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FOMC Minutes: Half The Fed Participants Said It Would Be Appropriate To End QE "Late This Year"
Discord appears to be the best word to describe the FOMC minutes but the baffle 'em with bullshit seems like the order of the day:
- FED SAYS SEVERAL ON FOMC SAW QE TAPERING LIKELY WARRANTED SOON
- FED SAYS MANY ON FOMC SAID LABOR GAINS NEEDED BEFORE QE TAPER
- FED SAYS FOMC SAW FISCAL POLICY RESTRAINING ECONOMIC GROWTH
As a reminder, uberdove Charles Evans wanted 200K or more in job gains in the past two quarters. Here's the thing - the average monthly job gain in the past 6 months is... 201,000. As for the punchline:
- HALF OF THE FED INDICATED IT LIKELY WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO END ASSET PURCHASES LATE THIS YEAR - NOT SLOW END
- A FEW PARTICIPANTS INDICATED THAT THE COMMITTEE SHOULD SLOW OR STOP ITS PURCHASES AT THE JUNE MEETING - "OR STOP"
Communication matters apparently. But the key is that taper appears (forget about an all out stop) to be coming soon - and as usual - it's all data-dependent. Aside from that, it is the usual baffle with BS schtick. Most importantly, with half the Fed saying not just taper, but flat out end to QE by 2014, we now have a full blown mutiny in the Fed.
Pre: S&P 500 futures 1644.50 (VWAP), EURUSD 1.2850, 10Y 2.66%, Gold $1250, WTI $106.45
The highlight paragraph from the minutes:
Participants also described their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Given their respective economic outlooks, all participants but one judged that it would be appropriate to continue purchasing both agency MBS and longer-term Treasury securities. About half of these participants indicated that it likely would be appropriate to end asset purchases late this year. Many other participants anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to continue purchases into 2014. Several participants emphasized that the asset purchase program was effective in supporting the economic expansion, that the benefits continued to exceed the costs, or that continuing purchases would be necessary to achieve a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market. A few participants, however, indicated that the Committee could best foster its dual objectives and limit the potential costs of the program by slowing, or stopping, its purchases at the June meeting.
Not just slow. STOP.
There will never be any MBS sales:
Most, however, now anticipated that the Committee would not sell agency mortgagebacked securities (MBS) as part of the normalization process
As for the (all cash) housing (non) recovery:
Participants generally were optimistic that the recovery in housing activity would be sustained, although a couple of participants were concerned that the run-up in mortgage rates in recent weeks might begin to crimp demand... Several participants worried that higher mortgage rates and bond yields could slow the recovery in the housing market and restrain business expansion.
The full minutes:
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Market just ramped higher...the bullshit hit the fan. Rally on.
much ado about bullshit.
What a load of crock these fuckin minutes are.
There goes stop run #1.
Wouldn't be surprised to see another before the end of the week.
Gold, bitchez
Straight up so far:
http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
Is that 2014 or 12014?
I was thinking the same thing. "At the June meeting." Yeah, what year?
It's a Criminal system, built by Crinimals for Criminals. The business of America used to be business. Now the businesses of Amerika are war, theft, mass murder, and police state crackdown on anyone who objects.
Thou doth protest too much. There is business in America. It's named after Charles Ponzi.
Now buck up a bit and enjoy Mandy's cleavage.
Everyone just wants to go on record as saying "I was against QE". Its an attempt at preserving credibility, no more, no less.
When my dog comes up to me and begs, I can tell him "Do you want to go for a walk?" and he gets REALLY REALLY EXCITED. For a little while, any way. If I don't take him for the walk he gets mad as hell. (swap going for a walk with QE, for the financial version, swap my dog with the markets)
Soooo, whats on tv on Wednesday nights?
REJOICE SLAVES!
tHE rECOVERy iS uPON uS.
now that they're in the entertainment business as well as doing the regular "monetary stuff" i have a few ideas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ3fjQa5Hls clearly we're in need of a ratings improvement. try this out FOMC!
So nothing new.
Last time we heard this PM dropped 4% but today they get a boner. Im speechless. Not that Im complaining but lets get some fucking consistency.
Bernanke better have his A game on later in the speech like he did last time. A for Assclown
"Err.....ummm.........ahhh.......annnnnd.....ahhhh....."
Uncle Ben
"puzzled"
lol/cry
Oh, gawd. Imagine the soporific Larry Summers up there. Talk about your mealy-mouth.
Yeah; half of them want to end QE; the other half are going, "what Indian Reservation is this?". "What's this meeting about, again?". Groan.
I voted to taper before I voted not to taper...
I've often thought about studying law... BEFORE I've always thought about becoming a rabbi... BEFORE I've always thought about becoming a golf club... BEFORE I decided to go to work for the FED...
Taper before voting; then shove it up the candidates butt.
and it takes them 25 pages to say this
whatever. Crude and the 10yr is all that matters. The next gdp should be funny as shit, and the taper is data dependent. what a long fuckin way to say QE4eva
Bernank & the gang at the FOMC are like a pretzels, all contorted, trying to keep equity "markets" from imploding, trying to cap the ass of ^TNX, and simultaneously attempting to slap oil's boner down.
two cnbc guys are competing as to who can hypothetically suck the S&P 500's dick moar.
Maybe Mandy can help with that? She gotz a purdy mouf.
Steve LIESman just bet Bob Pissant 10 Bernanks that he could suck a golf ball through a garden hose, when Becky Quick interrupted them on a schizoid rant about how she'll "drink everyones' milkshakes."
Weird shit at CNBS. Maybe ratings are down?
Mandy Drury looking pretty spicy today in her sleeveless purple Summer dress buttoned down to show off the cleavage.
She has that trailer-park-trash air about her that we down here in the South love so much. The dyed blonde hair with ample dark roots is the key element. Like Dolly Parton once said, it costs a lot to look that cheap.
Trophy wives are goddamn enablers. If every trophy wife and prostitute refused to be seen on the arm of Bloomberg, Blankfein, Buffett etc. we could end this all a lot quicker. Not much incentive to the trophy wives, although, they would be national heros...
Just two?
if Betty is around it's no contest
Betty?? Betty sez you've been naughty and must be spanked...
Thieves Guarding the Bank, Traitors Guarding the Country.
http://americandictators.blogspot.com/
"Best way to rob a bank is to own one"
William Black
Wow, look at Gold and Silver spot prices reacting:
Real Time:
http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/
Will they reverse shortly? They always do. First reaction never seems to be the final reaction.
Not Gold and Silver rising,but the USD collapsing.
Ground hog day all over again. Same shit, different day. Year in, year out. And yet the fish keep biting.
My god, it's full of lies...
Buying the dip?
or some dip is buying? you be the judge...(jury, executioner, etc.)
Buying from the dipshits.
Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat.
That's from Bull-Wankel, no?
"Consumer price inflation was subdued, partly reflecting transitory influences. However, measures of longer-run inflation expectations remained stable.", quavered the Beard.
"Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat."
& then he just rips the fur off the poor bunny.
Sorry - Obligatory.
h/t Lewis Black
"this time for sure"
Remember that Rocky was the flying squirrel. Alas, there were no coons on the show. My Gideon Bible collection has grown exponentially.
Don't go chasing rabbits...
~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zf_AMkxYl8
"I gotta get a new hat..."
One turd tapering = another one queued.
Short version:
"The FED will give Wall Street all the Heroin it needs and continue to punish savers and the responsible citizen by misallocating capital and resources while keeping the government/banker cabal humming."
pretty much. "no apologies either." any other questions?
Shorter version for algos:
'Other half' of Fed still says spice must flow.
+1 for 'Dune' reference...
Paul: Stilgar, do we have wormsign?
Stilgar: Usul, we have wormsign the likes of which even God has never seen.
Wall Street banks are still going to get the interest on reserves payments aren't they ($80 billion)?
The American People appear not to care much as they continue to get steamrolled by their own government, Fed & Wall Street.
Fade the bounce.
Bond yields...not improving marketdly. Paging the Bernank, paging the Bernank...you have lost control.
Schizonomics rules ok.
Labor gains? Good luck...
Oh, you say that like it's impossible. What they mean by labor "gains" is a headline number south of 6.5%. Never happen, right? Wrong! "Gains" means driving enough people out of the labor force to get down to that number. They're not there yet, but making steady progress every year. It's how we've climbed down from ~10% to where we are now.
The unemployment % is meaningless. Wages, tax rates, and number employed counts. Down, up (or flat), and down.
WTI 106.50... That is all... Rinse repeat 2008...
Yup, keep printing until oil goes to $200 and deny that you are causing any inflation the whole way.
I'll write their upcoming line for them...
"Not one person saw it coming. We all thought the world could print infinite amounts of money with zero consequence. This must be a failure of the free market to price things correctly."
Yeah, when is Obama going to order Placeholder to do something about the evil speculators?
Can't let Bernank & Crew take the heat for rising energy (or all other) prices.
they won't allow oil to go up much further - beatdown coming soon
with soon they mean when unemployment hits 6.5%
hahahaha
Utter nonsense. Never happen.
The Fed is fucking useless.
useless or clueless? or both?
they r waiting for fucking labor growth?
do these shitheads not realize there policies have just delayed whatever growth we would fucking see?
if that is what they are waiting for, they will be waiting many many years.
same fucking bullshit
Yes, they realize it. Better yet, they bank on it.
Please stop confusing words with actions.
They can just change the data...that is easy with seasonality adjustments.....they make that shit up....or birth /death numbers....all smoke....they can´t stop QE....ever.....This China/EU slump will hit here in 6 months.....we just jumped the gun on the world economy....no one is buying right now...
Yeah, words like "stop" uttered by these fools is hilarious...there is no stopping the crazy train!
Not enough candy sprinkles for these manure releases...
Speaking of toppings... they just did a feature about cronuts. The effin' things are $5 each. Almost as much of a rip-off as a cup of Starbucks "coffee". The world goes bankrupt and people spend money on crap like this. They deserve what they get.
Does the Grand FUBAR itself speak today?
I thought he was to expound on the glorious 100 year history of Fed meddling...
?
What a fucking joke. Why even bother.
Blah blah blah.
On the one hand,on another and suddenly you are a Indian godesss.
He can't stop,but he can never admit that.He has lost control.
Jobs mandate my ass.
Down in the jungle where nobody goes,
There lives a wishy washy woman washing her clothes.
She says "Ooh, Aah, Goshy, Goshy Goo"
Time to cherry pick some 1000x P/E stocks to short in a couple of months.
The vast majority of Americans have no idea what is going to happen when the Fed turns off the tap - again.
It depends on the definition of "stop".
Around where I live, a stop light means "go like Hell"
STOP !!! Yea baby. Now we just need the algos to take a breather..... :)
But just to add my two cents. "About half" said stop. "Many of the others" (of the other half, that is) said no stop. Which would mean that more than half are either stop or taper. And only "many of the minority" are no stop.
Me thinks "That's all she wrote" folks :)
Yes, let's trot out the Good Cop, Dick Fisher to explain the hawk view.
Actually, they will need to wheel out Yellan/Dudly/Evans and the Ben after it sinks in what just happened. :)
And we need moar HilsenRAMP!
You say yes, I say no.
You say stop and I say go go go, oh no.
You say goodbye and I say hello
Hello hello
I don't know why you say goodbye, I say hello
Hello hello
I don't know why you say goodbye, I say hello.
I just loaded up moar popcorn to watch the collapse of the stock market and Bubble housing market as rates ratchet up 'faster then expected' esp as the castration...ooops, I mean, 'sequestration' kicks in.
The Learned, Bearded Clam has seen his foe, yet now has no mo' control.
In a future interview:
Soon to be be from-hero-to-zero (and the zero is not referring to interest rates).
Q.E.D.
50, 30, 20 and 10% of votes for each option, respectively.
And the fucking equity indexes are going... up of course. Based on fucking what??
"Most importantly, with half the Fed saying not just taper, but flat out end to QE by 2014, we now have a full blown mutiny in the Fed." that means they are too late again. Just look at oil
Kinda, buy hey - the "markets" are disagreeing with you.
How can the Fed be "late" or "early"? The Fed "is" the market. Plunge protection and plunger in one. Their comments are as useful as any bible commentary ever written. When the underlying substance is fictional, any comments regarding the substance are equally fictional.
It suits their agenda. Keeping the story alive and the ponzi going. Not for our benefit. After separation of church and state should also be the separation of financial wizards and state.
More useless jawboning - listen to my words, ignore my actions and failed past predictions.
got to make sure our markets finish green today so we can read on all headlines tonight, ''asian markets to open higher on strong u.s lead'', the type of bullshit we see day after day.
FUCK U EVERY SINGLE FED MEMBER AND OBAMA, I HOPE YOU GUYS BURN IN HELL
Paper PMs are up despite the escalation of language to "or stop".
Something is very, very wrong here.
SHIT SHOW
so taper it is...........and the dow is back to green???? and the 10yr is doing not much of anything????????? wow, ben continues to make the cynics look stupid......................i so look forward to housing numbers...............probably be a huge beat....................employment numbers will continue to improve......and i will learn that ive wasted a good chunk of my life on here..............................
That blue pill is looking pretty damn good right now. It wasn't a total waste for me. At least I got a couple of sandwiches...and a cookie.
Edit...gold just got a boner that should make you happy. At least until the Bernank knocks it down after hours.
nice doc...im going all in on blue pill bets.....im crushing fonz.....anybody want to bet that housing prices improve next month? anybody want to bet that snap participation drops by the end of the year? that unemployment will be 6 percent? that the dollar index hits 90????? come on, i dare you!!!!!..........im all in on the blue pill side..............
i've never seen anyone spike the ball on the 40yrd line. the 2 yard line yes. The 40yrd line, not so much. It's amazing.
i tell you who i am.......................
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eBrb00pdGw
this is me!!!!!!!
i urge you to watch
LMAO...frustrating isn't it?
Thats the goal, either co-opt or drive insane every rational human being on Earth.
Red Pill:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=krY
The mirage is strong, but it's still a mirage.
More Red Pill:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=ks1
I've wasted TWO years. Had I been in a coma and my investments on sheeple autopilot by Vanguard, I would have done quite well. Instead, constant hedging on fundamentals has cost me dearly and probably impacted my health more than the 2 years I've lost wasting time losing money.
exactly!!! to hell with theory and ideology!!!my nest egg wouldve been a whole lot larger if i wasnt preparing for mad max.................... i shouldve kept my index funds when they crashed in 2008.........................i need a trip to the mall.............an extra tall mocha vanilla frapachino latte............a new car lease!!!!....feels good!!!! im going back to cnbc.....they have been more right than zh................................fuck this doomer shit......................
what's with the doomer shit? I'm a blast at parties. I'm sure of it.
I told you kito, we will lose our minds well before anything gives. One by one we will overdose on blue pills, only to realize you are stuck here. This is purgatory, and after it is hell.
Did i mention I was a blast at parties?
How do you think the Soviet people felt about their lives? Government was telling them that all was great but everyone on the ground knew their lives were shit and that the government was lying. The cronies lived well and the armies of civil servants and soldiers lived well. The rest of the population lived like dogs. No hope and no opportunity.
It will come to an end when the people who are not benefitting say "fuck it" and develop their own shadow economy where real goods are traded for real currency. The US is well on its way to becoming the socialist hell hole everyone was mocking back in the Seventies and Eighties before the wall came down.
Fed is powerful but Fed can't suspend gravity anymore than Merlin could make gold from hay. Evenutally the King was out of coins.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
One of the number one ways to make your money go farther will in the near future be to spend it on the black market. No sales tax, for one. But even bartering, exchanging favors, medical service, accounting/bookkeeping, carpentry, either in return for services or for food/other goods.
The govt will of course attempt to deem all this income and take a share. You will prefer to not have it deemed income.
What's with everyone freaking out wishing for their index funds back?
The trees are shaking I guess.
trees are shaking, but no money is falling from them............thats the problems with the red pill......................
all the ignorant SOB out there who dont bother to research one iota of data are going about their lives fat dumb and happy..with a healthy portfolio..and glad they never listened to my illogical rants.....................and everything that is supposed to happen when ben even hints of tapering, hints of the punchbowl being removed....ISNT FUCKING HAPPENING!!!
"and everything that is supposed to happen when ben even hints of tapering, hints of the punchbowl being removed....ISNT FUCKING HAPPENING!!!"
Other than that 100 basis point move in the 10 year?
Also, the credibility of tapering is really not that high right now. Believe it when you see it, and not a moment sooner.
LMAO, Sad but probably true - the fact is that the shit will hit the fan at some point and it will be worse than we can currently imagine, but it may be after I'm dead and gone - at 50 years old currently. The last six years have felt like the previous 20 crammed into the same span of time.
Upon further reflection, I hope I am fvcking dead when it transpires. Between now and then, it will be a spectacular show:)
I hope I see the fall of the House of Rothschild in my time. Is that too much to ask for?
How true :)
Bullish!
Bernanke is going to give the classic economist speech "On the one hand.., then on the other hand..." "It's all data dependent".....(And the Fed / NSA controls the data)
This has to remind one of Bernie Madoff, its all good untiil it goes Poof !
So the little guys left in the market can relax, they'll be able to get out before the FED's insiders do.
Sure.
A taper will happen by default and no other way......
and only after the hyperinflationary blow-off
"The Fed is concerned our scheme of looting America's present and future is not moving fast enough."
"Gold has become irrelevant in today's modern economy, and the Fed will soon put all its gold reserves back into the earth. Our reserves wll be gone as they will no longer be needed. Ft Knox will become a community organizing center."
Fed expects at least another 1.7 million people to drop out of the labor pool by 2014. Got it.
The only thing that will bring these markets down are fake tweets, such as the one about obama being hurt a few months ago.
other than that, everything is bullish.
the most interesting thing about that selloff was how prices returned exactly to where they were prior to the tweet. in any normal market, stop-running moves the equilibrium point and prices never full revert.
it was surreal, like someone pushed a rewind button and the market went into reverse and was cancelling those trades at the same speed they had been entered. it wasn't announced that any trades were being cancelled but that's what it looked like.
... we now have a full blown mutiny in the Fed.
Is it sure those four F-16s are going to fly to Egypt?
Slowing or stopping, the markets will react in the same way; plunge unlimited. There goes the labor market into the sewer. QE will pop up again like a balloon out of the water. How many months/years will the Tylers be able to get this digital shit on ZH? And how long before i go down together with my metals ? God damn propaganda machine FOMC. Compliments for Tylers for staying polite, day after day.
Those guys that bought the 10 years today might feel a little cheesy right now.....but this is good for another 20 emergency speeches to calm things down....all the Fed heads will be out tomorrow saying.."nevermind"
There's no mutiny. When it gets serious, they have to lie. And lie big. All public releases are big lies. They have never been more in total agreement with each other that they must all perpetuate the lie and baffle the sheeple with bullshit.
I thought thier manadate was to make every single wall street employee a millionaire....of course that will only buy them a loaf of bread...but hey!
word cloud must have messed up the algo reads.....lets watch this sow reverse under 1650 and end the day at 1640.....higher rates will cause greater expenses for all----less marginal liquidity will cause needers of liquidty to sell....do they not see whats going on in china, do they not remember how liquidity dried up in subprime lending a year before lehman? can stocks stay up in a global recession while bonds and commodiites get whacked? only if they lower margin req's....gotta create more credit!
Just end the nonsense and get out of the WAY!
The Fed is screwed and they know it. Bond market about to throw another fit and this one will put UST 10yr over 3% & 5yr over 2%
The banks are begging the Fed to get rates back down and they can't.
Shitstorm is upon us right here, right now.
re: " the Committee would not sell agency mortgagebacked securities (MBS) as part of the normalization process"
Sounds like the fed HAS looked under the sheets of the MBS whore. All they see is pure CRAP!
Waiting for IGYG to kick in.
(I'm Gone, You're Gone)
IBG YBG = i'll be gone, you'll be gone
To the complainers: Stop complaining! We all know that Fed doesn't create wealth. So what does it do? It redistributes claims on wealth, primarily through the stock market. Get on the bus or bet the Fed will fail! Or, invest in agricultural tools and learn how to use them for a really good return.
So now we have 6 good cops and 6 bad cops. Who scripts this chit? What's that old saying "Men make plans, God laughs." Well after watching this shit show God must have pissed Godself by now.
Just like those IMF estimates, "next year, no wait, next year, no wait, next years... Any year now..."
There's no mutiny, as they haven't actually done anything, and no conspiracy to mutiny as they're simply lying for effect: to gauge market reaction and wag the dog (creating expectations). They are totally unaccountable, and this does not constitute some kind of law or contract stipulating we-will-taper-no-matter-what on the 12th of ___.
Jawboning works both ways. Perception management is all they ever really did, anyway.
The're a bunch of Cub fans. :)
"Fed Announces We're Screwed; Printing To Support Socialism Don't Work..."
"We Tried, We Failed..."
"We Really Feel Sorry For The Children...."
"Ben Says 'Grab Any Job You Can, And Learn To Grow Your Own Food'..."
Brown shoots....taper ON.
Imagine a corportation running like this? Congress, WH, Fed yes as they either spend other peoples money or just create it.
Next month they will blindfold one Fed Commitee member and have him or her play pin the tail on the calendar to determine when QE3 ends.
With ZB solidy taking out the 135 handle that supported it in 2011 and 2012, and no real support at 130 or 128, we could see a ten-handle crash all the way down to 125 in the 30-yr. The 30-yr auction happens tomorrow at 1 PM EDT.
Flight to safety in treasuries is no longer happening. CL is on the way to 110 on global stability fears but treasuries keep falling. Central banks can prop up equity markets but they can't keep long interest rates from rising.
The crash in bonds will end up spilling over to equity markets and maybe then we'll see a rotation into gold. What other safe haven is there besides CNY?