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Preparing For Bernanke’s Speech With A Short “Who Said It?” Quiz
Submitted by F.F.Wiley of Cyniconomics
Preparing For Bernanke’s Speech With A Short “Who Said It?” Quiz
In case you missed the late announcement, Ben Bernanke is scheduled to deliver a speech on Wednesday afternoon, covering the Federal Reserve Bank’s track record through its 100 year history.
Presumably, he’ll also spend time defending current policies, in both prepared remarks and the question-and-answer session to follow.
In advance of what could be a market-moving talk, it seems appropriate to consider what’s been said in the past about the Fed’s policy record. I suggest seeing if you can name the source of each of the following excerpts:
Excerpt 1:
The problem for the Federal Reserve System and other factors which influence credit is not one of preserving money rates at a uniform level, but of exerting an influence so that rates may be adapted to the economic swing of business. High money rates at times of overstimulation and low money rates at times of understimulation should, in the long run, assist in flattening out the fluctuations of business and bringing about a more even prosperity. There is no convincing proof that the Reserve System has reduced the fluctuations of the business cycle, but its influence has been in that direction. (The emphasis is mine.)
Excerpt 2:
Whether the dominant cause of the Great Moderation is structural change, improved monetary policy, or simply good luck is an important question about which no consensus has yet formed. I have argued today that improved monetary policy has likely made an important contribution not only to the reduced volatility of inflation … but to the reduced volatility of output as well. … This conclusion on my part makes me optimistic for the future… (Again, the emphasis is mine.)
Scroll down for answers.
Answers
- This is from a book published in 1929 by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and titled Recent Economic Changes in the United States, Report of the Committee on Recent Economic Changes of the President’s Conference on Unemployment. The authors were O.M.W. Sprague and W. Randolph Burgess.
- This is from Ben Bernanke’s memorable 2004 speech on the “Great Moderation.”
100 years of overconfidence?
From the first excerpt, we see that overconfidence in the Fed extends as far back as the 1920s, which is when the central bank first attempted countercyclical policies to smooth out the business cycle. We all know how that turned out.
The second excerpt tells us that overconfidence is as strong as ever. Or at least it was in 2004, but central bankers haven’t exactly become less assertive since then, have they?
The 2004 “Great Moderation” speech may be the best evidence you’ll find that central bankers can really mess things up. It combines a total rejection of policymaking in the 1960s and 1970s with an analysis of the next two decades that we now know was no less foolish than the ’60s and ’70s policies.
So, before taking in the confidence that Bernanke will surely project on Wednesday, it’s worth considering the misguided conclusions of days past – from the 1920s to recent times.
One more link
It wouldn’t hurt to also check in with one guy who actually excelled as Fed Chairman (with apologies to William McChesney Martin, who did very well in the 1950s). Click here for Paul Volcker’s thoughts on ideas entertained by central bankers today.
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Will he be taking questions? Jizzbag LIESman is probably warming up his cocksucker
Have these students who questioned the NSA, question Ben: https://soundcloud.com/madiha-1/students-question-the-nsa-at
Is there a Q&A? I want to watch the Bernank squirm and stutter before running out of the room with his tail between his legs.
Bernanke Speech, 7/10/13, abridged version, early release:
Major Talking Points:
1. The Fed came into being, to prevent panics in the market as happened in 1907.
2. Another purpose was to maintain a 2% rate of inflation, in line with growth expectations.
3. Our data has shown that we have done a GOOD job.....a GOOOOD job.
4. The best thing Americans can do to support their country, is to buy Stawks.
5. Please buy Stawks, and bonds.
6. Pay NO Attention to the Barbaric Relic.
7. Pay no attention to the shameless, profiteering hucksters that encourage ownership of the barbaric relic.
Answers to Questions:
1. We may taper, but maybe we won't.
2. We have done a GOOD job.....a GOOOOD job.
The speech will be put into a time capsule. 200 years from now it will be opened and it will be surrounded by dust and insect carcasses. The scientists of the day will throw away the speech and study the insects.
PM smackdown in the cards. Thank you.
OH goodie! Time for another round of the 'good Fed/bad Fed' routine again! So OK after Ben speaks DOW drops -300, then Hilsenrath comes out and says 'LOL WUT? NO you guys got us ALL WRONG Ben didn't actually say what he just said, and furthermoar you misunderstood it! See, Ben was speaking in 'Elite-speak' that's OUR special language only we can understand silly non-elites! JUST leave it to us, we got this shit!
It's all good - we need some more pics for the "Bernanks Foto Kaption Kontest".
Their strategy is for 1 negative headline (Bernank says taper) to spawn 10 positive headlines (Yellen, Kocker, Stein, Evans, HillsenRAT, etc to say NO GUYS, YOU MISUNDERSTOOD the Bernank) for the algos to pump this market higher.
Funny thing is, the market is already discounting Bernanke's comments as JUNK since that J-Bag wont even be at J-Hole meeting. Yet, the markets AINT discounting a sequester, middle east stability, shitty earnings, oil price over 100, yields rising, fuckin shitty weather, riots all over the world....
He speaks but never says anything.
Perhaps Ben can write some new I Ching verses in his spare time.
This time I bet he just sticks to the Goldilocks buzz words....just sees 'moderate' this and that, nothing cooling or warming much because they're damned if they do damned if they don't, so this one will just be egghead academic bullshit for now.
Gee, if anyone knew exactly what and when they were going to say they could make quite a bit of profit in one day.
He'll lie! That's all you need to know!
The Fed's record is NOT a good one! No Fed Chair would willingly speak about the Fed's awful record unless he were going to lie!
Your opinion of the Fed's record probably depends on who exactly you are, and whether or not you're a PD or TBTF.
I'll drink one to the Bernanks posthumous economic speech.
Liesman: "Mr. Chairman"
Bernanke: "Yes Steve"
Liesman: "Did I leave my ball gag at your place last night"
Bernanke: "Check with Krugman, I think he picked it up for you."
His words alone introduce more volatility than than 100 bps revision to GDP growth (or lack thereof).
I really think they should all shut the fuck up and run their stupid policies "black box" style. Zero communication with the outside world. Yes, the illegally well-connected will still get their "special" phone calls and emails in plenty of time to place their bets. I would never stand in the way of that inevitability, but at least we could stop all this market insanity that happens every time one of them opens his mouth.
In all honesty, tell me what this heightened level of "transparency" under Bernanke has availed us? Go on. I'll wait.
There is no situation so bad that the State cannot make it worse.
What gives anyone the idea we can't believe the Fed? Behold the Great and Powerful Oz!
Fed Forecasts No Recession in 2008
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/forecasts_trends/archive/2007/11/2...
http://articles.latimes.com/2007/dec/06/business/fi-econ6
Hint: They're all colluding and lying since 1913!!!1!one
This is made possible by the FED. Look what Bennie's work accomplishes:
http://www.thewolfofwallstreet.com/
So will he say "taper" or drop another hint of that? PMs and bonds will dip again.
Watch, backtracking of tapering. Rally time again.
To provide the necessary dynamic the FOMC has decided to induce a state of equilibrium by injecting more stimulus while continuing to taper. By this method, it is thought that inflation will be contained (at the target) to the Equity Markets. Gas, Food, and the Circus will be free.
Just my luck- I HATE Clowns.
Perhaps a similar quiz could be constructed for Ben to match recent comments of his Fed buddies.
3 (1913) vintage pennies carried the same purchasing power as 1 bennybuck today.
The damage is obvious. No speech needed. It's just another excuse for a PM raid.
Hang onto your drawers, here it comes.
Seems to me the June FOMC minutes (also released tomorrow) must have alot of pro tapering talk. Bernanke, therefore, had to schedule the meeting to keep 10-yr treasury from going ballistic again.
Expect bad cop (FOMC minutes) vs good cop (Bernanke talking down tapering) leading investors more confused than ever. I still say no actual tapering will be done until a Japanese or Euro countryt collapse is immenent.
Bernank’s Boeing 777 flight that was loaded with goodies ignored the ‘retard warning’. Ben’s good ship lollypop clipped off his airship tail and cartwheeled onto the Navy carrier. Secret stimulus programs went up in flames. NTSB officials state, “ It will take years to determine the Federal Reserve’s Tapering program details. “
1913 - 2013: 100 years of unselfishly serving the 1%, 100% of the time....
Q.) "Mr. Bernanke - if the FED uses taxpayer money to benefit Banks as a quasi governmental money changing operation how are they not the ultimate usurer - and would not Jesus flip the Marriner-Eccles building over?"
A.) "Render unto Caesar, Christian".
Have seen anyone else say it yet.....
FUCK YOU BERNAKE!!!!
Mr. Bernank: Since the Fed is not an actual government agency, and never has been, and is really a private bank owned by an off-shore international banking mafia, could you please explain why American citizens have to pay any taxes what-so-ever to you douchebags when you just press Ctrl-P on the keyboard and bring trillions of dollars into existence out of thin air?
Hmmm? What did you mumble? Sounded like "tradition"? LOL It's more like mafia thug highway robbery ponzi!
Fuck you Bernanke!