Doubling Down On All-In: Spot The (Somewhat) Odd One Out
Today's broad "rewriting of history" GDP revision is set to "boost" US GDP by about 3% cumulatively (or about the size of Belgium's economy) and shave off 1-2% from US GDP. That's great. For the sake of the world, however, we hope that the rest of the developed (and less than developed) world's countries promptly follow in America's footsteps and fudge their own numbers post haste because things are rapidly getting out of hand, as the following chart conveniently reminds. Nowhere is this more so than in Japan, where as has been the case now for almost a year, Goldman Sachs, the central bank and local government (in order of decisionmaking importance) have all doubled down on their "all in" bet that the only thing that fixes recorder debt is moar recordest debt.
Spot the (somewhat) odd one out:
As the WSJ laconically observes:
The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is engaged in a high-stakes gamble to escape a cycle of paltry growth and falling prices using a combination of government spending, easy money and an ambitious overhaul of Japan's hidebound economy.
If so-called Abenomics succeeds, then the world's third-biggest economy could re-emerge as a major engine of growth at a time when Europe is stagnant and China is slowing. If it fails, then Japan's Mount Fuji of government debt could come tumbling down, sending shock waves through the global economy.
"It definitely has the potential to be a huge shock," says Michael Manetta, a senior economist at Roubini Global Economics. "In terms of the behavior of capital markets, it would probably be similar to what we saw after [the collapse of] Lehman" Brothers.
Since we've said all there is to say about that, we will redirect readers to the WSJ's rehash and simply add: good luck.
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