Core Durable Goods, CapEx Both Miss; Revised Downward
Moments ago we got the latest confirmation the much delayed capital expenditures corporate spending spree - aside for airplanes ordered on spec of course - just refuses to arrive.
While the headline durable goods print rose by a modest 0.1% in August, and beat expectations of a -0.2% decline, this was offset by a prior month revision lower from -7.3% to -8.1%, in effect netting even worse for the current month, and likely resulting in even more declines in Q3 GDP tracking estimates. More importantly, when stripping away airplane orders (on spec, and which are just a function of the credit environment), durable goods declines -0.1% on expectations of a 1.0% increase, which also was the third consecutive miss in this series in a row. Finally, the two most important metric tracking pure CapEx: capital goods orders and shipments non-defense excluding aircraft, both missed expectations, rising at 1.5% vs 2.0%, and 1.3% vs Exp. 1.5%, respectively. It looks like the Fed (and all those other skeptics who called "bull" on the latest talk of a recovery) was well aware of just how bad things in the economy are, and becoming, when it decided not to taper after all.
The chart of durable goods Y/Y, with the boost driven solely by the collapse in Durable Goods a year ago.
And Core Capex shipments:
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