Tuesday Humor: Charting The Progression Of IMF Growth "Forecasts"

Tyler Durden's picture

As reported over the weekend, when the IMF leaked Christine Lagarde has taken some time away from her busy tanning booth schedule to revise her outlook on global growth, the most recent revision of IMF projections would hit some time this week. It just did. And while the fund's 2013 global outlook came in as expected, or down from 3.3% to 3.1%, we now have the full breakdown of the IMF's crystal ball predictions broken down by region.

But wait, there's more.  We also went back in time and compared the current, July, World Economic Outlook projection, with the IMF's previous ones going back to the beginning of 2012. We have compiled the resultant hilarious data showing the IMF's utter cluelessness about the future in the charts below. All we can say is one hasn't seen a hockeystick, until one see the IMF's latest progression from 2013 to 2014 growth and shown below.

Here are the IMF's latest, and prior, forecasts presented without commentary. None is needed.

World growth:


US growth:


Euroarea growth, or lack thereof:


China growth:


And the all important, or none at all in a centrally-planned, nominally devaluing world, chart of world trade:


And now, we look forward to the next downward revision in global "growth."

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Temporalist's picture

It's like the Miracle On Ice!

Againstthelie's picture

The Money As Debt Ponzi cannot afford no miracles.

daxtonbrown's picture

I for one am encouraged by the upward trending colored lines.

The trend is your friend!

SunRise's picture

and the black downward trending China line?

kralizec's picture

All them charts look like a Neo-Keynesian's hand grabbing for my balls!

Let go my &%$#ing junk! 

I am more equal than others's picture

Current revisions looks like a beggar's cup.  IMF is begging the world ...'please buy, buy......'

ZippyBananaPants's picture

Looks like what happens to a man before he starts on the viagra

Cult of PersonALity's picture

It keeps shifting DOWN an OUT  ....  kinda' like y'all 

/sarc off  (as I am in character_

Doomer's picture

One of these days, Christine, TO THE MOON!

Bunga Bunga's picture

Me thunk

the Bernank

is the Viagra

for the USA.

101 years and counting's picture

only wrong 100% of the time.  Bernanke will fit right in next Jan.

angel_of_joy's picture

They are only wrong in the P (projected) side of the graph.

That's only 50%...

youngman's picture

Its a great job if you can get one...never held accountable for anything wrong.....just put out a number...i could do that on a bar napkin...in one minute....how many millions would they pay me for that?????

Colonel Klink's picture

Difference is Christine Legard does it on a feminine napkin.  Can you do that?

Croesus's picture

@ Youngman:

Banksters have an even worse track record than meteorologists....but at least the weather girl doesn't cause social upheavals, mass starvations, and revolutions.

mickeyman's picture

Sometimes it does. But not as often as bankers.

freewolf7's picture

Revisions of World Growth =

...wait for it...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Since the IMF determines how they measure "growth" I fully expect that there will be "growth".

Colonel Klink's picture

Growth, you mean like that thing that happens right before you're about to get financially raped but it's not your growth?  That kind of growth?

prains's picture

control the medium you control the message; chapter and verse


the funny thing is there's probably a dude/dudette in the back office drawing up the "real" forcast and it shows all the lines falling off the page and boss lady takes her big fat marker and goes "nope, lets do this"

and bombs a big sloppy upstroke on each chart, eyes it up like an artisite and sends it to print. It's fucking disneyland 

Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Looks like my blood pressure readings.

ThirdWorldDude's picture

An artistic interpretation of IMF's World Growth chart: a punch-bowl filled with central banker's hope.

gaoptimize's picture

Aren't they embarassed by this?  Being wrong once or twice is par for the course, but this is just ridiculous and shameful.  It is also incompetance if done by a professional analyst.  An analysis of the residuals of their projections vs. reality would show that there will never be any growth again over the time period covered by their projections.

Now, having said that, don't ask me for the charts of my projections of the price of silver vs. reality over the same time period.

DeadFred's picture

Embarassment and shame require a conscience, which is the first host neural pathway suppressed after the introduction of the reptilian symbiont. I know it is no longer Roswell Day but I still had to share that.

NoDebt's picture

Yeah, they look dismal but they consistently have that big hockey-stick at the end.  So we're obviously bound to have bigtime growth "right around the corner".  Everything's cool.


SheepDog-One's picture

AH yes....so the IMF takes any 'down trend line' and just fixes that by applying a right-angle UPward line to it! VOILA!

They're like the Jamaican guy on the commercial who turns that frown da other way 'roun!

Atomizer's picture

Growth can only artificially expand on newfangled involuntary debt borrowing or by repackaging debt obligations for longer term servicing at higher interest rate. Either or, the 2% marker must always be met to substantiate the measure of GDP.

smacker's picture


At least the world growth morphing revisions from V to U weren't done in one quarter. That might have scared the horses.

Agent P's picture

At least they're consistently wrong.

TheEdelman's picture

Been awhile since a submission actually made me lol.   Thanks Ty

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Off topic sort of but more Tuesday humor concerning the dysfunctional TLC reality clown show that is NY politics.



The day after former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer announced his campaign for city comptroller, he was issued a direct challenge for the post by a woman who says she was the madam who supplied him with escorts.
Self-described "ex-madam" Kristin Davis used Spitzer's campaign to once again announce her already-declared candidacy for comptroller on Monday.

"Eliot Spitzer broke state and federal laws in his use of prostitutes and paid no penalty; I broke the law and paid my debt to society," Davis, who served four months in prison, said in a statement. "There cannot be two standards of justice, one for the average citizen and another for the political and social elite."

Spitzer, a Democrat, resigned as governor in 2008 amidst a scandal surrounding his use of prostitutes.

Spitzer: 'You need skin as thick as a rhinoceros'

Davis, a former hedge fund senior vice president, first filed with the city campaign finance board in September of 2012 to run for city-wide office. The exact post she was seeking was not specified at the time. She filed to run specifically for comptroller in June, according to the board. Her campaign now needs at least 3,750 signatures to qualify for the ballot.

This is not Davis' first go at public office, nor her first time using the title of "Elliot Spitzer's madam" in her campaign. She ran as a protest candidate for New York governor in 2010.

Self-avowed madam who claims Spitzer ties is running for NY governor

Now running as a Libertarian with a plan to legalize marijuana in New York City, Davis first announced her campaign in April. She did so in a release challenging the other major candidate for city comptroller, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.

"I have more financial management experience than either Eliot Spitzer or Scott Stringer," Davis said in her statement Monday. "They are both career politicians looking to use the office of Comptroller as a stepping stone to higher office."



Sad thing is Davis is probably the most qualified to work as a comptroller and libertarian party yet again either showing true out of the box thinking or why they will never be considered a serious political party by running yahoos and not taking the time to do the public sell process to the general public (and yes you can explain your positions without sacrficing your principles as long as you stay consistent and even to your ideals and message).


Bunga Bunga's picture

He ist just testing the grounds for Corzine's run.

Youri Carma's picture

Reminds me of Climategate’s Hocky Stick Chart – Hide the Decline http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc

Itch's picture

They have to spin this bullshit by default, its not even funny, look what would happen if they didn't. Im only saying this because there's not a snowballs chance in hell they actually believe it, seriously, they couldn't. They either employ patsies or 10 year old children to make it up, or maybe they just have a bullshit variable resistor attached to a spreadsheet which they crank up to the max every time they need some nonsense. brrrr.

Winston Smith 2009's picture

Monty Python's skit related to IMF projection accuracy:


Curt W's picture

The problem with the IMF and the CBO Is that they believe from this point on...


There never will be another recession

shovelhead's picture

* (IMF Projection models powered by unicorn farts.)

mickeyman's picture

It's the gradual decline of wishful thinking. Things will get better once they give up and project global decline.

Clever Name's picture

This wouldve been a little more helpful with an overlay of actual 'growth' (*cough*), but since its all BS anyway whats the difference?

What exactly is going to cause the upward shift thats oddly enough supposed to start...now, hmm? Wait, I sense a shift already! I just spent the quarter I found on the street in a gumball machine!