Beware The Ides Of Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony

Maybe its a moment of Raghuram Rajan-like clarity facing his supposed bosses - or maybe its a need to discipline the ever-present fiscal profligacy but, it seems something happens that on average gives stocks (and other risk-on related asset classes) a seasonal affected disorder following the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony.

In the very short-term, on average, the S&P 500 has fallen in the 3 weeks following the H-H testimony by 1.5% and in fact has been the scene of some of the largest declines in the last decade or more...

and in context, it would appear the S&P's major seasonal shifts are predicated around this date (based on the last 30 years of S&P 500 data)...

but it's not just stocks. Across all asset classes, including notably USDJPY - today's carry-trade funding risk-on vehicle of choice, the tone of performance on the actual day of the speech tends to be less than exuberant (aside from that is the Feb 09 explosion in the S&P)...

Charts: Bloomberg and SocGen