Stocks Close At Another All-Time High On Lowest Volume Day Of Year

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Thank to Boeing's 'recovery' - since there was no fire today - the Dow gained 20 points (of which 29 points were Boeing). The S&P managed new closing all-time highs on the lowest non-holiday volume day of the year. Bonds were well bid early in following the bad-is-better retail sales print (-7bps from early high yields). Commodities were leaking lower into the early macro data but as soon as it was confirmed that the US consumer is tapped out - gold, silver, copper, and WTI all started to surge higher. Homebuilders notably underperformed, Utilities significantly outperformed with the rest treading water. Early USD strength (on ripping JPY weakness) was removed rapidly following the 'yes, the US economy is dismal' confirming data and the slide continued all day - leaving the USD practically unchanged by the close. This is the 14th up-day in a row for the Nasdaq (longest streak since May 1990), the Russell is over 15% above its 200DMA (a multi-year record), and volume has cratered in the last 14 days.

 

On the morning on May 22nd, the S&P 500 managed to surge all the way back up to its six-month up-trend channel. Soon after the market gave up recent gains and dropped its most in months as Taper talk began to worry investors. The last two weeks (with 13 up-days of the last 14) have remedied that and now, thanks to today's volumeless limp higher, the S&P 500 futures traded with in a tick of the previous highs of 1679.75...

S&P 500 Futures just breached their all-time high intraday... (but remains notably below the up-trend channel based on trade-based intervals - not time)...

 

and just look at volume as we push higher...

 

S&P 500 Cash index has reached the lower-end of the up-trend channel (based on time) with a remarkable run of 13 of the last 14 days rises...

 

The critical difference between the two trends is indicative of the trading volume differences - one is purely time oriented (lower) which is typically the human's perspective (and we are back at trend) and the upper chart reflects actual trading activity (what the algos care about) and obviously we are well below the 'trend'. Today was the lowest non-holiday trading day of the year 0 in fact going back a long way...

 

Quite an interesting divergence in sector performance today...

 

Commodities sold off into the dismal data and then surged with WTI closing back above $106.50...

 

Bonds sold off into the data then collapsed on the terrible data

 

FX markets too...

 

This is the market we trade in... Chinese GDP took some of the punhcbowl away and so bonds and commodities limped lower... then when a dismal miss in a critical piece of data can impact each and every market data point and send stocks to new highs (along with Fwd P/Es to scary heights for smaller cap exuberants) - Via Yardeni

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: Oil prices in terms of gold have reached their highest since Lehman and what appears like a crucial threshold...

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