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China's Goal(seek)dilocks: GDP "Just Right"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Despite the Schrodinger PMIs that the nation continues to pump-out in less and less transparent nature, and the leadership's seeming desire to use the early years to 'soft-land' the bubble-economy created by their predecessors, it seems the most recent trade data (disappointment) was more an indication of reality (along with the recent jawboning) than the hopes of so many talking-heads in the West. GDP met lowered expectations of 7.5% YoY (but is down from last month's and lowest since Sep12), Industrial Production missed expectations for the 4th month in a row (8.9% vs 9.1% YoY expectations) at its lowest since April 2009, and Retail Sales beat expectations by the most in 9 months! Of course, the 'goldilocks' will be seen as instantly indicative of either 'all is well with global growth so don't sweat it' or of a need for an avalanche of stimulus to save the world, but as we noted here, China is way past the point of worrying about a few percentage points of GDP. AUD popped higher before the data and leaked back on the goldilocks reality; S&P futures testing spike highs from Friday; and gold pressing higher to $1295.

 

 

One more for fun - China Fixed Asset Investment YoY missed expectations by a smidge printing at its lowest on record...

 

Yay - new S&P highs...


 

Seems like something for everyone as usual...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:23 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Madoff's gone but Ponzi schemes go on...

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:26 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

He's applying for release now with the aquittal of the Citi guy last week for a similar scheme using gov't funds and a real estate market.  Lots of old school financial crooks are now about to move uptown again because of it.  

See their old friends that put them there.  Cuddle up, talk of old times and cell space premiums.  I'm positive that we'll all see the water fill with the old school sharks that stole better than their friends very, very soon.

 

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:37 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

and the protests move into a higher gear

Protesters Shut Down 10 Freeway in LA

LAPD using rubber bullets

 

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Protesters-Shut-Down-10-Freeway-...

(if only they would show as much passion for the 30 or so murders in Chicago so far this month)

 

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"The mob was cleared from the roadway by about 7 p.m., when LAPD officers began firing rubber bullets, protesters said."

"LAPD officials did not immediately respond to media inquiries to confirm the use of rubber bullets."

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Protesters-Shut-Down-10-Freeway-...

 

 

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:00 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Frankly, who gives a fuck?

And in other news..... did anyone ask the protesters what they would like to see happen next (other than breaking shit to show they are vaguely upset)?  Would they like to drag GZ out into the street and cut him into bacon slices (probably)?  Would they like to see him brought up on new charges (which WILL happen, I assure you)?

Oh, wait, I get it.  Let's DO SOMETHING.  Let's do it FAST, before anyone can debate it.  Probably involving "gun control" (whateverthefuck that means) and definitely involving new taxes and gradual surrender of more Constitutional liberties. 

Problem is, Obama is REALLY BUSY with other shit right now.  I know it sucks, but he CARES, dude.  He REALLY cares about you.  That should give you some comfort just knowing it's on his to-do list.  So.... take a number.  Somebody will be back to you..... eventually. 

Mon, 07/15/2013 - 00:26 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

they're lucky those trigger-happy jackbooted swine didn't go straight to the .223/5.56.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

This release just proves that, just like the BLS, Chinese authorities too use excel.    Can't trust anyone's numbers, they're all political fodder now. 

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The manipulation continues..

 

http://schiffblog.blogspot.ca/

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:23 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

It's going to shit the bed unless they print.  Which they will of course.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:57 | Link to Comment erg
erg's picture

The world economy barfing paper all over itself.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

just set the dial where you need it

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

It's all excellent AND collapsing, the new global economic paradigm.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:26 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Another Conspiracy Theory becomes Conspiracy Fact.
The data is once again proven manipulated, managed, mangled, bent, borrowed, manufactured and scripted before redacted, tested and finally released.
Whadda crock-o'-shite

 

No way any of this data is realistic... by their very own admission.
So let's watch all the talking heads talk about their forecast, the variance to the release when in fact its like talking about the US reality versus (what no fucking) budget.

It's all chimera, smoke, mirrors and lied, damned lies.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:28 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Imagine all those pension funds that bought into the 'miracle'.  

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:40 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Oh yes, that Asian Growth Engine Meme.
Founded upon some truth about demographics, but then manipulated, dressed like a bunch of whores for the drunken buyers.

This whole thing is Fucking Ludicrous.

For a start, it's bloody well nigh impossible to measure an economy so large, vast and in many respects, yet undeveloped what with lack of integrated electronic reporting, lifestyles, off/black markets, confusion, cooking of books, fraud, etc.

It just doesn't work.
So then everybody investors, brokers and sooth sayer economists and strategists take their forecast and compares it to the imaginary release to initiate their fundamental Graham and Dodd analysis of the numbers.

Ludicrous.

Seriously mad as in need of serious professional mental help

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:43 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Metal Health?  Bang Your Head

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_1ruZWJigo

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:26 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Sum Ting Wong

Ho Li Fuk

Wi Tu Lo

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:33 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

ramp those futures you cunts

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment sphindog
sphindog's picture

Why am I wasting so much of my time following every one of these data points??? I should know by now that the market is going which ever way the boys want it to go. Yet I still stay up late to follow these "events." Call it a sick fascination, I suppose.

Oh well...looks like my puts will get even more buried tomorrow!

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:38 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Apply some creative juices to that sick fascination and call in sick.

That's what I'm doing.

Knuks?
Yeah, Knuks.
I'm not feeling well, Knuks
That's OK Knuks
Think I'll take the day off, Knuks
Good Idea Knuks, we don't want you to catch what you have.

Grand

Almost as solid as Chinese data releases.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:35 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

event driven risk is fast becoming event driven reward. hmmm. "who's the driver" i ask cuz it seems like we've got a lot more being manipulated that just mere markets at this point. i mean is it me or are otherwise Very Important People suddenly going full retard here.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:37 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

u think futures are high now?

 

wait till another one of our corrupt banks reports tomorrow morning before the opening bell, none other than citibank. i am sure they will report terrific and honest numbers, showing the banking system is just totally fine, and that should be good enough for 10-15 pts on the s&p tomorrow.

 

 

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:43 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Just want everybody to remember that for months on end now, we've not dealt with hard data running, moving these markets.  Been rumors, pronouncements, pabulum and blather by senior whomevers about odd stuff that in more normal times would be side shows.

Fucked it is, fucked I say....

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:47 | Link to Comment HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

After five years of this pump, We all have pretty much come to accept it, but one morning there is going to be an event that will unravel things in spectacular fashion. Think about it, those of you who passed Algebra, this, too, shall end. And TPTB are forcing a spectacular Grand Finale...

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

China's GDP figures are "man-made" and therefore unreliable, the man who is expected to be the country's next head of government said in 2007, according to U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/06/us-china-economy-wikileaks-idU...

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:50 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

LOL beautiful vertical ramp of the ASX200, with brief headfake, justified by this reassuring-and-just-right data

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/marketWatch.do?asxCode=XJO&popup=true

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:50 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

More Chinese quality sold to the cow-eyed banksters.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 22:57 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Same Fed game plan, just written in Mandarin Chinese.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I’ll bet Soros all the money he has. Our Atmosphere is collapsing. Ask him about geo-engineering monies to stop this phenomenon. Meanwhile, the sun hasn’t kicked in. Carbon credited will save our world. Unfortunately, the credits don’t control the SUN.

4MIN News July 14, 2013: NASA Data - Ice Age Discourse

 

I’ll bet that after [12] X solar flares, the atmosphere will cure itself. Want to take me up on this bet Mr. Soros? Don’t be a cunt rag by having your trolls answer. Be an adult. Answer!

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:16 | Link to Comment Saving Peace
Saving Peace's picture

As of this moment there's some Gold liquidation going on, dropped $3 in 1 min. Nikkei unflinched, up even.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:32 | Link to Comment ChaosEquilibrium
ChaosEquilibrium's picture

NIKKEI is closed today.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Saving Peace
Saving Peace's picture

According to my feed it's open and tradable, up 0.59% on the day now, around 100 points ramp thanks to the Chinese data out, currently at 14610 by the way.

Mon, 07/15/2013 - 00:05 | Link to Comment eXMachina
eXMachina's picture

WTI doesn't seem amused!

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I think lower GDP in China is better (for everyone, but especially China).

But I'm a Pettis fan, so whatcha gonna do...

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:54 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323899704578587303796843468.html

The Federal Reserve's liquidity operations during the 2008 financial panic represented good central banking: providing loans when markets freeze up. But instead of simply letting those programs expire as the panic subsided, the Fed embarked on its first quantitative easing program (QE1)—large-scale purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys—trying to stimulate the housing market and the economy.

After that, I warned on these pages in September 2010 about the dangers of "another large dose of quantitative easing" that would raise "more uncertainty about how it will ever be unwound."

Since then the Fed has injected two more massive doses of quantitative easing: QE2 starting in November 2010 and QE3 starting late last year. Then, last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke let it be known in a news conference that the old QE3 (purchasing $85 billion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities a month until labor market conditions improve substantially) would taper into a new QE3—in which purchases would likely slow by the end of 2013 and stop in the middle of 2014. The turbulent reaction in the markets showed that the predicted dangers from unwinding would be real.

The Fed has justified its policies as a means of helping the economy recover. Yet economic growth has come in at less than half what the Fed predicted with all its unprecedented interventions during the past four years, and growth remains under 2% so far this year. Some at the Fed blame other factors for this terribly weak recovery—the latest excuse being cuts in state and local government purchases. But those cuts are the result not the cause of the weak economy as tax revenues have slowed.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-14/should-fed-s-policies-rule-the-world-.html

Up to 60 percent of global transactions are conducted in U.S. dollars, more than one-third of world economic output is produced in dollar bloc economies, and an even greater share of global assets are priced in the currency, or linked currencies. This role as the de facto global currency for more than six decades has made the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy one of the U.S.’s greatest exports.

As we have observed recently in southern Europe, or in Asia during the 1997 financial crisis, importing monetary policy can be dangerous. It is surprising then that the Fed’s dominance hasn’t caused even deeper problems over the decades.

The relative lack of trouble may be because, for the bulk of the past 60 years, the U.S. has been the world’s largest economy, and other mature economies have accounted for the much of the rest of global output. This has meant that monetary policy settings in the U.S. have usually been in tune with the global cycle. An acceleration of U.S. growth was likely to be mirrored in similar economies, or the better conditions in the U.S. were pulling along the rest of the world through enhanced trade links.

But this is changing.

The U.S.’ diminishing contribution to global growth means that economic cycles around the world are becoming both less synchronized and more divergent. As a result, Fed policies are proving increasingly inappropriate for most of the rest of the world.

Sun, 07/14/2013 - 23:59 | Link to Comment polo007
polo007's picture

 

http://rt.com/op-edge/bernanke-fed-intervention-breakdown-151/

The financial markets were convulsed last week at mere hints the Fed is seeking to kick its $85 billion per month intervention addiction...

If somebody in your household believes in the tooth fairy myth of buying used molars for cash, then you either have a toddler or you’re living with a banker. For many members of the financial firmament who equate the ‘real economy’ with paying their au pair, the past week brought a whole new word to the lexicon which has struck fear into investors’ hearts.

“Tapering” was part of a whispered Fed message that sometime, maybe in the fall, they will start reducing the $85 billion they “Quantitatively Ease” into the US financial system monthly. Given that this money tends to be used to help bankers profit from trading and rarely reaches the real economy, the average citizen yawned. However this 'sotto voce' hint that the crazy fantasy world of easy money could end induced panic amongst dealers. Grown men wept at 10 year Treasury notes yielding a giddy 2.34%. World Markets turned ugly.

Bankers have become so addicted to this tooth fairy-style stimulus that even hinting the party punch bowls might be refilled more slowly provoked an instant attack of trader 'delirium tremens'.

Admittedly to explain the situation, the Fed had to relax their grip pushing the bankers’ heads into said punch bowls for just long enough to let the message sink: this isn’t the end...but last orders could be coming...next summer!

Nobody has actually called last orders, nor has the music stopped at this mammoth party but the markets felt the same terror as children threatened with confiscation of their security blanket. Every month Ben Bernanke buys 85 billion dollars worth of mortgages/bonds/IOUs/old heavy metal albums from banks to grease the wheels of the economy. Instead it just lubricates the banks. Entrepreneurs and small businesses rarely get helped: hence the real economy is moving towards peer to peer lending and crowd funding.

Bankers have grown complacent as the Fed nonchalantly concludes the equivalent of several Eurozone bailouts weekly. The “Bernanke put” as this reckless spending spree has been termed has skewed markets.

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