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Bonds Best, Stocks Rest, And USD Depressed

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Following Friday's ugliness in bond-land, today saw the Treasury market's best day in around 13 months as UST are starting to look a lot like JGBs in terms of volatility regime - which really won't help collateral. Gold and silver also had a positive day (both up around 1.1%) as the USD leaked 0.3% lower (led by a surging AUD that recovered a lot of Friday's gap-down losses). The Nasdaq underperformed on the day (as AAPL tumbled 3% from pre-open highs) but remains in the green (just) post-FOMC while the Dow, S&P, and Trannies are all holding red post-FOMC. Discretionary and Financials are now in the green post-FOMC as Builders continue their open-high-close-low regime (now down 7% from FOMC). WTI trod water around $103. Credit markets modestly outperformed on the day but remain significantly below pre-FOMC levels as stocks have almost regained it and VIX slid back to its lowest in 6 weeks (under 15%) though slipped higher from the open today.

 

The entire treasury complex rallied aggressively today...

 

with the underperforming belly of the last few days outperforming the most today...

 

The Nasdaq is just in the green since FOMC but the rest (aside from RUT) remain modestly in the red...

 

And sectorally, financials (despite today's FDIC / BIS / Dodd-Frank news) are back above the FOMC highs (because all anyone can think about is NIM - not the MtM losses they are getting hit with) and builders once again open high and close low...

 

The outperformance of the shorts post-FOMC has been rebuffed and they have been unwound en masse back above the FOMC levels...

 

The USD dropped 0.3% (as the AUD surged)... Gold jumped and flatlined after EU close as did stocks...

 

On a side note, S&P 500 futures volume was around half that of Friday's!!

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 


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Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:25 | Link to Comment dominating
dominating's picture

The charts are looking EXACTLY like the summer of 2007... AND WHY WOULDNT THEY?? NOTHING HAS CHANGED. I expect us to get up to the highs shortly... then 5-10% correction into September then slightly new highs in Oct. Then all down hill from there. EXACTLY LIKE 2007

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

The USD is depressed about...

The. Worst. Congress. Ever.

http://youtu.be/cXokuwd7J_E

 

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

It’s official.

Jon Corzine will not be cuffed over MF Global’s improper handling of customers’ funds leading up to the commodity brokerage firm’s spectacular collapse in late 2011, The Post has learned.

Federal investigators have found no evidence that the disgraced Wall Street titan broke the law.

“After 18 months of investigation, the criminal probe into Jon Corzine is now being dropped,” a person with knowledge of the probe told The Post.

“There is no evidence of criminal wrongdoing,” this person said.

The Justice Department’s decision to drop the case is sure to come as a relief to Corzine, who has been widely blamed for MFG’s bankruptcy — as well as the misuse of some $1.6 billion in customers’ funds.

Last week, Corzine was hit with civil charges by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission in connection with the illegal tapping of the funds, which were improperly co-mingled with the MFG’s house money in the firm’s final days.

The regulator also charged Edith O’Brien, MFG’s former assistant treasurer, for carrying out the illegal transfers in a desperate bid to keep the troubled company afloat.

Both Corzine and O’Brien have denied the allegations.

Criminal investigators, including federal prosecutors and the FBI, have been probing the breach since shortly after it was uncovered with its Halloween 2011 bankruptcy.

At the time it was the eighth largest bankruptcy in US history — and the largest since Lehman Brothers went under in September 2008.

Investigators last interviewed Corzine, who has denied authorizing the transfers, in September 2012, sources said.

The criminal probe then appeared to run out of steam until a few months ago when O’Brien was granted immunity and agreed to cooperate.

Unfortunately for mad-as-hell MFG customers, many of whom are still owed money, the talks with O’Brien failed to convince the feds of any Corzine guilt.

Representatives for Manhattan US Attorney Preet Bharara’s office and the FBI declined to comment, as did a spokesman for Corzine.

The CFTC lawsuit relied on recorded telephone conversations to support their allegation that Corzine was fully aware of the transfers.

In one call, an employee told Corzine that some of the funds O’Brien transferred had not been returned, the lawsuit said. Corzine asked if O’Brien had received back “enough to be in compliance.” The employee replied, “No.”

kwhitehouse@nypost.com

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

1 day worst day ever, next day biggest turnaround ever....yea this is real sane.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

<--- The Joker is a bad central planner.

<--- The Joker is a GREAT central planner and Ben Bernanke is a cool guy.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment tbd108
tbd108's picture

Maybe the Central Planners let the bond market run on its own for a day to see what would happen? After seeing what did happen back to the same old plan?

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

Alcoa eps up 16.6% on flat revenue...have they had any share buybacks or something?

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stocks 'rest' with an 80 point up day at all-time record highs. Yea whatever rest well little hand-held buttercup equities markets...you're so precious and all.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

And with haven't-beat-a-quarter-or-made-any-money-in-two-years Amazon at all-time highs with $140b market cap on no earnings, electric novelty car company Tesla at $13b, Linkedin at triple digit earnings multiples, etc. etc.

Stocks never rest.  Treausries rolling over, stawks are the last greatest bubble ever!

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Shitty day to trade today, but you knew it would be, as it always is when there's a Bennie sighting on the horizon.  The initial 10:00 pop was easy to play, though being near new highs (like RUT) meant it would likely be faded, yet the sure-to-be-low volume meant some traders would be wary of shorting the 11:30 dip (and the Russell's 12:45 15-minute short-squeezing algo candle is so ludicrous it has to be seen to be believed as a textbook case of low-volume horse-hockey, a Viagra + 5-Hour Energy cocktail served straight, no-chaser).

I suppose the only positive about being a trader on days like these (versus standard office jobs) is that you can just quit at noon, knowing only crap remains, without clock-watching and "boss keys" needed.  I suppose we've earned the rest after the last few weeks . . . of course, there's Wednesday ...

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Aapl...

 

 

 

25-Jun-13 Reiterated Oppenheimer Outperform $480 ? $460 06-May-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $465 ? $525 24-Apr-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $560 ? $500 24-Apr-13 Reiterated Oppenheimer Outperform $550 ? $480 24-Apr-13 Reiterated FBR Capital Outperform $525 ? $500 24-Apr-13 Reiterated Deutsche Bank Buy $775 ? $480 24-Apr-13 Reiterated Canaccord Genuity Buy $600 ? $560 23-Apr-13 Reiterated FBR Capital Outperform $625 ? $525 22-Apr-13 Reiterated Monness Crespi & Hardt Buy $670 ? $520 19-Apr-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $530 ? $465 19-Apr-13 Initiated Standpoint Research Buy $480 16-Apr-13 Reiterated Stifel Buy $650 ? $600 16-Apr-13 Reiterated Mizuho Buy $575 ? $550 12-Apr-13 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $600 ? $550 26-Mar-13 Reiterated Oppenheimer Outperform $600 ? $550 13-Mar-13 Reiterated Argus Buy $775 ? $600 06-Mar-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $575 ? $530 25-Feb-13 Reiterated Needham Buy $750 ? $710 28-Jan-13 Downgrade Robert W. Baird Outperform ? Neutral $570 ? $465 24-Jan-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $650 ? $600

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=aapl

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 19:14 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Everything is consolidating, bonds, USD and stocks.  Looks tight.  All about earnings, will see if inflation has effected operational costs and/or deflation has crunched margins (commodity/gold collapsing)

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