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FOMC Minutes Preview
From 'Tapering' to concluding asset-purchases, and from rate-hike-expectations to exit strategies (and what other indicators may be worth watching), BofAML previews the all-important release of the FOMC's last meeting minutes.
Via BofAML,
The release of the minutes from the June 18-19 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-making arm, is likely to garner attention in the markets. Investors will be looking for indications of how soon the Fed will start to taper QE3, how quickly they will conclude asset purchases altogether, and when the first interest rate hike is likely to begin. We expect much discussion on the first point, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was “deputized” by the Committee to discuss a 7% unemployment rate as “indicative” of a “substantial improvement” in labor market conditions during his June 19 post-FOMC press conference. We will look for comments on what other economic indicators, such as growth and inflation, as well as other labor market measures, would influence the timing of the first cut in the purchase pace.
We also expect a lively debate over what conditions would warrant the second and subsequent cuts, with an emphasis on the Fed potentially taking some time to fully wind down QE3. Any indication of the planned size of the reductions in the buying pace, or whether Treasury purchases would be cut more or less than MBS purchases, would be notable. Keep in mind the difference between “participants” (all 19 Fed officials on the FOMC) and “members” (the 12 voters) when assessing support for changing the QE3 purchase pace.
Further debate over the exit strategy would be notable as well. The market had pulled forward the timing of the first rate hike into late 2014, which the minutes are likely to show is earlier than most Fed officials currently think is appropriate.
Comments about whether the Fed will wait until well after the unemployment rate hits 6.5% before the first rate hike, whether the inflation rate must rise to a certain level to consider rate hikes, and potential changes in the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds, all would get attention. Additional discussion may occur over subsequent steps in the exit strategy, including how to implement an interest rate target in the face of a very large amount of excess reserves. We already know from Chairman Bernanke that the majority of the FOMC plans to hold MBS to maturity instead of selling; any additional clarifications to the June 2011 Exit Strategy Principles would be noteworthy.
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Bernanke will hurriedly take to the microphone at the presser, announce that the FOMC has decided it prudent to triple asset purchases for the "foreseeable future," announce that a just pardoned Bernie Madoff will be nominated to be his successor, and exit stage left taking no questions from the plants...errr "reporters."
That is all.
I thought Bernanke will say that he is proud that Jeff Skilling will be out of jail soon. The Federal government needs leaders like him to make sure that the balance sheet is manageable with more off balance sheet financing from the other central banks and the IMF.
Fed wants to curtail "irrational exuberance". Bernanke may not be as dumb as his creditentials suggest. It is entirely possible that he learned his lesson from the housing bubble... but then again he's a graduate from an Ivy Leage University and has a pH Deee... so we really don't know.
Well, "havin' learnt his lezzoun" he sure bollocks up the last convention even after Bozorath and Yikesman got the first soft ball questions.
Booyah!
I'm gonna have a nice warm Thorazine enema to watch this one
Uncle Knukies prediction: Will seem like a lot of rolling of eyes, saliva dropping and funny skin slapping sounds for all its worth....
Don't listen to the music.. watch 'em dance
What I'm eagerly anticipating is seeing what is the momentous event that will be keeping Bennie from going to Jackson Hole.
Whatever it is, I'm sure it'll be a real hoot!
Confucius said: Be not ashamed of mistakes and thus make them crimes.
It's all Bullshit!!!
So I have on CNBS for a look at the Fed comments...and don't you know. they have 2 gay guys telling the audience (if there is one) how to wear a suit....WTF...for about 3-5 min after the release...then they come on to inform us...this people are USELESS
I see Gold just closed (to the down side) that 3 am (ET) gap up. I bet it's just a coincidence and has nothing to do with the upcoming Fedspeak minutes.
No doubt.
If gold got monkey fisted again, that means Bernanke is definitely committed to reducing fiat liquidity.
/totalfukkin'sarc
Looks like Gold is indeed having a little Pre-FOMC sale at the moment:
http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
this is all for bernanke's legacy...so he can claim he tried to exit
Take a look historically....
Gold almost always takes a hit around FOMC meetings.
Can't let that bogus source of value, barbaric relic make the Wise Men look Foolish now, can we
Talk about Perceptions Management, FFS
Ummm....I believe the Fed's exit strategy is already known. At the end of the year, Ben Bernanke retires, probably to some island in the Caribbean owned by Goldman Sachs. Finished. Done. Everything after that is someone else's $4 trillion dollar balance sheet problem.
What could go wrong anyway?
I hope Ben Bernanke rots in hell....
With Satans pitchfork up his arse like a lollipop for eternity.
Ewwwww. A Bernankepop?
I think the rot has already taken hold....
Are we going to hear quivering Bernanke today? He's in a world of shit and he knows it....somebody needs to step up and shout 'THIEF' while throwing their shoe at his face.
The markets are completely beholden to the criminals at the Fed. Can't wait to see how the all knowing Bubbles Ben cleans up the mess they made. Should make for interesting theatre.
What time are today's lies going to be released?
Any minute now....watch the swings thereafter....
4:10 ET.
What time is the front-running version released?
anyone get the pre-release of the minutes yet? what did friends at JPM and GS trading desks share? Anything?
Obviously by now, they've gone out to everyone special....any leaks?
He will discuss the purchase of new money printers and what a shame it would be not to try them out by printinging another trillion next year.
I am used to Bernanke laughing at gold before he talks. I am not used to watching oil give bernanke a wedgie and bitchslapping him before he talks.
$106.25 with the 10yr sniffing 2.7%
Should be good for a negative gdp print. Hysterical.
My ipad is all electric - no gas needed!
Your iPad likely runs on coal, actually, mined from the Charles Dickens' Coal Company reserves.
Release the KRAKEN!
I'd be happier if they just stopped paying interest on borrowed reserves. Rate hikes are a pipe dream.
annnnd.....gold just turned red....................annd oil just busted through 106...................
This shit is beyond parody now folks.
Talk about jaded? I have really had enough of this continuing shit-show these cunts dictate to us.
Bernanke, if someone gets up and gives you a fucking good hiding will be the only time in the past four years I will have been 'Suprised'.
You nation wrecking dwarf cunt clam. Lets hope one of them paid shills grows a pair.
Highly unlikey of course.
Cunts.
"You nation wrecking dwarf cunt clam."
Best verbal Bernanke smack-down I've seen in a while, thank you.
I tire of the circus as well. Thinking about the press conferences - perhaps Yellen won't be the replacement as I don't see her being as nearly as good a bullshitter as Larry Summers would be.
Cheers Eb,
Seriously, I think we have all had enough, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after fucking year.
I would have said send in the clowns, but I'm not. I hope, nigh on pray, that some extra terestrial force comes down and removes these fuckers before I go insane, just in case I havent like, or before I do??
Fuck it mate, I give up.
:-(
Anybody who bought any UST/USD denominated bonds in the last 1 year, is suffering a great loss. Last 2 months have been a disaster in particular for even mega stars like Gross and Gundlach, not to mention every single bond fund with every single top bank, peaking about 12 months back and never looking back. Some funds peaked about 2 months ago due to varying duration. When the yields touch 3% and then 4% is a matter of debate, not if.
Let the tsunami of interest rate rises begin....
At what point does Leonardo scream, 'I am the king of the world'.....before the Titanic sinks, right? :) Am sure Bernanke is thinking the same! 'Kate' ('market') went missing while he was busy thumping his chest! Wonder where she must be? Hmmmmmm.....
Watch this video to see how the market will react shortly...maybe in the next 15 minutes....or when Bernanke speaks in Boston?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aqDoPDgjco
Fade the first move.
they will keep printing or everything will collapse. there is no plan B. maybe a plan G... guns, gold, and a getaway plan ;)
Ammo's back at Walmart...hope you're doing the right thing
Don't hit it long. But don't leave it short.
Exactly! And it better be in the middle of the cup!
The 100th anniversary of the Federal Reserve System enactment is on Monday, December 23rd, 2013
Tell me why.... I don't like Mondays? Tell me why.....?
@
Will that be the new Black Monday?
I hope they say something to strengthen the economy again.
Can oil overcome the amount of people buying VXX condoms by the case load to pull up equites pants? http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1373486400000&chddm=763&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:SPY;NYSEARCA:XIV&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSEARCA:USO&&fct=big&ei=oKDdUcCrMIiC0QGzHQ
If I was the Bernank I would strut out with a couple bitches on each arm, a cigar in my mouth and, a shot of crown on the rocks in my hand and tell the press...."party on bitchez! It's better for the empire to burn out than fade away!"
u have style
time to hang onto every word of a madman again.
Keep printing Bitch- Yellen will continue down the same path
U.S. Blew $34 Million on Unused Afghan Facility Now Likely to Be Torn Down
http://news.yahoo.com/u-blew-34-million-unused-afghan-facility-now-15592...
BlowHorn: "Look at that Dow spike!"