No Hockeystick-save Here: IMF To Slash Economic Growth Forecast... Again

Tyler Durden's picture

If there is one equivalent to Goldman's FX "strategist" Tom Stolper in the macroeconomic arena when it comes to perpetually inaccurate, flawed and flat out wrong predictions about the future, it is the IMF. Previously we compiled a brief history of their consistently overoptimistic, (downward) revisionistic forecasts based on their semi-annual reports which can only be summarized as "laughable." And, sure enough, we just learned that the IMF is about to trim its unrealistic optimism some more.

From Reuters:

The International Monetary Fund may this week trim its global growth forecast because of the situation in emerging countries, IMF chief Christine Lagarde told a conference on Sunday.  


"We had a growth forecast of about 3.3 percent," Lagarde said, referring to the fund's forecast for 2013. "But I fear that considering what we are seeing now in emerging countries in particular - not developing countries and low-income countries but emerging countries - I fear that we might be slightly below that," she told an economists' conference in the southern French city of Aix-en-Provence. The IMF had cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent in April, down from its January projection of 3.5 percent.

Of course, for the IMF it is always someone's fault, in this case emerging countries being pummeled by the great Chinese deleveraging, that reality intrudes when it is least welcome, and destroys all of its carefully modelled predictions of what an Ivory Towered, Keynesian world should look like.

Visually, it means that what started off as a hockeystick forecast of 4.1% growth in April 2012, will now be cut from 3.3% to 3% of even less.

Here are some of the other IMF "predictions" that we have mocked in the past, and which are all set to be cut now that the IMF has been forced to admit no (hockey)sticksave is coming.

US: expect the US 2014 forecast growth to tumble in the next several revisions - it only took 12 months for the IMF's 2013 US GDP growth forecast to drop from 2.4% to 1.9%. Obviously, the 2013 to 2014 hockeystick is laughable at best.

China: so much for the Great Chinese growth miracle:

Euroarea: over-under on how long until Europe's 2014 growth joins 2012 and 2013 in the negative column?


Of course, all of these charts are simply a second derivative of credit creation by the sovereign - either public or private, and as such are largely meaningless. The one chart, however, that should be troubling to all is that of global trade growth, or rather, collapse. This is what we said in April:

However, one chart which deserves particular attention not because it is accurate, but because the rate of deterioration is truly troublesome, is the IMF's view on global trade volume of goods and services. It is here that one can clearly see the disastrous impact of global central bank micro-mismanagement, capital misallocation and central planning. In short: global trade is collapsing - even from the point of view of one of the staunchest macro optimists - at a rate unseen since the Great Financial Crisis, and the Great Depression before it.



It is, or should be, very concerning to the Central Planning brotherhood , that where global trade one short year ago, as per the IMF's April 2012 forecast, was supposed to grow 5.6%, they only see a token 3.6% growth. And the year is not over yet: expect further downward revisions to this key metric as the quarters go by, with the 2014 data point also revised much lower when all is said and done.


Sadly, it is the collapse in global trade that is the most direct testament to the disaster that central planning is: because why trade when one's central bank is there to step in and create the perception of artificial growth, which is not really growth, but merely the dilution of money and the latent onboarding of future runaway inflation. At this pace, quite soon trade growth will halt or even turn negative as countries retrench focused entirely on what their central banks can do for them, instead of engaging in simple economics, comparative advantage and developing their own products and services which should otherwise be competitive on the global arena.

Look for global trade to continue imploding as first currency wars, then trade wars continue to grow stronger and stronger, until in the end, the only variable is who can dilute their currency the most to boost their exports, even as all global trade is ultimately halted thanks to a few not so good Econ PhD's.

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fonzannoon's picture

I don't care whether it's 2013, 2014, 2015 or 2020. What's important to me is to know that growth is just around the corner. 

Bangin7GramRocks's picture

I'm absolutely sure this is good for gold, but I will wait for the story with charts to validate my assumption.

augustusgloop's picture

Actually true for all asset classes. Fortunes turn, look to events to validate. Eg. US equities: 10-30 year yields damn low before QE3 (for instance pimco TENZ flat between fall 2012 & spring 2013) but explanation for rocketing DJIA was quest for yield. And what is the explanation now that we have a taper? rising yield is good for stocks, shows that the economy is growing! 

QE Was good for gold, now QE bad for gold. Analysts might as well be reading sheep intestines. The MSM is just a chorus amplyfying the words of the seers. 

knukles's picture

Stop picking on the IMF and Stumbler at Goldman or whatever his name is.  These are hard working dedicated servants of the people and institutions committed to the inter-mediation of savings to capital, raising money for businesses in free and open markets.
This constant complaining and criticism is akin to rumor mongering and character defamation, the sole cause of today's economic and social malaise which if continued will lead to the Decline of Western Civilization.
You peole need to help push the bus instead of miring it down ion the mud.
You need to take on attitude of strong Russian peasant woman and put on green sticky gum mud boots and babushka, heave ho and pull both tractor and cow out of mud puddle for good of country.


Hah ha ha haha ha ha ha
Lead benefactor of NWO cutting world economic growth projections. 
Fuck else is new?
Just wake up?!?!?!?
About as effective as CNBS tinkering with prime time schedule due to declining viewership.
Fuck's wrong with these pictures?

Oh and PSS....  So where's everybody talking about this "Taper" shit?
On CNBS, etc.
Go figure

fonzannoon's picture

haha I read that. Replacing Kudlow With Carl Chinchilla. That's definitely the answer.

knukles's picture

On year for my birthday or Christmas (when I was still drinking, can't remember which) I'd asked for a Chinchilla peter heater banana hammock.
But alas, I was told go pull tractor out of mud puddle and don't come back...

Didn't improve my prime time experience, lemme tell you...
I'll just tinker with MrFunnything for a while and see what...

fonzannoon's picture

You need to know this knukles.

On at least three occasions my wife has walked into my office and looked at me squinting, a half inch away from my monitor, attempting to read your midget lettering at the end of your posts. I then giggle after reading it. Then I look over and she is standing there and says "you really are seriously weird" and walks away.

Hulk's picture

I would imagine that is what most of our wives think of us !!!

derek_vineyard's picture

after the current drop in gold she wants ZH blocked from my hard drive

GMadScientist's picture

Is that a live Chinchilla garment?

PETA will not be pleased (the Chinchilla is a toss-up).

GMadScientist's picture

All very motivating, but we can't help notice you're still sittin' in the bus. ;)

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Little Orphan Lagardie, The Musical


The growth'll come out ...


Bet your borrowed dollar that tomorrowwww ...

there'll be growth.


Just lying about ...


Gives the world more reasons to go borrowwww ...

till there's growwwwwth!


Tomorrow!  Tomorrow!

Shut up and ... go borrow,

Growth's only a day awayyyyyyy!

disabledvet's picture

"after the recession we just had in 2012." can we at least get the past right?

NoDebt's picture

The only thing more frightening than the innacuracy is that they believe their own projections. 

Bearhug Bernanke's picture

and terrorists, don't forget terrorists.

Stoploss's picture

Apparently global finance is slightly, slightly, more complicated than synchronized swimming..

DEVILDOG's picture

lagarde should just stick to showing off her fashionable scarfs and stop pretending she knows anything about global economics except for channeling all the globe's wealth to herself and the other .01% parasites.

disabledvet's picture

she could show off some personal stick saves she's had if she's feeling lacking in attention. coverage for "estimates" isn't bad of course but there is no such as a "growth estimate."

lakecity55's picture

US Taxpayers pay her salary AND she pays NO income tax as IMF Head.

But, who would want head from her?

RaceToTheBottom's picture

IMF produces the thighmaster of estimates. Never do what they should

Handful of Dust's picture



In her [wet] Dreams.

Non Passaran's picture

A bunch of useless morons.
Why countries don't quit the WB and the cocksucking International Moron Fest?

Haole's picture


IMF = holographically-induced destruction of whatever they touch, just add debt zeros.

Temporalist's picture

But...but...Latvia just joined the EZ.  Doesn't that solve everything?

Bazza McKenzie's picture

Don't know about solving "everything", but it no doubt solved a personal wealth matter for a number of Latvian politicians, bureaucrats and bankers.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

US GDP growth has not seen a 3.5% quarter in 6 years amid the most spectacular stimulus the world has ever seen.

How are stocks behaving as they have? 

Answer is two reasons: 

1) HFT and

2) The Share portion of Earnings/Share is shrinking with 0% interest loans used to buy back shares.  It creates EPS growth that is used to compute P/E.  When the loans mature, they are rolled over, still at 0%.

Truth is, Earnings are only slightly up over 6 yrs.  Divided by 6, very little.  It is EPS that is up more, and it will collapse when interest on debt rolled over starts to cost CFOs money, which has to come from earnings and will preclude any more buybacks.

Everybodys All American's picture

The manipulation of share price by company buybacks and borrowing at historical extremes is coming to an end. Companies will find it very hard to hide their business and margins collapse.

knukles's picture

Another reason is the "banks" buying stocks at the behest of those nefarious fuckers somewhere behind the scenes not to be mentioned above a whisper in private.

Like, uh, POMO, SOMO, OMO, HOMO or whateverthey'recallinghteshit today

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Lagarde: "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for some fake tanning cream today."


Even worse, the IMF is using China's overblown statistics in their equation.

smacker's picture


The IMF's economic forecasting is on a par with the BBC's weather forecasting: they're both very good at telling you what's happening today but no good at telling you what's going to happen tomorrow. ;-)

BooMushroom's picture

I swear, any minute now, something good is going to happen! Would I lie to you?

eddiebe's picture

And we can believe what the IMF tells us, right?

surf0766's picture

If you think it is true , it will be

q99x2's picture

They are psychopathic sociopaths that must be jailed before they destroy the world. Arrest them.

ISEEIT's picture

WTF exactly is the purpose of the IMF? All these 'international' organizations almost seem to be little more than parasitic 'news' generators. What constructive role do they play..

Just kidding. I'm stupid, but not that stupid.

surf0766's picture

They are a wealth transfer organization headed by NWO, marist, socialist tards

Jayda1850's picture

This is exactly why I have such a hard time believing in global warming. I am supposed to believe that the same people who think they can project gdp growth over the next 5 years, having been proven wrong time and again, think they can also predict the weather over the next 100yrs and then pass regulations that affect us all on their false assumptions.

Tinky's picture

You're conflating economists with scientists.

ISEEIT's picture

No, he's confronting cognitive dissonance.

That's when the bullshit meters go off..

It's good thing.

Tinky's picture

Presumably you imagine that Forbes is a great place to go to get the most sophisticated and balanced views on climate science. Good luck with that!

More to the point, climate science is not black and white, but it is science.

knukles's picture

In the old days, science used to be called Natural Philosophy
Which is probably a better descriptor of the noble effort


Noble, get it, noble, pun... Hah ha ha ha ha

SunRise's picture

Greyyyyy Science???  Is that a synonym for sorcery?

Bazza McKenzie's picture

Anyone who regurgitates government BS is not a scientist.  Anyone who collaborates with the UN, the most corrupt organisation on the planet, is just another crook.

pachanguero's picture

Here in Thailand where I live it's slowing down big time in real estate.
Big bust coming I think.

Hot chicks!

smacker's picture


Please let me know when I can buy a nice place in Patong at a good price :-)