I'll think of more.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:25 | 3727997 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

Great recommendations including dropping TeeVee....

IMHO - They Live - completely overlooked due to Roddy Piper who is actually pretty good in it - but if you think about, they tell the story 11 years before 'The Matrix". 

And of course this classic from South Park:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWk6RgQbPVc

 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:44 | 3728018 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

I like your list and if I may add to it, just a little:

 

Network

Blade Runner

Cloud Atlas

There Will Be Blood

The Road

Children of Men

 

Happy Viewing!  Don't Kill your TV, just improve its diet so that it puts out less garbage.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 12:35 | 3728202 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Last 2 NFLX?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 14:45 | 3728487 Seer
Seer's picture

Brazil.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:10 | 3727313 knukles
knukles's picture

Everything is all hunkie dory a-OK, all right as rain, going gangbusters.
Don't worry be happy, spend like you've got an unlimited checking account on the Fed, don't believe a damned thing that the Nattering Nabobs of Negativism are trying to make you believe.
This is how rumors cause Declines of Empire.


snarkola

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:13 | 3727325 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

"I apologize for lying to you. I promise I won't deceive you except in matters of this sort."  Spirow Agnew.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:29 | 3727348 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Nobody pushes the drug of Housing Recovery as much as National Public Radio and it's economics reports and financial programs. I have heard any number of shills given time on NPR to proclaim the housing recovery and explain the good economy now driving housing. It is sort of like, "all the well paid workers do not want to miss out on the big upside in housing."

I swear, I have heard even worse than that. NPR is so far in the pockets of the "Builders" "The Real Estate Industry" and "The Banks" that it isn't even funny. Once NPR began to take advertizing and to run commercials, it has slipped into the pockets of Housing Industry Corporations and associations. Their coverage is quite simply a pack of lies.

I have a friend who is a small, private contractor. He will do the entire general contracting job and does most of the work himself, and bids out electrical and plumbing. He has actually begun to build spec homes again! He has been fooled into buying in to the Housing Recovery. With interest rates headed up and investors cooling to the buy to rent model, I hope he builds this last spec home and then runs for cover! I plan on hiring him for a small job, I am going to warn him of the danger he is in, let's see if he accepts the advice.

Media and the RE industry are hell bent of manipulating the public and builders into acting against their own self interests. Nothing new there.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:36 | 3727359 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

no offense- but why even listen to that bullshit? I would drive under a fuel tanker if I had to listen to it. the govt pushes housing because it is the most massive driver of consumption in the US economy by far.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:39 | 3727373 knukles
knukles's picture

Is NPR biased?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:13 | 3727435 Hulk
Hulk's picture

does npr take in federal funds ???

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:12 | 3727715 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

Is a pigs pussy pork?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:52 | 3728027 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Just discovered the feeling of coffee through the nose!!

 

I love you guys!

 

I swear, if most of you are like this in person I'll through the party, first Keg and case ot Tequilla is on me.  Bring your own for the grill.

 

We'll solve some world problems.  It'll be fun.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 03:01 | 3727807 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Rockefeller Foundation and mega corporate funded, right?

Come on...

Interesting aside.

I was at a local Occupy event trying to talk sense to people.  I was discussing the fake media with about 5 guys when a lady over heard our conversation and said, "Not Democracy Now."

I looked her dead in the eys and asked, "Do you know about debt based money?"

She replied, "I've known about debt based money since 1979!"

I queried back, "Have you ever heard Democracy Now! discuss debt based money?"

She hesitated, her previous cocksure confidence melting away before my eyes.

"No," she responded.

I replied, "Controlled" (as in controlled media - she understood).

"I guess you are right," she reluctantly admitted.

I give credit to her, though.  She didn't run from logic and reason and admitted she was wrong when the evidence was presented.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:15 | 3727989 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Isn't "Democracy Now!" the media arm of the Socialist Worker's Party?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 06:53 | 3727880 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Wut? The National Propaganda Review? Not biased at all, truthiness 24/7 delivered by people so soft-spoken as to almost be whispering.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 13:53 | 3728335 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

NPR is a long sad story. In short, the advent of advertizing and commercials has changed the nature of reporting. The pressure from government has grown to where NPR is an official mouthpiece for Government, espcially weighted towards the war agenda abroad and the police state agenda at home.

When the control of NPR passed to corporations and the government, you have the perfect fascist setup.

I listen, because my Public radio is not the same as Public radio in other states. They carry some major NPR programs, but 90% of programming is of local state interest. When it comes to state issues, they are much better than our commerical media.

On a national level. NPR is a complete whore of the Neo-Con movement and corporate interests. It is pretty bad, every NPR report reminds me of the time I spent in the Soviet Union, and every hotel room had a radio above the bed. It was tuned to one channel, and that channel was a Soviet English language propaganda channel. Not much different in intent than today's NPR, though a fascist agenda is served.

NPR is so pro war and pro-Syrian rebels that is makes me almost puke!

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 14:59 | 3728529 Seer
Seer's picture

"On a national level. NPR is a complete whore of the Neo-Con movement and corporate interests."

Seems to have gone south after the US invaded Iraq.

Every once in a while as I tune the radio I stumble across it and am utterly amazed at how polluted it's become.  One need only pay attention to the sponsors to see how it's gotten corrupted.  While some can make a case that this is socialist/communist I could make the case that this fits perfectly well with fascism.

There's a reason why all of the media refers to themselves as being in the "programming" business.

And the "corporate" controlled radio... more and more of it is becoming run from some single centralized place, and it too is over-laden with BS advertising (fucking non-stop pitches for "veterans" insurance or whatnot; that or why people MUST buy diamonds).

It's ALL about whoring.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 21:52 | 3727400 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

"Nobody pushes the drug of Housing Recovery as much as National Public Radio and it's economics reports and financial programs."

Why would you listen to or believe anything that comes out of NPR? It's a known fact that NPR is national propaganda radio from the statists. They are taxpayer subsidized and attack business people and advocates of limited government regulary. They're not "in the pocket" of anyone but big Govt. If bernanke wants the message to be that "there is a housing recovery", thats's exactly what they'll broadcast.

NPR Helps Spread Government Propaganda

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?177774-NPR-Helps-Spread-Government-Propaganda

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2013/05/22/Propaganda-NPR-Incorrectly-Claims-IRS-Has-Nothing-to-do-With-Obamacare

NPR News: National Pentagon Radio?

http://educate-yourself.org/cn/nprexposed27mar08.shtml

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:06 | 3727425 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

PBS is worse - a few months ago NOVA had a puff piece on "the wonders of drone aircraft " sponsored by - you guessed it- lockheed-martin. I almost puked

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:12 | 3727434 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Anything that is Govt funded is Govt controlled and serves it's masters.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:59 | 3727584 Monedas
Monedas's picture

That's the ticket .... PBS .... Puke Broadcast Service !

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 13:55 | 3728345 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Yes, Otto! I also happened across that propaganda show for the Obama death machines. America has sunk so low that it celebrates it's murder machines and the makers of the murder machines sponser the show!

What more can you say?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 09:15 | 3727986 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

That may be the point....just about EVERY democrat and anyone who is stupid who wants people to think they're smart, LISTENS to NPR and PBS.  

NPR - Where Stupid Is! (tm)

Edit - guess the same applies to republicans (though not nearly as many) who watch fox.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:15 | 3728578 Seer
Seer's picture

"They are taxpayer subsidized and attack business people and advocates of limited government regulary. They're not "in the pocket" of anyone but big Govt."

ADM.  Boeing.  Such are the likes I've heard pushed as advertisers.  As noted above, I only pause every once in a while as I tweak the radio dial (and try to dodge the wonderful messages presented by all the up-standing non-govt folks- like selling veterans insurance or telling everyone how they have to buy diamonds).

It's corporate propaganda more than govt propaganda.  Remember: govt doesn't make or sell anything; the whoring is on the behalf of big corporations (which are not govt), the same ones who write the fucking legislation.

"NPR News: National Pentagon Radio?"

Yes, there you have it!  Follow the money and you come to the likes of Boeing and Lockheed and ADM.  These entities utilize the feel-good stuff from the Rockefeller Foundation (and similar) to drag people into war (to "save/rescue" whatever).  The REAL winners can be seen by looking at the bottom lines.

Meanwhile on the "private" side of things, on the not-military related side, there's the like of Coors.  Hooking people on alcohol so that they can be fired-up wife-beaters who pledge allegiance to the ruling masters by working for these folks.  But hey, this is private business where things are much more noble...

It is foolish to split hairs.  BIG = FAIL.

"limited govt" is like being a little pregnant.  It's something that only exists in the land of unicorns.  The power-mongers will ALWAYS seek out and get control of the levers of power.  And as we've seen even the "best" govt that's ever been devised by humans has fallen to this.  ANY govt that has the ability to kill will be able to grow as it wishes (until it just can no longer happen).  Why not remove the entire, ultimate/eventual conclusion by signing up for NO govt?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:48 | 3727484 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yup.

NPR, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNBC - all of them - housing recovery here - great jobs numbers this Friday - now go buy some shit - on radio, T.V., online.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:03 | 3727422 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

anyone else get the feeling that this dude snowden could be the trojan horse for the final takeover?

They bring this kid back here for the biggest circus event in history. The media go all in like never before on the traitor propoganda. Almost everyone on this site finally snaps and hits the streets along with a shitload of other people. Rewards are given out to msm ass suckers to turn in anyone displaying pro traitor and anti americanism. 

A true divide happens between friends, families etc. and the authorities make it very clear which team are the bad guys.

or am i paranoid?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:07 | 3727427 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

can't it wait til after the NFL season is over?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:09 | 3727430 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

somehow it won't affect ticket sales or t.v ratings.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:12 | 3727433 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I'll be tuning in this season and trying to decide which tattooed steroid freak is the next murderer.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:31 | 3727535 slimething
slimething's picture

Really, before it too is totally ruined, which is occurring at a rapid pace.

 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:18 | 3727443 PlausibleDenial
PlausibleDenial's picture

Yes, you are paranoid....and you should be.  As I commented last week, I have no friends....

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:45 | 3727479 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Not even Mr Smith and Mr Wesson?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:49 | 3727556 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I have no friends .... only my comrades here .... could possibly understand me !  It's lonely .... being a hoarder .... it's not something you can talk about .... like golf and football ?

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:22 | 3728599 Seer
Seer's picture

Always need another "Pearl Harbor event"...  They're great for whipping the citizenry into compliance.

At some point, however, one has to wonder just how long any such card can be reliably played out.  Sometimes fires cannot be so controllable...

Without a doubt TPTB will ply all of this to their favor, or at least try to.  No matter, NO outcome is going to leave us with warm fuzzies... I just don't think that there sufficient enough plunder to distract the masses anymore, and without such TPTB wouldn't be able to hold on for very long.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:12 | 3727428 JMT
JMT's picture

Many people who 'owe too much' on their mortgage and who are gong to get stung because  they "appear to un or underemployed" or whatever don't want to face the main issue -- which is that their money management skills plainly & simply suck..

You know the priorites of many if not most people in America today are the latest smartphone, at least one Lexus/BMW/Acura or Infinity (on a lease or with a 72 month payment), designer clothes that cost $100 for a basic mens shirt or $300 jeans etc... yes this probably is the reason for most financial problems involving debt and all of consumer bankruptcies

I have to say, I dont have much sympathy especially when rents are rising in most markets between 5% - 20% on an annual basis.. These people who owe to much on their mortgage can just  decide to stop paying for 6-12 months (or even longer than that in many parts of country) and live essentially home payment free..  Miss a rent payment and not only will you find an eviction notice on your door within days, but you may be blacklisted from renting in all but the most ghetto ungentrified neighborhoods 

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:44 | 3728648 Seer
Seer's picture

"These people who owe to much on their mortgage can just  decide to stop paying for 6-12 months (or even longer than that in many parts of country) and live essentially home payment free..  Miss a rent payment and not only will you find an eviction notice on your door within days"

So, who are the dumb ones here?

"Hang the bankers!"  "Fuck the bankers!"  "Screw the bankers!"  "Ring up credit card debt and buy PMs!"  These are fairly popular phrases that pop up here on ZH: I'm not judging them, they are what they are and they are to each for their own reasons.  I see them as being perhaps little different than what the folks who stop making mortgage payments are doing.

Rather than try and take my frustrations out on everyone else I tend to apply it constructively.  I have no control over others (and wouldn't wish to).  And, certainly, I have no control over TPTB, who create the playing field.

"their money management skills plainly & simply suck"

I choose to pay on a mortgage.  Doing so allowed me to retain liquidity and to provide a, albeit likely very slim, hedge for the possibility that a mortgage collector would one day stop coming by.  For now I can state that I am able to pay.  I do not know what the future will hold.  I do not know whether my risk assessment skills will prove successful.  And, really, compared to most in the world I could state that my financial decisions suck: my wife is from Manila; go there sometime and tell me that all those hordes of people are shitty at managing finances! (when you have very little there's very little room for navigation- and, PLEASE, do NOT tell me that they're a bunch of lazy fucks).

And you're here railing against the indigent, ignorant masses rather than enjoying life on some sunny beach?  Something tells me that you're stuck in some lousy apartment (been there, done that, and moved on) and blaming others for your predicament.

If one were to use the word "suck" I'd have to say that you should "suck it up" and get on with making your own life and spend less energy trying to correct all the ills of the world.  Worked for me...

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:44 | 3727474 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The loans to people with a pulse and ARM's to people with a pulse and two nickles to rub together cranking up right about now.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:48 | 3728654 Seer
Seer's picture

Kind of all goes to show how desperate the System is for "growth!"

As long as our System of choice mandates perpetual growth on a finite planet there is NO way that it will come out right.  People can BS themselves all they want about tossing out all the crooks, about making govt "small," but none of that addresses the root of the problem.  I have NO clue as to what kind of System would/could: I don't push "solutions."

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:44 | 3727478 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index Daily has turned the corner - trend is down.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-philly-housing-index-daily-breaks-...

 

Difficult to see how a housing recovery is going to happen.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:49 | 3728658 Seer
Seer's picture

Great news!  Maybe now I'll finally be able to afford a house in Philly! </sarc>

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:53 | 3727493 PesoFist
PesoFist's picture

So what happens when this Taper head-fake ends, Yellen takes over at the fed and rates go back down to sub 3% for a 30 year? I see no reason why it won't happen, please convince me I'm wrong.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 11:56 | 3728156 unununium
unununium's picture

Maybe Yellen is the head fake. Instead a Volcker figure comes back and tracks rates higher as nation is allowed to realize that milk, cherries, housing, gasoline, and little league all cost 2x what they did 6 years ago.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:52 | 3728668 Seer
Seer's picture

Problem(?) is is that it's really much more than 2x.  And with wages dropping...  And with all the resets that will/would occur...

This is a movie about a train-wreck.  There WILL be a rainwater.  The actors are mostly of no consequence (other than to distract/sooth).

Well, OK, it's NOT a movie.  Do we now feel better? </sarc>

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 22:53 | 3727494 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Maybe the explanation can be found in Phoenix and Las Vegas.  120 degree temperatures are bound to cut into home sales there.

 

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:04 | 3727508 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

in the not-so-distant future those 2 shitholes will become abandoned testaments to the folly of man.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 00:04 | 3727604 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

....or FEMA death camps.

Great place to live if you have AIR CONDITIONING!

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 00:22 | 3727653 W74
W74's picture

You put that mouth out young man!!!  Don't you know we NEED to divert the Colorado to those towns, otherwise where will people be able to play golf in January?  Florida?  Don't make me laugh.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 10:14 | 3728048 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Recent road trip had me filling up the tank just outside LV at around 2am.  The Roadside Advertising was all sex shops and Bankruptcy Lawyers, it seemed.  No shows or hotels or casinos.  Just Dildos, Lingerie and Lawyers.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 01:35 | 3727747 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

 

But it is a dry heat, like fire.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 02:34 | 3727791 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Not really the people buying here do not actually live here. They are seasonal guests as it were.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:55 | 3728675 Seer
Seer's picture

Once upon a time there were people that knew how to live there.  That knowledge/capability is far removed from today.  Reduced energy is going to be a bitch.  I don't do so well in the heat, in which case I'm faced with having to chop wood for the rest of my life...

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:00 | 3727503 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Corelogic shadow inventory report coming out next week. Let's see how the results get spinned.

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:13 | 3727516 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It is the moral thing to do...to earn money by conning greedy pigs into reits at this time.

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 15:58 | 3728679 Seer
Seer's picture

And those reits populate pension funds...

Ever have this feeling that we're all chained together on a sinking ship?

Sat, 07/06/2013 - 23:43 | 3727549 Monedas
Monedas's picture

It is not debt .... if you have no intention of paying it .... ever .... and there is no collateral  .... or other recourse for the bank .... so, I am virtually debt free !   LOL

Sun, 07/07/2013 - 16:07 | 3728704 Seer
Seer's picture

Remind me why it is that I would want to do business with you?

I do NOT believe that it was the intention of people to deliberately stop paying mortgages.  Sure, as is the case with all things measurable, there are likely a few bad apples, a small percentage who might be of such mind.

I was once someone struggling to make mortgage payments.  It's not a pleasant experience.  Timing worked out for me- it kind of forced me to make the decision to sell, at the top of the market.

This debt-based world really is a deal with the devil.  We strive for growth when it's clear that nature will ultimately curtail our growth.

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