This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

WTI Hits $105.99, Brent Spread Disappearing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

WTI crude oil prices have jumped over 14% in the last 12 days (from $92.67 to $105.99) since Egypt erupted - and no, it's not 'growth' hopes as last night's collapse in China did nothing to dent the surging social-unrest-premium. It seems, as much as Egypt, that the total collapse in the Brent-WTI spread is becoming self-feeding now - back below $2.50, its lowest in over 31 months. So between infrastructure issues in the US, technicals in the market, and Middle-Eastern unrest-premia, we are looking at the possibility of $4.10 gas in the not-too-distant future if this is anything but instantly transitory.

 

 

At these levels we should expect gas prices at the pump to top $4.10...!

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:24 | 3737493 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

and isn't it odd how gold and silver haven't really moved? 

isn't it odd?

and isn't it odd how inventories of oil and gas keeping climbing? 

 

blythe is one busy, busy girl.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:26 | 3737502 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Inventories saw their second weekly large draw, far greater than expected.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:27 | 3737511 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

Do you see it too?
Finally a goddamn HOCKEY STICK!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:32 | 3737545 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

How about a chart showing the decline in oil and gas prices overlayed on the rise in refining capacity coupled with the onset of the shopping season (sept-dec) mystery solved.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:40 | 3737600 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

The gal on CNBS said, "high oil prices very Bullish...it's a sign of a strong economy."

 

...mmm...everything they say is a 'sign of a strong economy'...more people quiting, high jobless rate, aliens buying up all the houses in Cali, plunging private sector wages, disappearing Middle Class, decimation of small businesses...it's all Bullish!

 

Makes me feel warm and fuzzy to know all is well.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:52 | 3737653 rqb1
rqb1's picture

Good people over there at CNBC.  Glad they are looking out for us.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:54 | 3737666 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

CheapBastard if you stopped watching CNBS you'd cut their viewership in half.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:54 | 3737910 nugjuice
nugjuice's picture

Oil and gold aren't necessarily connected. Oil is wealth/currency to the West, and Gold is wealth/currency to the East.

Ever wonder why they often flow in opposite directions?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 13:41 | 3738161 Thorlyx
Thorlyx's picture

Confucius said : Everything has its beauty but not everyone sees it.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:54 | 3737667 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Oh, so you're the one watching! I knew they had a viewer somewhere.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:02 | 3737705 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

When there are this many people in the MSM (and the political sphere) INSISTING we are 'recovering' you know who that's aimed at:  The Muppets.

I watch the underlying economics fairly closely (since I'm an economist- but I swear I'm the GOOD kind of economist!) and I've been scratching my head for MONTHS because I'm not seeing recovery.  I haven't been seeing it for a long time, even using the phoney-baloney government-supplied numbers.  It's ANOTHER summer slam.  3rd year in a row (I could even make the case it's the 4th year in a row).  I kept thinking I was missing something.  I don't think I am.  If you want it all in one chart, do a search here for the "Swirlogram."  Shows in one clean graphic pretty much what I've been seeing.

I'm done and out of the market for a while.  I know the levitation may continue for a while longer, but I'd rather be a month or two early than a day late on this call.  Had our chance of a good exit in May... few took advantage.  Now we have what I believe is "last call for alcohol." 

Too many things piling up in the same direction- downward.

1.  Interest rates backing up

2.  Oil shooting up (don't care why- that it's happening is what matters)

3.  Europe, Japan and China- a grab-bag of potential pitfalls but more importantly, slowing or negative growth.  Nuf' said.

We may see our first recession WHILE the Fed has it's foot to the floor, not because they took their foot off the gas, as has been the case in the past.  And THAT would break things.  Bad.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:37 | 3738419 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

We may see our first recession WHILE the Fed has it's foot to the floor, not because they took their foot off the gas, as has been the case in the past.  And THAT would break things.  Bad.

Hence the need to trump up the taper talk, without withdrawing the punch bowl.  They can still desperately try to convince the market that their policies still have room to run and may positively impact the economy.  It's just a move to save face ahead of the impending shit storm (and ramp up in QE).

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:30 | 3738638 mt paul
mt paul's picture

taper

 

give em 

the blunt end first...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:40 | 3737849 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The best sign of a strong economy would actually be a strong economy.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:48 | 3738719 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

CB, higher oil (and gas) prices will do wonders for those 'surburbanites" who drive 25-50 miles to work every day and htought they would sav emoney by moving "way out in nature."

 

In a way, it is bullish for car repair places, Toll Roads, Traffic tickets, carbon credits, and similar.

 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:23 | 3737745 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Everything all seem to make a bit more sense now:

the takedown of MF Global was intentional....this was to take control of the futures market...and get rid of all speculators by causing them to lose all their funds in their account since without these other investors, its even easier to manipulate the future prices. Corzine not going to jail is proof of this.

The non stop QE is taking collateral out of system...so basically the leverage of the entire financial system is on the rise...and everytime we get these non stop rally in the US equities, the threshold of each drop gets smaller and smaller. At 50:1 leverage, its 2%. I think its more like 75 to 80:1 so its like 1.2% now. Soon they cant even let the markets drop. If you look at the last few times the markets made 2 month rallies before a hiccup. Well those equity market moves down were accompanied by ST yields dropping also and this fueled the equities to rebound....but if you look at what happened in May and June...the ST yields actually spiked because the collateral is dwindling and the quality of the collateral is probably getting worse and worse = demanding higher rates to compensate. This means Fed is losing control of the short end of the curve...but after 5 fuckin years of experimenting, its going to get unglue eventually...and Ben knows it...hes losing this battle. Yields rising is having implications to all other asset classes (housing will be next, look at how the homebuilders are lagging even when the markets rebounded in the last week) and well the Equities market will be last man standing...because when you watch news on TV, all they tell you about is how the Dow and SPX hit new highs, not the ugly underlying details of the fragile financial system. (such as ST yields spiking, GOFO rates negative, etc). The sheeps will feel safe even though the floor is cracking underneath...they will all lose their shirts.

This is where POMOs come in to provide a cushion or bid in the markets every fuckin day...no matter what the news coming out is good or bad. I mean most people would dump right at open if the futures were indicated down 5% on bad news but not inclined to do so if its flat or even up. This bullshits been going on for a while now that all the people I know just take bad news like its common now. Basically confidence and trust is the only thing holding the entire financial system up. Fortunately for the sheeps, there are tons of them out there.

Of course the HFTs and algos are designed to do all this because human traders would have pressed the panic button when bad news are out and they dont want that.

Other asset classes are acting real bad recently. Started with FX moves, then gold, and now oil spiking, thats going to help the economy (sarc/)....if Ben really cared about the economy like he says all the time...he would taper right now but of course he only cares for his banking buddies. Hes been lying to us and now hes leaving the sinking ship.

Hate to rant but I am trying to figure out WTF is going on...and I have been in this industry long enough that I feel I should know what is going on by now...but I dont...because something is definitely amiss. I think ekm is right (leverage/collateral issue) but then like fonzy says, nobody knows the time it will detonate...but with every passing day, i can hear the rumble getting louder and louder.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:59 | 3737937 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

welcome to the jungle DS

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:14 | 3737746 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

A ZHer gave me news of TOD's closing and I was reading a few articles. This particular one caught my eye, using Production Per Unit Effort to gauge the macro trend.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10026

But as I've talked it over with a good friend before, and come to a reasonable conclusion, it makes most sense that there is exactly enough oil in the ground to displace oxygen in the atmosphere and lower O2 levels to unbreathability (4-5%?). Where do you think all this oil came from? And why do you think the oxygen composition of our atmosphere is what it was/is?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:24 | 3737785 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

If I were you I would take it with a grain of salt. the amount of air and oxygen in the atmo is in constant flux. In fact I would just assume that it's not even true or just plain complete BS.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:48 | 3737882 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I'm sorry, you are not allowed to make shit up or make vacuous statements using weasel words..

The decline in O2 is perfectly anti-correlated with the rise of C02....

http://scrippso2.ucsd.edu/

It is yet another hard bit of evidence of the Anthropogenic nature of rising C02 levels....

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 13:42 | 3737955 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Interesting considering there was no mention of AGW, you are the one bringing up that farce.

Considering how wrong they got the "science" behind the ozone layer, I doubt I will trust any one government paid official on AGW when their solutions are all based upon government enriched taxation.

 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:33 | 3738387 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Given that the "science" in this subject area comes from a great deal of sources all over the world in all sorts of disciplines (not "one government official"), given that just like the government, the energy companies are huge, misleading and in bed with our "leaders," given that the carbon tax is also criticized by the same wide group of scientists as a con job unrelated to solutions, given that mankind and his "pollution" has already had profound, obvious, and undebated affects, given the ice cores and well (like 911) thousands and thousands of pieces of information and evidence, given that mankind has released a large amount of a compact form of extremely dense energy that took hundreds of millions of years to form into the atmosphere in one hundred years, given that the atmosphere, like nature and the economy, is built on lots of fine ballance without one thing taking massive control and function, given that mankind always attempts to exploit and lie every situation whether true or not, not sure you what your point is....  

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:59 | 3738775 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Championship fucking response. Holla!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 19:19 | 3739152 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

My point is that any science that is based on faulty premises can convince any number of people for a significant amount of time to accept it even more so if a government is paying for the acceptance and research of it, no matter how valid or not it may be. If you look back far enough people used to accept all sorts of things as fact when a few decades later it was proven to be complete and absolute bullshit. The ozone hole is the issue that started this whole AGW scare in the first place, and look what happened to that, the ozone layer turns out to not actually be a layer, but more of a cloud of gas. Then the hole is discovered to actually be a natural gap in the ozone that is at that level of the atmosphere.

Unless you really think that AGW is the only aspect of government backed research that I can smash huge fucking holes in with simple straight forward explanations.

The topics of Quantative Easing and Keynesian Economics come to mind while thinking about this subject and how much absolute bullshit is pushed out around it. I've been around long enough to notice the trend with those promoting the hysteria, and it's obvious to me that it's a scam created by the same cartels that perpetrate the Fiat Money scam.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 22:21 | 3740080 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Out of curiousity, when do you think the science of AGW was hammered out? Not the data, but how things worked? Do you have any idea?

PS Care to back your BS about the Ozone layer with actual research as opposed to facts pulled out of random assess....

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 13:05 | 3737968 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

douchebagsayswhat? nothing speaks to the hubris of man like "man-made climate change". now scurry over to one of Al Gore's 10 mansions- one of his 1.7 gallons-per-flush  toilets need a good scouring.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:53 | 3738659 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Anytime a person brings Al Gore into a discussion about AGW it is a sign that they admit defeat...

Call it  Godwin's Law of  Anthropogenic Climate Change.... 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:04 | 3738233 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

 ... "yet another hard bit of evidence of the Anthropogenic nature of rising C02 levels...."

Hard evidence? You've got to be kidding.

Here we go again: correlation does not imply causation.

Any scientist worth his salt and not wrapped up in the agenda-pushing hysteria induced by the world's socialists will tell you that it is pure folly to try and tie any short term correlation between the last 100 yrs. worth of rising air temps and CO2 levels.  


Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:32 | 3738654 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh my, what a complete and utter asshat...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:30 | 3737815 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

FYI the O2 content of Earth's atmosphere was higher 80 million years ago.  It has not been constant.  This was partly why dinosaurs could exist.  That much animal mass required a lot of O2 to do food conversion to energy.

 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:28 | 3737516 WarHorse
WarHorse's picture

Inventories remain well above the 5 year average

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:52 | 3737652 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Inventory goes only in one direction.  Down.

There's nothing special about whether oil is stored above the ground or below the ground.  Inventory is inventory.

And it only declines.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:35 | 3737567 Cdad
Cdad's picture

"Inventories" is a completely bogus number, on a week by week basis.  Just leave out a tank farm or two on the count and, viola...massive drawdown.

Don't be fooled by it.  Gasoline demand has been collapsing for years.  This fact is unambiguous.   

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:46 | 3737625 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't be so U.S.-centric.  Demand in the U.S. has been dropping, but it's a big world out there.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:07 | 3737725 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Who does the calculations anyway, Jethro Bodine?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:32 | 3737821 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> Jethro Bodine?

You got a problem with Jethro?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:25 | 3737789 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Pricing is done on US demand, unless you think there's a bigger consumer of the stuff out there, in which case I have some nice bridges...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:04 | 3737714 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Gasoline demand is down because we're all wealthy and drive brand new Volts.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:43 | 3737610 walküre
walküre's picture

Are they flooding the oceans with it? Otherwise I don't see where the demand is coming from all of a sudden. Consumption, you know that indicator which actually RECORDS how much of that stuff we burn on a daily basis is at basement levels.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:54 | 3737665 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You know what?

You're right.  Consumption falls.  Price rises.

So supply must be doing what?  Supply is inventory, and inventory is both above and below ground.  Since you can't measure one of those two categories well, all you have is flow rate. 

So supply must be doing what?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:58 | 3737689 walküre
walküre's picture

The supply side is down finally. Thanks for finishing my thoughts.

Makes perfect sense. In a booming economy your supply side and inventory are at capacity because you sell, offload and churn much quicker.

We're in a full blown depression.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:26 | 3737793 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Sure in a working economy where the markets are not rigged you might have a point, however this is not a working economy and the markets are rigged.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:57 | 3737680 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Oil remains the single most fungible source of energy and commodity chemicals.  Both of which you need for a good quality of life.  There is 7+ billion people on the planet (and growing) and they all are competing for a better qualioty of life.  There is plenty of demand.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:39 | 3738430 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Well said. Funny, some people actually think there's a chicken and egg thing with this energy supply, growing population and credit economy.  

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:53 | 3737640 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ivanovich, yes, a key number is total petroleum inventories which has had huge drawdowns lately, 22 million barrels over the past two weeks....

Edit: Part of that is due to the recent masssive flooding in Alberta which played havoc with transportation...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:46 | 3737870 RockRiver
RockRiver's picture

These last two large draws in crude stocks may be an anomalie. Flooding in Canada has shut in some pipes and cut rates in others. These large draws may be largely attributable to that and may "correct" somewhat in coming weeks.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:37 | 3737582 gjp
gjp's picture

And now, as Europe closes, the PM raid begins in earnest.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:01 | 3737699 Skin666
Skin666's picture

2 junks and counting for mentioning Blythe's name.

 

J P Morgue must be paying people to troll ZH on their behalf...

 

Sad

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:26 | 3737504 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Chaos.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:30 | 3737527 ghandi
ghandi's picture

Chaos is coming:

 

 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:32 | 3737538 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Right after panic and frenzy.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:32 | 3737547 ghandi
ghandi's picture

Sorry. Cannot post this image, but here it is:

 

On Thursday, July 18, various areas within DTCC will be participating in the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association sponsored exercies, Quantum Dawn 2, a "simulated "street wide" cyber attack.

 

Read it and weep, or rejoice:

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/07/warning-simulated-street-wi...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:37 | 3737586 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Chaos is coming for sure...

.

But thats not what scares me.

.

It is the Order that 'they' will bring in after - that scares me...

.

Order, out of Chaos.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:31 | 3737808 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Don't put your cart before the horses, and don't over-estimate their ability to do anything other than piss down their leg in an effort to hide their fear. They are humans just like the rest of us, and they will most likely be dead before this is all over.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:02 | 3737700 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Please realize they want to practice for when they pull off the real thing.... and blame it on terrorists. Keep this in mind. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:27 | 3737512 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

WTI above $100 is unsustainable: it will crash an already fragile economy, and (more importantly for the feral hog primary dealers) it will sound the taper alarm for next FOMC.  

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:31 | 3737537 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"fragile economy", wait a minute, that's not consistent with the "recovery" meme the MSM has been pushing.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:15 | 3737753 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

Wait, there are inconsistancies in recovery story?  Shocking!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:34 | 3737555 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

it will crash an already fragile economy

isn't it really about time to crash this economy and get on with what comes next?

25 years of fucking FED games is enough!!  Bring it on!!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:11 | 3738560 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

100 years of fucking FED games is enough!! Bring it on!!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:46 | 3737624 walküre
walküre's picture

If memory serves correct, poster "ekm" has been predicting this since Feb/Mar time frame including the run up and spike in WTI.

This is putting the screws on all CBs and they have to make a move. Default partially, debase substantially and deleverage massively.

RESET is coming

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:30 | 3737812 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It means the Fed will backstop with greater amounts of QE.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:43 | 3738442 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

...which will have growing ineffect and bad effect

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:27 | 3737514 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Everybody's on the edge of their seats, waiting for the Fed minutes and Bernanke to tell them what the market's supposed to do.  Well, except the bond market, which appears to be shitting itself in anticipation of more 'taper talk'.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:28 | 3737517 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

CME WTI margin hike 3, 2, 1.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:30 | 3737529 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Indeed, see my comment below, make margins 100% motherfuckers, bring it!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:36 | 3737575 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I hear ya, but do you really want to bankrupt the Airline industry overnight?

If speculators were driving this, you would see it the roll data, and sorry, but you don't....

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:44 | 3737618 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Frankly I couldn't give a shit less about the airline industry, I haven't flown anywhere myself in over a decade. Let those govt supported frauds collapse I don't really care I have everything I need right here.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:48 | 3737634 walküre
walküre's picture

You're missing all the fun of TSA inspections and other extensive bullshit? Someone give you an airline ticket already. You have to do it at least once before the collapse!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:51 | 3737648 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yet another "Libertarian" who knows whats best for everyone else...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:53 | 3737661 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

and you do?  Sad, I didn't think flak was another fucking hypotcrite.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:04 | 3737717 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I don't claim to be a libertarian....

LoP, I thought your logic was better than that...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:11 | 3737738 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I never said you did.  I thought your reading comphrehension was better than that...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:21 | 3737774 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

I know where SOMEONE belongs....

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y

 

Monty Python, 'Argument Clinic'

 

:*)

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:37 | 3737839 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Thanks.  The last few seconds of that is a perfect demonstration of a parabolic move.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:00 | 3738495 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Ain't that the damn truth. I flew last in 1989 on a 757 or something. the seats had ear phones and music. I put the ear phones on and the first tune I heard was, "American Pie". Can you fucking believe that... and now you have to take off your fucking shoes and pay to take a dump... It amazes me that so many people need to move so fast that they will put up with anything. Like Willie Nelson said, "that shit ain't right".

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:36 | 3738671 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

You can stick a fork in the airline industry as a whole.  My prediction is that within 10 years we'll have one subsidized national airline - if we have any at all.  

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 18:26 | 3739271 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

you remind me of some peak oil lecture and near the end, an audience question caught the prof off guard and then he said, you're right, my grandchild will probably never ride a plane.  When planes first came out only a few select rode them.  

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:32 | 3737543 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe they'll just take this opportunity to let fart gas filled equity bubble collapse and place all the blame on 'the evil oil speculators'...why not?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:29 | 3737522 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

They just can't stuff a HUB like they used too!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:33 | 3737523 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Nice that Ben is speaking in AH.  That way all the bulls get to wake up to a nightmare gap tomorrow.

 

SELL THE BERNANK!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:29 | 3737525 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Crude oil remains the single most dense and fungible source of energy and commodity chemicals on the planet and you need both for a decent quality of life.

Go ahead, make margins 100% motherfuckers, I double dog dare you.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:30 | 3737530 Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture

I sure am glad that my little Honda gets 40 mpg and it's allll paid for. :)

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:34 | 3737554 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

My mountain bike gets infinity miles as long as I can keep the Gatorade flowing....of course Gatorade is about $4 a gallon too though.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:36 | 3737566 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I'd argue that is not true.  The food you ate probably has some "oil" component to it's production.  You and your bike won't go anywhere without the food you ate.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:40 | 3737587 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So what you're tellin me is folks need to eat food? Damn....40 years and had no idea till now!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:58 | 3737684 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Well, then there is bike tire rubber.  Oil.

And bike spare parts for things that break, delivered from the factory via oil.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:12 | 3737742 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

...and made at the factory with - oil.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:52 | 3737901 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Using electricity produced by, among other things, the combustion of fossil fuels, using equipment that was made at another factory where... And run by people who have to get to work using...

We are not just fucked, we are fractally fucked.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:33 | 3737823 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Substantially less oil than it takes to start your automobile though.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 13:00 | 3737942 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea I have a couple sets of new tires and tubes set aside, new Shimano XT drivetrain....technically it should last for many years just on an occasional light spray of lube, and the good bike lubes today are not oil based either so I don't see what the argument against a bicycle is.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 13:07 | 3737992 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I don't understand it either. I ride my SS 29er everywhere I go these days. No issues. I have two sets of wheels with tires and multiple inner tubes for each set for on and off road play.

Compared to my bought and paid for truck, which averages ~20MPG, I spend about $500 less a month now riding than I did when I drove everywhere. That's not even considering how much better I feel with riding everywhere. You can't put a reasonable cost on being healthy.

 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:42 | 3738694 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

The point wasn't that you and everybody else shouldn't get used to a low energy future - I think it was that the argument "why do I care if the POO goes up - I hardly drive" misses the point that unless you live like the Amish - you do expect the lights to go on when you flip the switch and you do eat food hooked up to our interstate highway delivery system, grown with fossil fuel-based fertilizers, etc. etc.

If/when that system breaks down - almost all of us are all going to be in the same very leaky boat.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 17:51 | 3739167 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You think you are spreading some sort of wisdom to the masses here or something?

I will be fine when the system dies, and I still won't care about oil. I know how to generate electricity without oil in my own backyard without expensive and hard to maintain solar panels.

 

 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:31 | 3737531 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

In a discussion with EKM I mentioned this spread trend several weeks back.  This is something that even TPTB are going to struggle with. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:31 | 3737533 WhoMe
WhoMe's picture

As someone pointed out, there has been one crisis after another in Egypt over the last Century and oil delivery has never been disrupted. This is a clear case of speculation and the speculators riding the Egypt unrest worry. So why in the world don't they levy a 90% Capital Gains tax on all oil trades? This would immediately take the speculators out of the game and leave in only the traders who actually will take delivery? This would be such a quick and easy fix to at least remove most of the speculators who have no intention or facilities to ever take delivery.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:33 | 3737550 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A better idea is to simply make margins 100%.  Taxes won't force anyone to take delivery. If you want to buy oil or any commodity you have to take delivery, period.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:38 | 3737593 ekm
ekm's picture

I remember an interview on bloomberg radio in 2008.

CFTC actually enforced 100% margin for few months but it was never published as news

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:57 | 3737681 rqb1
rqb1's picture

You called this.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:41 | 3737603 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

You don't know what you talking about. If you want to treat the symptoms, at least make sure the side-effects are worth it.

If there was anyone really interested in bringing "fair" pricing of oil market, there are a lot of things to do at the fundamental level; starting from the Fed and down to Futures contracts delivery policy.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:46 | 3737623 Bear
Bear's picture

You just described the future for gold ... Those evil gold speculators a 90% tax is so appropriate

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:17 | 3737759 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Egypt is not the cause of this.

Tankers don't have to use the Suez Canal.  They can steam around South Africa to get to Europe.  Might cost an extra 50 cents a barrel.

This is about scarcity.  Not Egypt.  No one will tell you this anywhere but ZH.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:34 | 3737831 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

This has nothing to do with scarcity and everything to do with social engineering and money printing.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:48 | 3737879 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You do realize 2008's super spike was pre QE?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 13:09 | 3738004 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You do realize that the interest rates and essentially free house loans and money being handed out from the housing bubble was the same as QE right?

 

Inflation is Inflation, it doesn't matter where it's at the banks always profit, and they always use it to leverage higher. That is what banks do.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:50 | 3738470 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

you do realize real things matter and the real thing that matters the most and has built most of this society in the last 100 years (and all of its wars in the last 10) is oil. This is not an exclusive exercise. Both events are occuring, both are playing into the cause. As this empire uses more and more real things (and produces less) their books get worse and they mess with them to try and fool themselves and others..    

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 19:16 | 3739483 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Unfortunately the country is not as reliant on oil as you like to think. Plenty of people get by without ever needing an oil product, and I think it's ridiculous to think that the world will end if the price of oil goes higher because of inflation.

 

Sometimes you guys are entirely too fatalistic.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:10 | 3738549 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Speculators have been using, "trouble in the Mid East" to gouge the price of gas as long as I can remember. Of course nothing ever happens except I pay more. Fuckers... I've got You now, I only drive when I want to and the higher the price goes the less I want to. Kill the economy...please.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:32 | 3737540 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Time for Obummer to threaten a release from the SPR. Speaking of his royal pain in the ass highness...where has he been? His handlers sure are keeping him quiet.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:34 | 3737558 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

provided the oil is there of course.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:35 | 3737564 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I believe there is about as much oil in the SPR as there is gold in fort Knox.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:00 | 3737696 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Somewhat not important.

Underground inventory is underground inventory.  Doesn't have to be in the SPR.  It can be in the Gulf of Mexico.  Inventory is inventory.  One may flow a bit slower than the other, but that's inevitable regardless.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:27 | 3737799 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not quite, there will be a significantly higher energetic/captial cost to access one inventory compared to the other. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 14:53 | 3738477 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

you got it. And as inventory draws down, other places will be keeping more for themselves and will be less likely to allow us to have some, save their "democracy" or do any other lie we create.  

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:19 | 3738592 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

I'm sure our military brass will make sure everyone is sharing "their" oil with "us".

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:34 | 3737561 ekm
ekm's picture

It will occur soon

One time shot, maximum damage

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:44 | 3737617 fuu
fuu's picture

Could use some $40 oil about now.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:51 | 3737647 walküre
walküre's picture

Shorting oil in 2008 was a fantastic trade. Not sure if its coming back though. I've been tempted again and again. The big boyz knew when to position their trades accordingly. So far I'm not seeing that. Forget everything else. Oil up or down is what makes the market.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:58 | 3737686 fuu
fuu's picture

Glory days.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:05 | 3737720 walküre
walküre's picture

Never coming back. Like the glorious Fifties. Curves everywhere. Today it's all skin and bones. Women, cars, markets ...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:10 | 3737733 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 All skin and bones? The majority of women I see walking around are all porkers.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:46 | 3737868 shutdown
shutdown's picture

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358472/How-Mexico-got-fat-obese...

 

Look at the bright side:

It could be worse. You could be in Mexico which is even fatter, even more obese then the USA and Canada.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:56 | 3737919 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Repeat after me: poverty is not correlated with diet is not correlated with health.

Easy!

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 13:06 | 3737982 walküre
walküre's picture

Ok, either skin and bones or square like a pop tart and just as much brains.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:16 | 3738581 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

One of the silver linings of the coming collapse is that women will be looking a lot more svelte. ;)

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:11 | 3737740 fuu
fuu's picture

Happy anniversary next month.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:36 | 3737572 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Took the words right out of my fingers. But it's not an election year, so I suspect the SPR will stay bunged up and prices will continue to rise.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:32 | 3737544 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

What happened to all that fracking and shale oil hype from the beginning of the year?   Was all that just for the muppets?

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:55 | 3737608 gjp
gjp's picture

Sure was.  American oil independence, what a joke, and the media sold it no questions asked.  US still imports 10m bpd, nearly half of total consumption.  North Dakota bakken (best of all shale oil fields) might peak at 3m bpd with over $1 trillion invested and rapid decline rates from there.  All while GOM production declines too.  But those are facts, and are not relevant in BennyBux lala land.  Better to spin a happy story so that no-one worries about obscenely wasteful consumption of an essential and finite resource.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 15:43 | 3738700 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I'll eat the head gasket out of an '87 Buick if the Bakken ever gets to 3 mmbpd....

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:34 | 3737556 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

you mean an "average" price of $4.10.   Already at $4.25 in Los Angeles.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:39 | 3737596 Bear
Bear's picture

Go to the OC it's only $4.05 ... I'm here to help

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:34 | 3737557 kito
kito's picture

and i just bought an F-750 xtralong cab....................fully loaded...................v15 engine....................4 mpg!!! bitchin!!!!............i look good even when im pushing it (or trying to)..............................................

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:36 | 3737577 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Lots od obese folks around. Get em to work. Also the tech workers to partake and see what real work is all about.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:48 | 3737635 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

I'm a tech in a semiconductor fab,lot's of cleaning and scrubbing.We are also working 6 night 12 hour shifts,I'm sure its a lot tougher than you would imagine.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:54 | 3737668 walküre
walküre's picture

I'm a tech in a semiconductor fab, lot's of cleaning and scrubbing.

You're obviously a cleaning technician. Fancy title for janitor. At least you got a job.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:51 | 3737894 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You have to be trolling....

It is the only explanation...

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:40 | 3737598 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

you needed to buy the hybrid version...batteries get as hot as the surface of Venus

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:45 | 3737621 kito
kito's picture

i was debating the hybrid version.....for only 20 grand more, i could have upped my mpg by 50%!!!!!! i wouldve gotten 6mpg!!!! but alas, tough call.....but i opted out.................................

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:47 | 3737630 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

plus less of the "cool factor" w/hybrid

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:43 | 3737612 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

gotta give hybrid, electric, tesla, toyota, volt etc etc......one.......more.......chance........to survive

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:51 | 3737644 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That route will get super expensive with the new EPA guidelines that Obama wants.  Electricity rates will rise as the LMP from green generation is about $70/MWh. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:56 | 3737917 Flakmeister
Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:49 | 3737637 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I will punch anyone in the face that complains to me about gas prices while they fill up their 10mpg SUV's. 

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 11:59 | 3737691 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Ditto...but that's what you end up with.

Anyone who was an idiot and bought a big SUV etc knew what they were doing. They knew that gas prices could go up again, so if they were foolish enough to buy something that costs 27 - 30 cents per mile to push down the road in fuel costs alone then they need not complain about the price of gasoline since obviously they're wealthy enough to drive these things.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:13 | 3737748 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Whew! had me worried for a minute.

Luckily my 1-ton extended cab Diesel Duelly, and my Hemi-Challenger both get 20-22 mpg.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:26 | 3737794 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Sounds like the mature voice of a true intellectual. First, none of your business. Second, some of us actually need such vehicles. Third, you don't seem to mind posting inane thoughts here whilst wasting valuable electrons that I could have used at a cheaper price had you not driven the cost up.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:43 | 3737857 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

First, you make it my business when you're complaining to me.  Second, if you cannot afford to fill it up, you do not "need" it.  Third, LMP's are quite low comapred to historical, so quit your bitchin' and get to work.

Wed, 07/10/2013 - 12:54 | 3737903 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Uh, When did I complain to you? I can afford to fill it up. If I don't, I don't make money or have fun. As for "bitchin'", I don't have time or the need to. I sold my UCO that I had been holding forever on Friday. Only thing I don't like is that I sold it too soon. But heh, I'll live... Gotta go- I need to get the battery back in my boat so that we can use it tomorrow. (also gas powered) 

-1 for stupid assumptions

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!