FOMC Minutes: Half The Fed Participants Said It Would Be Appropriate To End QE "Late This Year"

Tyler Durden's picture

Discord appears to be the best word to describe the FOMC minutes but the baffle 'em with bullshit seems like the order of the day:

  • FED SAYS SEVERAL ON FOMC SAW QE TAPERING LIKELY WARRANTED SOON
  • FED SAYS MANY ON FOMC SAID LABOR GAINS NEEDED BEFORE QE TAPER
  • FED SAYS FOMC SAW FISCAL POLICY RESTRAINING ECONOMIC GROWTH

As a reminder, uberdove Charles Evans wanted 200K or more in job gains in the past two quarters. Here's the thing - the average monthly job gain in the past 6 months is... 201,000. As for the punchline:

  • HALF OF THE FED INDICATED IT LIKELY WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO END ASSET PURCHASES LATE THIS YEAR - NOT SLOW END
  • A FEW PARTICIPANTS INDICATED THAT THE COMMITTEE SHOULD SLOW OR STOP ITS PURCHASES AT THE JUNE MEETING - "OR STOP"

Communication matters apparently. But the key is that taper appears (forget about an all out stop) to be coming soon - and as usual - it's all data-dependent. Aside from that, it is the usual baffle with BS schtick. Most importantly, with half the Fed saying not just taper, but flat out end to QE by 2014, we now have a full blown mutiny in the Fed.

Pre: S&P 500 futures 1644.50 (VWAP), EURUSD 1.2850, 10Y 2.66%, Gold $1250, WTI $106.45

The highlight paragraph from the minutes:

Participants also described their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Given their respective economic outlooks, all participants but one judged that it would be appropriate to continue purchasing both agency MBS and longer-term Treasury securities. About half of these participants indicated that it likely would be appropriate to end asset purchases late this year. Many other participants anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to continue purchases into 2014. Several participants emphasized that the asset purchase program was effective in supporting the economic expansion, that the benefits continued to exceed the costs, or that continuing purchases would be necessary to achieve a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market. A few participants, however, indicated that the Committee could best foster its dual objectives and limit the potential costs of the program by slowing, or stopping, its purchases at the June meeting.

Not just slow. STOP.

There will never be any MBS sales: 

Most, however, now anticipated that the Committee would not sell agency mortgagebacked securities (MBS) as part of the normalization process

As for the (all cash) housing (non) recovery:

Participants generally were optimistic that the recovery in housing activity would be sustained, although a couple of participants were concerned that the run-up in mortgage rates in recent weeks might begin to crimp demand... Several participants worried that higher mortgage rates and bond yields could slow the recovery in the housing market and restrain business expansion.

The full minutes:

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stocktivity's picture

Market just ramped higher...the bullshit hit the fan. Rally on.

Divided States of America's picture

much ado about bullshit.

What a load of crock these fuckin minutes are.

ACP's picture

There goes stop run #1.

Wouldn't be surprised to see another before the end of the week.

NoDebt's picture

I was thinking the same thing.  "At the June meeting."  Yeah, what year?

Chupacabra-322's picture

It's a Criminal system, built by Crinimals for Criminals. The business of America used to be business. Now the businesses of Amerika are war, theft, mass murder, and police state crackdown on anyone who objects.

RockyRacoon's picture

Thou doth protest too much.   There is business in America.  It's named after Charles Ponzi.

Now buck up a bit and enjoy Mandy's cleavage.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Everyone just wants to go on record as saying "I was against QE".  Its  an attempt at preserving credibility, no more, no less.

When my dog comes up to me and begs, I can tell him "Do you want to go for a walk?"  and he gets REALLY REALLY EXCITED.  For a little while, any way.  If I don't take him for the walk he gets mad as hell.   (swap going for a walk with QE, for the financial version, swap my dog with the markets)

BLOTTO's picture

Soooo, whats on tv on Wednesday nights?

malikai's picture

REJOICE SLAVES!

tHE rECOVERy iS uPON uS.

disabledvet's picture

now that they're in the entertainment business as well as doing the regular "monetary stuff" i have a few ideas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ3fjQa5Hls clearly we're in need of a ratings improvement. try this out FOMC!

FuzzyDunlop21's picture

So nothing new. 

Last time we heard this PM dropped 4% but today they get a boner. Im speechless. Not that Im complaining but lets get some fucking consistency. 

Divided States of America's picture

Bernanke better have his A game on later in the speech like he did last time. A for Assclown

Bay of Pigs's picture

"Err.....ummm.........ahhh.......annnnnd.....ahhhh....."

Uncle Ben

RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, gawd.  Imagine the soporific Larry Summers up there.  Talk about your mealy-mouth.

SAT 800's picture

Yeah; half of them want to end QE; the other half are going, "what Indian Reservation is this?". "What's this meeting about, again?". Groan.

TeMpTeK's picture

I voted to taper before I voted not to taper...

francis_sawyer's picture

I've often thought about studying law... BEFORE I've always thought about becoming a rabbi... BEFORE I've always thought about becoming a golf club... BEFORE I decided to go to work for the FED...

SAT 800's picture

Taper before voting; then shove it up the candidates butt.

fonzannoon's picture

and it takes them 25 pages to say this 

whatever. Crude and the 10yr is all that matters. The next gdp should be funny as shit, and the taper is data dependent. what a long fuckin way to say QE4eva

TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernank & the gang at the FOMC are like a pretzels, all contorted, trying to keep equity "markets" from imploding, trying to cap the ass of ^TNX, and simultaneously attempting to slap oil's boner down.

fonzannoon's picture

two cnbc guys are competing as to who can hypothetically suck the S&P 500's dick moar.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Maybe Mandy can help with that? She gotz a purdy mouf.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Steve LIESman just bet Bob Pissant 10 Bernanks that he could suck a golf ball through a garden hose, when Becky Quick interrupted them on a schizoid rant about how she'll "drink everyones' milkshakes."

Weird shit at CNBS. Maybe ratings are down?

ebworthen's picture

Mandy Drury looking pretty spicy today in her sleeveless purple Summer dress buttoned down to show off the cleavage.

RockyRacoon's picture

She has that trailer-park-trash air about her that we down here in the South love so much.  The dyed blonde hair with ample dark roots is the key element.  Like Dolly Parton once said, it costs a lot to look that cheap.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Trophy wives are goddamn enablers.  If every trophy wife and prostitute refused to be seen on the arm of Bloomberg, Blankfein, Buffett etc. we could end this all a lot quicker.  Not much incentive to the trophy wives, although, they would be national heros...

JonNadler's picture

if Betty is around it's no contest

crazyjsmith's picture

"Best way to rob a bank is to own one"
William Black

AllThatGlitters's picture

Wow, look at Gold and Silver spot prices reacting:

Real Time:

http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

Will they reverse shortly?  They always do. First reaction never seems to be the final reaction.

BurningFuld's picture

Not Gold and Silver rising,but the USD collapsing.

outamyeffinway's picture

Ground hog day all over again. Same shit, different day. Year in, year out. And yet the fish keep biting.

The Thunder Child's picture

My god, it's full of lies...

disabledvet's picture

or some dip is buying? you be the judge...(jury, executioner, etc.)

fuu's picture

Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat.

knukles's picture

That's from Bull-Wankel, no?

fuu's picture

"Consumer price inflation was subdued, partly reflecting transitory influences. However, measures of longer-run inflation expectations remained stable.", quavered the Beard.

TruthInSunshine's picture

"Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat."

& then he just rips the fur off the poor bunny.

Sorry - Obligatory.

h/t Lewis Black

RockyRacoon's picture

Remember that Rocky was the flying squirrel.  Alas, there were no coons on the show.  My Gideon Bible collection has grown exponentially.

samsara's picture

"I gotta get a new hat..."