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Exposing The Lie Behind The Nonfarm Payroll Numbers

Tyler Durden's picture


While we have already extensively deconstructed the quality components of jobs in the US, showing first that in June 240K full time jobs were lost, even as 360K part-time jobs were "gained", and second that so far in 2013 only 130K full time jobs have been added offset by 557K part-time jobs, we had sinking suspicions that there was something off with the quantity component as well: after all, at an average monthly gain of precisely 201.8K jobs in the past six months (or in 2013), this number seemed just a little too perfect considering the Fed's implicit target of generating just over 200K jobs in a half year period before it begins tapering, which in light of declining gross issuance and less monetizable instruments, has been the Fed's goal all along. Today, courtesy of the monthly JOLTS survey we got just the confirmation we needed that, indeed, the official non-farm payroll number as per the Establishment Survey has been substantially off to the tune of a whopping 40% above what is quantitatively happening in reality.

The JOLTS, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, gets little respect for the main reason that it is one month delayed. Indeed, moments ago it just reported data referencing the month of May. Considering last week we got June's NFP data, this is largely irrelevant. Furthermore, since most people simply look at the survey for the simple "Job Openings" update and compare it to estimates, it provides little actionable data to the HFTs and algos that are all that's left of market traders these days.

However, what also hides inside the JOLTS survey are two other data sets: Hires and Separations. As the name implies, these show how many new hires and how many workers left (either quit or were terminated) businesses. The delta between the Hires and the Separations foots with the actual reported number of job additions, which intuitively makes sense - the net number of added jobs per month is the Hires over the Separations. No rocket surgery there.

So how does the chart look when comparing NFP monthly data with JOLTS Hires less Separations?

Presenting exhibit A: 13 years of JOLTS vs NFP data.

What becomes obvious when looking at the highlighted area, is that something is very much afoot in BLS-land.

Consider April: according to JOLTS, there were 108K job additions. According to the NFP data, however, the number was 195K in new jobs created.

Or how about May? According to JOLTS, in May 118K jobs were added. Once again, just about 90% off the NFP reported 195K.

And so on. In fact, if one looks at the data for all of 2013, one can see that JOLTS averages some 145,200 workers, while the Establishment Survey data shows average monthly gains of 201,833.

Or just about a 39% difference!

The chart below shows how through May (because remember, it is delayed by a month) JOLTS indicated only 726K new jobs created, while the NFP report indicated over 1 million, or 1,016,000 new jobs to be specific.

Finally, looking at a simple moving average, the "bullish bias" difference to NFP reported data is now only as big as it was just after the Lehman failure!

There is now a 69K trailing three month average benefit to NFP compared to what JOLTS is implying!

In other words, the headline (and algo moving) NFP data is overblown by some 40% cumulatively when looking at 2013 data. It also means that for the NFP discrepancy to be fixed, there has to be one month where there is a 290,000 job decline according to the Establishment Survey.

We urge all readers to recreate the above result on their own: the Hires timeseries can be found here, the Separations timeseries is here, while the matching reported Nonfarm Payroll series is, as always, here.

We hope that, if nothing else, this above is a lesson to the BLS: when manipulating data series across dimensions, make sure the manipulations foot across, not just in 1 dimension!


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Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Cacete de Ouro
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Prepare to be droned by a Prince Hall 33rd Degree Freemason!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:12 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

More Bullshit FED To The SHEEPLE ...

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment clones2
clones2's picture

"LIE" is such a strong word... Maybe they're just not good at math or counting...

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

make america competitive

- reduce the number of employed persons

- reduce the income of employed persons

- devalue the currency

- staurate households with debt

so *now* who's going to pay for those stinking imports? huh?

that's right.


and that's how we make america competitive

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Feudalism via SkyNet

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:17 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Rest assured that this information will NOT be reported on tonight's Kudlow Report.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

They gotta be pretty desperate to start this shit the year BEFORE and election year.  Normally this sort of monkey business only ramps this far up 6-9 months prior to the election.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:35 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Total BS 24/7.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 21:01 | Link to Comment fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture


The Great Reset must truly be right around the corner.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:36 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Seriously..., you think the government would actually lie...

Oh..., wait

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You make that sound so black and white.  It's not a matter of lie vs. truth.  It's a question of  the intesity and breadth of the lying.  This is pretty big for a non-election year.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 19:42 | Link to Comment creepy_ass_cracker
creepy_ass_cracker's picture

Actually at this point I fear that if they were to actually tell us the truth concerning the state of the national economy we would most likely go immediately into a deep state of depression followed by a high number of suicides.  Who would pay the taxes then? So it is in TPTB best interrest to keep telling lies, fuck the sheeple.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:24 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

And when the banksters get desperate they will start a war (make plenty of money off it) and start taking from accounts (Like their criminal icon Jon Corzine).


"The best way to rob a bank is to own one."

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment RazvanM
RazvanM's picture

Funny how this was the medicine recommended to 3rd world countries to become competitive. Wait a minute, this wasn't correct?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Well, if it was just an error, then the last time a screw-up of this magnitude occurred was when Fred Flintstone’s caterer sent the clown with the Rock Cola to the Water Buffalo Lodge, while the dancing girls and cactus juice appeared at the kids’ party.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:46 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

The government secretly spies on us. The government secretly hides details of the Bin Laden raid. The government secretly fudges all of its books. Notice the pattern?

In short, this government hides facts and lies to its citizens on a daily basis. When people hear the term "banana republic," they picture certain things, like dictators in snazzy faux-military uniforms. I'd argue the defining characteristic of all banana republics is a paranoid devotion to hiding the truth from ordinary citizens. Power is derived not just through force but also through muddying the waters. Transparency is required for a functioning, stable society; an obsession with secrecy is required for a republic to reach banana status.

The bananopacity of our republic has never been higher.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

+1. for 'Bananopacity'.
Let's start a Bananopacity Index (BI). ;-)
Linear or log scale?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Linear or log scale?

How about "Cosmic" ?  Parsecs anyone ?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

"Everything the state says is a lie, and everything it has it has stolen." — Frederich Nietzsche

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:05 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Sort of like your deposits are FDIC insured....sure they are...better to consider your deposits an at-risk loan to a shylock.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:24 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I join Minnesotans For Global Warming in calling for CO2 levels consistent with bananas growing in the southern states of our banana republic.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:51 | Link to Comment spine001
spine001's picture

BLS any Snowden at the BLS?

And I hope that they never learn to do multidimensional data manipulation!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:44 | Link to Comment GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Is Obama a Prince Hall Mason?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Clearly he can be anything they want him to be.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Creating low wage jobs = bull market

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:21 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Creating desparate people who will turn to a thriving black/tax-free market for survival, even better.  fucking bring it!!!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its coming, but there will be little in the way of long-distance black market trade.  Long distances mean more chances for you to be extorted by various ex-Military, ex-LEO, "pay the toll to pass".  Most likely they take 10% of your goods as payment, duties, except now you pay duties within the nation!

see France in the 18th century, Angola in the 21st century

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:31 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sorry, I don't see a thriving local economy as something bad.  Fucking bring it.  Shit, many of the folks in our farming Co-op are ex-military.

The bottom line is folks are tired of the paper-pushers and their bullshit paper promises.  we know the value of our labor and have plenty of room for useless paper-pushers to work as our sharecroppers if they want to eat.  Bring it bitches...

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:42 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Does anyone here believe that the BOL or the Fed has any interest at all in truth or reality when their very existence is tied to perpetuating and propagating the lie that intrinsic value is something that can be printed at will?  Of course it's all a bunch of lies, and it always will be, because that's what fiat economies are based on; a lie.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


see France in the 18th century, Angola in the 21st century

Or China and Russia today

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:21 | Link to Comment GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

And I have just the currency for such a, silver, lead, and lead delivery systems.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

I am sure this is just an honest mistake and the BLS will correct it next month....Or Not.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

This is probably why they have that yearly -600k revision to the series.

Paging Joe Lasagna, time to get your ass on CNBC and tell us all why we need to buy Doucebank stock.


Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:57 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Joe knows banking. He was at Lehman Bros for crissakes! [/very high forehead]

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:28 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

db is effing doomed!


See the little maggot with the earpiece and the makeup
Yeah buddy that's his own hair
That little maggot got his own jet airplane
That little maggot he's a millionaire


[/money 4 nothing]

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:49 | Link to Comment SDShack
SDShack's picture

Yep, I love how "stable" the employment picture from the BLS is the last 3 months... 199, 195, 195. Look how that DOESN'T correspond to history, which shows employment widely swinging from one month to the other (90K jobs in a one month swing example). I wonder what the statistical odds are for this recent "stable" period compared to the historical. Definitely looks like an "Out-liar". 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:10 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Over the last 22 years we have not had two consecutive months that showed numbers within 4k.  

Suddenly we have three in a row?

You have nailed it.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I've a profits/jobs model that displayed a correlation of .91 for a period of 15 years or so.

Then suddenly, over the last year and 1/2, a complete disconnect.

I began to think that it ws due to the QE effects ,as that $85 billion injected each month ws like $85 billion of profits that had not been earned spread to certain sectors.  That would explain why profits have fallen so sharply and hiring has not done what I would normally expect.

The only thing I know for certain is that the numbers do not make any sense.

To claim that hiring is suddenly ramping up while profits and margins are at their lowest levels if 4 years is nonsense.

Welfare claims also point to the nonsense of a stregthening jobs environment.

My model pointed to no net new jobs for the period 9/12-9/13.

Something is drastically amiss.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Charles Biderman, is that you?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Just saw his picture...God I hope that is not me.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:38 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

well sadly i'd have to take that trade.   and i could live with that view from sausalito...

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:42 | Link to Comment worbsid
worbsid's picture

The number of used-to-be-full-time-employed replaced by automation is hugh.  A couple years back three full timers in our office were replaced by a computer and a good program.  How many digital spot welders are there?  On and on.  In addition to all the other crap going on, we are being replaced by computers.  A few days ago, the TV went off line.  I called and a computer answered.  The computer and I went through the trouble shooting maze and the computer re-booted my line and the TV worked.  I said, "thank you" ... Afterward I laughed about that, I said thank you to a computer. I programed the damned things and now I am saying "thank you" to an algorythm somewhere in a cloud.  Bryond belief?  No not really. 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Kurt Vonnegut - Player Piano

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment FlipFlop
FlipFlop's picture

This is not about the topic, but about general impact of alternative news such as ZH.

It seems that reporting in ms papers has improved, reporting in some papers reflects pretty closely ideas presented in ZH. I might be wrong since this is just an feeling based observation.

Anyway, alternatives force establishment to think harder, which is good.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

I don't read MSM any more, and won't be going back.  How exactly are you supposed to regain credibility when its clear you have allowed your media empire to be used for disinformation dissemination?

Probably just a final attempt to stay relevant.  I doubt it means they are no longer disinfo agents of the Empire.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:49 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Become familiar with the term "acceptable level of dissent."  That's all you're seeing.  They're just driving a stake in the ground to declare that they are still relevant and can give a small amount of push-back. 

Even the tools in the MSM can see there are obvous areas where things don't add up.  And if they can't for themselves they only need to visit ZH and see many of the themes show up in similar stories over and over again.  By the time you read about "rehypothecation" or "HFT trading" or "collateral quality" for the 5th, 10th, 20th or 50th time..... well, even really stupid people (like me) will eventually clue in that it's not tinfoil-hat conspiracy stuff, it's based in fact. 

The difference is that the MSM has no belief there is anything deeply wrong.  2008 was a blip that is now past and can never happen again (despite nothing having been fixed or learned from it).  Everything is fine, it's just a few "untidy" areas they shine their little flashlight on from time to time.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:07 | Link to Comment FlipFlop
FlipFlop's picture

This is a good reply. I am referrimg to my local papers. Sometimes they have almost thensame stories as ZH. Not everyday but occasionally. That sort of news coverage is surprising.

I cancelled all MS papers long ago as useless socialist bullshit, but there has been a change lately.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment sunny
sunny's picture

Of course it's all lies.  So what?  It only matters that the moment the news release hits the wires the algos have something to analyze.  A word stream that indicates improved numbers, no matter how false or obtuse is all that matters.  Markets soar.  Welcome to the new abnormal.


Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

The corruption is eroding all standards.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Hmmm....well...lookee here......I just found the Devil.

He really IS in the details.

Good Sleuthing Tyler !

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:57 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

And we look down on countries like Egypt!

Clowns are coming for us! (wait for a clear shot)

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:57 | Link to Comment worbsid
worbsid's picture

During the depression we had people in visable soup lines but now we have many many more in invisable soup lines.  The .gov did away with food stamps because they were embarasing and now a SNAP card looks like a credit card and is handled about the same way. 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:22 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Stop printing money and let's see what this economy is really all about.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

As long as the FED prints $80B+/mo, these number mean very little.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

It's all art!

I wonder how many People realize that the primary indicator of "recovery" in the economy (at least the Fed believes We believe it's an indicator), the stock market, has become akin to fine art (no real value); i.e., something that only the wealthy own; something they trade back and forth between them.

And this piece is entitled: S&P 500, by The Bernank

And the workers just dug this beautiful piece out of a hole in D.C. It's called The Non-Farm-Payroll Farm, by Obama

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Hmm, not to worry. The US will soon adopt Israel's Biometric ID Pilot program for its own National ID card. "No job w/o bioCard"

Making the techno-fascist Kadim party richer and more powerful (from the Knesset shadows), and us less free. Paving way for 666.
/But it's all For The Greater Good, no doubt./s

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

These are dangerous times to be exposing government practices.  Must Obama invoke the espionage act again and go for 3x more than all other US President's combined?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

welcome to the new economic world: Where Insanity IS Reality

Nothing but lies...

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:49 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

This has to be the third or fourth structural set of data points and charts in the past three months that indicate "not since 2008" or "not since the Lehman collapse".

This one, the GOFO (Gold Forward Offered rate) chart, Margin Debt, Consumer Debt, increase in housing prices in "hot" markets; combined with the fastest rise in bond rates since 1962.

With so many one-dimensional thinkers the BLS snowjob is easy.

Add to that the desire of the delusional to believe what they want to believe, and facts are inconvenient.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:46 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

When the student gets to grade his own homework, what do you think he's going to get?  An "F"? 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:46 | Link to Comment EU victum
EU victum's picture

The Neo DDR (EU) has the same tactics, major bullshit, endless peptalk, twisted numbers and finally a shit load of crap, I am sure this is going to end ugly, I have come to the stage that I don't believe any 'produced' numbers anymore from these criminals, and this includes the complete clan, bankers, Bendraghi, IMF, OESO, ´undependent´ economists, indez analists, USSA, EU, in my view all corrupt Romans.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:48 | Link to Comment fpdguy
fpdguy's picture

At one of the major bus companies in Los Angeles, full-time workers (40+ hrs/week) were reduced to no-more than 34-hours a week.  They still qualified as full-time under this, but this allowed the company to add a new "full-time" employee for every 6 current employee's without adding any cost.  This move gave them access to Federal funds for "creating jobs" even though no new work or additional hours had been created.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:01 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Quick! Raise the hourly wages with the 'extra' dough.



Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:05 | Link to Comment worbsid
worbsid's picture

Next step is to cut the hours < 28 to avoid Obamacare but that has been delayed a year so the scam can continue.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:50 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

awesome counter hype from the MSM : Rosenberg: Jobs Is A Game Changer - Business Insider

and this from same guy : Rosenberg: Deleveraging Is Dead - Business Insider


This is as bullish as a bull run in Pamplona! : Photo From The San Fermin Bull Run In Pamplona - Business Insider


Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:51 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

"first the sentence and then the evidence..." said the Red Queen

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:06 | Link to Comment EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

I think some scumbag said "When it becomes serious you have to lie"

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:08 | Link to Comment kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

There is no free market for labor, within the empire. Surprise, surprise.

"you will not be able to buy or sell" without intermediary taxation, compliance.

So, what's new?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Skin666
Skin666's picture



TPTB must be shit scared of something to lie this blatantly...


Kudos yet again Tyler(s)



Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

This can't be true! CNBS informed me recovery will be as strong as Popeye subsidizing his spinach to get a more nourishing green shoots meal. All endorsements come directly from NYC Mayor Bloomberg.

Big Money

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:15 | Link to Comment beavertails
beavertails's picture

We attribute the number discrepancies to the "FOG OF STATISTICS", cause "Math is tough!" right Barbie?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:21 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture


Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Excellent research Tyler.

The methods of the old commies in the USSR are being used for the past 4 years in the USA. Mission accomplished by the Alinsky disciples.

Where does this end? The damage done over the past 4 or so years to the very core of societal / cultural trust in the US will not be reveresed for many years. Mission accomplished Alinskyites. 

Now how should the Alinskyites be paid back for such an accomplishment?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

They should be payed back in lead.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment sgorem
sgorem's picture

simply put, ANYTHING the U.S. Government says, does, rumors, calls, faxes, telegraphs, emails, elicits, charts, forcasts, writes, types, prints, mails, eludes to, backs, demands, "gives" you, votes on, gets another fucking commission to investigate, pictures, shows, tells, or communicates through a fucking jungle drum, or smoke signals, IS A LIE!.........please feel free to add anything i missed...............................

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment shankster
shankster's picture

The government lies?? Oh no! Say it isn't so!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment hmmmstrange
hmmmstrange's picture

I found a nickel on the ground today. According to BLS I now have a job!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:13 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Oh man, best post in forever.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

Did he pay taxes on it though?  Outlaw!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 23:21 | Link to Comment kw2012
kw2012's picture

Damn, now I have to pay your earned income tax credit too

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:42 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

And just yesterday Kudlow and Joe Bologna of Deutschbank were saying ZeroHedge "wasn't using all the data".

No boys, the data is there, your book does not allow you to talk about reality, only desired perception propaganda!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:13 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

They actually mentioned ZH??

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:48 | Link to Comment BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

I for one am shocked that the Obowel Movement would be lying to America.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:58 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

I am amazed that denial and counter propaganda have now become such a brazen art in a country/society supposed to be open and obsessed with facts; where statistics have been honed into becoming weapons of mass manipulation; on both sides of the pond.

Awesome. From the Admin machine, to the WS machine, to the MSM machine, to Madison avenue, to the very heart of academia; all pumping the party line of oligarchy. 

Illusion is reality and dogma is fact. 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:02 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture



Tue, 07/09/2013 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

Ignore that man behind the curtain!

Why do I have the feeling that the JOLTS hires-separations is going to JOLT upward to 200K in the next report?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:11 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

why do i get the feeling the Jolts computer system is going to be cyberattacked

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:26 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

More gotcha related to the more broader issue - government data is suspect at best.


Every institution that the masses feel has integrity has none left - all is being spent to keep these markets up.


Why?  Because government knows that social moods tanks - no hopey changey - when markets tank.


Can't forget the MSM - they're part of the "pump machine" too.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment lovejoy
lovejoy's picture

FYI ... Jolts doesn't include temp help, leasing companies, returning strikers and many other things.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I have no doubt at all the BLS is fudging the numbers by at least 33%.  But consider for a moment if ALL the numbers from both government and public corporations are likewise fudged by this degree.

What would be the result if this were suddenly, irrefutably revealed?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 16:17 | Link to Comment conspicio
conspicio's picture

And the 14th Comissioner of the BLS is?

Erica Groshen. Work history includes:

  • Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Vice President in the Research and Statistics Group - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Vice President of microeconomic and regional studies - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Visiting Economist at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland

Money quote: "...we must provide the best data possible, so people can make better-informed decisions. At BLS, our data should always meet the following criteria: accurate, objective, relevant, timely, and accessible."

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 17:03 | Link to Comment optionsman
optionsman's picture

this is one of those things that you wish werent true despite knowing it is true. i think the establishment has lost so much credibility at this point that it is a bit of a miracle that the entire system is not Egyptized.....yet.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 18:55 | Link to Comment GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

If a government body produces a set of figures, sure you can bring numbers forward or push them back by one set. It is then revealed in the following set and the polticial excuse is oh we made a mistake.


A whole different issue if you persistantly produce figures and never show the corrective action. It also leaves you with a big problem on how do you ever explain it away if it never recover?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 00:17 | Link to Comment pfairley
pfairley's picture

I rated this a 4. The opening paragraphs were garrulous, needlessly complex and tedious,.. closing paragraphs redundant.

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