JPMorgan Slashes Q2 GDP By Half To 1%

Tyler Durden's picture

Following closely on the heels of Barclays significant downgrade, JPMorgan has cut its forecast for second-quarter GDP by 50% to a mere 1% growth (from their previous 2% expectation). Citing downside surprises to inventories, they note that "Fed officials won't be thrilled about easing back on stimulus in September in the face of back-to-back one-handles on GDP growth." Have no fear tyhough, as the rest of the year prmises to hockey-stick right back up to 2.5% (and 2.7% in 2014).

 

Via JPMorgan,

We are revising down our estimate for Q2 real annualized GDP growth from 2.0% to 1.0%, and revising up our projection for Q3 growth from 2.0% to 2.5%. We came into this week tracking a little light on our second quarter estimate, and the large downside surprise to May wholesale inventories moved that estimate much lower. Inventory accumulation was running light in Q1, and we had expected a significant contribution to Q2 growth from a rebuilding of stockpiles.

In the event, it now looks like inventories will be neutral for Q2 growth. Less stockbuilding in Q2 should imply a greater need to increase production in Q3, and our upward revision to current quarter growth is entirely due to a revised estimate of the inventory contribution; our estimate for Q3 domestic final sales is unrevised at 2.3%.  This revision mostly reflects a temporal reallocation of growth, though on net our 2013 Q4/Q4 forecast has been nudged lower from 2.1% to 1.9%.

If our revised estimate is right, Fed officials won't be thrilled about easing back on stimulus in September in the face of back-to-back one-handles on GDP growth. Even so, we believe the FOMC remains more focused on the labor market, which has been performing well in spite of weak GDP, and will move ahead this fall with a scaling back of asset purchases.

 

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Cursive's picture

Yeah, that labor market is el feugo!  Whatever.

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Cult_of_Reason's picture

What do you mean slashes GDP by half? Jamie Dimon just said US economy is smoking hot.

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BalanceOrBust's picture

So let me get this straight.

If JPM is right (a whopping big if) and we really can get 1% growth (their optimism astounds me), then that is not bad.

Well, then again, it is not as good as it should be given that the Fed could be contributing 6% to GDP through its bond purchases alone ($85 billion a month).

Hmmm.... Where does all that money go?

Cult_of_Reason's picture

Where does all that money go?

It goes to the banks and hedge funds to lever up (Bernanke got your back if anything goes wrong) and mark up the stock market.

Obchelli's picture

It's great Now it's so much easier to beat this number 1.1% will cause 500 point rally in dow - as we beat "EXPECTATIONS".

 

So sick of this BS by know when does this crap break. 

I always wonder how people as bad as Obama has so much luck in life - such a fragile economy never gave any crack during his 5 years and looks like it won't another 3

Silveramada's picture

that means GDP - 2-4% inflation adjusted...

Divided States of America's picture

This means no tapering..aka bullish...'ramp the markets' time!

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SheepDog-One's picture

Wait but JPM just yesterday said 'Taper-on by Sept'.....oh wait I forgot it's all 'good cop/bad cop' routine from here on out.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Regarding 2.5% Q3 and Q4, the DoD Sequester furloughs didn't even START until Q3, early July.

qqqqtrader's picture

The furloughs are bullsh1t! I work with many that are being furloughed and they work overtime to make up for the lost hours [productivity]. Do ya really think 99% of what the govt. controls is cost effective?

Cursive's picture

@SDO

Mentally, when I think about the tapering, I feel like a whirling dervish.  On the one hand, there's this TBAC limited collateral issue, on the other, the flow-versus-stock issue.  No doubt BernanQE WANTS to keep up the purchases, but can he?  All jokes aside about toilet paper, belly lint and toe jam, it's not like that would work unless someone heavily re-ignited the CDO market.

Divided States of America's picture

Yup....like what Bernanke did from the Q&A's.....just keep two timing everyone because theres no accountability in the system. Anyways, hes off the hook by August...dont think Summers want the job because the train is too close to the cliff

asteroids's picture

Notice they published this little gem after they reported resuilts this morning.

McMolotov's picture

We need MOAR. Good thing Uncle Ben's QE machine goes to 11.

Temporalist's picture

Sharing this again:

Chase Made Errors in Nine Percent of Credit-Card Collection Lawsuits, Internal Survey Finds

 

By Matt Taibbi

POSTED:

A piece in the Wall Street Journal dug up yet another damning fact about Jamie Dimon's J.P. Morgan Chase. This time, reporters got hold of an internal bank survey of its credit-card collections suits. It turns out that Chase's own survey found that huge numbers of lawsuits filed by the bank contained errors.

From the article:

The bank studied roughly 1,000 lawsuits and found mistakes in 9% of the cases, said people familiar with the review.

"Any rate above zero is high," said one person familiar with the bank's conversations with regulators.

Thirteen states, as well as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a primary banking regulator, are investigating Chase's insanely sloppy practices in the area of credit-card collections."

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/chase-made-errors-in...

Monedas's picture

An error is when you name the wrong defendant .... not robosigning !  If you are offended by robosigning .... ask the officer of the bank to resign it or initial the robosignature !  WTF pays off unsecured debt anyway ?

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Matt should probably check under his car every morning.  Just sayin'

Cursive's picture

@Helluva Engineer

What timing.  At a party last night, just in regular conversation with the piano player who was on break, he tells me his grandfather used to be a newspaper editor and ran stories about, and I quote, "central bankers."  He believed his grandfather's untimely death in 1964 was because he was trying to expose "central bankers."  I work with a lot of bankers, financial types and lawyers and I rarely, if ever, hear any of these people used the term "central bankers."  Well, he definitely got my attention. Didn't get a chance to ask if he read ZH.

Badabing's picture

So were growing half the corn we produced last year?

That’s all we produce these days

Dr. Engali's picture

Damn we sure are getting a bang for our buck with the trillions the Bernank is printing....er crediting. Way to go Ben.we need moar!

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep! And the funny part is no one is even considering at all the bill for all this is going to arrive soon! In the meantime, let me get another gallon of those free martinis please! YAY!

SheepDog-One's picture

WHOA! Stage is now definitely set for S&P 2,000 by Sept!!

fonzannoon's picture

oil has been climbing with the dollar so it would make sense that they up QE based on this and wreck the dollar to knock oil down.

ass backwards world....

SheepDog-One's picture

Must....Get...Texas Tea.....Down.....Must. Destroy. World......

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Might be useful to recall that 0.5% of those Q3 and Q4 estimates are from the redefinition of GDP.

Whoa Dammit's picture

And the numbers has to be fudged to get their GDP estimates out of the negative range and up to a whopping 1%. Their 2.5% 3rd quarter GDP progections must be based solely on higher prices due to moar QE.

SheepDog-One's picture

Writing a book from last page to first now.

ebworthen's picture

If GDP included FED jawboning it would be at 7%.

Real GDP is probably -1%, -5%/yoy for most households.

yogibear's picture

More and more QE money for the banksters to buy equities. 

Inflate the equity bubble big time. Drop the US dollar more.

 

Dr. Engali's picture

The labor market has been performing well? WTFever! Part time U.S.A.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Labor market performing well' = GET BACK ON THOSE PART TIME OARS AND ROW HARDER YOU FUCKING PEASANTS!!

ParkAveFlasher's picture

I hear Obama's Labor Secretary just stepped down, to be replaced by a sweaty guy beating a drum slowly. 

lakecity55's picture

the beach boys:

serfing usa!

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

In the NEW economy, GDP does not affect earnings ...

Apparently, neither GDP nor realism on earnings affects markets.

As in the Highlander, there can be only ONE.

The CHAIRMAN is the ONE.

True dat.

Bernankaphoria.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Remember, earnings are not earnings.  They are earnings per share.

Those share buybacks shrink the denominator and make EPS look better even if no improvement to the numerator takes place.

The buybacks are funded by 0% short term debt and rolled over when redeemed.

The whole world is insane and this is all bullshit.

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Just reviewed a fund manager survey, where biggest thing that managers wanted to see was increased capex. Despite this, managers thought payout ratios were proper.

How do you increase capex if you are paying out dividends and taking on debt to buy back more stock to boot?

The contradiction is similar to having your cake and eating it too.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Good cop/bad cop' all day from here on out!

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Weakening GDP allows for Taper, so that the market buys bonds, and can sell some stocks out of all time highs. No harm, no fowl and yields will "taper" in.

Funny that the word "taper" is unique to English, the noun meaning candle, the verb meaning to diminish. Some etymologists think that the word may stem from "papyrus", which of course was a proto form of paper. Papyrus was used for the wick of the candle. To taper is to burn down.

The moral to this long winded intro? The Fed is burning down the house by printing more paper and then letting it burn out.

Same as it ever was.

yogibear's picture

With all the backstopping and juicing inflation of assets shopuld be flowing heavily into everything. And it is.

Yen Cross's picture

   Bond yields down, dollar up, market up. Central bank musical chairs...Hey everyone lets pile into U.S. bonds and equity markets.