"90% Odds of Government Shutdown" Democrats Warn

Tyler Durden's picture

Following Nomura's estimate of a 40% chance of government shutdown yesterday, thanks to the pending vote for the Republican's "Obamacare-Delay" bill, Democrats note the odds of a shutdown of the government are now at 90%.

A Democratic congressional aide added, "the only reason I’m not putting it at 100 percent is because nothing’s certain in American politics."


As we noted previously:

From Bloomberg, citing the Japanese bank:

  • Not obvious how gap between House, Senate proposals will be closed, and time for negotiations is short, Nomura strategists led by Lewis Alexander wrote in note.
  • Shutdown for a couple of weeks won’t have much of an impact on economy; impact of failure to extend debt ceiling "unknown, potentially very large and long lasting"
  • Contentious and potentially chaotic fiscal negotiations over next few weeks likely to generate volatility, biggest threat to economy
  • If govt shuts down for one week, assuming 36% of non-postal federal employees furloughed, temporary loss of wages, benefits would reduce annualized real GDP by ~0.1ppt
  • If shutdown lasts longer, decision on back pay for federal employees likely decisive for consumption
  • Week-long shutdown would delay Oct. 4 jobs report
  • If debt ceiling becomes binding, Treasury may have to pay debts in order of due date, may not be able to prioritize debt payments

The good news, and we use the term loosely, is the flip-side: the government has a 90% chance of continuing to serve on behalf of the 1% oligarchy on October 1 and well beyond.


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Keyser's picture

It was all grand theater until Cruz gained in the polls due to his mini-filibuster and Bonehead saw the writing on the wall. If they can't stop OC, then the GOP needs to show some backbone and try to delay it a year. When Obama and Reid say they refuse to negotiate with the GOP, this is what they get. Shut the fucker down. At least the Dems can't spend $$$ we don't have if it's shuttered.


Keyser's picture

Yeah, like the fuckers on both sides of the aisle in the House and Senate would vote for that. It's not about what's good for the country anymore, it's all about politics. 

ATM's picture

You are very dangerous......... just a few people with crazy ideas like yours can infect and entire population.

Keyser's picture

The GOP has to take the Senate in 2014. Then lock Obama in the Oval Office for the last 2 years of his sentence. 


Lednbrass's picture

And if thtere were any indication at all that they would be any better than the Team Jackass scumbags it would be a good thing- but their history shows nothing of the sort. The Republican party was founded on the principle of a central government uber alles willing to kill any who object or dare want to get out of it.

Unfortunately the Elephants are every bit as bad as their "opponents".  The only benefit I can see from what you say is that because the other gang has the White House they will fight things out a bit more but it is nothing but a turf war between the political version of the Bloods and Crips.


ATM's picture

That's probably why they won't shut it down. Imagine if the the totally unthinkable happened and the Dept of Energy closed it's doors, or the Dept of Health or Homeland Security?

My God it would almost be as if it was just another day! We can't be allowed to experience life without overbearing government. We just might decide that it actually doesn't matter.

Tall Tom's picture

I agree that Obama willl not veto the Bill. This is all theater. Even he wants to delay Obamacare for a year. But he wears egg on his face to admit that publically. So he is having the Republicans work for him to do it.


"I...uh..put up the good fight but those Republicans just want to place obstacles in my way.. I reopened the Government for the Public's well being and not allow this to damage the Financial Markets." I can just hear that JERK read that off of his Teleprompter before it happens.


Both Parties work TOGETHER in TANDEM to achieve the common goal.


When you understand this then you will understand it is all theater. It is somewhat amusing and entertaining because the public buys into the illusion of DRAMA.


I hope that they shut it down for good. But then that is just wishful thinking.