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Consumer Confidence Misses For First Time In 2013

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In an odd reversal of recent trends, the future expectations sub-index of the UMich consumer confidence survey fell (lowest in 3 months) as the current rose notably (to its highest in 6 years). Is hope fading? Perhaps it is the spike in gas prices? Or the spike in mortgage rates? Critically though, this is the first miss of expectations since December 2012 as inflation expectations also surged to the highs of the year.

 

 

as a reminder, we have seen this pattern before...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:08 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Yeah, this should worry the markets. Better get more ammo.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment blown income
blown income's picture

I am confident I will be broke before it ends

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I support that strategy.  I'll enjoy my assets before they strip them from my cold, dead hands.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I never get a fuckin call from the people who runs these stupid numbers...coz if I did, I would tell them everything is in the gutter and going to hell.

Obviously, this figure is biased because a ton of homeless people in Michigan cant afford to pay for a phone....

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Incorrect, if they are on welfare, they can have Obama phones.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

There's the problem, right there. Maybe you're the smartest guy in the world.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:37 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Let me be clear, humanity isn't just another unsustainable ponzi, it's the unsustainable ponzi.

Same as it ever was...

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Nah Rex, I'm just a smartass this morning.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

That's why I think a lot of the generation now who are 18-35 are so in tune with what's wrong with America; they aren't (for the most part) bought off like our Boomers (either by entitlements or their much better pay).

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Boomer's are money hungry. I'm glad my family ([extended] two Boomer's included) stuck with ethics and morals rather than chasing the all mighty dollar.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

They have to be money hungry.  Have you seen how much they owe the government per capita?

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Oh yea S&P 2000 today on that.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Who cares - market's surely do not. Only when this manufactured number is good?

When not so they just move on - algos are only programmed to read positive headlines

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment salimmk
salimmk's picture

Do the trading robots read this headline?

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment nickels
nickels's picture

For perspective, the UMich survey raison d'etre-CNBC reported on 12 June 2013 that the University of Michigan provides Thompson Reuters news service with the data early, so that Reuters can release the CSI to select, paying clients at 9:55 am, five minutes before it releases the data to the general public on its web site at 10:00 am. In addition, Reuters releases the data via high speed communication channels to select clients two seconds earlier at 9:54:58 am. CNBC revealed that trading activity increases dramatically within milliseconds of 9:54:58. Traders who subscribe to either service and are able to take advantage of the CSI before the university releases it to the public. FormerSecurities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt opined that this might present a fairness issue and destroy confidence in the market by the public.[2]

The University of Michigan states it receives about a million dollars a year from Reuters for this advance information, but said it couldn't do the research without the Reuters payment.[2]--from wikipedia.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

America is just a dumb fucking country. 

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

The funny money orgy is full on now, with AMZN the poster boy.

UPS misses, consumer confidence down, haven't met expectations in 2 years?  Already up massively this year and in the last week?  Well, why not tack on another 2% then?

Please let it end soon.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Don't forget higher gas prices, PPI and rising mortage rates.

 

Someone must have slapped me with a leprechaun shillelagh dipped in unicorn piss and blessed by a fairy godmother for things to be this bullish.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:31 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Idiocracy'....the best thing I can think of to fully explain what's going on today. We're out of burrito toppings, but we got this guy 'Not Sure' he's gonna fix it! We're gonna put water on the plants....you know...from out the terlit.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

All I want to know is what time next week The Ben (dover) Doctor Bernanke is speaking so, I could cover my shorts first.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Oh noes!  Mr. Hudson is on suicide watch.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment CashCowEquity
CashCowEquity's picture

Confidence in fiat= down

Confidence in Precious Metals= up

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This should help make people feel better...BIG Dyke Sis to Resign:

 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/napolitano-resign_739290.html

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Cheeseus Sonofdog
Cheeseus Sonofdog's picture

But I thought she was loyal because she only cared about helping America?

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

She must've said something about something she saw!

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Cheeseus Sonofdog
Cheeseus Sonofdog's picture

Its the stagflation, stupid.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What in the FUCK?? How can the consumer not be overflowing with confidence?

Haven't they seen da STAWKS??

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment brady
brady's picture

GO BLUE!

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

     ...sorry, can't talk now, gotta go buy moar ag....the physical type!!

 

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'm completing a solid 3 month supply of Mountain House freeze dried food.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

hmmm. "banks aren't lending." hmmmm.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:24 | Link to Comment slimething
slimething's picture

Throwing away all those unsecured pre-approved credit card applications may have been a mistake.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Are these the same consumers with record high food stamp usage and debt? - "winning"

fucking idiots.

Let me be clear, humanity isn't just another ponzi, it's the ponzi.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

According to CIBC World Markets:

The world remains a place where enormous amounts of debt just keep stacking up. Paying this debt back is constantly believed to be less of an issue given the crucial assumption that economic growth rates in the order of 3% to 5% will return AND will be sustainable. Even if it does, it must be noted that “total payback” of the debt could be unlikely to ever be achieved. At some US$18 trillion of total debt in the U.S., it would take 14,400 million ounces of gold or some 160 years’ worth of annual global gold mined supply (at the current price of some US$1,240/oz. and at current global output of some 2,800 tonnes per annum) to pay this down. At the same time, gold production is about to take an almighty knock and we won’t be surprised to see as much as 25% less gold output in the next five years.

Still, much of this precarious (let’s just stop the debt load from growing) position is critically dependant on very low interest rates being maintained – once rates start moving higher, debt repayment schedules quickly blow out, while the value of bonds, in particular government bonds, starts to decline. The current dramatic decline in the value of government bonds will already see banks’ balance sheets shrinking again, with possible resultant liquidity squeezes across the globe. Euro sovereign debt costs are already up dramatically and Italy is seemingly also sitting with an apparent +30 billion euro loss in the derivatives market…

This could very quickly turn out to be a very bad scenario, but the point, as far as we are concerned, is really that it does not even need to get to this for the markets to start realizing that currencies will have to depreciate much further – we believe this to be a crucial mechanism for delivering lower sovereign debt levels long term. Gold will be the currency that continues to benefit in the longer term. So, making a positive case for the gold price is not too difficult – particularly if inflation becomes a problem much sooner than everybody currently expects.

The real problem, unfortunately, is that all of this argument is dependant on data that will only become apparent much later down the line. Right now, nobody is willing to go against the Fed. That simply means bonds and gold are both getting the “chop” because the Fed is signaling a return to stronger economic growth – leading to a stronger U.S. dollar.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Slim
Slim's picture

Simple volatility.  Mostly in the equity market.  It's awakened the underlying lack of confidence.  No one really thinks things are great but if stocks and homes are at least trending up it seems to placate.  Now that we have risen unnaturally fast due to central banker's iron fist mandate trumping free market, people are a little worried and concerned when the foundation starts to rumble because they wonder exactly how solid said foundation is based on previous experience (2008).

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Probably more due to 'da consumers' credit cards being maxed out and it's more difficult to roll up on 7-11 and snap into a Slim Jim.

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    is this "Cheesedick" day on CNBS? First that assclown Dimon is on, and now that assmaster Bawney Frank is on. I almost threw up my breakfast before I could turn the station!  Why in the hell are the equity markets up? Isn't the Bernanke put priced in yet, for fucks sake?

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Come on and double QE Bubble Bernanke, Evans, Dudley, Fisher and Yellen!

We are all waiting for your following of the Zimbabwe economic path.

It's your next twisted Keynesian move. While impoverishing the rest of the world and the 99%.

Just a matter of time.

 

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 11:12 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

if consumer confidence was polled on  by zerohedgers, it would be at fucking 0.

 

whoever the fuck they poll must have no fucking idea what is about to happen.

 

then again, wasn't consumer confidence at an all time high before the crisis in 08-09?

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Did the stats manipulators all call in sick on the same day?

Fri, 07/12/2013 - 11:43 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

No POMO on monday and tuesday............ Let me guess, Japan central bank will lower rates or print another trillion to save Bens ass. Total BS! When the shit goes down you better be ready.( Cypris Hill)

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