China 'Officially' Admits PMI Data Inaccurate
Over six weeks ago we first noted that there were problems with the industry-specific data underlying the Chinese PMI numbers when we added that "the random disappearance of data was disorienting." Fast-forward to last week and the greater-than-50 PMI print heard around the world, which provided just enough momentum ignition to warrant more optimism in world equity markets that the second-half of the year would indeed prove to be a mythical renaissance. Well, it turns out that China's official National Bureau of Statistics has admitted that "we can’t ensure all industry-specific data can reach accuracy requirements," adding that they "were concerned that some of the numbers may affect related investors and users." Translation - the data in some industries was so bad that by telling the truth, our data would have become viciously self-fulfilling for their demise. The Juncker-rule is alive and well...
China suspended the release of industry-specific data from a purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing because of accuracy concerns, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
“We can’t ensure all industry-specific data can reach accuracy requirements,” Sheng Laiyun, a statistics agency official, said at a briefing in Beijing today. “Samples in some industries are very small, and accidental changes may affect overall data quality -- we were concerned that some of the numbers may affect related investors and users.”
...halt underscored concerns over China’s economic statistics, from exports inflated by false invoicing to a national unemployment rate that excludes the nation’s millions of migrant workers.
“I don’t buy NBS’s explanation -- industry-specific data has been there for years and proved very useful in reading the Chinese economy,”
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