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Post-FOMC Minutes Update: Market As Confused As Fed (But Fades Rally)

Tyler Durden's picture


UPDATE: All Change; now the knee-jerk rally in bonds and stocks is fading rapidly (and the USD is bid)


It seems the markets are as confused as the Fed members. The initial knee-jerk bid for bonds, stocks, and gold was retraced soon after; only to be ignored for another push higher as we post. Interestingly FX markets are 'less' undecided - it is taper-off as the USD is being offered everywhere with little retrace. As the Russell 2000 hits an all-time intrday high, equities still feel unstable (and VIX dropped to 14.06%).


Taper Off...14:18ET



To Taper On...14:30ET - Scratch all that - market re-retracing gains now... lol


It seems the "if confused buy" meme may just hit a wall today?


Charts: Bloomberg


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Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:40 | 3738435 Dareconomics
Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:48 | 3738441 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Interest rates, the unstoppable force of real markets that the true supply/demand curve will always ultimately control, and that many naively presumed Bernank could keep the lid on for all of QEternity, meet the Bearded Clam.

*With faithful, competent (/sarc) allies like Kuroda & Draghi (/sarc2), noone, least of all The Bernank, could've modeled for it or otherwise have seen it (a massive tsunami) coming.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:52 | 3738475 flacon
flacon's picture

A rise in market price is bearish for the markets. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:57 | 3738497 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Gold and silver gave up their gains:

However, is the game over? I thought I read that bond purchases will continue until employment rises? Which means despite the noise from "half" the members, bond purchases / QE will continue, period.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 16:06 | 3738797 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Of course its going to continue thru' QE99 as Faber like to say.

The Bernanke is merely trying to talk the market into

going sideways.Trouble is the bubble is already blown.

Bubbles don't deflate except with violence,no blow  tube.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:28 | 3738634 underman
underman's picture

The meltup cannot be denied.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:54 | 3738483 davinci7_gis
davinci7_gis's picture

"For the next three months we may or may not be in a up or down trend in the markets"

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:42 | 3738440 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:46 | 3738447 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

He might as well go for it. If he tried to talk rates down he ends up looking like a total clueless asshole. May as well roll the dice.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:53 | 3738480 reload
reload's picture

And, as you said the other day, make it at least sound as if his money printing fest has worked, as if he has fixed the economy!

I think Mr Slaughterer is going to be right (again)

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:56 | 3738490 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Why is it I think moar "transparency" is not gonna get the job done here?  He should just shut up and run his little monetary schemes.  But he won't.  Loves to hear himself talk too much.


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:06 | 3738528 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

The ONLY way the Fed manipulates rates back down at this point is to not only taper but stop QE and start talking about UNWINDING the balance sheet. 

Which he may try.

Never underestimate the hubris and arrogance of a central banker and their belief that they can control all outcomes. 

BB doesn't want what is happeneing right now. 

Bonds are going to puke once again.


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:11 | 3738555 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

"The ONLY way the Fed manipulates rates back up..."

Fixed it for you.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:24 | 3738616 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

nope, I had it right the first time

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:02 | 3738513 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Like i always tell my wife: hunny its time to jam out with your clam out.
At that point im usually hangin out with my wang out.

A side note, clams are delicious. Wait what about bernak...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:03 | 3738514 maskone909
maskone909's picture


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:44 | 3738443 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

hard to beat twinkle toes still, here the Loius Armstrong version with Ella Fitzgerald: c'mon're getting stale here. you need to start picking up your game.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:44 | 3738444 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Yeah well 'Fed minutes time' is the breeding ground for lots of BS headlines to pop up so these predatory HFT algos are like those fuckin sentinels in the movie Matrix swarming about trying to rape everyones asses the second they activate from 'noise' coming out of the newswire.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:46 | 3738448 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture


Many, several, some, few. My kid has a Sesame Street book covering these.

There is Bernanke, and then there is Dudley. Everyone else is color. Everyone else is on Sesame Street.

All the explanations are color as well. It's not about unemployment, it's about bank balance sheets.

And bond markets to monetize US Debt. Less debt, less monetization. Period.

Every beginning has an end within it. Taper begins in September.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:58 | 3738503 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"bond markets to monetize US Debt. Less debt, less monetization. Period."

Don't worry.  They'll make more.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:51 | 3738451 Nid
Nid's picture

The Bershanker should face racketeering charges for creating this abomination. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:14 | 3738573 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Let's invoke Fed theory: Hang Bernanke first, then try him.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:48 | 3738456 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Gotta get this thing under control, Ben. The market is all that matters at this point. For whatever reason, Americans have been conditioned to believe the market represents the wider economy, so if the market is up, the economy must be improving. If they don't see the improvement in their own lives, they're simply the exception that proves the rule. They mustn't believe their lying eyes.

Never mind the fact that 53% don't even have a 401(k). Never mind the fact that the wealthiest 10 percent own about 85 percent of all outstanding stocks, as well as 85 percent of all financial securities and 90 percent of all business assets. If the market is up and the average person sees no benefit whatsoever, he or she just isn't looking hard enough.

The way it works is that the economy may, in reality, be a giant turd for most Americans, but the market will be used as lipstick to pretty it up. And if people start to complain about the shitty smell, a splash of Eau de War should be enough to distract them from the stink.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:49 | 3738465 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

" Never mind the fact that the wealthiest 10 percent own about 85 percent of all outstanding stocks, as well as 85 percent of all financial securities and 90 percent of all business assets"

So we still have another 10 - 15% to go.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:00 | 3738481 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

AKA the brilliant piece of fail-tacular macroeconomic policy that is:

 Ben S. Bernanke's 'Virtuous Circle'

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:55 | 3738487 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

That seems to be the plan. So where's the anger? How can people still be so passive as they and their children get sold into debt slavery?

I'm more convinced than ever that I'll shit gold before most people wake the hell up. Would that be considered a silver (err... gold) lining?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:33 | 3738650 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You should get on the same bus I'm riding:  Don't worry about what the so-called sheeple do.  That's their business.  They are not needed for riot fodder yet anyhow.  The Fed, Congress, Executive Branch, and SCOTUS will do all that is needed to fold the economic tent.  Then you can worry about the rabble which you seem so concerned about coming after your stuff.  Stock up with essentials and hold the fort.  Worrying about stuff that you have no control over will just give you ulcers.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:48 | 3738458 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Whoops. If it ain't nailed down ...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:48 | 3738461 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Geisler signing off on WTI margin hike announcement right NOW!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:00 | 3738507 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Anything in there about "market participants must be prepared to take physical delivery?"  No?  Shucks again.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:49 | 3738466 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

in this sad reality - where insanity is reality - markets are only following the fed, aka cheap money. fundamentals are not relevant anymore.

the illusion of free markets is as big as the illusion of freedom in this society itself.

there was no recovery, markets died in 2008/2009.


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:57 | 3738492 cossack55
cossack55's picture

And Liberty died off completely in 1963

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:54 | 3738482 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Someone is trying to push the USD lower, but EM aren't buying it. EUR/PLN is a good tell. It's on its weekly highs. :)

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:54 | 3738485 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

What a fucked up shit show.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:55 | 3738486 1929agin
1929agin's picture

nose high attitude by those buying equities, (commodities) airpspeed decreasing rapidly,( Oil ) to go, Central Banks, know stickshaker,stall warning coming on, bonds/yields flashing red

Eject eject eject




Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:56 | 3738491 venturen
venturen's picture

But where will the market manipulating money come from? Muppets?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:58 | 3738501 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

USO almost caught up to SPY.  Need a bit more on WTI to hit it.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:59 | 3738505 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

U now may Proceed to short the pig.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:01 | 3738508 ekm
ekm's picture


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:08 | 3738537 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

I think we are right there

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:01 | 3738510 sphindog
sphindog's picture

If the FED is "worried" and they are "in control of the situation," how am I supposed to feel?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:02 | 3738515 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

confused because the algos look to the fed for direction and the fed looks to the algos for direction

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:06 | 3738530 sphindog
sphindog's picture

The answer to all problems...why doens't the FED just buy up all available shares of all SP 500 companies? Everyone will feel great...except half the posters on this blog who either have out of the money puts or 3x bear positions!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:12 | 3738561 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

do not mock the fazmobile. bad juju.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:19 | 3738596 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Patience.  You are young.  You will live to see that day.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:33 | 3738655 sphindog
sphindog's picture

I honestly think I'm watching it. Who else would be stupid enough to buy equities when the guys running the show are worried about how their own plan is being implemented? Today does it for far as I'm concerned, the Fed is propping this equity market up.

The only way I'll be convinced otherwise is if rates drop, or the market drops...can't have it both ways, Ben. Keep buying those stocks!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:22 | 3738605 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

That would eliminate the Pension underfunded-ness, as then they would be 100% underfunded, owning nothing; and that is the problem with these artificial prices: the pensions are forced to overpay and further increase the underfunding.

Bernanke IS THE DESTROYER, killing the middle class in so many ways.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:40 | 3738681 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

True, true.  I'm reminded of all the babble about whether there will be a bail-in to fix some of this mess.  Don't look now but that happened years ago.  When the Fed began taking the savers interest on their money and giving it to the banks -- that was a stealth bail-in.  The next one will be obvious since skimming interest off savings won't be enough.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:07 | 3738534 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Looks like all the FX markets also retraced to pre-announcement levels...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:11 | 3738556 1929agin
1929agin's picture

santelli strong, bond yields alarming

taper this


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:16 | 3738582 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Something is about to explode!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:17 | 3738588 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture




Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:16 | 3738583 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Da Fed;


Did I cause that crash? Did I ?  did I do that, 


calling larry curley and schmow;   LETS ALL BUY LAS VEGAS REAL ESTATE, 


AND MUNIS  suckers. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:18 | 3738593 WezTheJuic
WezTheJuic's picture

Thank-you Tyler.



Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:30 | 3738643 optimator
optimator's picture

Again, at 3:29:59 the pump started as it does every day.  It's done on purpose so everyone knows that the FED is going to pump and they can count on it.......until the day they can't, but by then it'll be too late to head to the exits.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:31 | 3738646 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     With bond yields where they are, CL ramped up to $106.00, and the strong $, it's going to be awefully hard for equity markets to make further gains. The strong dollar is correlated to equity market strength, and that needs to be reversed. (won't happen until Chair Satan cuts back on bond purchases). The Fed. is caught in a "catch 22".

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:40 | 3738687 Duude
Duude's picture

The truth is the Fed is not unlike any investor sitting on his hands parlyzed about what to do. Unfortunately, this Fed had a goal of greater transparency and with that we're watching what a paralytic Fed looks like.  Make no mistake Ben wants to begin the transition to slowing QE, to no QE to maybe even reversing QE one day (yeah, right). But his desire is based on personal reasons. He doesnt' want to leave the Fed without beginning the process. He knows if he doesn't begin the process the next Fed chair may blow up QE leaving egg on Ben's face.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:42 | 3738698 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Out of Time: Conflict/Crisis Management

Empires are creatures of peer pressure, mythology aggregated over time to eliminate thinking with specialization, nothing more than a black hole return line to the DNA churn pool. Its lead line of command is simply paid servants of the empire majority, to act as scapegoats, to manage the mythology. Politics is local, right down to the individual.

If you are participating in peer pressure, watching the empire collapse around you, or are simply doing nothing but mocking its faults, rebelling with no cause to speed its descent, you have no one to blame but yourself. If Paul the highway patrolman gives Bob the tax assessor a $300 ticket and Bob raises Paul’s assessment by $500, they have no one to blame but themselves for the dilution of their currency. Bob and Paul turning on Fred doesn’t help any.

In case you haven’t noticed, we are moving from a 40-hour week to a 24-hour week, because children need time, not money, and you need children, productive children, whether you choose to recognize the problem or not. This planet can easily provide food, clothing and shelter for everyone, if it gets what it needs.

The empire majority, which is incapable of raising children to do so, wants to keep you busy morning, noon and night, feeding it, naturally, with extortion, taking your children and paying itself, with your future, to program them. Why would you expect anything else?

To do so, the empire must pull you out of your time and into its time with some sort of damsel-in-distress, artificial conflict or crisis. Why would you exercise and eat reasonably so others can go to McDonalds and have heart attacks? Why would you raise children sensibly so others can go to McDonalds and have heart attacks? Why are you raising robots for the empire?

Labor is not fixing Boeing, Microsoft, or any of these other moron corporations because they are not the future. They are not producers. They are organizations of consumers. Look at their participant credit reports. They don’t make anything a willing producer would buy. They are subsidized by and for consumers. Without extortion, they don’t exist.

An empire can be grown with direct labor, or its derivatives, monetary and fiscal expansion. The amount of gravity derived depends upon your participation in peer pressure. If you want to increase gravity, step into the empire and do what the boss tells you. If you want to decrease gravity, step out.

Each event horizon has its own divide and conquer itself mantra – “money goes to money,” “men are stupid,” “black people are lazy,” blah, blah, blah. They tell on themselves as soon as they open their mouths, and what they say supports what they do, which is to justify their own stupid behavior.

If the ‘founding fathers’ were so f-ing smart, why did they need slaves? Why did they print money? So much for God and then family and then country. Empires run upside down and always have. The US Constitution doesn’t balance power; only you can do that. It delays responsibility, in a circle jerk…until you take it back.

Of course the empire majority is going to kidnap your children and label you a dead-beat-dad. Of course it is going to tell you that raising children is an unbearable burden better left to the collective so you can occupy an empire make-work job. You have to be smarter than a rock.

Of course an empire is going to tell you that you cannot buy and sell without its currency, its blessing. Of course it’s going to tax any currency you roll out. Tax it back, by discounting its currency. Step out of the feedback loop. If you don’t have the skills, go out and get them. It doesn’t take rocket science to mirror back the feedback loop 24 hours a week.

If you don’t have any skill, it’s in your interest to ignore labor’s activity to the extent you are able. One way or the other, the easy way or the hard way, labor gets the job done. If it didn’t, you wouldn’t exist. Whether you survive the process or not, prosper or not, depends upon you. Capital can’t get out of its own way; it’s the lowest form of energy, the least common denominator.

Divide by zero and what you get depends upon your ability to think, before you act, instead of the other way around. If you think about it, you can build your own generator, turn the earth 180 degrees on its axis, or blow up the solar system with the information provided. Don’t expect me to draw a diagram for you.

If you think “all people are sh-,” an excuse to exploit others, you are part of the majority you are rebelling against. You are who you choose to surround yourself with. The difference between the perception of fight or flight is your destination.

When has the collective majority, including its leaders and its rebels, ever been correct in its assessment of a problem? It has listening issues precisely because it is interested only in itself. It always crashes because it is always looking in the mirror, to the past, chanting “those who do not heed History are doomed to repeat it,” “never again,” or some other such nonsense.

Hurry up and repeat the past, but don’t be surprised to find your self stranded. The empire majority has no patience to listen, but thinks it has an information advantage, due to numbers. Brilliant.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:51 | 3738742 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture


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